David Robinson by Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation

Revitalizing the Georgian Bay Fisheries: Complicated, Complex, Contested, and Confused

David Robinson Ivan Filion Kirsten Robinson

Ivan Filion is a professional engineer with 30 years teaching, managing and consulAng experience. He has been Academic Dean, vice-‐president of academics and acAng President at Cambrian College in Sudbury. He iniAated the award winning SkyTech partnership, the E-‐dome at Cambrian College. He is co-‐ chair and a driving force in Ontario's Elk RestoraAon Advisory CommiMee, one of the most successful large mammal restoraAon project in North America, and the inventor of a innovaAve and safe nuisance bear trap that is now adopted worldwide, He was co-‐chair of the northern Smart Growth Panel and is currently a consultant on educaAon and economic development. Dr. David Robinson is an economist and Director of the Ins$tute for Northern Ontario Research and Development at LaurenAan University. He is well known in Northern Ontario for columns on economic development and commentaries in the broadcast media. PracAcal contribuAons to regional development include idenAfying the Sudbury Mining Supply and Services Cluster and giving it a key place in the regional development strategy, and promoAng the Center of Excellence in Mining InnovaAon at LaurenAan in its early stages. He was the ﬁrst person to propose an architecture school for Northern Ontario. The school is expected to start in 2011. He is co-‐author of The Topology of the 2x2 Games: a new periodic table, and has wriMen a series of academic arAcles on Northern economic development. Kirsten Robinson is a highly regarded social and economic development strategist in Sudbury, having played a key role in launching the Northern Ontario School of Architecture and other projects. She is currently an MA student in Engineering, has been involved with WICI for the last year, and holds a fellowship with SIG.

Context The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and two Ontario Stewardship Councils are considering a collaboraAve restoraAon project, potenAally stretching the length of Georgian Bay into Lake Huron s North Channel. This is a mulA-‐scale, systems-‐level problem of human-‐ecosystem interacAon. This workshop can shape that project.

WICI s QuesAons •  What kinds of social and/or technical innovaAons are required to restore, redesign, or maintain the major ecological systems that consAtute humanity s fundamental life-‐support system? •  How do individuals and communiAes innovate within their complex meaning systems to change their perceived self-‐idenAAes, and how does this innovaAon promote cooperaAon or conﬂict between groups?

- Established in 2003. - Focus is promoting innovation for Northern Communities - Clients range from provincial ministries, municipal governments, post-secondary institutions, Anishinabek communities as well as private sector primary and secondary industries. - Products include strategic planning, technology development, prototyping, educational reform and funds acquisition.

More than 700 streams and 90 lakes greater than 200 hectares

•  Georgian Bay belongs to a diﬀerent geological formaAon than Lake Huron, lying beneath the formaAon of the Niagara Escarpment

Built Boundary for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

Approximately 20 different Anishinabek Communities

Reasons for the Declining Fish PopulaAon •  Over fishing, •  The influx of sea lamprey, and •  (more recently) the proliferaAon of doublecrested cormorant have all been. •  Water quality Today only a handful of part-‐Ame commercial fishers remain.

Trend of Fishing Effort on Lake Huron 6 000 000

No. of days annually

5 000 000

Total

Res.

4 000 000 Consistent decline in fishing effort 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000

Non-Res.

0 1990

1995

2000 Year

Represents annual losses of $100,000,000

2005 Source: DFO

Project: IniAate Two Inter-‐Dependent Re-‐ vitalizaAon Plans 1) the re-‐vitalizaAon of the coastal and inland sports ﬁsheries along the North Channel and Eastern Georgian Bay 2) the creaAon of contemporary green adventure angling and tourism products and businesses that will rely on a re-‐vitalized and sustained recreaAonal ﬁsheries.

Currently Involved •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •

A number of Coastal First NaCons CommuniCes Stewardship Councils Ministry of Natural Resources Georgian Bay Forever (formerly the GBA FoundaAon) The Georgian Bay LiIoral Biosphere Reserve (2004) member Manitoulin Streams The United States NOTO, OFAH The Biosphere Sustainability Project?

Areas of Complexity That I Think Need to be Addressed: •  Sparrow Case ruling and its implicaAon on natural resources management •  Uncertain improvement path of FN's technical capacity •  Riparian and coastal land tenure •  Great Lakes invasive species •  Impact of climate change •  EducaAonal level of the coastal communiAes •  Cultural and ecological shids for coastal communiAes

Two Problem-‐Solving Paradigms

Deﬁning ontology

ConvenConal

Complex AdapCve

MechanisAc

Complex

Social organizaCon

Centralized/hierarchical

Decentralized/distributed

Competence/ Knowledge Scale of tesCng

High, technocraAc, explicit

Mixed, experienAal, tacit

Small number of large tests with high consequence of failure Policy communiAes, management elites Top

Abundant small scale, safe-‐ fail experimentaAon

Sources of legiCmacy/ power Social locaCon Goal

OpAmizaAon of expected uAlity (according to explicit, well-‐deﬁned preferences) Thomas Homer-‐Dixon, 2007

Civil society, democraAc acAon, markets BoMom and middle SaAsﬁcing of mulAple, oden conﬂicAng, and someAmes incommensurable values

The Elk Example •  MNR Guiding Principles: The Elk management plan will respect Aboriginal peoples treaty and consAtuAonal rights. •  Example: Michigan collapse

•  We have a recognizably complex problem operaAng on mulAple levels with perverse insAtuAonal structures •  We have the challenge of designing a governance model that increases the number and happiness of the ﬁsh populaAon as well as the wealth producAon of the social system

Overlapping and Nested Human Interests varying territories, jurisdicAonal boundaries, authoriAes

forestry Industry Group First naAons Municipal governments

Various groups MNR First NaAons

coMagers ﬁshery

tourism

conservaAon

Ministry

Overlapping and Interconnected CPRs •  CPR = Common Pool Resource •  Characterized by –  Diﬃcult exclusion –  High subtractability Ostrom, Gardiner, Walker

•  Involving –  AppropriaAon First NaAons? –  Provision Stewardship Council?

CPRs •  Trees •  Non-‐Amber forest products •  RecreaAonal facility –  Wasaga beach, sport ﬁshery, trails, sailing

•  Tourism industry •  Fish •  Elk

CPR Dilemma? •  Two features characterize a dilemma: –  SubopAmal outcomes –  InsAtuAonally feasible alternaAves

Control and InformaAon Mismatch

ExisAng procedures and structures are deeply resistant to change •  Northern Growth plan conducted consultaAons with selected individuals, then came back with a very bland plan. •  It did not put the informaAon back into the system. This is profoundly anA-‐democraAc – but is it also ineﬃcient. •  It is stabilizing (rigidifying), it delays any changes that the province had not already commiMed to.

Intertemporal Problem •  OGW: for most CPR problems the most natural representaAon is a Cme-‐dependent repeated game •  Time introduces complicaAons: forecasAng, memory, discounAng, varying Ame frames, contracAng, trust, reputaAon, norms, enforcement, regime change, risk premia, ..