CONNECTICUT
2010 FIRST QUARTER COVERING FAIRFIELD COUNTY, LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE CONNNECTICUT SHORELINE
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH
introduction
T
REAL ESTATE MARKET WATCH
he new decade is heralding a revitalization of our Connecticut real estate market. Home sales are improving steadily. We are confident that the worst is behind us, and expect our markets to continue to stabilize during the balance of this year. Unit sales and dollar volume for the first quarter of 2010 are significantly ahead of the same period in 2009, and are on track with the stronger performance posted in 2008. After finishing the worst twelve month period in modern real estate history, it is encouraging to see our markets continue the recovery that began in the second half of 2009. Prices remain considerably below their historic highs, but the rapid pace of price erosion has slowed. As sales volume increases, prices are clearly stabilizing. Our local real estate markets are being driven by pent-up demand, supported by an improving economic picture. While the financial world paused, families’ lives did not; babies were born, employees were transferred and family configurations changed. All of these factors provide impetus for people to buy and sell homes. Over the past year, many sellers opted not to list their homes for sale, expecting that the market would turn around and they would see a return to the price levels they had come to expect at market highs. Today, however, there is new found realism, and home owners who want to move on are ready to sell again at current market prices. This acceptance of new, lower price points, together with improved confidence, is bringing buyers back into the market. The wait and see attitude of 2009 is shifting to a sentiment that “now is a great time to buy”. We continue to experience a sluggish luxury segment although it, too, is showing burgeoning signs of renewed life. The conservatism that is currently present in every aspect of daily life continues to impact these highly discretionary properties. However, for those unique properties that represent extraordinary opportunity, there are buyers stepping forward. It is interesting that most luxury sales stay on the market for only a few days before going under contract at the present time, reflecting the strong value buyers place on unique opportunities. For clients, our 2009 acquisitions of Julia B. Fee, the pre-eminent Westchester County real estate firm, and Litchfield Hills Sotheby’s, the top brokerage in the Litchfield County area, have been extremely beneficial. Our buyers are now able to explore properties from New York City through Fairfield County and the Shoreline, as well as up into the vacation and retirement communities of Litchfield County, seamlessly through one single firm. Our sellers have new markets opened to them for direct representation of their homes in very strong feeder communities. The consistent delivery, and shared systems among all of our offices has already resulted in several luxury home transactions on properties about which our agents and managers in other locations might not have known had we not been one single firm. For the balance of 2010 and beyond, we will continue to strengthen this sharing of information and resources to ensure that all of our clients insist that they only be represented by Sotheby’s International Realty. I hope you find our analysis of the first quarter results of 2010 helpful as you evaluate your personal real estate holdings. As always, if we can be of assistance at any time or from any place, please contact me. With best regards, ,
Paul E. Breunich President and Chief Executive Officer William Pitt | Litchfield Hills | Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International Realty pbreunich@wpsir.com
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH UPSURGE IN PENDING SALES Pending Home Sales Fairfield County 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-10
On the national level in March, the biggest month over month sales increase was in the Midwest, where pending sales rose by nearly 22 percent. Sales posted gains of 9 percent in the South and Northeast, but fell nearly 5 percent in the West. 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
60
# Units
45 40 35 30 25 20 Mar-09
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-10
Feb
Mar
January 2010 - March 2010
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
January 2010 - March 2010
Consumer Confidence Index 50
Mar-10
Pending Home Sales Litchfield County
Following the positive pending sales trend from the fourth quarter of 2009, closed sales for the first quarter of 2010 demonstrated continued improvement. In comparison to an
55
Feb-10
Pending Home Sales The Shoreline
# Units
Supporting the very strong March sales figures is improving buyer confidence. The Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 52.5 (1985=100), up from 46.4 in February. The Present Situation Index, which measures consumer sentiment toward the current business, employment and economic conditions, increased to 26.0 from 21.7. The Expectations Index, which measures consumer sentiment projecting forward for the next six months, improved to 70.2 from 62.9 last month. Consumer attitudes will continue to have a marked effect on home buying, and caution about the state of the economy may limit the strength of the housing recovery over the near term.
January 2010 - March 2010
900
# Units
Pending home sales in the majority of Connecticut markets have risen for three straight months, achieving their highest levels in two years. The March 2010 data was particularly impressive, with pending sales in some markets up over 150% from March 2009. This spring surge in home sales is in response to increased buyer confidence, the home buyer tax credit, stabilizing employment figures, and favorable housing market conditions. Low prices and low interest rates are powerful motivators to buyers who, for some time, have been watching the market from the sidelines. The healthy spring sales gains, coupled with strong home sales data from the second half of 2009, are hopeful signs that inventory levels will continue to decline. As inventory levels move into equilibrium, home prices will stabilize further.
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jan-10
Feb-10
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Mar-10
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH Single Family Home Closed Sales 2008-2010 Fairfield County TOWN
Fairfield County Bethel Danbury Darien Easton Fairfield Greenwich Monroe New Canaan New Fairfield Newtown Norwalk Redding Ridgefield Rowayton Shelton Stamford Stratford Trumbull Wilton Weston Westport
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2010
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2009
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2008
719 19 57 21 4 65 26 26 10 14 40 68 8 28 8 35 60 68 37 14 9 28
982 20 75 38 15 106 97 27 33 26 45 65 17 47 7 55 80 101 51 26 16 47
1016 18 66 37 14 108 93 19 26 27 50 93 10 36 3 50 98 82 58 22 25 55
exceptionally low 2009 sales base, almost every market showed double and triple digit percentage sales increases. 2010 first quarter home sales levels were in line with the stronger performance seen in 2008, but remain 30-40% below the same period in 2007, at the height of the market. Connecticut’s three most prominent market areas; Fairfield County, The Shoreline and Litchfield County, all experienced this same positive sales momentum. In Fairfield County single family closed sales were up 41% in units and 54% in dollar value. While each individual market has its own nuances, all showed positive signs of increased stabilization except for Rowayton. Rowayton is a beautiful section of Norwalk with its own zip code, lovely beaches and a quaint downtown. This small, upscale community was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the housing boom, with prices rising exponentially. However, Rowayton has been slower to recover than its neighboring communities because of its selective buyer profile. Sales in the first quarter of 2010 declined 62% from 2009. Overall, the Fairfield County real estate market is beginning to show steady improvement, as calm and rational thinking returns. Many Fairfield County buyers relocate from Manhattan and nearby Westchester County. In Manhattan, crowded public schools, coupled with
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009
41% -5% 16% 76% 250% 66% 258% -27% 160% 93% 25% 37% 25% 29% -62% 43% 63% 21% 57% 57% 178% 96%
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
3% -10% -12% -3% -7% 2% -4% -30% -21% 4% 11% 43% -41% -23% -57% -9% 22% -19% 14% -15% 56% 17%
a 40-60% required down payment on apartments, are driving buyers to Connecticut. Buyers from Westchester County are crossing the state line to escape high tax rates and prohibitive closing costs. In the Shoreline communities, the housing boom was not as strong, and the resultant decline not as painful as in Fairfield County. This more modulated market, with its broader economic base and lower reliance on Wall Street, posted a healthy 27% increase in single family home sales in the first quarter of 2010 in comparison to 2009, yet remained 10% below the same period in 2008. Litchfield County, primarily a second home and retirement market, is typically not a vibrant sales market in the winter months. However, in the first quarter of 2010, unit sales were up a strong 26%.These positive first quarter closed sales, coupled with improvements in pending sales figures, are indicative of a market that is also stabilizing from its lows.The good weather in April and May should further induce weekend visitors to buoy this market into the spring and summer months. Browse all MLS listings and learn more about the market
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH Single Family Home Closed Sales 2008-2010 The Shoreline Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2010
TOWN
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2009
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2008
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
The Shoreline
314
247
349
27%
10%
Branford
23
19
31
21%
-26% -57%
Chester
3
5
7
-40%
Clinton
24
17
22
41%
9%
East Lyme
14
11
12
27%
17%
Essex, Ivoryton
8
4
12
100%
-32%
Groton
23
13
20
77%
15%
Guilford
37
34
34
9%
9%
Killingworth
5
8
19
-38%
-74%
Lyme, Old Lyme
18
10
16
80%
12%
Madison
47
33
34
42%
38%
New London
19
24
21
-21%
-10%
Old Saybrook
20
17
28
18%
-29%
Stonington
11
14
11
-21%
0
Waterford
23
21
24
10%
-4%
Westbrook
7
5
12
40%
-42%
Single Family Home Closed Sales 2008-2010 Litchfield County TOWN
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2010
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2009
Single Family Home Closed Units 1ST QTR 2008
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009
Single Family Home Closed Units Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
178
141
198
26%
-10%
0
1
1
0
0
Barkhamsted
2
6
7
-67%
-71%
Bethlehem
4
3
5
33%
-20%
Bridgewater
0
1
1
0
0
Canaan
0
0
1
0
0
Colebrook
3
4
2
-25%
50%
Cornwall, W. Cornwall, Cornwall Bridge
0
1
2
0
0
Falls Village
3
0
2
0
50%
Goshen
6
3
10
100%
-40%
Harwinton
8
6
2
33%
300%
Kent, South Kent
4
3
6
33%
-33%
5
6
6
-17%
-17%
13
9
12
44%
8%
Morris
4
2
3
100%
33%
Norfolk
4
0
2
0
100%
Roxbury
6
2
8
200%
-25%
Sharon
8
2
7
300%
14%
Warren
4
1
0
300%
400%
Washington, Washington Depot, New Preston
6
2
5
200%
20%
12
6
16
100%
-25%
Litchfield County Bantam
Lakeville, Salisbury Litchfield, Milton
Woodbury
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH HOME PRICES SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF STRENGTH BUT CAN THEY BE SUSTAINED? For the first quarter of 2010, median price levels demonstrated improvement over the first quarter of 2009, with Fairfield County median prices up 9%, the Shoreline up 11%, and Litchfield County up 6%. More impressive is that Fairfield County has experienced five consecutive months of median sale price level improvement, beginning in November 2009. The Shoreline and Litchfield County communities experienced similar levels of improvement for three of the past five months. All markets saw an improvement in the
March median price numbers, correlating directly to the surge in March sales activity throughout the region. Despite these improving statistics, prices remain well below their peak levels of earlier in the decade, with Fairfield County median sale prices in the first quarter of 2010 thirty-one percent below their peak, Litchfield County twenty-eight percent below its peak, and the Shoreline nineteen percent below its peak level.While median sold prices remain soft in comparison to prices at the
Single Family Home Price Change 2008-2010 Fairfield County Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2010
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2009
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2008
$409,950
$375,000
$465,000
9%
-12%
Bethel
327,000
285000
376,000
15%
-13%
Danbury
257,000
302,000
335,000
-15%
-23%
Darien
1,400,000
1,030,000
1,322,000
36%
6%
Easton
619,000
458,000
905,000
35%
-32%
Fairfield
527,000
485,000
570,000
9%
-7%
1,337,500
1,806,250
1,975,000
-26%
-32%
423,000
384,000
400,000
10%
6%
New Canaan
1,506,250
1,587,500
1,600,000
-5%
-6%
New Fairfield
320,000
340,000
380,000
6%
-16%
Newtown
415,000
500,000
430,000
-17%
-3%
Norwalk
380,000
444,000
505,000
-14%
-25%
Redding
669,000
505,000
665,000
32%
1%
Ridgefield
669,000
654,000
755,000
2%
-11%
Rowayton
635,000
1,138,000
1,500,000
-44%
-58%
Shelton
340,000
311,000
402,000
9%
-15%
Stamford
552,000
561,000
674,000
-2%
-18%
Stratford
241,000
249,000
268,000
-3%
-10%
Trumbull
369,000
352,000
392,000
5%
-6%
Wilton
756,000
650,000
900,000
16%
-16%
Weston
772,000
830,000
978,000
-7%
-21%
Westport
933,000
1,275,000
1,339,000
-27%
-30%
TOWN
Fairfield County
Greenwich Monroe
YOY Change Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009
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YOY Change Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH height of the market, the rapid erosion in value seen over the past year has slowed, as sales improve and inventory is absorbed. It must be noted that there are a number of factors currently impacting sales, and call into question whether the price stabilization we began to experience in the latter half of 2009 can be sustained through the balance of 2010. One of the biggest drags on this stabilitization is the continued prevalence of short sales and foreclosures. As these distressed properties continue to appear in the marketplace, they may cause further price erosion, particularly as most markets already have bloated inventory levels. The jobs outlook is another potential cause for concern. Unemployment in Connecticut is at 9.1%, and New York City is at 10.4% of the workforce. These levels remain higher than the levels most economists forecast for
the peak of unemployment, and suggest that potential buyers may not have the funds nor confidence to purchase a new home. The third significant concern is the March 31, 2010 termination of the Fed’s policy to purchase mortgage-backed securities. Already, in response, interest rates are beginning to inch up, raising the cost of home purchase in an already fragile market. Finally, the first-time homebuyer tax credits will expire on April 30, at which point an assessment of their impact on the markets can begin. Bob Shiller, co-creator of the S&P Case-Shiller Index, thinks the odds are 50%-50% of slipping back into a period of home price decline. He recently told Business Week, “Double dips are rare. When prices go up, they tend to go up for years. . . . Whereas if they start going down, they’ll go down for years. We saw home prices decline between
Single Family Home Price Change 2008-2010 The Shoreline Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2010
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2009
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2008
$330,000
$298,000
$350,000
11%
-6%
Branford
300,000
382000
315,000
-21%
-5%
Chester
230,000
330,000
320,000
-30%
-28%
Clinton
260,000
275,000
295,000
-5%
-12%
Essex, Ivoryton
392,000
290,000
416,000
35%
-16%
Groton
154,350
160,000
187,000
6%
-17%
Guilford
350,000
407,000
490,000
-14%
-29%
East Lyme
326,000
252,000
494,000
29%
-34%
Killingworth
260,000
413,000
393,000
-37%
-34%
Lyme, Old Lyme
468,000
482,000
316,000
-3%
-34%
Madison
445,000
575,000
467,000
-23%
48%
New London
133,500
147,000
185,000
-9%
-5%
Old Saybrook
316,250
298,000
425,000
6%
-28%
Stonington
463,000
512,000
541,000
-10%
-26%
Waterford
$265,000
222,000
261,000
19%
-14%
Westbrook
$381,000
315,000
$372,000
21%
2%
TOWN
The Shoreline
YOY Change Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009
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YOY Change Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH have relocated, and have had events take place in their lives that require a housing change, but have waited to do so, in many cases, due to a lack of confidence or unrealistic expectations on pricing. The economy is also in significantly better shape than it was two years ago. While we believe the housing recovery will be modulated, we do think the fundamentals are in place for the recovery to continue and for prices to stabilize further. Prices in markets with continuing excess inventory could fall another five to ten percent before stabilizing, while prices in more robust markets could actually enjoy modest gains of between one and two percent.
2006 and 2009 -- three years of decline. And now that the market is trending up . . . it’s perfectly plausible to think we’ll have three more years of increases. But I’m not so sure. . . . We’re in such an unusual economy that [a double dip] has substantial probability.” It will be very obvious by early summer where the market stands on prices. The aggressive government intervention in the market will have worked its way through the system by that time, and we will know if the markets can stand on their own without support. We anticipate that they will be able to do so, because in the two years since the housing collapse, life has not been put on hold for most families. People have had children,
Single Family Home Price Change 2008-2010 Litchfield County Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2010
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2009
Median Sales Price 1ST QTR 2008
$227,500
$214,000
$315,000
6%
-28%
0
230,000
195,000
0
0
Barkhamsted
337,000
284,000
360,000
19%
-6%
Bethlehem
253,950
278,000
400,000
-8%
-37%
Bridgewater
0
515,000
325,000
0
0
Canaan
0
0
300,000
0
0
150,000
244,000
398,000
-39%
-62%
0
210,000
488,000
0
0
Falls Village
268,000
0
189,000
0
42%
Goshen
278,500
341,000
395,000
-18%
-29%
Harwinton
206,500
245,000
266,000
-16%
-22%
Kent, South Kent
688,175
1,100,000
690,000
-37%
0
Lakeville, Salisbury
705,000
438,000
606,000
61%
16%
Litchfield, Milton
217,500
405,000
375,000
-46%
-42%
Morris
268,500
253,000
265,000
6%
1%
Norfolk
377,000
0
168,000
0
124%
Roxbury
1,087,500
800,000
632,000
36%
72%
Sharon
872,500
324,500
430,000
169%
103%
Warren
472,500
260,000
0
82%
0
Washington, Washington Depot, New Preston
955,000
246,000
1,330,000
288%
-28%
Woodbury
354,000
500,000
427,000
-29%
-17%
TOWN
Litchfield County Bantam
Colebrook Cornwall, W. Cornwall, Cornwall Bridge
YOY Change YOY Change Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009 Q1 2010 VS Q1 2008
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH SALES ARE MIGRATING TO THE MID-PRICE SEGMENT In the first quarter of 2010, the entry segments continued to drive market activity. Compared to the first quarter of 2009, sales volume is up 20% or more. Importantly, inventory levels are moving into greater balance, with contracted sales of up to 26% of available home inventory versus 13-17% one year ago. In some markets the lack of significant inventory has resulted in bidding contests among multiple buyers. Additionally, the residual inventory number has declining substantially, confirming that inventory is being absorbed – a critical factor in stabilizing the markets. In the latter half of 2009 we began to see a sales migration up through the mid price categories.This trend has continued to gain momentum in all markets.We now see the mid-range accounting for up to 33% of total sales.This represents a marked improvement from last year. For the luxury segment of the market, 2009 was the most difficult year in over a decade, and real challenges remain in terms of a reduced buyer pool, limited jumbo mortgage financing and a profound attitudinal shift where bigger is not
necessarily better. However, at the end of the first quarter of 2010, we are seeing increased activity of the very top end of the luxury market.This is a direct result of stock market increases and the improved confidence affluent consumers have in the economy in general, and in real estate in particular. Sales to-date have been for one of a kind properties defined unique location, style and condition. Importantly, the mindset of the luxury buyer has changed dramatically. Having lived through the worst economic time in our country since the Great Depression, today’s affluent consumer remains very cautious.This buyer is “looking at the whole value proposition”, evaluating how a property enhances his/her life and what it will cost in terms of both time and dollars. Says Mike Good, CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC, “2010 is going to be a slow process of coming out of this recession.We’re going to see more stabilization in the coming year,” and therefore a higher level of confidence. As confidence and conditions improve, we anticipate more affluent buyers in the market, further improving this segment.
Closed Sales By Price Point Fairfield County PRICE TIER
0 - $799,999 $800,000 - 1,499,999 $1,500,000 - 2,999,999 $3,000,000 - 4,999,999 $5,000,000+
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2010
81% 14% 4% 1% >1%
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2009 Sales
86% 9% 4% 1% >1%
Closed Sales Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
34% 109% 43% 12% *150%
Median Price Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
6% -9% -10% -5% -1%
Percent Under Contract 1ST QTR 2010
26% 17% 12% 6% 6%
Percent Under Percent Under Contract DaysDays on on Contract Market 1ST QTR 2009 Market 1 QTR 2009
12% 6% 4% 2% 5%
94 119 154 203 207 * very small sales base
Closed Sales By Price Point The Shoreline PRICE TIER
0 - $399,999 $400,000 - 749,999 $750,000 - 1,499,999 $1,500,000+
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2010
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2009 Sales
Closed Sales Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
Median Price Change 1Q 2010 VS 1 QTR 2009
Percent Under Contract 1ST QTR 2010
65% 27% 6% 2%
66% 23% 10% 1%
20% 41% 32% 200%
2% -3% 1% -7%
23% 16% 7% 4%
Percent Under Under Contract Percent DaysDays on on Contract 1ST QTR 2009 Market Market 1 QTR 2009
17% 9% 5% 4%
96 108 136 112
Closed Sales By Price Point Litchfield County PRICE TIER
0 - 499,999 $500,000 - 999,999 $1,000,000 - 2,499,999 $2,500,000+
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2010
Percent of Sales 1ST QTR 2009 Sales
Closed Sales Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
81% 10% 4% 5%
89% 8% 3% >1%
20% 90% 60% 350%
Median Price Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
-2% 1% -7% 23%
Percent Under Contract 1ST QTR 2010
18% 6% 8% 8%
Percent Under on on Percent Under Contract DaysDays Contract Market 1ST QTR 2009 Market 1 QTR 2009
13% 3% 3% 3%
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH JANUARY 2010 WAS THE TURNING POINT FOR CONDOMINIUM SALES
First Quarter 2009 - First Quarter 2010
1100
+82%
1000 900
# Units
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Condominium Pending Sales The Shoreline
# Units
In comparison to the first quarter of 2009, 2010 first quarter prices in both the Shoreline and Litchfield County communities showed a slight increase of 4%, while in Fairfield County they declined a further 4%. Similar to single family homes, condominium prices remain significantly below their peak levels. In Fairfield County, where condominium sales have been slower to improve, median prices remain at 23% below the peak. On the Shoreline they are 17%, and in Litchfield County are16% below peak levels. There is no indication that prices will not decline further despite the improvement in sales, because the condominium market is still plagued with excess inventory and challenging financing options due to the strict FHA lending standards for condominiums.
Condominium Pending Sales Fairfield County
First Quarter 2009 - First Quarter 2010
260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
+64%
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Condominium Pending Sales Litchfield County
# Units
January 2010 marked the turning point for a market that had been in the doldrums for over two years. After a prolonged period of rising inventory levels, sales reached their nadir in December 2009 and have posted solid month over month gains since that time. As buyers started to selectively pick those properties considered most desirable, sales levels were higher in 2009 than in 2008 in most markets. In comparison to the first quarter of 2009, 2010 first quarter closed sales improved 25% in Fairfield County, 60% along the Shoreline, and 39% in Fairfield County. This accompanied a modest decline in inventory levels due to the moratorium on condominium development for the past several years. In all markets, March was the strongest month for condominium sales in recent memory, with a substantial jump in pending sales of both resale and new units.
First Quarter 2009 - First Quarter 2010
75 70 65 60 55 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
+78%
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH
Condominium Closed Sales Fairfield County 1ST QTR 2010 Closed Sales
Total
312
1ST QTR 2009 Closed Sales
250
Closed Sales % Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
1ST QTR 2010 Median Sales Price
1 QTR 2009 Median Sales Price
Median Price % Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
Inventory Level Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
25%
$232,500
$242,250
-4%
-7%
Condominium Closed Sales The Shoreline
Total
1ST QTR 2010 Closed Sales
1ST QTR 2009 Closed Sales
Closed Sales % Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
1ST QTR 2010 Median Sales Price
1ST QTR 2009 Median Sales Price
Median Price % Change 1Q 2010 VS 1Q 2009
Inventory Level Change 1Q 2010 VS 1 Q12009
93
59
60%
$176,500
$169,000
4%
-4%
The factors challenging this market remain in place. Particularly for luxury priced condominiums, the fact that the bulk of the traditional buyer pool, people downsizing, have been unable sell their homes remains a significant impediment. There is, however, an increased level of optimism as we go to press. Agents report their condominium listings being shown more frequently than in prior months, but most buyers still will need to sell before they can buy.
now experiencing some early signs of life for new construction, but it is too soon to tell if sales will gain and hold momentum. We are optimistic that the worst is behind us for the condominium market. Inventory is beginning to be absorbed, and we will skim along the bottom for a prolonged period as markets begin to re-energize. In the meantime, buyers continue to have the advantage.
New construction remains the slowest segment of the market. From late 2008 through mid 2009, there was essentially no market for this property type. We are
Condominium Closed Sales Litchfield County 1ST QTR 2010 Closed Sales
Total
25
1ST QTR 2009 Closed Sales
18
Closed Sales % Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
1ST QTR 2010 Median Sales Price
1ST QTR 2009 Median Sales Price
Median Price % Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
Inventory Level Change 1Q 2010 VS Q1 2009
39%
$137,500
$132,500
4%
-7%
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2010 FIRST QUARTER MARKET WATCH
where we are headed...
Listed exclusively by William Pitt Sotheby’s International Realty Essex Brokerage
Although sales have been higher in our markets for eight straight months, the housing recovery remains fragile. We believe that the bottom has been reached in most housing markets in Connecticut and its surrounding areas, with bargain hunters aplenty looking for a good deal at which to “buy right” - a classic buyers market where opportunities abound for the qualified buyer. Continued historically low interest rates and government housing incentives will help drive demand through the remainder of the spring. We will have a more clear picture of whether the market can sustain itself in the third quarter after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. Despite the positive market indicators, we believe recovery in the near term will be moderated in our area by continued tight credit, high unemployment in the financial services sector, and excessive household debt that needs to be absorbed. It may be several years before our local markets truly recover at the mid and upper price points. The key to price stabilization is the reduction in inventory. At the lower price points we are seeing improvement as the market equalizes. Residual inventory is declining at double digit
levels in most categories, confirming that home inventory is being absorbed at a significantly faster pace than was the case last year. As improved sales volume moves through all price points, prices will continue to stabilize. Price Waterhouse Coopers 2010 Real Estate Trends confirms the fundamental shifts we are seeing in buyer attitudes and behavior, where they are choosing quality over quantity. According to this publication, “In 2009, the American dream collided with reality. Now, many homeowners understand that a bigger house isn’t necessarily a better house to buy, especially if you’re overextending on debt. More frugal buyers are realizing they don’t need so much space if it saves on energy and taxes.” We feel positive about the direction and magnitude of the Connecticut real estate market recovery. There are many positive market indicators that point to continued progress, including further price stabilization. Information Sources: Case-Schiller reports,Various MLS services, National Association of Realtors, Connecticut Economic Digest, local mortgage brokers, Realty Trac, CMLS, CT-MLS,NCMLS, DARMLS. While information is believed true, no guaranty is made for accuracy. Cover art: *Red Boats, Argenteuil used with permission.
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