NUCLEAR POWERED DETERRENCE

he initial fanfare and celebrations (except in France) that followed the announcement on 15 September 2021 of the AUKUS trilateral pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, promised a whole new level of strategic security that would be put in place, most notably with the development and introduction into service of up to eight nuclear powered (not nuclear armed) attack submarines for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN).

During a trilateral press conference, then Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that “the first major initiative for AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear powered submarine fleet for Australia.” He added that they would be built in Australia, in Adelaide, in close cooperation with the other two nations, who already own both nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines and attack submarines.

Following this, then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasised that “it would be one of the most complex and technically demanding projects in the world lasting decades and requiring the most advanced technology.” He added that “only a handful of countries posses nuclear powered submarines and it is a momentous decision for any nation to acquire this formidable capability.”

Finally US President called the development of a nuclear submarine a “a strategic mission” to provide the RAN with “conventionally armed, nuclear submarines”. Biden stated that an 18 month consultation period was set “to determine every element of the programme.”

Since then however, concerns have grown regarding just how long the development and procurement process will take, with some estimates indicating that the submarines would not enter service until the 2050s. Buying modern conventional submarines would be much quicker and would reduce the need to maintain the existing, aged Collins-class submarines through an expensive life extension programme.

There have also been concerns raised in the US over the AUKUS deal detracting from the US Navy’s own nuclear submarine capability and sustainment capacities, and there are of course civil objections in Australia over the establishment of nuclear facilities of any type.

China has naturally been strongly opposed to the AUKUS collaboration, and has even appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency to try and get the nuclear submarine project halted - which is of course ironic as China has a history of picking and choosing which rules from international bodies it abides by or ignores. One such example was the 2016 ruling by the Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration rules in favour of the Philippines that China’s claims to sovereignty over the South China Sea (claimed though the ‘nine-dash line’) were illegal.

Better clarity and a way forward should come from the multi-agency Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce report due in March 2023. But it is apparent that there is also a wider vision at play. Minister for Defence Richard Marles stated at the 11th biennial Submarine Institute of Australia conference hosted in Canberra in November 2022, that there would be “enormous benefit’ derived from the programme “not only in terms of jobs and an increased workforce, but in relation to Australia’s investment in science and technology.”

Once again as often happens in defence, short term ‘make do’ is playing against much longer term economic opportunity and stronger defence capability. And there may even be a time when Australia wants its own nuclear deterrence.

Andrew Drwiega, Editor-in-Chief

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