RnR Market Research Offers “Germany, Iran and Kuwait Power Report Q4 2012”Report at US$ 1175 (Single User License). The report got published in Oct 2012. Germany Power Report Q4 2012 From this quarter BMI’s Power service will focus chiefly on thermal sources, hydropower and nuclear electricity, while developments pertinent to the green segment will be discussed in depth by our Renewables service. That said, we continue to provide a detailed overview of the dynamics affecting the power sector. Despite a year having passed since the German government’s U-turn on nuclear power, the country is still looking for an appropriate strategy that will provide sufficient electricity. Such a strategy must also allow the country to respect its carbon emissions commitments and limit price rises. While natural gas appears likely to be the replacement fuel from an environmental perspective, cheap coal remains the most profitable way to produce electricity. On the greener side of the power spectrum, Germany has retained its position as Europe’s bellwether for renewable energy, but not without controversy – owing primarily to the high costs associated with the deployment of these technologies.
Key trends and recent developments in the German electricity market include: - News that consumers, utilities and members of the German government are beginning to voice concerns about the associated costs of Germany’s energy U-turn reconfirms our view that the new energy agenda presents a significant financial burden to the country. With the nuclear phase-out already weakening German utilities, the enormous cost of incorporating renewable energy into the electricity mix is unsustainable, unless domestic electricity prices are increased substantially. - We have revised our forecast to take into account larger-than-expected coal usage. While natural gas appears to be the most likely replacement fuel from an environmental perspective, cheap coal remains a more profitable way to produce electricity in the country. On June 28 2012, the Bundestag approved cuts to incentives for the solar power industry that were milder and more watered down than expected. Following an agreement reached with the help of a mediation committee, plans to introduce a 90% limit on incentives for larger solar power plants of over 10 kilowatts (KW) were dropped, and will instead be introduced in 2014. - Delays in connecting wind farms to the power grid – as well as grid outages after the plants have started operations – are jeopardising Germany’s ambitious offshore wind target. Whilst the quick implementation of new liability regulations could play a role in restoring economic viability in the short-term, we remain of the opinion that a more comprehensive plan of investment in the country’s grid will be key for the successful integration of offshore wind power into the mix. Buy your copy of Germany Power Industry Market Report @ http://www.rnrmarketresearch.com/germany-power-report-q4-2012-market-report.html
Iran Power Report Q4 2012 Plans to develop Iran’s nuclear capacity are central to the country’s power industry and its ability to meet its energy requirements. Given huge international resistance, there is no certainty of continuing nuclear availability, let alone additional reactors. Efforts to halt the nuclear programme will persist and sanctions will make it hard to
maintain a high level of investment. Iran would benefit from more rapid development of its renewables potential as a means of reducing oil and gas dependency. Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation, with many of the power projects that are currently under construction due to use gas. Expansion of Iran’s nuclear capacity is planned, but external political resistance means it is far from certain whether further reactors will be built. Talks continue with the aim of ending the stalemate but, at the time of writing, no breakthrough was imminent.
Key trends and recent developments in the Iranian electricity market include: - Majid Salehi, the managing director of Iran Power Development Company, has revealed that around 23 new power plants will begin production by the end of the government’s tenure in the next Iranian year, starting March 2013. Investment of approximately IRR50trn will be required for the projects, which will be developed as part of the energy ministry’s Mehr Mandegar programme. The 648MW Kermanshah Power Plant will be the first to start production, while the gas-fired units of the Zanjan, Semnan and Shahround power plants should become operational in the coming months. The ministry has granted permits for the private sector construction of renewable energy power plants, with a combined production capacity of 12 gigawatts (GW), according to Iran Renewable Energy Organisation’s Managing Director, Yousef Armodeli. - In late May 2012, Iran’s government terminated a contract that was awarded to China for the construction of the Bakhtiari hydropower plant in the south west of the country, according to Energy Minister Majid Namjou. China’s proposed US$2bn financial package for the 1,500 megawatt (MW) plant was rejected by the Iranian Central Bank, with the project now being awarded to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya. The cancellation of the contract could have an adverse impact on the economic relationship between China and Iran. - During the period 2012-2021, Iran’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.47%, to 275.9 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is the build-up of output from the country’s first nuclear power facility, which was connected to the grid in 2012 and should be generating power on a commercial scale before the end of 2012. Nonhydro renewables are expected to deliver average annual supply growth of 4.43%. - With Iran’s 2012 real GDP expected to have decreased by 1.2%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 2.4% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 75.6mn to 81.5mn during the period to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 176.6TWh to 228.7TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.60%. - Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation, growth of which falls somewhat short of the underlying demand trend, Iran’s power supply surplus is likely to stagnate over the medium term, although the country is keen to develop its power export capability. A decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses from an estimated 17.3% to 16.3% will help balance the market. The estimated net export capability in 2021 is put at 3.2TWh. Buy your copy of Colombia’s power sector Market Report @ http://www.rnrmarketresearch.com/iranpower-report-q4-2012-market-report.html
Kuwait Power Report Q4 2012
Kuwait is likely to remain dependent almost exclusively on oil and gas for its energy needs for the foreseeable future. Following the 2011 Fukushima tragedy in Japan, nuclear energy has largely dropped out of usage, while renewable energy remains only a very minor segment of the country’s energy mix. Much of the planned new generating capacity is gas-fired, with oil often used as a back-up fuel. The aim is to make more of the country’s oil available for export, even if this leads to a growing reliance on imported gas. Hints at a major renewables programme have yet to convince industry insiders. Low power costs mean that project economics are unlikely to attract foreign investors, so Kuwait looks set to go it alone in meeting growing power demand.
Conventional thermal sources are likely to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years. Following the Fukushima tragedy in 2011, Kuwait has ordered the National Nuclear Energy Committee to be dissolved and has officially announced that it will abandon the pursuit of civil nuclear power. However, the country is nevertheless aiming to reduce its domestic oil consumption in an effort to free up additional barrels for export, with many power projects that are planned or under construction due to use gas. The electricity and water ministry wishes to more than double generating and desalination capacity by 2017 and an estimated US$2.5bn is expected to be invested over the medium term to cater for the projected power demand until 2015. Renewables could become part of the solution, particularly given the vast solar potential of the desert state, though there has been minimal progress made thus far. Key developments for Kuwait electricity market: - Kuwait is aiming to generate 10% of its electricity from sustainable sources by 2020, according to Eyad Ali alFalah, assistant undersecretary for technical services at the Ministry of Electricity and Water. To meet its clean energy target, which is among the most ambitious in the region, Kuwait next must gather data on hours of sunshine and wind speeds. - Over the 2012-2021 period, Kuwait’s power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.1%, reaching 74.6 terrawatt hours (TWh). Gains in gas and oil-fired electricity are set to drive this growth, with other sources of energy unlikely to feature heavily over the medium term. - Following an estimated 5.7% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.4% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from 2.89mn in 2012 to 3.45mn by 2021, with net power consumption to increase from 46.1TWh to 65.3TWh over the same period. - Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, the forecast growth of which slightly outpaces the underlying demand trend, Kuwait could end up with a shrinking longer-term power supply shortfall. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses from an estimated 13.2% in 2011 to 12.5% in 2021 should help balance the market. - The construction of new power projects in Kuwait has been beset by persistent delays, largely owing to a highly inefficient political process. In May 2010, for instance, the government approved a 1.5GW (gigawatts) power project at al-Zour that would be the first in Kuwait to involve private-sector investment. However, delays during the tendering process – caused in the main by political gridlock in parliament – have seen the project fall significantly behind schedule, and it is unclear when construction will be completed. Buy your copy of Kuwait Power Report @ http://www.rnrmarketresearch.com/kuwait-power-report-q42012-market-report.html