Exploring the Cascading Effects of Arctic Ice Melt

I REALIZE NOW THAT WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER. WHAT HAPPENS IN NUUK, GREENLAND, OR BARROW, ALASKA, AFFECTS US ALL.

—Elise Miller-Hooks, Bill and Eleanor Hazel Chair of Infrastructure Engineering at the Volgenau School

The Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the planet, but for a team of researchers at George Mason University, that’s just the tip of the iceberg of the changes to come.

The team members, led by faculty from Mason’s Volgenau School of Engineering and the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution, are diving into how melting ice in the Arctic will affect the people, habitats, and social fabric of this remote region. A National Science Foundation grant—An Expanding Global Maritime Network, Its Arctic Impacts, and Reverberations—provides the support to better understand this global challenge and to help mitigate its effects on the Arctic. “We are considering the effects of the sea ice melting in the Arctic and the potential for this change to affect world trade flows and a myriad of things that connect to these flows,” says Elise Miller-Hooks, the principal investigator and Bill and Eleanor Hazel Chair of Infrastructure Engineering at the Volgenau School. As previously icebound passageways open, shorter trade routes will save time and money in the transportation of goods and services. “The opening up of this northwest route will affect trade in many ways,” says Miller-Hooks. As more traffic passes through the Arctic, there will be changes in supply chains, increased pollution of the shipping lanes, and changes to the fragile Arctic ecosystem. On the other hand, there will be jobs and the potential for economic growth, but these opportunities could disrupt the lives and threaten the cultures of indigenous people. Sara Cobb, the grant’s co-principal investigator and director of the Center for the Study of Narrative and Conflict Resolution, brings her expertise in conflict and narrative studies as the team seeks to understand the impact of the coming changes and develop early warning systems for Arctic communities.

The study’s unique pairing of mathematical analysis with narrative studies aims to help develop tools that could lead to early responses to help mitigate the effects of the many changes in the Arctic. Celso Ferreira, associate professor in the Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering and a co-principal investigator on the grant, adds his knowledge of flood hazards to the team. “As the Arctic ice diminishes, the coastlines are more vulnerable to storms and erosion,” says Ferreira. The team hopes to work with the people who live in the Arctic as they develop sustainable solutions to the challenges of the ice melt. “The Arctic ice melt is a big problem. Big problems demand big answers and big teams,” says Miller-Hooks. “We are leading a team of experts from many different areas, including civil engineering, applied mathematics, anthropology, ice physics, coastal dynamics, and narrative approaches to conflict analysis and resolution.” Ultimately, the research team wants to develop a toolbox that will support research around the globe with Mason researchers at the center of the work. Miller-Hooks says the team’s work has opened her eyes to the interconnectedness of our world. “I realize now that we are all in this together. What happens in Nuuk, Greenland, or Barrow, Alaska, affects us all.”

—Martha Bushong Professor Elise Miller-Hooks