ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN BORDER FIGHTING PROMPTS RUSSIA TO CHANGE STRATEGY

VLADIMIR PUTIN’S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN ILHAM ALIYEV AND THEN-PRESIDENT OF ARMENIA SERZH SARGSYAN, AUGUST 2014. SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU

21 July 2020

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN BORDER FIGHTING PROMPTS RUSSIA TO CHANGE STRATEGY

The latest flare-up in the Armenia-Azerbaijan armed conflict does not change much in the balance of power through the South Caucasus. With their military potential and deals they had sealed with other states, neither country is poised to emerge a victor. Most importantly, after the latest border spat, Russia has shifted its stand on the feud both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked for the past three decades. Recent years particularly saw the Kremlin’s tilt from a pro-Armenian view towards the center, to mediate possible peace talks rather than take sides with Armenia.

Over a few days in mid-July, the heavy fighting erupted on the ArmeniaAzerbaijan border, making it the deadliest escalation since the April 2016 Four-Day War. Interestingly, clashes occurred north of Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of NagornoKarabakh, and not there. Unlike Turkey whose officials declared firm support for Azerbaijan –– the Turkish defense minister held a meeting with his Azeri counterpart –– Russia took on a neutral stance, chiefly to Armenia’s sour regret. It was by no accident that the country’s military stirred up a military clash outside NagornoKarabakh.