10 minute read
From Alaska to Asia and Beyond
Katja-Elisabeth Herrmann Eufracio
On March 13, the Biden administration approved the controversial Willow Project in Alaska. ConocoPhillips’ massive Willow oil drilling project in Alaska’s North Slope was originally approved by the Trump administration in 2020. The Biden administration ultimately reduced the project from five to three drilling sites.
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In early April, the U.S. Department of Energy approved exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a facility planned for Alaska to Asia. The approval came on the same day that U.S. climate envoy John Kerry commented, “There will be no rolling back on the clean energy transition” in Sapporo, Japan, during a meeting with G-7 representatives. While all other countries strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Alaska project could increase greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels by 30%. [1]
The approval of Alaska Gasline Development Corp’s (AGDC) exports of LNG will be destined for countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement (they have free trade agreements in force with only 20 countries). Thus, LNG exports are mainly destined for countries in Asia, reaching up to 20 million metric tons of fracked gas annually in 2030. [2] Contrary to popular arguments, the U.S. Department of Energy has recently found “that exporting natural gas from the North Slope of Alaska would not increase greenhouse gas emissions at all [3].”
Last year, the U.S. became the world’s major LNG exporter, averaging 6.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d) per day on an annual basis [4]. The Arctic region is central to U.S. energy independence and national security. Therefore, the Willow Project, which is expected to produce 576 million barrels of oil over 30 years,” [5] and the planned LNG gas.
2 Ella Nilsen. “The Willow Project has been approved. Here’s what to know about the controversial oil-drilling venture” CNN (March 14, 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023.
3 U.S. Department of Energy “ALASKA LNG PROJECT - Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement” National Energy Technology Laboratory Report (January 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023.
4 U.S. Energy Information Administration “Asia became the main export destination for growing U.S. LNG exports in 2020” (March 15, 2021) https://www. eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47136
5 The Bureau of Land Management estimates that Willow could produce 576 million barrels of oil over 30 years.; Timothy Puko. “What is Willow? How an Alaska oil project could affect the environment.” pipeline is expected to set the U.S. in direct competition with Russia in the energy sector. Therefore, the Alaska energy outlook would set the United States in competition with Russia to ship natural gas from the Arctic to Asia.
Speaking about the elephant in the room, if the United States were to export LNG gas to Asia, particularly to China, the growing dependence between these two countries is bewildering the scope of strategic competition. Chinese interest in the Arctic region will magnify, and at the same time, China’s dependency on American LNG imports will grow, fostering a dynamic of enhanced interdependence.
Between economic growth, competition, and environmental doom.
The U.S. faces a challenging situation. During the presidential campaign in 2020, Biden vowed to end new oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters, but today, the panorama looks different. Data shows “the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.” [6] Therefore, Alaska’s petroleumrich North Slope contradicts President Joe Biden’s pledges to reduce carbon emissions and move to clean energy.
After conducting an environmental review, the federal government said the Alaska LNG project would provide economic and international security benefits. Despite the promising 1.5 degrees Celsius-aligned policies within the International Energy Agency (IEA) report published in 2021, no reverse action is expected to take place soon against the project.
Against this backdrop, climate change acts as a conflict and risk multiplier in the region. On the one hand, the environmental incentives have driven the U.S. to consider alternative natural gas and oil sources. On the other hand, increasing drilling risks in unstable melting quadrants face environmental opposition to the risks and system impacts on the biosphere. The environmental risks and strategies target the U.S. into conflict on both sides: from environmental activists to the right and from competitors in the Arctic, including China and Russia to the left.
The European Union's turn to the Arctic
The EU’s engagement in the Arctic has both an environmental and geopolitical impetus as well. The EU’s involvement in the Arctic raises the banner of the EU Green Deal without disregarding security and resource competition. Three EU member states (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden) are member states of the Arctic Council.
6 Taylor McKinnon. “New Data: Biden’s First Year Drilling Permitting Stomps Trump’s By 34%” Centre for Biological Diversity (January 21, 2022).
Against this backdrop, a key example is Italy’s Arctic presence linked to strong participation in Russia’s energy projects. Many Italian companies, such as “ENI, Saipem, and Nuovo Pignone, participate in developing the Arctic-LNG 2 and Yamal LNG projects to produce liquefied gas in northern Siberia.” [7]
Russia plans to open production in December of 2023, one of the three LNG-2 projects in its Artic lines. The new facility will become the world’s largest LNG facility constructed by NOVATEK, Russia’s largest natural gas producer. In light of the war in Ukraine and the EU sanctions, the project had to undergo fundamental technology and design changes. Confidently overcoming EU sanctions, NOVATEK project director Timofey Sazonov confirms plans to open production in December of 2023[8].
Against this backdrop, pressure from Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine increased the U.S. LNG exports to Europe after Moscow cut gas pipeline shipments to the continent 9. However, unlike pipeline gas, Russian LNG is not subjected to EU sanctions, leading to increased LNG imports from 16 bcm to 22 bcm10 to the continent.
7 Arianna Muro Pes, “Far but not so far: Italy’s Role and Interests in the Arctic” The Arctic Institute (November 10, 2022).
8 Malte Humpert.“Novatek Confident It will Complete Arctic LNG 2 on Schedule Despite Western Sanctions” (December 16, 2022) Accessed April 15, 2023.
9 Timothy Gardner. “Biden Admin Approves Exports from Alaska LNG Project” Reuters (April 14, 2023) Accessed April 17, 2023.
10 Abnett Kate.“EU countries seek legal option to stop Russian LNG imports” Reuters (March 28, 2023) source: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/17/climate-change-arctic-00071169
MiIitarisation of the Arctic
Beyond commercial interests, the territorial expansion into the Arctic is materializing with the advancement of defense and security concerns that were long dormant since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In response to Russia’s aggression, the seven other Arctic states provisionally suspended their participation in the Arctic Council, isolating Russia. Against this backdrop, it is yet to be seen how China will take advantage of this situation.
Russian dominance of the Arctic includes civilian and military infrastructure across the Arctic, threatening the economic development and national security of the seven other nations that form the Arctic Council. In the same manner, NATO’s increasing presence in the Arctic is viewed by Russia as a source of threat encroaching on its economic interests, particularly concerning oil and gas.
Finland joining NATO as the 31st member signifies the possible return of great power competition in the Arctic[11]. However, four Arctic experts say it “would take the West at least ten years to catch up with Russia’s military in the region.”[12] NATO’s 2022 Cold Response exercise was the largest military drill in the Arctic since the Cold War. The Cold Response is a longstanding and noncombative practice typically held every four years, recently coordinated by Norway. The northern country has a growing interest in the region after a recent event in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic archipelago).
11 Saxena Abhishek. “The Return of Great Power Competition to the Arctic” (October 22, 2020).
12 Reuter “Arctic Security” https://www.reuters.com/ graphics/ARCTIC-SECURITY/zgvobmblrpd/
Official source: https://alaska-lng.com/ recent event in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic archipelago).
Norway’s standing tracking of Russia’s newly upgraded nuclear submarine fleet in the region allegedly resulted in severing an undersea telecommunications cable connecting the Arctic archipelago to mainland Norway and the rest of Europe. Although the investigation still continues, it is yet to be determined which entity committed the action. To set this in perspective, without a backup plan, “the damage would have severed internet to the world’s largest satellite relay, one that connects the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA and other government agencies from around the world to real-time space surveillance.”[13] Therefore, beyond environmental concerns, the Northern region is to evolve into a strategic front that will play out in both energy and conventional security.
Finally, China’s growing influence has also extended to the Arctic region investing “over $90 billion above the Arctic Circle in infrastructure, assets, or other projects. Investments are largely in the energy and minerals sectors.”14 Xi Jinping’s administration officially acknowledged the strategic importance of the Arctic region, seeing Russia as a gateway to the Arctic. From this perspective, the Chinese course of action can take a central stage now that Russia is isolated from the Arctic Council and the Chinese-Finnish cooperation intensifies in advancing the Polar Silk Road.
13 Kenneth Rosen, “A Battle for the Arctic Is Underway. And the U.S. Is Already Behind.” Politico (December 17, 2022).
14 Foreign Affairs Committee, “China Regional Snapshot: Arctic” October 25, 2022. Accessed April 15, 2023.
References
Abnett Kate.“EU countries seek legal option to stop Russian LNG imports” Reuters (March 28, 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www. reuters.com/business/energy/eu-countries-seeklegal-option-stop-russian-lngimports-2023-03-28/
“Alaska LNG Project” https://alaska-lng.com/ Accessed April 15, 2023.
Ciolan Ionela. “The EU’s geopolitical awakening in the Arctic” European Policy Centre (April 11, 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023. Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www.epc.eu/en/publications/
The-EUs-geopolitical-awakening-in-theArctic~47c318
Foreign Affairs Committee, “China Regional Snapshot: Arctic” October 25, 2022. Accessed April 15, 2023. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/ china-regional-snapshot-arctic/#:~:text=The%20 PRC%20has%20invested%20over,the%20 energy%20and%20minerals%20sectors
Gardner Timothy. “Biden Admin Approves Exports from Alaska LNG Project” Reuters (April 14, 2023) Accessed April 17, 2023. https://gcaptain. com/biden-admin-approves-exports-alaska-lngproject/
Humpert Malte.“Novatek Confident It will Complete Arctic LNG 2 on Schedule Despite Western Sanctions” (December 16, 2022) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www.highnorthnews.com/ en/novatek-confident-it-will-complete-arctic-lng2-schedule-despite-western-sanctions
Nilsen Ella. “The Willow Project has been approved. Here’s what to know about the controversial oil-drilling venture” CNN (March 14, 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www. cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/willow-project-oilalaska-explained-climate/index.html
McKinnon Taylor. “New Data: Biden’s First Year Drilling Permitting Stomps Trump’s By 34%” importance for strategic competition. The Arctic has become the new chessboard where Great Powers continue to acquire new assets and mobilize their resources to secure strategic ground in the Arctic.
Centre for Biological Diversity (January 21, 2022) https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/pressreleases/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-yeardrilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/
Muro Pes Arianna, “Far but not so far: Italy’s Role and Interests in the Arctic” The Arctic Institute (November 10, 2022). https://www. thearcticinstitute.org/italy-role-interests-arctic/
Puko Timothy. “What is Willow? How an Alaska oil project could affect the environment.”
Washington Post (April 3, 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/ climate-environment/2023/03/17/willow-projectalaska-oil-drilling-explained/ Reuter “Arctic Security” https://www.reuters. com/graphics/ARCTIC-SECURITY/zgvobmblrpd/
Rosen Kenneth, “A Battle for the Arctic Is Underway. And the U.S. Is Already Behind.”
Politico (December 17, 2022) https://www.politico. com/news/magazine/2022/12/17/climate-changearctic-00071169
U.S. Department of Energy “ALASKA LNG PROJECT - Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement” National Energy Technology Laboratory Report (January 2023) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/ files/2023-01/final-seis-0512-s1-alaska-lngvolume-2-2023-01.pdf
U.S. Energy Information Administration “Asia became the main export destination for growing U.S. LNG exports in 2020” (March 15, 2021) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail. php?id=47136
Saxena Abhishek. “The Return of Great Power Competition to the Arctic” (October 22, 2020) Accessed April 15, 2023. https://www. thearcticinstitute.org/return-great-powercompetition-arctic/
