Specter of Famine on the Horizon

The ruthless and cruel war that Russia is waging in Ukraine today is already having many tragic consequences. Soon to be added to that list, perhaps, is famine, which will fall on the inhabitants of the world’s poorest countries that depend on grain imports from Ukraine.

Before Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, grain from both countries filled the bulk of the needs of many markets in the Middle East and Africa. Today, Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain exports.

In peacetime, Ukraine exported 90 percent of its harvest through its Black Sea ports. Today those ports are occupied or blockaded by the Russians, and access to Odessa has been mined. Swedish economist Anders Åslund calculates that if the Ukrainian grain supply fails, up to 47 million people will suffer starvation this year.

BOTH EU AND US PROPOSALS MAKE A GOOD RESPONSE, BUT IT IS NOT ENOUGH

Putin has reached for another cruel tool that Joseph Stalin used in politics before him. In 1932-1933, the then Soviet dictator deliberately caused a famine to break the resistance of the Ukrainian countryside to communist management methods, including collectivization. Between 3 and 10 million Ukrainians died of starvation at the time. Today, Putin may be leading to an even greater, international disaster.

Admittedly, the Russian leader recently stated that he has no objection to Ukrainian grain being exported by sea. However, no one believes Putin anymore, so new speculations arise. Ukraine has reason to believe that this is a stratagem aimed at attacking Odessa after the waters surrounding that port are demined.

The European Union reacted promptly to the crisis surrounding the possibility of Ukrainian grain exports, proposing the creation of “solidarity corridors.” Of course, these would pass through EU and not Belarusian territory. The creation of such corridors would have to mean a sharp increase in the availability of rolling stock, ships and trucks, providing mobile grain loading equipment as well as streamlining customs and phytosanitary procedures. In order to enable quick contacts between the suppliers of agricultural goods and their distributors from the EU, the European Commission has established an intermediation platform enabling companies to register their participation in the initiative.

However, there is serious concern that this plan will only partially fulfil the hopes pinned on it. The problem lies in limited infrastructure capacity. Added to this are old, wellknown weaknesses such as the different track gauges in Ukraine and the EU as well as other operational and logistical problems. So what if we manage to abolish phytosanitary inspections at the border for goods in transit, when we cannot drastically improve the physical capacity of the railroad infrastructure in this part of Europe? A train’s passage will still account for less than 10 percent of the time needed for transport, the rest being wasted on obtaining permits for transit, reloading, changes of engines and cars. At this rate, it would take a year to export the grain. It is worth realizing that exporting grain from Ukraine would take either 300 large ships, 6,000 barges or 10,000 giant trains, each 600 meters long.

US President Joe Biden also attaches great importance to this problem. His proposal to build temporary silos on the Polish side of the border with Ukraine can be considered brilliant. There is, however, a significant “but”: such silos must take months to build and that, perhaps, is all the time we need to avoid famine.

Both EU and US proposals make a good response, but it is not enough. It is necessary to organize - preferably under the auspices of the UN - a naval convoy of international forces. More and more countries are declaring their participation in such an operation. Italy is ready to demine the waters. Canada has announced it would send ships. China and India, which have not condemned Russia’s aggression and aspire to the role of leaders of the developing countries, should join in. Turkey, the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, should play a key role. It previously closed the straits to warships. Now it should open them to provide a safe humanitarian corridor for grain. According to Ian Anthony of the Swedish institute SIPRI, the specter of civil unrest and famine gives Turkey the green light to open the straits to an international convoy. Today, with all the diplomatic efforts, it is hard to even imagine that the export of Ukrainian grain could fail and the nightmare of an artificially induced famine might return. Just like in the 1930s - used as a tool of Russia’s imperial policy, this time on an international scale.

Paweł Wojciechowski

Prof. Paweł Wojciechowski is the European Coordinator of the Rhine-Alpine Corridor, one of the nine core network corridors in the EU.