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ASSESSING RISK; BUILDING ASSURANCE

nother new year has been met by a flurry of North Korean ballistic missile launches. While writing this column, more and more launches were being monitored as Kim Jong-un continues his belligerence and defiance against United Nations Resolution 1695 (2006) which demanded that the country “suspend all ballistic missile related activity and reinstate its moratorium on missile launches.” Observers of the North Korean ballistic missile development programme argue that this concentrated activity exemplifies continued missile testing rather than an escalation in Kim’s desire to get back to the top of the regional agenda by reminding the United States, South Korea and Japan that he is still dangerous and unpredictable (which has ever been the case). The first missile was launched on Wednesday 5 January which North Korea claimed was a hypersonic missile. According to the Japanese military who monitored the launch, it flew for between 500km-700km before coming down in the Sea of Japan. Whether this missile, thought to be based on a Hwasong-8 really does have hypersonic capabilities has yet to be proven. The technology would have had to have come from either China or Russia and whether either of those countries would have found it acceptable for North Korea to be given this high technology is questionable. The second occurred on Tuesday 11 January, again supposedly a hypersonic missile, and a further two short range ballistic missiles were reported by North Korean media as having been fired from a train on Friday 14 January. More followed on Monday 17 January but the final missile test as this column went to print was the biggest yet. On 31 January the North Korean Government confirmed that a Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) had been launched and flew over 430 nautical miles (800km) landing in waters off Japan. Experts state that the Hwasong-12 can reach out to over 2,000nm (4,000km).

Stronger together

The slow but sure international reaction to China’s military build-up and expansionist foreign policy is growing, and in particular Japan moved to strengthen its defence agreements with both the United States and Australia early in the new year. On Thursday 6 January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison virtually concluded a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), which allows the militaries of both countries to work together in defence and humanitarian operations. This comes as work to complete the updating of the 2007 Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation continues. This outlines cooperation over counter-terrorism, maritime security, peacekeeping operations, and disaster relief. In late December 2021 a Special Measures Agreement (SMA) was being inked that saw Japan increasing its financial commitment to fund US forces stationed in Japan. Over the next five years it will allocate around $1.8 billion per annum which is part of a cost sharing agreement. The deal will cover the inclusion of training equipment for US forces but will also “contribute to enhanced capabilities of the Self-Defense Forces of Japan for greater Alliance deterrence and readiness.” This echoes the ‘flavour of the month’ phrase ‘allies and partners’ currently being used by all rules based democratic nations that refers to strength is in unity, which directly opposes China’s foreign policy tactic of isolating individual nations and using economic coercion to make them subservient to China’s wishes.

Andrew Drwiega, Editor-in-Chief

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