TOM S TA NDAGE
What’s over the horizon? w Will 2021 prove to be a lucky number?
Tom Standage ► Tom is deputy editor of The Economist, editor of The World in 2021, and host of its future-gazing podcast, The World Ahead.
Illustration ► Aurore de La Morinerie
Do you feel lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a dice, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers and horse racing. It’s also the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers. All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer, of course, is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. The race is on between injection and infection, as vaccines are rolled out on one hand and the virus mutates on the other. Increasingly, though, the prospect of a return to some kind of normality seems within reach. But it will be a new normal, rather than a return to the pre-pandemic world – and getting there will be a bumpy ride. So here are some things to watch for in the coming months. First, the economy. The world’s wealthiest consumers are sitting on piles of cash. Will they spend it? Excess savings in America – the amount by which consumer saving exceeded normal levels of saving
– exceeded 6 per cent of GDP in the first nine months of 2020 alone. It’s a similar story in Britain, Canada and Australia. The result could be a spending spree and a strong global recovery. Too strong, perhaps: there is an active debate about whether this could cause a dangerous rise in inflation. Another source of uncertainty is how, when consumers open their wallets again, their spending habits will have shifted. Will they want to spend less on goods and more on experiences they have been denied during the pandemic, such as luxury holidays or fancy meals? Much depends on the answers, not just for the luxury industry but for the economy as a whole. And that’s the second thing to watch for: the extent to which pandemic-era habits will endure. Whether it’s working from home, online shopping, food delivery, remote learning or mobile payments, adoption of a wide range of technologies has been accelerated by several years in the past few months. Clearly people are not going to keep doing everything virtually, but nor are they going to give up these new behaviours entirely.
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