The Retail Report
Retail Sales ($000,000)
Unemployment Rate (%)
1.7%
1.4%
Overall
NE
NW
SE
SW
(39.1 Million SF)
(9.7 Million SF)
(9.1 Million SF)
(12.6 Million SF)
(7.7 Million SF)
U N E M P L O Y M E N T
April-11
March-11
January-11
February-11
December-10
October-10
November-10
September-10
July-10
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
August-10
May-10
June-10
April-10
March-10
January-10
February-10
December-09
October-09
November-09
September-09
July-09
August-09
May-09
June-09
April-09
March-09
January-09
February-09
December-08
October-08
November-08
September-08
July-08
August-08
May-08
June-08
April-08
S A L E S
1.7%
Alberta Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate
5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500
March-08
R E T A I L
Sources: Statistics Canada, Government of Alberta
Retail Sales Trendline
Alberta Retail Sales and Wages & Salaries
Wages and Salaries ($000,000)
Retail Sales ($000,000)
December-10
November-10
October-10
August-10
September-10
July-10
June-10
May-10
April-10
March-10
February-10
January-10
December-09
November-09
October-09
September-09
July-09
May-09
June-09
April-09
March-09
January-09
February-09
December-08
November-08
October-08
August-08
September-08
July-08
June-08
S A L E S
10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800
5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500
May-08
R E T A I L
April-08
In May, Tiffany & Co. opened its first store in Calgary; its fourth location in Canada. The 4,100 square feet store in Chinook Centre’s newly expanded wing is just yet another indication of Calgary’s growing global recognition as a luxury retail destination. The market is also upbeat in the
2.0%
March-08
The demise of brick and mortar video stores has been well documented, evident in the downsizing of Rogers Videos and closing of Hollywood Videos. With Blockbuster Canada in receivership, up to one-third of all locations are expected to close with 7 announced for Calgary. The resulting vacancies present additional opportunities for retailers, with many of the locations having been snapped up by tenancies such as financial institutions, Bulk Barn and Sherwin Williams.
Calgary Retail Q2 2011 Vacancy Rates
3.9%
January-08
Competition between US and Canadian retailers has translated into takeovers and consolidations. While possibilities exist for the closing of selected store locations due to market coverage duplication, tenant demand exists to absorb any available space. While the expansion of large US retailers into the local market place is certainly a factor, Canadian retailers are also playing a huge part. Strong retail sales activity has translated into high demand for quality retail space.
SF)
February-08
algary’s retail real estate market is on a strong course due primarily to continued growth in retail sales and downward trend in unemployment. Retail sales in Alberta increased by 7.4% to $5.24 billion for April 2011 on a year to year basis. Alberta’s average weekly earnings remain the highest of all provinces at $1,036, substantially higher than the national average of $877. A recent report released by KubasPrimedia also found Calgarians to be the most optimistic in the country, with 60% of consumers stating that the economy is improving. While rising food and gasoline prices have cooled consumer spending, solid economic fundamentals have translated into low vacancy and vibrant market activities.
January-08
C
Mid-Year 2011
food and restaurant sector. Five Guys Burger & Fries has plans to open 8 or more locations in Calgary, while Buffalo Wild Wings, the Zagat ranked number 1 US sports bar, will open its first restaurant in 2012. Other companies on the expansion front include Good Earth, Dollarama, Báton Rouge, Pet Valu and Cora’s Breakfast & Lunch. In the downtown core, Stephen Avenue has been reinvigorated as a safe and pleasant pedestrian outdoor mall. Both the variety and quality of retailers have improved, evident through renovation projects such as The Core, Venator (adjacent to Scotia Centre), and facelift of the King Henry VIII pub building next to Flames Central. (813,000
February-08
Calgary Retail Outlook
What’s on the Horizon
Future Projects: Stampede Trail
FOCUS: Beacon Heights
August-09
US Retailer Expansion
W A G E S / S A L A R I E S
Sources: Statistics Canada, Government of Alberta
AVISON YOUNG The Retail Report - Mid-Year 2011
The US Retailer Expansion
T
he trend of US retailers entering the Canadian market through expansion or takeovers can be attributed to a number of factors. Particular incentives include Canada’s proximity to the US market, a common language, and strong economic fundamentals. Scarcity in quality Canadian retail real estate has led to strategic acquisitions by US retailers. Walmart’s acquisition of 120 Woolco stores in 1994, and Best Buy’s acquisition of Future Shop in 2001 are two prime examples. This is a direct reflection of the high value of retail properties in Canada. Target, the number 2 US retailer’s $1.83 billion takeover of Canadian leases on 220 Zellers locations certainly attracted attention in January. Target has subsequently announced the first 105 Zellers locations slated for conversion (including 6 in Calgary) with up to $10-million planned for the remodelling and renovation of each selected location. Another notable entry into the Canadian market is the purchase of Calgary based Liquidation World by Big Lots Inc., a US closeout retailer with 1,405 stores. The transaction provides Big Lots with exposure to the Canadian market with Liquidation World’s existing 92 locations across the country, including 3 in Calgary. Other large US retailers without a Canadian presence with potential expansion plans include Nordstrom, J.C. Penny, Kohls, Walgreen, and Macy’s, while rumoured potential targets include Jacob and Reitmans. Partly in response to potential cross boarder competition, Canadian Tire announced its purchase of Calgary based Forzani Group in May.
FOCUS: Beacon Heights
B
eacon Heights Shopping Centre is a new 10acre power centre located adjacent to Beacon Hill Centre in Northwest Calgary. Easily accessible
via Sarcee Trail and Sherwood Boulevard NW, immediate surrounding communities include Sherwood, Hamptons, Citadel, and Spy Hill. Anchor tenants include CIBC and Optics International, with neighbouring tenants including Canadian Tire, Costco, Golf Town, Home Depot and Future Shop, amongst others. The development has a primary trade population of 175,000 with a secondary trade population of 300,000. The extension of Sarcee Trail to 144th Avenue is expected to encourage future residential developments in the area, in turn benefiting commercial developments in the region.
include health-oriented retail, restaurants and a hotel, amongst others. The proposal takes advantage of the opportunity to monetize underutilized lands to take advantage of Calgary’s favourable retail real estate market. In East Village, the vision to transform this long neglected area into an urban village continues to take shape. In February, Calgary Municipal Land Corporation announced a major land development deal for approximately 600,000 square feet of mixed use multi-family and retail. Combined with a previous announcement from October 2010, a total of $600 million will be invested into mixed use development in the area. This brings new retail opportunities in the heart of the city, along with desirable demographics associated with multi-family developments.
Beacon Heights - Architect’s rendering
Future Projects
A
critical part of the Calgary Stampede Park expansion and redevelopment, the Stampede Trail development will add 150,000 square feet of retail space situated in the heart of Stampede Park. Stampede Trail is developed by Alberta Development Partners with Avison Young acting as the exclusive leasing agent. Leasing activity has really picked up since latter 2010 and the momentum has carried on through 2011. An announcement for construction could potentially take place in late 2011, early 2012. WinSport’s proposed retail/commercial development will add approximately 400,000 square feet of retail space at the Canada Olympic Park. Subject to city approval on changes to the COP area structure plan, WinSport is hopeful for construction to begin in 2012. Preliminary plans
Stampede Trail - Architect’s rendering
Average Weekly Earnings March 2011 $1,100
$1,036
$1,000 $900
$877
$800 $700 $600 $500
Sources: Statistics Canada
AVISON YOUNG The Retail Report - Mid-Year 2011
Calgary Retail Market - New Developments Timing
5
Skyview Town Centre (Country Hills Blvd. NE)
LaCaille Group
500,000
Phased
6
Easthills
Trinity
880,000
Phased
7
Deerfoot Meadows Village
Ivanhoe Cambridge
300,000
Proposed
8
South Trail
Shepard Development
9
Mahogany
10
5 25
1
IL
STONEY TRA
BE
DD
Gates of Walden
Royop
68,000
2011 +
13
Legacy
West Creek
700,000
Proposed
14
NWC Macleod Trail / 210th Avenue SW
IKO
300,000
Proposed
15
Silverado Marketplace
Ronmor
106,000
2011 +
16
Silverado Square
Axis
100,000
Proposed
17
7337 Macleod Trail SW
Telsec
18
Currie Barracks
Canada Lands Corp.
200,000
Proposed
19
Crestmont
Qualico
400,000
Proposed
20
Sweet Lands
Melcor
400,000
Proposed
21
Bow Valley Crossing
Loblaws
700,000
Proposed
22
Greenbriar
Melcor
51,000
Proposed
23
Canada Olympic Park
Trinity
400,000
Proposed
75,000
180,000
Stampede Trail
Alberta Development
25
Royal Oak Park
Certus
74,000
2011 +
26
Beacon Heights
Cidex
140,000
2010 +
27
Sage Hill
RioCan
300,000
2012 +
28
Sage Hill Farm
LaCaille Group
100,000
Proposed
29
Creekside
Hopewell
30
Evanston Towne Centre
Qualico
2014 +
31
Keystone (Stoney Trail / Harvest Hills)
Brookfield
32
Gates of Panorama
Royop
33
Elbow Valley
Hopewell
34
CrossIron Commons
Ivanhoe Cambridge
50,000
2011 +
136,000
2011 +
IV DR ILL
TR A
IL
SE H NO
22 23
OLD BANFF COACH ROAD
32 AVENUE
16 AVENUE
16 AVENUE
ME
MO
17 AVENUE
GL
EN
33
MO
RE
TR
AIL
RIA
LD
BOW TRAIL
RIV
VE
MEMORIAL DRI
E
18
2011 +
94,000
Proposed
17 HERITAGE DRIVE
7
GLENMORE TRAIL
SOUTHLAND DRIVE DEE
RFO
ANDERSON ROAD
OT TR
114 AVENUE AIL
8
10 9
SPRUCE MEADOWS TRAIL (22X)
Phased CLE MA
16 15
TR OD AIL
14
Š 2011, Avison Young Real Estate Alberta Inc. The information contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable and, while believed to be correct; is not guaranteed by Avison Young.
6
17 AVENUE
24
Proposed
59,000
411,000
21
2011 +
24
1,000,000
MCKNIGHT BOULEVARD
20 19
TRANS CANADA HIGHWAY
AIL
12
2
L
IL
Phased
AI
TRA
703,000
TR
OD
Brookfield
LD
MA CLE
Seton
L
14 STREET
11
AI
14 STREET
2013 +
TR
IL
60,000
HI
CROWCHILD TRAIL
Brookfield
4
PP IT RA
Auburn Bay
GT ON
NA
Phased
IN
SH AG A
350,000
CR OW C
SARCEE TRAIL
Hopewell
E
2011 +
SA RC E
60,000
COUNTRY HILLS BOULEVARD
84 STREET
Phased
STONEY TRAIL
Phased
1,000,000
STONEY TRAIL
3
SE STONEY TRAIL OPENS 2013
1,500,000
Trinity
31
32
84 STREET
WAM / AIMCo
Jacksonport
26
52 STREET
Stonegate
4
29
BARLOW TRAIL
3
30
27 28
BARLOW TRAIL
Proposed
OT T R
300,000
RFO
Rencor
DEE
Bingham Crossing
RA IL
Proposed
2
FO OT T
94,000
ER
Est. SF
Melcor
DE
Developer
The District at North Deerfoot
34
BLACKFOOT TRAIL
Sites
1
E
Site
HIGHWAY 566
12 13
11
AVISON YOUNG FEATURED RETAIL LISTINGS
Stampede Trail Up to 180,000 Sq. Ft. Mixed Use Retail Development Retail Leasing Opportunities
Sierra Springs
Beacon Heights Up to 256,000 Sq. Ft. 2,000 - 35,000 Sq. Ft. Airdrie’s 43 acre Retail Development 10 acre Retail Power Centre Retail Leasing Opportunities Retail Leasing Opportunities
Crowfoot Village
14,518 - 22,000 Sq. Ft. Suburban Retail Head Lease Opportunities
1,299 - 4,090 Sq. Ft. Within Crowfoot Towne Centre Retail Leasing Opportunities
Bruce Bynoe 403.232.4302 bruce.bynoe@avisonyoung.com
New Proposed Office Bldg
Main: 2,300 SF & Plus 15: 7,500 SF Downtown Retail Opportunities
6311 Centre Street S
AY CALGARY RETAIL TEAM
608 7th Street SW
6404 Bowness Road NW 4,436 Sq. Ft. Neighbourhood Retail Strip Retail Leasing Opportunity
For full brochures, please visit us at: www.avisonyoung.com
Jeff McGinley 403.232.4305 jeff.mcginley@avisonyoung.com 8303 Fairmont Drive SE 3,700 Sq. Ft. Acadia Shopping Centre Retail SubLease Opportunity
Amela Palić 403.232.4315 amela.palic@avisonyoung.com Alex Mandolidis 403.232.4321 alex.mandolidis@avisonyoung.com Doug Johannson 403.232.4314 doug.johannson@avisonyoung.com Jaclyn Snell 403.232.4323 jaclyn.snell@avisonyoung.com
AY CALGARY BUSINESS CONDOMINIUM TEAM Pali Bedi 403.232.4311 pali.bedi@avisonyoung.com Fred Clemens 403.232.4312 fred.clemens@avisonyoung.com © 2011, Avison Young Real Estate Alberta Inc. The information contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable and, while believed to be correct; is not guaranteed by Avison Young.
AVISON YOUNG The Retail Report - Mid-Year 2011