$741 $713
$600
$554
Appendix A $263 $400
$200 $128
$49
$401
$804
U.S., 3.6%
4.0% 2.0%
$455 $473
Utah, 2.5%
0.0% Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
$ millions
$800
$161
Utah $0 Fiscal and Economic Preparedness
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P
- Moody’s
“S&P Global Ratings believes Utah’s strong credit fundamentals will allow the state to navigate through the economic uncertainty and challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.” -S&P
coronavirus.utah.gov
thousands
thousands
0.0%
Utah a
Value at Risk
10.0%
8.0%
6.0% Cum 4.0% 45 2.0% 40 35 0.0% 30 25 20 15 10 5
Utah
Cash-funded Buildings and Roads $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $800 $800 $600 $800 $600 $400
Cumu Utah a 45 10.0% 40 35 8.0% 30 25 6.0% 20 15 4.0% 10 2.0% 5
thousands
$ millions $ millions$ millions
Cash $1,200 - funded Buildings and Roads
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Value at Risk
“Utah’s Aaa rating reflects the state’s tradition of strong conservative fiscal governance that is expressed in frequent revenue forecast adjustments, structurally balanced budgets, a willingness to make both spending and revenue adjustments when necessary, and accumulation of ample reserves.”
Cumu
10.0 $804 $741 $713$804 $741 $713
Encumbered
$554 $455 $473 $401$554 $455 $473 $263$401
$600 $200 $400
8.0
6.0
4.0
$0 $400 $161 $200 $128 CY11 CY12 CY10 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19P CY20P $263 $49 $161 $128 $0 $200 FY11$49 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P
2.0
0.0
Source: $0Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Utah Office of the FY11Analyst FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Legislative Fiscal
(P)
Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance $1,000 $1,200 $800 $1,000 $800 $600 $600 $400 $400
Encumbered
$459
$1,168 $1,122$804 $1,073 $741 $713 $940 $1,007
$820 $554 $657 $455 $473 $493$401
$352$263 $293 $161 $200 $128 $200 $49 $0
(P)
17
Value at Risk
- Fitch
$ millions $ millions $ millions
“The state is well-positioned to address an economic downturn, given its broad control over expenditures, revenue raising capacity, and maintenance of sound reserves.”
$455 $473 $803 $800 $800 $401 $400 $684 $600 $263 $600 $542 $570 $161 $200 $528 $128 $400 $469 $49 $420 $400 $200 $0 $245 $294 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P $200 $0 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19P CY20P $0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance
$ millions $ millions
$ millions
$ millions$ millions
$ millions
$ millions Value at Risk
Utah’s Fiscal Toolkit Between 2009 and 2020, Utah and the nation experienced the Rainy Day Funds longest, sustained economic expansion in history. Utah created Rainy Day Revenue Enhancement Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance over 400,000 jobs, and unemployment dropped to a historic $1,000 $894 $932 low. Utah used this time to build up significant reserves that can $1,200 $803 Operating Reserves $800 $684 help to support the economy and mitigate impacts to critical $1,000 Working Rainy Day Funds $600 $542 $570 $528 public services like education, public safety, transportation, and $800 Spending Reductions $420 $469 $400 Cashflow Management public health and social safety-net programs. $600 $245 $294 Temporal Balance The fiscal toolkit diagram at the right shows state budget $200 $400 experts’ $200 recommended sequencing of resource use in an Economic Volatility $0 Source: OfficeFY11 of theFY12 Legislative Analyst FY13Fiscal FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P $0 downturn. The temporal budget balance (matching economic CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19P CY20P Other General Fund Education Fund ongoing expectations with more reliable revenue sources and Rainy Day Rainy Day Funds using onetime windfalls for spending of limited scope) is the $1,000 $894 $932 first resource that should be tapped; formal rainy-day funds Cash - funded Buildings and Roads $803 $800 are the last. $684 $1,000 $570 $600 $542 $528 Utah’s $1,000 official rainy-day funds (budget reserve and $804 $420 $469 $800 $741 $713 Encumbered $804 $400 disaster recovery accounts), “working” rainy day funds (cash $294 $741 $713 $800 $245 $600 $554 appropriated for buildings and roads that can be replaced $200 $455 $473 $554 $401 $600 with borrowing), and unemployment insurance trust fund $400 $0 $455 $473 $401 FY11 FY12 FY13 $263 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P balance $161 $200 $128 $400 were at record levels at the beginning of 2020. These $263 General Fund Education Fund $49 Other reserves are in addition to immediately available options $161 $0 $200 $128 Source: UtahFY11 Governor’s Management and Budget UtahFY19 OfficeFY20 of theP FY21P FY12Office FY13of FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17and FY18 like reprioritizing $49current budget allocations and drawing on Legislative Fiscal Analyst $0 reserves. Portions of the balances presented at the operating Cash - funded Buildings and Roads FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (P) (P) Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance right are encumbered; details will be provided in future reports. Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund February Balance $1,000 The “Big Three” credit rating agencies – Fitch, Moody’s, and Rainy Day $804 $1,200 $800 $741 $713 S&P – affirmed Utah’s fiscal stability and preparedness with $1,000 $1,000 $600 $554 AAA credit ratings on May 8, 2020. $894 $932
