THE POWER OF NOW

ON THE EVE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST LARGELY PANDEMIC-FREE YEAR IN TWO YEARS, JOHN ARLIDGE FINDS REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL IN 2022

The pandemic has prompted the most rapid innovation in tech-based mobile public health care the world has ever seen, creating unprecedented improvements in treatment and an historic opportunity to save money

History takes time. Like a long exposure photograph, it’s only now that we are seeing the full effects of the disruptions that we’ve lived through, from 9/11 two decades ago to more recent ruptures, such as Brexit. The contours of a new landscape slowly reveal themselves – blurry, at first, but, gradually, the outlines sharpen up.

Two years after the world stopped and, for many people, the good life was replaced by instability and dread, the shape of the post-Covid world is emerging and the good news is, there is good news. Crises fast forward history and that’s generating rapid shifts that will benefit us all.

In spite of the surge of the Delta variant around the world, the global economy is projected to grow 5.9 per cent in 2021, and 4.9 per cent in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As the economy grows, many sectors will change for the better. Let’s start at the beginning with the subject uppermost in everyone’s mind for the past two years.

HEALTHCARE INNOVATION The pandemic has unleashed the most rapid innovation in tech-based mobile public health care the world has ever seen. Before Covid, 80 per cent of appointments in primary care in Britain were face-to-face. They now count for almost half. “Since the start of the crisis we’ve achieved more than in the previous 20 years,” says Martin Marshall, chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners.

Remote medicine offers the hope of more convenient and cheaper healthcare. They are more efficient, freeing doctors to see more patients in a day, and studies show that they are just as effective as in-person treatments for many illnesses. At-home test kits for everything from Covid to flu are further easing the load on overburdened clinicians.

Most challenging but perhaps most exciting of all, local communities might find ways to turn the crisis into an opportunity for reform

SUSTAINABILITY RESET The clear skies – and clear lungs – under lockdown have ratcheted up the pressure on businesses and consumers to become more green. Earlier in 2021, a court in the Netherlands ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its carbon emissions faster than planned, Exxon surrendered board seats to an activist hedge fund over plans to end its dependency on oil and Chevron lost a vote to shareholders demanding that it cut emissions further.

Sustainability is showing up in some unlikely places – like the catwalk. Before the Covid-19 outbreak grounded most planes, fashion accounted for more carbon emissions than the aviation industry. More than 100 billion garments were churned out in 2019, double the number in 2000.

Some of fashion’s biggest names are beginning to act. Kering, the luxury goods behemoth that owns Gucci, and Saint Laurent, has introduced environmental profit and loss (EP&L) accounts that put a financial value on its environmental impact. “It’s important to show you can run a good business and protect people and the environment,” says Marie-Claire Daveu, Kering’s head of sustainability.

What goes for fashion, will also affect leisure. “Covid-19 is a reset for everything and everyone in travel and hospitality,” argues Brian Chesky, Airbnb’s co-founder and CEO. Morgan Stanley predicts it will be at least six years before hotel occupancy rates return to 2019 levels. The International Air Transport Association says seven years of air passenger traffic growth will be wiped out. It looks like we can possibly kiss goodbye once and for all to the third runway at Heathrow. Dubai has canned its proposed new five-runway hub – its name, World Central, now an eerie echo of an earlier soaraway era. A FAIRER DEAL Globalisation – the free flow of goods, services and people across national boundaries – seemed to be the unstoppable, irreversible wealth creation story of our times. It no longer looks so efficient to rely on imports for half the food we eat and most of the ventilators and other equipment health services need. That will mean ‘reshoring’ jobs for many countries: a welcome boost to many workers who have lost out during lockdown.

With a bit of luck and investor pressure, labour practices will improve. If the pandemic has exposed anything, it is how dependent we are on the ‘back office’ of society – cleaners, delivery drivers, supermarket shelfstackers, many of whom are among the lowest paid in the country, often on zero-hours or gig contracts. Jim Chanos, the famed US investor who has an uncanny ability to see around financial corners, is betting against companies that rely on gig workers, such as Uber, because he thinks the pandemic will change social and political attitudes towards their workers, forcing the companies to offer them employee-style benefits. The High Court in London recently ruled that under English law Uber drivers are workers, not freelance contractors, and are, therefore, entitled to many of the benefits of employees, including the minimum wage.

Global taxation might become a bit fairer. Joe Biden, US President, earlier in 2021 took advantage of the disquiet over the way tax-avoiding tech giants profited during lockdowns, to drive through an agreement among OECD countries to levy a minimum 15 per cent tax on multinational companies. The reforms should ensure companies pay more tax and more of it in countries where they generate huge revenues.

TACKLING CONNECTIVITY Technology is improving our lives in other ways. With hybrid home/office working firmly established and welcomed by most, Silicon Valley is transforming offices for the better. To deal with the new blend of remote and office workers, Google is creating a new meeting room technology, called Campfire, where in-person attendees sit in a circle interspersed with vertical displays showing the people dialling in by videoconference with the same prominence as those there in real life. (Only upper bodies are displayed, so if you are remote, you can continue to wear sweatpants.)

The Silicon Valley giants are raising their own game, too. Many social media firms have done a poor job of protecting our privacy and tackling bad actors. But after years claiming it is oh-so-difficult to weed out harmful content, many platforms have successfully blocked much misinformation about the pandemic and vaccines. Twitter, which has a base of about 350 million users, removed 2.9 million tweets in the second half of 2019, more than double a year earlier. Google has been blocking 18 million misleading or malicious messages to Gmail users every day. WhatsApp, owned by Facebook, imposed a new limit on the number of people who can be forwarded messages to slow the spread of scams and fake news. With a bit of luck, and beefed up regulation, this will continue. Facebook’s removal of hate speech has risen tenfold in two years. Last year, the company disabled 17 million fake accounts every single day, more than twice the number of 2017. RESETTING Most exciting of all, the pandemic has led many to re-evaluate what they want from jobs and lives. Americans are quitting their jobs in higher numbers than at any point since the turn of the millennium. Forty per cent of employees in the US, Australia, the UK, Canada, and Singapore say they are at least “somewhat likely” to quit within six months, a McKinsey report showed [Sept 2021]. Two-thirds are ready to go without a new job in hand.

Rather than insufficient pay packets, the top three answers people mentioned when jumping ship were feeling undervalued by their organisations, or not feeling like they belonged. On the ground, executives say staff are looking to restore their work-life balance to something more manageable.

Some things will remain different and difficult, no doubt. Face furniture is a stubborn fixture. No paper menus – still! Questions remain. How do we greet each other without causing offence? What impact will a cultural reset have on business? What will industry look like now that working habits are changing? There are certainly plenty of unknowns, but the human race is resilient and, just as we’ve done many times before, we’ll pick ourselves up and continue to push forward as we embrace and thrive under this new normal.

Warren Buffett recently said: “We were just as sure of ourselves, and Wall Street was, in 1989 as we are today. But the world can change in very, very dramatic ways.” In life, it’s all about the journey. As Buffett said: “the main thing to do is be aboard the ship”. So, let’s pour a glass more than half full and raise it to a happy – healthy – 2022.

The Numbers

IN BRITAIN 7,000 GP PRACTICES

WERE ORDERED TO CONDUCT AS MANY VIDEO AND PHONE CONSULTATIONS AS POSSIBLE

GOOGLE HAS BEEN BLOCKING 18 MILLION MISLEADING OR MALICIOUS MESSAGES

TO GMAIL USERS EVERY DAY

GLOBAL TAXATION MIGHT BECOME A BIT FAIRER. MINIMUM 15% TAX

ON MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES

THE PRODUCTION OF FASHION GARMENTS WERE HALVED

IN 2000 COMPARED TO 2019

World Class

TRAVEL THE GLOBE TO THE MOST EXOTIC PORTS AND UNTOUCHED DESTINATIONS WITHOUT EVER LEAVING HOME

Captivating around-the-clock views; remote ports of call and a home away from home. The World, the only residential ship of its kind, offers a private yacht and luxury vacation residence all in one – and is appealing to the shifting ideals of the luxury traveller with its enriching expeditions and exclusive lifestyle onboard.

RESIDENCES AT SEA The World may be the largest residential ship in the world, but the intimate atmosphere onboard is more akin to being on your very own private super yacht. With an average of 150 to 200 residents, The World has only 165 residences, ranging from studio to three-bedroom apartments, offering the utmost exclusivity and privacy – the new premium in luxury travel. Demand is so high for The World’s permanent residences at sea, in fact, that there are currently waiting lists to join the international community onboard. With their very own furniture, wardrobes – and even art collections – onboard, residents of The World always have a luxurious home to return to after a day’s exploration. All they have to do is board at their chosen port, without the hassle of unpacking, and journey for as long as they wish.

SEE THE WORLD With remote travel on the rise, and the luxury traveller eager to travel further than before, residents and guests yearning for adventure will find their wanderlust sated with The World’s spectacular 2022 itinerary, which begins in San Diego, California, on New Year’s Day, and finishes in Dubai on New Year’s Eve. The World

will escort residents to some of the most raw and untouched parts of the globe, including journeying to the world’s most beloved destinations across North America, South America, the South Pacific, Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Two rare 15-day back-to-back expeditions, led by teams of local and world-renowned experts, allow residents to explore with even more depth than they ever thought possible: the first in the Tuamotu Archipelago and the Marquesas of French Polynesia, followed by a second among the fascinating people and natural wonder of the Austral Islands. Later in the journey, the third expedition visits the land of fire and ice to discover the captivating raw beauty of Iceland.

LIFE ONBOARD The World is truly a melting pot of different cultures: a diverse group of more than 150 residents from 20 countries own the homes onboard and have a thirst for knowledge, adventure and travel. The in-depth expeditions and one-of-a-kind experiences residents select are complemented by anticipatory and impeccable service customised to their preferences. Residents also benefit from worldclass amenities and facilities, including impeccable culinary mastery in six restaurants, exceptional golf facilities with onboard putting greens, the only full-size, regulation tennis court at sea, swimming pools, a spa and a fitness centre complete with personal trainers. A truly unique and exclusive lifestyle that exists nowhere else on earth.

To learn more about ownership opportunities and the unique residential lifestyle of this one-of-a-kind yacht, please visit aboardtheworld.com