A Cooler China-Iran Relationship

By Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh

agreements. The implementation of the 25year agreement, which was touted as being worth $400 billion and involved Iranian oil, Iranian banking, telecommunications, ports and other economic projects, has been left in limbo.

Why have bilateral economic deals not been implemented?

Questions Are Continuing

to swirl about the future of the bilateral relationship in light of recent moves by China’s president that Iran considers unfriendly to its interests.

Amid widespread protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic is losing one of its major allies, China. In recent years, Iran turned toward China. The two countries signed a 25-year cooperation agreement on March 27, 2021, and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September 2022. Although this might appear to signal bilateral rapprochement, the Iranian government has not gained tangible economic benefits from the

Two issues have made Iran an unattractive investment partner: its presence (together with North Korea) on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) blacklist and the inability of its negotiators to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration.

Iranian officials regard China as the only JCPOA member that can give Iran an economic lifeline in the face of U.S. sanctions, but China seems to be moving away from Iran and toward Iran’s nemesis, Saudi Arabia.

THE SINO-GULF RELATIONSHIP IS ENTERING A NEW ERA

For many years, Iran has insisted that it will never negotiate ownership of its islands. But in a joint statement issued by China’s leader and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council rulers during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December 2022, both sides affirmed “support for all peaceful efforts, including the initiative and endeavors of the United Arab Emirates to reach a peaceful solution to the issue of the three islands: Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, through bilateral negotiations in accordance with the rules of international law, and to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy.”

And China took one more step: It mentioned Iran in the context of “respect for the principles of good neighborliness and noninterference in the internal affairs of states.”

This was the first time that China expressed an opinion on the three islands. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian wrote in Chinese on his Twitter account that “the three islands of Abu Musa, the Lesser Tunb and the Greater Tunb are inseparable parts of Iran and belong to the motherland forever.” President Raisi expressed irritation with the joint GCC-China statement: “Iran wants China to review its position in this regard.”

Some analysts believe that the government soft-pedaled its dissatisfaction with Beijing; Iran’s foreign ministry did not use the word “summoning” to describe the appearance of China’s ambassador in Iran’s foreign ministry. (The Iran news agency described it as a “visit.”)

Beijing has tried to mollify the Islamic Republic after its joint statement with the Gulf

Cooperation Council. Xi sent Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua to Iran. However, some believe that the choice of envoy—an official who had been recently removed from the top echelons of power—could only be seen as an insult to Iran. The Chinese vice premier maintained that Beijing always respects Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, he did not retreat from China’s stance in the joint statement with Arab countries about negotiations for ownership of the three islands and Iran’s regional activities.

China’s new stance toward Iran triggered domestic reactions. Iran’s Arman Daily newspaper ran a front-page article supporting Taiwanese independence, and other newspapers in Iran published articles against China. Some Iranians took to social media to express their dissatisfaction. Several publications wrote that since the Chinese government has refused to apologize, Tehran could retaliate by supporting Taiwan’s independence.

It seems that the widespread protests around the country, driven by Mahsa

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