GTA Condo Life - January 28, 2023

BIG PICTURE,

LONG TERM

As we near the end of the first month of 2023, we can begin to look forward to improving market conditions and brighter, warmer and longer days.

Indeed, last year wasn’t the easiest for prospective homebuyers, as higher interest rates, concerns for the economy and inflation conspired to impart a chill over the real estate market.

According to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey, for example, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 2.8 per cent yearover-year to $757,100 in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was the first such decline recorded since the end of 2008 during the global financial crisis. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 2.3 per cent – the third consecutive quarterly decline, though the smallest of the year.

But as we often discuss in Condo Life and on nexthome.ca, you should view real estate locally, over the long term and even by property type. Case in point: Those Royal LePage numbers are for Canada overall, and of course when you buy a home, you don’t buy a national market; you buy one property on one street in one location.

For the GTA, specifically, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $1.06 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price decreased 2.7 per cent; the third consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

WAYNE KARL

Broken down by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $1.32 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, while (take note, Condo Life readers) the median price of a condominium increased 2.7 per cent to $683,100.

Again, perhaps not spectacular numbers, but when we take a longer view, we get a different picture. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reports that the average aggregate selling price for 2022 was $1.18 million – up 8.6 per cent compared to $1.09 million in 2021. And underlining the need to examine specific property types, condo prices actually finished 11.3 per cent higher for the year.

Looking at specific markets, aggregate home prices for 2022 increased four per cent in Oakville, and seven per cent in Vaughan, according to Royal LePage.

For all the talk of doom and gloom, single-digit quarterly declines in some categories don’t seem so tragic.

Indeed, as our Outlook 2023 Special Report on page 18 discusses, there are reasons to be optimistic, even positive, about the road ahead this year and into 2024 and beyond.

If you look at the big picture, long term.

PERSONAL FINANCE | JESSE ABRAMS

Jesse Abrams is Co-Founder at Homewise, a mortgage advisory and brokerage firm based in Toronto. thinkhomewise.com

WESTERN VIEW | MIKE COLLINS-WILLIAMS

Mike Collins-Williams, RPP, MCIP, is CEO West End Home Builders’ Association. westendhba.ca.

HOME REALTY | DEBBIE COSIC

Debbie Cosic is CEO and founder of In2ition Realty. She has overseen the sale of more than $15 billion worth of real estate. With Debbie at its helm, In2ition has become one of the fastest-growing and most innovative new home and condo sales companies. in2ition.ca

REALTY INSIDER | MICHAEL KLASSEN

Michael Klassen is the Broker of Record, Eleven Eleven Real Estate Services. Based in Toronto, this firm is a residential pre-construction listing brokerage. 1111realty.ca

REAL ESTATE PRO | BARBARA LAWLOR

Barbara Lawlor is President and CEO of Baker Real Estate Inc., and an indemand columnist and speaker. A member of the Baker team since 1993, Barbara oversees the marketing and sale of condo developments in Canada and overseas. baker-re.com

STAT CHAT | BEN MYERS

Ben Myers is President of Bullpen Consulting. Ben provides pricing recommendation, product mix, and valuation studies on new residential housing developments for builders, lenders and property owners. bullpenconsulting.ca

LEGALLY SPEAKING | JAYSON SCHWARZ

Jayson Schwarz LL.M. is a Toronto real estate lawyer and partner in the law firm Schwarz Law LLP. He can be reached by visiting schwarzlaw.ca or by email at info@schwarzlaw.ca or phone at 416.486.2040.

BILD REPORT | DAVE WILKES

Dave Wilkes is president and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), the voice of the home building, land development and professional renovation industry in the GTA. For the latest industry news and new home data, follow BILD on Twitter at @bildgta or visit bildgta.ca

CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER Jacky Hill jacky.hill@nexthome.ca

EXECUTIVE MEDIA CONSULTANT Michael Rosset

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF – NATIONAL REAL ESTATE Susan Legge susan.legge@nexthome.ca

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF – GREATER TORONTO AREA Wayne Karl wayne.karl@nexthome.ca

MANAGING EDITOR Rise Levy rise.levy@nexthome.ca

CONTRIBUTORS

Jesse Abrams, Mike Collins-Williams, Debbie Cosic, Michael Klassen, Barbara Lawlor, Ben Myers, Jayson Schwarz, Dave Wilkes

SENIOR VICE-PRESIDENT, SALES, NEXTHOME Hope McLarnon 416.708.7987, hope.mclarnon@nexthome.ca

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WHAT CAN WE EXPECT

FOR CANADIAN MORTGAGES IN 2023?

jEssE AbRAms

After a year filled with interest rate hikes, volatility in the housing market and high inflation, many Canadian borrowers are unsure what’s in store for 2023. To set the record straight and ease the uncertainties many people are feeling, here’s a few things we can expect to see in the new year ahead.

Buzz of another rate increase? it’s a toss up. Things can go one of two ways. First, there’s a chance that rates can go up again. There have been some rumblings of another rate hike, and if inflation doesn’t stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, we can expect rates to inch even higher. Not to mention, job numbers were stronger than expected in 2022 and the unemployment rate also dropped by 0.1 to five per cent. As a result, many experts speculate the Bank of Canada (BoC) may tighten things further in its scheduled announcement at the end of January.

On the flip side, there’s also the possibility that rates will decrease as we head into the summer months. While variable rate mortgages are directly affected by the BoC’s decisions, fixed rates are dependent on bond yields. Since bond yields trade in anticipation of the BoC’s rate announcements, we will likely see three- to five-year fixed rates dip lower throughout 2023. Over the last few months, fixed rates have slightly dropped – but they have recently increased and there’s a chance they

could continue to do so. Whether this means rates will be in the high threeto low four-per-cent range by the end of 2023, still remains uncertain.

home prices and rates. they go hand-in-hand.

It’s worth mentioning that home prices have consistently dropped since the peak in Q1 2022. Some buyers who bought in 2021 and 2022 with ultra-low variable rates may feel the pinch as variable rates have risen four per cent since the beginning of last year. This could lead some homeowners to switch and lock in a fixed rate, or potentially sell their home if they are no longer able to afford their increased mortgage payments. This is especially true for those with investment properties – as the pinch more strongly felt. If this happens, we could see an increase of homes on the market, priced to sell.

As home sales are a major driver of Canadian GDP, a significant drop in housing prices can have a strong impact on inflation. This could lead rates on the variable side to drop and potentially on the fixed side too – affecting long-term projections and therefore decreasing bond yields and rates.

so, what does this mean if you’re a first-time Buyer?

If you’re a first-time homebuyer in this market, there may be a silver lining amid all the uncertainty. The housing market is finally cooling down and home prices are dropping considerably, compared to what we have seen the last few years. This could make it easier for first-timers looking to enter the housing market as declining house prices have

increased their overall affordability. This is something that should continue in 2023. As a potential buyer, it is important to consider the long-term opportunity with lower prices, even as rates are higher right now.

When it comes to rates, if you are planning to buy a home this year, it’s a good idea to look into mortgage options with shorter terms, such as two-year fixed rate terms. With persistent inflation and a looming recession, it is looking more and more likely that by 2024 and more likely 2025, we may see fixed rates at levels that Canadians have become more accustomed to over the last 10 years (low- to mid-three-per-cent range). So, the short-term rate is a great way to get in at a higher rate now, but at a lower home price and potentially lower rate in a couple of years on renewal. As the old saying goes, “you date your rate, and marry your price.”

Uncertain economic times are nothing new, and this uneasiness in the housing market is a byproduct of the current environment. It is important to remember that you’re not alone and that your biggest advantage is finding a mortgage professional you can trust, such as those on our team at Homewise, and getting educated on the best available mortgage options before you sign on the dotted line.

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Jesse Abrams is Co-Founder at Homewise, a mortgage advisory and brokerage firm. thinkhomewise.com

WE’RE HERE NOW…

BUT WHAT’S OVER THE HORIZON?

BEn myErs

When the pandemic started in 2020, many people wondered when it would end, or if it would end. The Bank of Canada lowered interest rates to emergency levels and left them there. This ultimately resulted in bubble-like conditions in many housing markets across the country.

Since then, to combat high prices and inflation, the Bank of Canada has raised rates aggressively, driving down housing demand and average pricing. What does this mean for the real estate market in 2023? I asked a prominent developer for his opinions on a recent episode of my podcast: Where is Toronto going in the shortand long-term, and what should we know along the way?

Chris Wein, president and CEO of Lanterra Developments, has been in the trenches of Canadian development for more than 25 years. He has seen where we’re coming from, and has plenty of thoughts about where we might be heading. In our recent discussion, one of the first things he mentioned was the GTA’s unique position in North America, absorbing 70 per cent of the new Canadian immigrants.

Wein made the anecdote that if New York City did the same thing, it wouldn’t be 12 million people, it would be closer to 75 million. He sees Toronto more like a European capital, absorbing significant swaths of newcomers more attuned to London, England, than New York City.

What does this mean? It means with the most ambitious immigration

targets yet laid out by the Canadian federal government, due to this influx of new residents, Wein believes this market will continue to be highly active. Following, we touched on several topics impacting the future of Toronto’s development landscape.

Work AnD thE rEturn to thE offICE

Wein has faith in downtown Toronto and calls it vibrant and resilient. He noted that while Lanterra already has brought people back to the office and many other places are making similar moves, the former office system design is due to change. The amount of space used previously will be reduced. He envisions what he calls “boutique” commercial, a fusion of residential and commercial uses in a single building, typically with office space in the podium. Wein believes we’ll see fewer purpose-built office towers.

MobIlIty

Wein talked of a future where cities embrace more dynamic, in his own words, “micro-mobility” options. Micro-mobility involves transportation options such as electric scooters and bike shares, helping bridge the gap of those last few blocks that traditional public transit does not deliver its ridership to directly (often referred to as “the last mile”). Putting skin in the game beyond just idle chat, he noted that Lanterra buildings are now committed to providing their residents with micro-mobility options.

Wein was lukewarm on autonomous individual vehicles and electric cars, and he felt that autonomous public transit was the way forward. Without the need to have drivers, these vehicles could be

deployed more efficiently to where they’re needed.

AfforDAbIlIty

On the always pertinent topic of affordability, Wein proposes several changes. First, reduce taxes and levies on developers, which are the highest in North America. Continue increasing density in the GTA and outlying areas to increase housing stock in high-demand areas. And finally, streamlining Toronto’s zoning policies. He feels a housing czar could help with Toronto’s confusing and sometimes combative (between government agencies) zoning policies. He also said that streamlining much of the process and not making it as beholden to the decision-making of individual councillors could help get more shovels in the ground. He wants to see areas of Toronto have preapproved density limits.

Wein has operated in many Canadian and U.S. markets, and offers valuable opinions on the future of the market. I would suggest you read as much as you can from several different sources before you make a purchase decision in 2023. Surround yourself with an experienced team and do your homework. Good luck.

Ben Myers is the President of Bullpen Consulting, a boutique residential real estate advisory firm specializing in condominium and rental apartment market studies, forecasts and valuations for developers, lenders and land owners. Contact him at bullpenconsulting.ca and @benmyers29 on Twitter.

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HIGHMOUNT

A NEW KINGDOM COMMUNITY GROWS IN MARKHAM

A developer committed to building better communities and providing superior life experiences for its residents, Kingdom Development is gearing up to launch Highmount in Markham. Balancing the conveniences of an urban setting with the restful calm of being close to nature, this spectacular community is set on the former Sheridan Nurseries site on Hwy. 7 and Birchmount.

Spread over 14.5 acres, Highmount is a part of a multiphase condominium development which will be home to iconic mid- and high-rise residences nesting around a

verdant 1.3-acre community park. The project has been designed to fit in with the recent developments in the heart of Markham, while also responding to the nearby heritage district of Main Street Unionville.

Kingdom has partnered with some of the best design firms to create this visionary community. With the creative genius of Kirkor Architects giving shape to its modern architecture, and Tomas Pearce Interior Design putting its inimitable stamp on its luxurious interiors, Highmount is an expression of design excellence.

MARKHAM – A CITY OF OPPORTUNITIES

“Markham is strategically located in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada’s economic heartland.”

– Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti. Located in the York region, less than half an hour from downtown Toronto, Markham, with its culturally diverse population, fair cost of living

and phenomenal employment opportunities, is a big draw for newcomers. Markham is also at the centre of the second-largest tech cluster in Canada, making it one of the most sought-after cities to live in. Its proximity to charming Unionville and a plethora of parks, golf courses and other outdoor amenities, provides a great work/life balance.

A VIBRANT NEIGHBOURHOOD

Highmount’s stellar location is one of its bestselling features. Along with the tranquility that surrounds it, the development is also close to everyday necessities, be it shopping or dining, or top-rated schools and post-secondary institutions. Uptown Market, First Markham Place and Markham Town Square are all just a quick drive away.

A PRODUCT OF ITS SURROUNDING

The other important player here is nature. With the Rouge River as its quiet neighbour, Highmount is a butterfly-shaped midrise, incorporating both eastern and western design influences. This intimate eight-storey building’s linear contemporary architecture has an air of quiet sophistication and mirrors the serenity of its verdant surroundings. Striking a perfect balance between form and function, architecture and nature, and innovation and sustainable practices, Highmount is designed to enhance the rhythm of life.

AMPLE LIFESTYLE AMENITY SPACES

Beginning with the spectacular lobby, Highmount is home to indulgent amenities. With more than 20,000 sq. ft. of indoor and outdoor space, the amenities are magnificent yet decidedly practical. The community is designed to provide opportunities for recreation and relaxation, social interaction and active living through carefully mapped-out amenity spaces.

The development’s custom planting design complements the local landscape and promotes green culture on the site. A colourful planting palette in the outdoor amenity space adds all-year-round interest. Buffer planting screens on patios maximizes the privacy of units, while providing aesthetic and environmental value. The project’s Green roofs further increase sustainability and biodiversity.

TRENDSETTING SUITE DESIGN

Highmount offers a vast selection of floorplans, ranging from onebedrooms perfect for young professionals, to two-bedroom plus den units great for those looking

to raise a family. With every suite, residents are offered space-efficient layouts, a choice of colour palettes, hand-picked by the renowned Tomas Pearce design team, and generous outdoor spaces in the form of balconies, patios and terraces.

STATE-OF-THE-ART SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY

Highmount also prioritizes smart living. With SmartOne Home in all suites, residents have peace of mind knowing they’re constantly informed of the health and safety of their home and community. With every integration, the development becomes more reliable, flexible and connected. All of which enriches the way residents live.

Highmount is coming soon to Hwy. 7 and Birchmount. Don’t miss your chance to live in this sought-after neighbourhood in the heart of Markham. Register now at highmountbykingdom.com.

All renderings are artists’ concept

mIChAeL KLASSeN

UP-AND-COMING LOCATIONS

POPULAR FOR SUBSTANTIAL ROI

In a recent column, I mentioned keeping an eye out for up-andcoming areas when looking for a preconstruction home or condominium. As an area builds up, residential real estate will increase in value, creating an attractive return on investment. Plus, if you are willing to live or invest outside the GTA, you can find amazing deals.

Stratford, for example, is known for its theatre and arts focus, with the Stratford Festival attracting more than a million people each year – but it is also home to a robust automotive industry and technology clusters. This forward-thinking city invested in fibreoptics to make the entire municipality “connected.” Residents can use their devices anywhere, even walking down the street. For years, the City has been bidding for technology contracts from government and private companies to bring in work opportunities for highly educated tech employees. The area features great restaurants and a culinary school, as well. Average townhome prices range from the low- to mid-$600,000s to the $800,000s; and detached from about $950,000 to $1.2 million. Stratford has extremely low vacancy rates for residential rentals (less than one per cent) and commercial venues. Home prices are on the rise, so wise home shoppers are buying now.

Niagara Falls also offers some of the best home prices in the Golden Horseshoe. Townhomes tend to run from the $700,000s to the $900,000s, and detached homes from $1 million to about $1.4 million. Condos range from $650 to $900 per sq. ft. These prices are $50,000 to $150,000 less than comparable homes in the GTA. People in the industry are calling Niagara “the new Brampton,” because you can still find 45- and 50-ft. lot sizes there. A 2,600-sq.-ft. home on a 45-ft. lot will go for about $1.2 million in Niagara, whereas in Richmond Hill, it would be $2.5 million. Niagara residents enjoy great highway access and the GO train with day service available to take riders to Union Station in Toronto. In two years, the new University of Niagara Falls Canada will open, making the city even more desirable. Besides being a natural wonder, the region is also home to renowned hospitals and outstanding wineries. It’s an amazing place to live, work and play.

Another area to consider is Grand Bend, offering beautiful beachfront

communities on Lake Huron. The beach feeling is enhanced by a boardwalk with shops, eateries and entertainment, as well as boating and other water sports. Because of this, Grand Bend is often referred to as “Florida North.” With the population swelling to about 50,000 each summer, rentals near the water can average about $6,000 per week. Even with higher interest rates, the ROI for investors is substantial. Average lowrise home prices in Grand Bend range from the $700,000s to $1.1 million for detached, and those include a high level of features and finishes.

For outstanding real estate deals, think outside the GTA.

Michael Klassen is the Broker of Record, Eleven Eleven Real Estate Services. Based in Toronto, this firm is a residential preconstruction listing brokerage. 1111realty.ca

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WHY 2023 WILL BE

A BETTER YEAR FOR HOMEBUYERS

By WAYNE KARL

Higher interest rates, concerns for the economy, inflation… 2022 wasn’t the easiest of years for prospective new-home buyers. But there are reasons to be optimistic, even positive, about the road ahead this year and into 2024 and beyond.

Let’s take a look at some of the key factors.

INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION

The Bank of Canada increased its influential overnight rate target a number of times last year to curb high inflation. It’s slowly working, though the rate hikes have caused many buyers to be cautious. Homebuying activity, as a result, has cooled.

Some experts believe BoC may introduce another rate hike in its next announcement on Jan. 25, but following that, possibly beginning in the second quarter, we could see an end to this trend.

“The second half of 2022 saw one of the slowest real estate markets in the modern history of Canada,” Jesse

Abrams, co-founder and CEO of Homewise, told Condo Life. “Many buyers and sellers were waiting on the sidelines to understand where the volatile, increasing rate environment would end up, and what that would mean for the market and prices. In 2023, we could see an influx of sellers in Q2 who will not be able to wait any longer, especially as they fear losing more of their home value with prices dropping. This could spur on the market and be the opportunity many first-time homebuyers have been waiting for to get into the market with lowering prices. Nobody has a crystal ball, but Q2 could be an interesting time for Canadian real estate.”

Senior economist, best-selling author and keynote speaker Ted Tsiakopoulos concurs, suggesting that conditions could move further into buyers’ market territory early or mid this year, especially if some buyers cancel closings, or should some investors exit the market.

LOWER PRICES WON’T LAST FOREVER

The biggest challenge for many prospective homebuyers is saving for a down payment. With some home prices experiencing downward pressure, buyers today need less money to make a down payment. For example, with the minimum down payment for homes of less than $1 million at five per cent, a home that was $600,000 last year may cost $540,000 today. That five-per-cent down payment previously $30,000 is now $27,000.

So, while rates are higher and some home prices are declining, saving for a down payment has become easier for potential buyers in – for now – since we still face a well-documented shortage of new housing that will take time to address.

MORE HOMES BUILT FASTER

The More Homes Built Faster Act was given royal ascent last November, supporting the provincial government’s efforts to tackle the housing supply crisis and get 1.5 million homes built over the next 10 years. Controversial though it may be, More Homes Built Faster is intended to remove unnecessary costs and cut through red tape and other bottlenecks that stand in the way of new homes being built.

A RETURN TO NORMALITY

I predict that 2023 is the year of the return to normality. For example, we should see a return to the normalization of mortgage interest rates later in the year. The 10-year average is approximately 3.3 per cent, so anything around four per cent is reasonable. And when buying a pre-construction condo, closing typically occurs between 2.5 and five years later, when rates will have stabilized even more. However, with new immigration and rising construction costs, there will likely be upward pressure on prices, so buying sooner rather than later is wise.

Rental rates are extremely high – in some places, already up to an unprecedented $4 per sq. ft. – which is great news for investors. Plus, some developers are offering great incentives. Now is the time for buyers to jump in. Keep your eye on the prize and enjoy leisurely sales office visits without line-ups.

DEBBIE COSIC CEO and Founder In2ition Realty

GOOD LOCATIONS AND VALUE

Last year brought a lot of uncertainties to the market. As a developer with more than 30 years of experience, we have been through a lot of ups and downs. Our government has tackled inflation as much as it can, however, supply and labour shortage issues still exist. More efforts are required to put towards supply and manpower issues, so that new construction developers can afford to build quality homes with better price for customers.

Ballantry has a positive expectation of 2023 GTA real estate market because its economy remains strong, which will attract more residents and new immigrants. Good locations, well-designed and good quality homes are still the main driving force behind this market. In 2023, Ballantry will continue to bring projects that are in good locations, with good value to our customers.

DAVID HILL President Ballantry Homes

LEADING THE WAY

This year brings great hope and possibilities for our industry to lead the way economically. At Baker Real Estate Inc., we’ve just completed our second strongest year since being founded in 1993. We have every reason to believe we will continue this momentum in 2023. This month, we are launching Olive Residences condominium at Yonge and Finch, and the response has been tremendous.

Demand for new-construction condominiums is great for numerous reasons, starting with buyers having anywhere from two to more than five years before closing. Purchasing pre-construction is a smart way to build equity. In addition, mortgage rates will have normalized by the time buyers take possession.

With 430,000 new residents coming to Canada in 2022, we set a new immigration record. This also means increased demand for homeownership and rental opportunities.

BARBARA LAWLOR CEO Baker Real Estate Inc.

CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY

For 2023, we foresee a positive year for the real estate market, with a four- to five-per-cent increase in average sale prices across the GTA.

We anticipate supply levels to remain low throughout 2023, with many homeowners comfortable not selling due to existing preferred mortgage rates secured prior to the recent 2022 hikes.

We also predict mortgage rates flattening out by the second quarter of 2023, with the possibility of a minor rate drop by the third quarter. This would signal the bottom of the market where we would see buyers start coming back.

This would, of course, be a response to the BoC getting inflation under control, which we estimate being achieved in the second quarter of 2023, somewhere in the four- to five-per-cent range. This would be a boost to consumer confidence and start to change the trajectory of the market in the right direction.

If these predictions (supply, interest rates and inflation) come to fruition, along with the continued influx of immigrants to Ontario, we should have a positive year by the third quarter of 2023.

FRANK UCCELLO Manager of Sales StateView Homes

HOUSING IS A MAJOR GOVERNMENT AGENDA ISSUE

Housing is a major agenda item for our political leaders, as evidenced by More Homes Built Faster and in our last round of federal, Ontario provincial and municipal elections.

In the municipal elections last October, for example, housing supply – specifically, the development approval processes of the province’s 400-plus municipalities –was under the microscope.

Municipal approval timelines for new housing in the GTA have proven to be among the worst of major municipalities across Canada, and add significant costs to new home purchasers. The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) estimates the average delay in approvals adds approximately $50,000 in cost to an 800-sq.-ft. condo, and $100,000 to the cost of a single-family home.

“As inventories increase slightly, we see new home prices starting to moderate, which means the market is behaving as expected,” says Dave Wilkes, BILD president and CEO. “However, with continued high interest rates, hundreds of thousands of Canadians face the formidable challenge of finalizing financing on homes they bought during the pandemic. The federal government needs to be mindful of the impacts of its broad monetary policy on all homeowners, but especially new-home owners. The province and municipal governments, for their part, must maintain their focus on increasing housing supply.”

RECORD IMMIGRATION

Two factors that should help the housing market in 2023: Record immigration and rising rental rates.

Due to market uncertainty and the availability of trades, some. developers are postponing new launches. The most successful openings post Q1-2022 were priced reasonably. Investors are expecting price rollbacks and discounts on anything that closes within the next three years.

Bullpen is forecasting about 14,000 to 16,000 GTA new condo sales in 2023, down from the typical 20,000 to 22,000. New condo price growth has been 10 to 15 per cent annually over the past 18 months (per-sq.-ft.), and our forecast sees a fall to the low single-digits by Q4 2023.

BEN MYERS President Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc.

ADVANCING ALL PLANNING

After a correction to home prices in 2022, it is likely that the downward trend will continue, albeit more modestly. Aggressive interest rate hikes last year mean it’s going to take more time for the market to stabilize. People are understandably hesitant to list their home and/or enter new home purchase agreements when sales and prices are falling, but as economic conditions become more predictable, a return to a balanced market should follow.

As a developer and builder, we are continuing to advance all planning to launch two new communities in 2023 – Victoria Annex in Collingwood, and Craighurst Crossing in the village of Craighurst, near Barrie.

MIKE PARKER Vice-President, Sales and Marketing Georgian Communities

THE HOMEBUILDING INDUSTRY

IS THE ENGINE THAT DRIVES ONTARIO’S ECONOMY

MIKE COLLINS-WILLIAMS

The homebuilding industry is the engine that drives the provincial economy, supporting a remarkably wide range of businesses across various sectors. Residential construction at large creates thousands of jobs at a local level, and helps local communities grow and thrive. In fact, in 2021, a total of 1.44 million on- and off-site jobs were created in new home construction, renovation and repair across the country, making the sector one of Canada’s largest employers.

In Ontario alone, the residential construction industry supported approximately 555,000 on- and offsite jobs in careers as wide-ranging as architecture and engineering to carpentry and plumping. This work resulted in $37.7 billion in wages that show up in other consumer spending across the entire economy and which helps increase economic activity:

• New home construction in Ontario created more than 220,000 jobs, resulting in $15 billion in wages

• The home renovation and repair industry created close to 334,000 jobs with $22.7 billion in wages that significantly contribute to an active and healthy local economy.

Residential construction also brings a healthy amount of economic ripple effects. Large projects not only provide employment for thousands of local workers, but also contribute to the preservation and growth of other local businesses that directly or indirectly

cater to their needs. From suppliers, manufactures and subcontractors, to restaurants, coffee shops, retail stores and home services.

Think about all the components of a new home – from appliances to flooring, bricks and the roof to the furniture and electronics – that are purchased when people move in. Each new building brings new jobs, increased local spending, neighbourhood improvements, infrastructure and more.

The homebuilding industry leads Ontario’s socioeconomic growth and is also the largest single wealthbuilder for most families, as it provides for $76.9 billion in economic investment. Homeownership is a long-term investment that provides financial stability. It functions like an automatic savings mechanism that helps families build wealth through home value appreciation and by building home equity.

The residential construction and renovation industry is an investment-led sector that generates employment, research and development, commerce and infrastructure, and is vital for economic growth and prosperity. It is a major pillar of our economy on both provincial

and national levels. On a local level, the economic impact of the industry is outstanding. In fact, the economic output of just the West End Home Builders’ Association (WEHBA) members – which are based in Hamilton, Burlington and the surrounding regions – is larger than the entire province of Saskatchewan’s residential construction economic output.

A building is just the starting point of an unravelling ribbon of business agreements that touches thousands of different professionals by the time it is unfolded. When the WEHBA embarked on our rebranding exercise, the main goal was to think of a brand that reflects the inclusiveness and business diversity of our industry. The emphasis on “WE” connotes strong collaboration, and it recognizes all the various trades, services and other intermediaries that come together to make the industry such a strong foundation in our community.

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Mike Collins-Williams, RPP, MCIP, is CEO West End Home Builders’ Association. westendhba.ca.

OAK PARK

SOPHISTICATED LIVING FROM BALLANTRY

Oakville’s Uptown Core is blossoming. Cool urban restaurants and cafes mingle with greenspaces and open plazas in this vibrant walkable Oak Park district. In this great neighbourhood, Ballantry Homes proudly presents a new urban landmark that blends the prestige of Oakville with the energy of the Uptown Core. Introducing the first phase of Villages of Oak Park, a stunning new condominium from an established developer with history and deep roots in the area.

The Villages of Oak Park is a new, master-planned, multi-phased community that offers a fine selection of luxurious one-, two- and threebedroom plus den suites. A sleek synthesis of glass with modern elegant precast elements, the design radiates modernity with a touch of the classic. The exceptional selection suites will be complemented with rich lifestyle amenities designer to inspire the lives of its residents. This is sophistication at a whole new level.

CASUAL MODERN SOPHISTICATION

Casual modern elegance defines the interiors at The Villages of Oak Park. Smart suite layouts maximize space, making room for comfortable living and lavish entertaining. Sleek gourmet kitchen finishes include exquisite countertops, fine cabinetry, quality appliance package and more. Sip your morning coffee on the wide balcony overlooking great views. Enjoy family moments in the sunlit and spacious open concept living room. This is contemporary urban living at its best.

Every suite comes adorned with top quality finishes curated by Ballantry’s award-winning design team. Plus, an exceptional selection of premium upgrades lets you personalize your suite to your individual taste. Bright master bedrooms offer all the privacy and relaxation you need while sumptuous ensuites let you pamper yourself in superb style. In every element, you will experience our

deep-rooted commitment to quality, craftsmanship and attention to detail.

A FUSION OF LIFE AND LEISURE

The Villages of Oak Park offers its residents exclusive access to top class luxury and fitness amenities. The elegant hotel style lobby lounge offers a great welcome for your guests. Stay in shape at the modern fitness studio. Get your work done in the open-concept co-work area. Invite friends and loved ones for a celebration in the elegantly designed party room for your social events.

Welcome to the Lounge, a cool modern space to hang out with friends and family. With comfortable seating, contemporary co-work spaces and fast, reliable Wi-Fi, the Lounge is perfect for both socializing as well as getting a spot of work done. The Rooftop Terrace includes a great selection of indoor and outdoor gathering spaces. Fire up the barbecue in the outdoor oasis.

With landscaped pergolas and ample seating, your party will hit all the high spots.

LIVE AT THE CENTRE OF IT ALL

When it comes to great location, Oak Park has it all. The area around the intersection of Dundas and Trafalgar offers an abundance of amenities – from schools, shops and parks to community centres, libraries, arenas, sports fields and more. Shop for everything from fashions to homewares at Oakville Place, Rio Centre, Trafalgar Village or Upper Oakville Shopping Centre.

Get your fill of fitness, fresh air and sunshine at lush green parks and trails. Walk your dog, play frisbee with the family, spread out a picnic. Oakville Park, Lions Valley Park and North Park are some of the great outdoor destinations near you.

This neighbourhood is ideal for students and commuters too. Some of Oakville’s finest elementary, middle and high schools are mere steps away. Sheridan College’s Trafalgar campus offers a wealth of post-secondary programs in business, technology, arts and sciences. The QEW and Hwy. 403 offer quick and easy connections

to the rest of the GTA. Oakville GO station is just a short drive from home. Local transit routes, bike paths and a vibrant walkable location make it easy to get around for work, study or leisure.

BUILDING DREAMS FOR MORE THAN THREE DECADES

Ballantry Homes was founded in 1989 by two real estate veterans, David Hill and Bobby Bhoola, with the vision to build dreams for aspiring homeowners. Ballantry Homes is committed to delivering the kind of homes that families aspire to own. To do this, they have assembled

a topnotch team of professionals who are cutting edge in their fields – from planning, architecture and interior design to construction, sales, marketing and customer service. Over the last three decades, Ballantry Homes has developed and built more than 10,000 exceptional homes across southern Ontario.

The Villages of Oak Park is coming soon. Modern sophisticated one-, two- and two-bedroom-plus suites. Register now to be the first to know more and get an exclusive buying opportunity at this fabulous new community. ballantryhomes.com

ALL RENDERINGS ARE ARTISTS’ CONCEPT

CONDO PROFILES

Bristol Place Brampton

NorthShore Burlington

developer: SOLMAR DEVELOPMENT CORP.

style: Highrise size: Starting from 432 sq. ft. features:

• Two 48 storey towers on a podium within a landscaped courtyard

• 1 bed, 1 bed + den, 2 bed, 3 bed

• Steps to Go, VIA Rail, and ZUM rapid transit

• Surrounded by shopping, dining, arts and culture

• Party room, gym, yoga, lounge, outdoor BBQ & dining area, work stations and more contact: solmar.ca location: 199 Main St N, Brampton, ON L6X 1N2

developer: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

style: Mid-Rise size: 8 Storeys, 387 Units features: • 1 Bedroom Condos starting at $499,990, 2 & 3 bedroom also available

• Lobby, Gym, Co-Working Space, Party Room, Private Dining Room with Catering Kitchen

• Rooftop with BBQs & Party Lounge Area

• Coming soon to Burlington register at: MyNorthShore.ca location: 490 Plains Rd E near Plains Rd. & King Rd., Burlington

Highmount by Kingdom Markham

Branthaven Mississauga

developer: BRANTHAVEN

developer: KINGDOM DEVELOPMENTS

style: Mid-rise features: • Conveniently positioned steps to the Rouge River and Cineplex Cinemas Markham VIP with access to transit, shopping, parks & trails.

• Suites with 9’ to 10’ ceilings, custom-designed cabinetry, integrated smart system features, and more.

• Amenities focused on wellness and balanced living.

• Available suites range from 1 Bedroom to 2 Bedroom + Den contact: highmountbykingdom.com location: Highway 7 and Birchmount

project name: Birch Condos & Towns at Lakeview Village style: Highrise Condos and Towns features: 298 Condos & 59 Towns prices from: TBD features: • Part of Mississauga’s most anticipated master planned waterfront community, Lakeview Village.

• Waterfront trails, beaches, parks, schools and shops

• Fully furnished indoor and outdoor amenities designed by II BY IV DESIGN

• Rooftop terrace, fitness facility, dining/social lounge, media/games lounge and pet spa

• BH Home TechnologyTM , a Smart Home solution providing integrated building/home access and control system

• 1-3 bedroom condo units

• Located between Port Credit and Long Branch Go Stations contact: Branthaven.com location: Hydro Road, Mississauga

CONDO PROFILES

Central Park North York

The Villages of Oakpark Oakville

Central Park Common – a three-acre urban park offering year-round, outdoor event programming

55,000 sq. ft. of resort-style amenities including coworking space, skating rink, indoor and outdoor saltwater pools, privately operated childrens’ daycare, EV charging stations in all parking areas contact: centralparktoronto.com • (416) 252-3000 location: 1200 Sheppard Avenue East

developer: Ballantry Homes

project name: The Villages of Oakpark style: Highrise size: 500 to 1504 sq.ft. features: • Easy access to the QEW, Highways 403 and 407, and the Oakville GO Station.

Select from luxurious 1, 2 and 2-bedroom+den suites.

Rich amenities include gym, party room, rooftop terrace, lounge, co-work space. contact: ballantryhomes.com location: 90 Oak Park Blvd, Oakville

Etobicoke Westerly HR Islington & Dundas tridel.com

Etobicoke Curio Condos MR 801 The Queensway marlinspring.com

Etobicoke Humberwood Heights CTH/FTH 50 Humberwood Blvd. tributecommunities.com

Etobicoke Cypress at Pinnacle Etobicoke HR 5475 Dundas St. W. pinnacleinternational.ca

Etobicoke Verge MR Islington & The Queensway vergecondos.com

Etobicoke 36 Zorra Condominiums MR 36 Zorra altreedevelopments.com

Markham/Unionville Panda Markham HR 8200 Warden Ave. lifetimedevelopments.com 8.

Markham/Unionville Varley Condo Residences LR 20 Fred Varley tributecommunities.com 9. Markham Canvas on the Rouge MR Donald Cousens Pkwy & Ninth Line flatogroup.com 10. Markham Gallery Towers at Downtown Markahm HR 162 Enterprise Blvd. downtownmarkham.ca 11. Markham Highmount MR 4077 Hwy. 7 highmountbykingdom.com 12. Mississauga Birch at Lakeview Village MR/TH Lakeshore & Dixie Rd. branthaven.com 13. Mississauga Harbourwalk at Lakeview HR 1260 Lakeshore Rd. East tridel.com 14. Mississauga Perla Towers and Amber at Pinnacle Uptown HR 5044 Hurontario St. pinnacleinternational.ca 15. Mississauga Artform Condos MR 86 Dundas St. E. artformbyemblemdevelopments.com 16. Mississauga Gemma at Pinnacle Uptown HR 5044 Hurontario St. pinnacleuptown.com 17. North York Express 2 MR Tippett Rd./Wilson subway express2condos.ca 18. North York Central Park HR Sheppard Ave. East & Leslie St. amexon.com 19. North York The Diamond HR 5336 Yonge St. diamond.diamantedevelopment.com 20. Oshawa U.C. Condos Tower 3 HR Simcoe St. N. & Winchester Rd. W. tributecommunities.com 21. Pickering Vupoint HR Kingston Rd. & Liverpool Rd. tributecommunities.com 22. Scarborough Pinnnacle Toronto East HR 3260 Sheppard Ave. E. pinnacleinternational.ca 23. Scarborough FourMe HR Markham Rd. & Ellesmere fourmecondos.com 24. Toronto 111 River St. Condos HR 111 River St. lifetimedevelopments.com 25. Toronto Lawrence Hill Urban Towns CTH Don Mills & Lawrence lawrencehillurbantowns.com 26. Toronto 489 Wellington St. W. HR 489 Wellington St. W. lifetimedevelopments.com 27. Toronto 500 Dupont St. MR 500 Dupont St. lifetimedevelopments.com 28. Toronto Aqualuna at Bayside HR 200 Queens Quay East tridel.com 29. Toronto Artistry Condos HR 292 Dundas St. W. tributeartistrycondos.ca 30. Toronto Panda Condos HR Yonge & Dundas. lifetimedevelopments.com 31. Toronto Skytower at Pinnacle One Yonge HR 1 Yonge St. pinnacleinternational.ca 32. Toronto The Prestige at Pinnacle One Yonge HR 1 Yonge St. pinnacleinternational.ca 33. Toronto Tridel at the Well MR/HR Spadina Ave. & Wellington St. thewelltoronto.com 34. Toronto Via Bloor HR Bloor & Parliament. tridel.com 35. Toronto The PJ Condos HR 283 Adelaide St. W. pinnacleinternational.ca 36. Toronto 36 Eglinton Ave. W. HR 36 Eglinton Ave. W. lifetimedevelopments.com 37. Toronto Linx Condominiums HR Danforth & Main tributecommunicties.com 38. Toronto Y&S Condos HR 2161 Yonge St. tributecommunities.com 39. Toronto Burke Condos HR Bloor & Sherbourne burkebyconcert.com 40. Toronto MRKT Alexandra Park MR HR Dundas & Spadina tridel.com 41. Toronto 181 East HR 181 Sheppard Ave. East stafford.ca 42. Toronto Avenue & Park MR Avenue Rd. & Bedford stafford.ca 43. Toronto 50 at Wellesley Station HR 50 Wellesley St. East pureplaza.com 44. Toronto No. 1 Yorkville HR 1 Yorkville Ave. pureplaza.com 45. Toronto Theatre District Residences HR Adelaide & Widmer pureplaza.com 46. Toronto Bijou on Bloor MR 2450 Bloor St. West pureplaza.com

Toronto The Briar on Avenue CTH 368 Briar Hill Ave. pureplaza.com

Toronto One Seventy HR Spadina & Queen St. West pureplaza.com

Toronto King West & Charlotte HR King St. West & Charlotte pureplaza.com

Toronto Forest Hill Private Residences MR 2 Forest Hill Rd. foresthillresidences.com

Toronto Oscar Residences MR 500 Dupont St. W. at Bathurst oscarresidences.com

Toronto Whitehaus HR Yonge & Eglinton lifetimedevelopments.com

Locate properties using the map on the previous page

BUILDERS IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO INCLUDE YOUR PREVIEW REGISTRATION, NEW RELEASE OR SITE OPENING IN THIS FEATURE, JUST EMAIL THE DETAILS TO EDITORIAL@NEXTHOME.CA

Catharines

1. Ancaster Meadowlands MR/CTH 559 Garner Rd E elitemdgroup.com 2. Brampton DUO Condos HR Malta Ave. & Steeles Ave. duocondos.ca 3. Brampton Bristol Place HR 199 Main St. North solmar.ca 4. Brantford Station Sixty Lofts MR 60 Market St. S. elitemdgroup.com 5. Burlington Affinity Condos MR Plains Rd. E. & Filmandale Rd. rosehavenhomes.com 6. Burlington Millcroft Towns CTH Appleby Line & Taywood Dr. branthavenmillcroft.com 7. Burlington North Shore MR/TH Plains Rd. East nationalhomes.com 8. Burlington NorthShore MR North Shore Blvd. & Plains Rd. mynorthshore.ca 9. Fonthill One Twenty Condos LR Rice Rd. & Highway 20 mountainview.com 10. Fonthill One Fonthill Condominium Collection MR Rice Rd onefonthillcondos.com 11. Grimsby Century Condos HR Main St. East & Baker St. South. desantishomes.com 12. Hamilton 1 Jarvis HR 1 Jarvis 1jarvis.com 13. Hamilton The Design District HR 41 Wilson Street emblemdevcorp.com 14. Hamilton Steeltown City Co. MR/CTH Fennell Ave. E. & Upper Ottawa St. elitemdgroup.com 15. London White Oaks Urban Towns CTH London elitemdgroup.com 16. Niagara Region Lusso Urban Towns CTH Martindale Rd. & Grapeview Dr. lucchettahomes.com 17. Oakville The Greenwich Condos at Oakvillage MR Trafalgar Rd. & Dundas branthaven.com 18. Oakville Synergy MR McCraney St. E. & Sixth Line branthaven.com 19. Oakville The Randall Residences MR Randall St. & Lakeshore Rd. E. randallresidences.com 20. Oakville Upper West Side at Oakvillage MR 351 Dundas St. E. upperwestsidecondos.ca 21. Oakville Greenwich Condos at Oakvilage HR Trafalgar Rd. & Dundas St. branthaven.com 22. Oakville Villages of Oakpark MR Dundas & Trafalgar ballantryhomes.com 23. St. Catharines 88 James HR 88 James elitemdgroup.com 24. Stoney Creek Casa Di Torre MR 980 Queenston Rd. branthaven.com

ADVERTISER INDEX

— Find ads easily inside this edition

Central Park – Amexon 25, 36

Home + Reno Show 7

Village of Oakpark – Ballantry Homes 25, 35

Stanley Tools 25

Birch – Branthaven 4, 5, 24

Highmount – Kingdom 10, 11, 24

North Shore – National Homes 2, 24

INTEREST RATES, MONETARY POLICY AFFECT GTA NEW HOME SALES IN 2022

The GTA saw the lowest level of new home sales last year since 2018, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) reports.

Overall, in 2022, there were 25,400 new homes sold in the GTA, according to Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new home market intelligence. This was 29 per cent below the 10-year average.

Sales of condominium units, including units in low-, medium- and highrise buildings, stacked townhouses and loft units, with 20,917 units sold in 2022, were 12 per cent below the 10-year average.

Bristol Place – Solmar 3, 24

High Line Condos – Branthaven 4, 5

West & Post – Branthaven 4, 5

BUILDERS

Amexon 25, 36

Ballantry Homes 25, 35

Branthaven 4, 5, 24

Single-family homes, including detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses), accounted for 4,483 new home sales in 2022. This was 64 per cent below the 10-year average.

“The hesitation new home buyers showed in the latter half of 2022 was no doubt largely the result of continued high interest rates and tightening monetary policy,” says Dave Wilkes, BILD president and CEO. “With interest rates at the top of the cycle, the further two per cent imposed by the minimum qualifying rate will almost certainly prove to be an insurmountable hurdle for thousands of new home buyers trying to finalize financing this spring. The federal government needs to reconsider its approach to monetary policy so families can purchase the homes they need without artificial obstacles.”

“GTA new home sales started strongly in 2022 before easing in the second half of the year with annual sales sitting at a 4-year low,” adds Edward Jegg, research manager with Altus Group. “However, prices steadied in December after months of declines, as buyer demand and builder supply were more closely aligned.”

Kingdom 10, 11, 24

National Homes 2, 24

December contributed only 563 new home sales to the 2022 total. It was the second lowest level of new home sales for the month of December after December 2008. With 398 condominium unit sales, it was also the second lowest level of condo sales for December, since December 2008.

Solmar 3, 24

After five months of declining prices, the benchmark price for new condominiums rose in December, compared to the previous month, to $1.13 million. This is down 2.8 per cent over the last 12 months. The benchmark price for new single-family homes rose, after four months of declining prices, to $1.75 million, down 4.2 per cent over the last 12 months.

BUILDING THE HOMES WE NEED REQUIRES

EMBRACING CHANGE

DavE WILkES

Every great achievement begins with a goal, and our industry has a monumental one: To build 1.5 million homes in Ontario in the next decade. This is the number of new homes that Ontario’s Housing Affordability Task Force identified last year as necessary to address our housing supply shortage and bring back affordability and balance. Meeting this goal will require our industry and decision-makers to embrace change in four areas – people, productivity, processes and policy – this year and in the decade to come.

To build 1.5 million new homes in 10 years, we need to increase the number of annual housing starts in Ontario by 50 per cent over the highest number we have been able to achieve since 1987 – approximately 100,000 in 2021 – and maintain that level for 10 years. Hundreds of thousands of workers are required for the task, not only skilled trades but also managers, planners, architects, designers, lawyers and other professions.

Like all other sectors, the building industry is facing the urgent challenge of attracting and retaining workers as boomers retire. We need to cultivate all pipelines of talent, including those who may not traditionally have considered careers in construction and development. The federal government can help by ensuring that some of the nearly 500,000 new immigrants to arrive in Canada annually are in the skilled trades.

However, simply replacing the existing workforce will not be enough to meet the ambitious target of building 1.5 million new homes in 10 years. We need to embrace new technologies, new methods and automation to increase the productivity of each worker in our sector.

Building housing and offices involves many interrelated processes across multiple jurisdictions, regulatory bodies and authorities. The provincial government has brought in legislation to help streamline many of the processes that have been delaying the approval and building of new homes, particularly at the municipal level. Even as the effects of these process enhancements begin to be felt, we must remain proactive. Continually seeking innovations and efficiencies in all processes will help us speed up getting shovels in the ground.

Finally, sound housing policy is essential to addressing our housing supply and affordability crisis. All stakeholders must work with

municipalities on implementing the new policies put in place by the province, and we must collectively assess and not be afraid to call for changes or new policy where required.

As 2023 begins, our industry is looking forward to the challenge ahead of us: Building the housing and work spaces future residents of the GTA will need. We invite policymakers at all levels of government to join us in embracing the change necessary for this great achievement.

Wilkes is President

the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), the voice of the homebuilding, land development and professional renovation industry in the GTA. For the latest industry news and new home data, follow BILD on Twitter, @bildgta or visit bildgta.ca.

+moRE CONTENT oNLINE nexthome.ca

Dave

and CEO of

Dundas and Trafalgar is buzzing. The newest landmark in downtown Oakville soars above the intersection, with incredible views of all that the city has to o er. Presented by Ballantry Homes, The Villages of Oak Park is a new, master-planned, multi-phased community coming soon to the neighbourhood of Oak Park. Select from luxurious 1, 2 and 2-bedroom+den suites. Enjoy the endless amenities o ered to residents. Close to parks, trails, shops and restaurants, The Villages of Oak Park o ers easy access to the QEW, Highways 403 and 407, and the Oakville GO Station. This is sophistication at a whole new level.