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The importance of quality research and data Paul Conway, Chief Economist January 2024
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Disclaimer • This presentation does not represent the views of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
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Figures
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GDP has been significantly revised Real expenditure GDP before and after revisions 09/10 $mn
72000 70000
09/10 $mn
Most recent GDP data GDP data before revisions revisions (RHS)
200 0
68000
-200
66000 -400 64000 -600
62000
-800
60000 58000
2017
2018
2019
2020 UNCLASSIFIED
Source: Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.
2021
2022
2023
-1000
6
Weaker government expenditure drives the revisions Contributions to revisions in expenditure GDP
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Source: Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.
7
Core inflation measures have fallen Measures of annual core inflation
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Source: Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.
8
Inflation is coming down, but remains high New Zealand inflation rate Annual % Headline CPI inflation Non-tradables inflation Tradables inflation
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
2005
2008
2011
2014 UNCLASSIFIED
Source: Stats NZ.
2017
2020
2023
Global energy prices have increased, pushing up New Zealand fuel costs Index
1700
1500
Dubai oil prices and New Zealand petrol prices
US$/barrel
130
CPI Petrol Gaspy fuel price index Dubai crude oil price (RHS)
100
1300 70 1100 40
900
700
2018
2019
2020 UNCLASSIFIED
Source: Stats NZ, Gaspy, Bloomberg data.
2021
2022
2023
10
9
10
New Zealand import costs rapidly increased Nominal New Zealand ex-oil import prices and projection (TWI terms) Index
90 85
Projection
Ex-oil import prices (TWI terms) November 2023 MPS
80 75 70 65 60 55 50
1991
1996
2001
2006 UNCLASSIFIED
Source: Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.
2011
2016
2021
2026
11
Inflation is high across developed economies Headline CPI inflation
Annual %
12
New Zealand OECD Average
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2
2005
2008
2011
2014 UNCLASSIFIED
Source: Stats NZ, OECD.
2017
2020
2023
12
The pandemic led to a sharp rise in public debt General Government debt (% of GDP)
Note: The latest reported OECD data is for 2021. Source: OECD.
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Our research agenda will help us deliver on our Remit. Our research agenda
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The need for quality data is vital for delivery of quality outcomes New Zealand GDP growth revisions
Note: Revisions are calculated as 'first release – subsequent release'. *These measures exclude the COVID lockdown periods of 2020Q2, 2020Q3, 2021Q3, 2021Q4. Source: Stats NZ.
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