Solidariteit en de Technologische Revolutie Wichert Hoekert Peter Hoogveld
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Introductie
Solidariteit: (n)iets nieuws….
Verzekeraarsperspectief
Pensioenfondsperspectief
Solidariteit
Vragenlijst en conclusies
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? Solidariteit willistowerswatson.com © 2018 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Willis Towers Watson and Willis Towers Watson client use only.
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Substantief Warm Organisch Kans
Formeel Koud Mechanisch Risico
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Behoefte Maatschappij
Politiek
Individu
Solidariteit Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Solidariteitsschuif Technologische ontwikkelingen
Terugtredende overheid Risicodeling
Herverdeling
Premie Privaat Eigenbelang
Belasting Publiek Altruïsme Onverzekerbare?
Verzekerbare
Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Ga naar www.menti.com en gebruik de code 58 76 05
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Behoefte Maatschappij
Politiek
Individu
Solidariteit Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Behoefte Maatschappij
Politiek
Individu
Solidariteit Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Verzekeraarsperspectief
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Hoe het begon
Ontwikkeling van statistische technieken vlucht na introductie computers
Doen wat nodig en nuttig was
Ken de klant
Toenemende Boeren, Coöperaties concurrentie en VOC Disruptie! Consumptie, meer Data Johan de Witt en behoefte aan Edmund Halley verzekeringen maakte al gebruik analyse Portefeuille management willistowerswatson.com © 2018 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Willis Towers Watson and Willis Towers Watson client use only.
van “big data” in hun tijd!
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De Data & Analyse “ijsberg” Evolutie of cyclisch? Innovatie en normalisering in the analytische benadering “Before Tooling” § Pre-1996
Mature GLM § 1997 to 2014?
Analytics
Early ML/Current § 2015 to 2017?
Analytics
Analytics
Data
Data
Data
§ GLIM 3.5/4.0 § § Data not organized § for analytics § “Coding” type skills §
Analytics
Mature ML/Next § 2018 onwards? Analytics Data
Data
§ Many and varied § Slick GLM/ML tool Slick GLM tool interface Data organized for tools § (New) data not yet § Data organized for (GLM) analytics ML analytics organized for ML Speed of thought analytics § Speed of thought analytics analytics § “Coding” type skills
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Data en digitale disruptie in de verzekeringssector Wat voedt het en wat is de impact? Voeding voor verandering “Advanced analytics”
Impact op de sector Investeringen
(Big) Data
§ Interne analytische teams en technologie § Start-ups § Digitale transformatie
Technologie
Samenwerking
Data Science
§ IoT providers § Data providers
Dichter bij de klant Hype en ruis Start-ups
§ Direct / multi-channel contact § Affinity relaties § App ontwikkeling
Disruptie!
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Opkomende concepten in “advanced analytics” Predictive analytics
Predictive analytics is the branch of advanced analytics which is used to make predictions about future unknown events. It uses many techniques from data mining, statistics, modelling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Increasingly, machine learning techniques are used to underpin prescriptive analytics.
Fraud detection
Individual claims reserving
Cross- selling and targeting
Underwriting
Claims payments
This concept is not new to insurance but some of the data underpinning predictive models and some of the techniques being used to build predictive models arguably is.
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Opkomende concepten in “advanced analytics” Machine learning
Machine learning is a subfield of computer science and artificial intelligence which deals with building systems that can learn from data, instead of explicitly programmed instructions.
Random forests
Neural networks
GBMs Logistic regression
K means clustering
Machine learning is a critical component of the predictive analytics process in a world that is increasingly (dirty) data rich.
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Opkomende concepten in “advanced analytics” Big data
Big Data refers to both large volumes of data with high level of complexity and the analytical methods applied to them which require more advanced techniques and technologies in order to derive meaningful information and insights.
UBI & Telematics
Wearables Social media
IoT Home Devices
Insurers with most data tend to be multi-product (particularly composites), have a strong on-line/app presence, have a significant direct channel, partner or offer products that utilise IoT and telematics devices.
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Opkomende concepten in “advanced analytics” Big data - potentiële impact op onverzekerbaarheid .
*Research of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia
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Impact van advanced analytics op verzekeren Verzekeraars verbeteren hun mogelijkheden om meer geïnformeerde beslissingen te maken binnen de gehele waardeketen Marketing and Distribution
Product development (UBI)
Underwriting and risk management
Customer management
Pricing
Retention segmentation and programme design
Agent/Broker performance evaluation
60
3500
40
3000
20
2500
0
Claims management
Asset management
Fraud detection
2000
-20
1500
-40 -60
1000
-80
500
-100
0 Low rating factor
High rating factor exposure excess res
P&C to Life cross-selling
Web-scraping and feature design in commercial lines
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Topic modelling and large loss modelling
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Wat is Blockchain: new kid on the block Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2015
Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2016
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Wat is Blockchain: bijna bij de “trog” van de desillusie
Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2017
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Wat is Blockchain? It is a shared distributed (digital) ledger technology Decentralized
Centralized
Distributed willistowerswatson.com © 2018 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Willis Towers Watson and Willis Towers Watson client use only.
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Bewijs van impact op de verzekeringsindustrie – groeiende bedreiging van insurtech P2P
Healthcare
UBI/Auto
Reinsurance
Product insurance
Spot Insurance Marketplace & online consumer platforms Backend
Accelerators
Sharing Economy
IoT Data, Software & Analytics
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Impact technologie op solidariteit: evolutie of revolutie
Technische mogelijkheden Van alle tijden
Correlaties in data Bijjsturen vanuit politiek klimaat
De producten en het speelveld zal wijzigen
Solidariteit onderwerp van debat
Black De box evolutie Marktwerking gaat wat Verzekeren sneller? doel op zich
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Pensioenfondsperspectief
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Risicodeling
Herverdeling Beoogde herverdeling Geaccepteerde herverdeling Perverse herverdeling
Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Resterende levensverwachting
Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
organisatie
Laagste inkomenssixtiel t.o.v. geen ervaringssterfte
Hoogste inkomenssixtiel t.o.v. geen ervaringssterfte
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Verzekeraar
Pensioenfonds
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Conclusie en vragen
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Solidariteit is en blijft van alle tijden Menselijke natuur en rationeel belang voor verzekeraars
Invloed van technologie op solidariteit bij verzekeraars lijkt van evolutionaire aard Invloed van technologie op solidariteit bij pensioenen zou van revolutionaire aard kunnen zijn Zelfbeschikking over eigen informatie is van cruciaal belang Een modern actuaris moet zich ook kunnen profileren op gebied van technologie en ethiek willistowerswatson.com © 2018 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Willis Towers Watson and Willis Towers Watson client use only.
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Resultaten survey
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Dank u!
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