The End of Economic Growth

Page 1

Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation February 2012


What is Global Governance?  No world government = no global governance  But, if governance = provision of public order

 Then, other sources of governance:  international organizations, agencies, regimes, alliances,

forums, networks, public-private partnerships, etc ...


What is Global Governance?  All forms of Global Governance are:  Partial and dissimilar  Surrogates for the absent world government  Attempts to fill the global governance deficit  Global Governance = A patchwork quilt of governance

structures and systems


Two Functions of Global Governance 1.

Provision of Public Order


Two Functions of Global Governance 1.

Provision of Public Order


Two Functions of Global Governance 1.

Provision of Public Order

2.

Steering Function


Two Functions of Global Governance 1.

Provision of Public Order

2.

Steering Function


Where are we going?  Our only clues:  The universalized political commitment to economic

growth  More is better

 Destination: The Land of Plenty


Where are we going?  No roadmap

 No realistic destination  No one at the wheel

 Missing steering function = global governance deficit  Finding the answer in the noumenal domain


What is a Complex Adaptive System?  Dominant worldview: Newtonian mechanics

 But Newton’s laws tell us nothing about:  Forests  The world economy  Stock markets  The internet  Earth’s climate


Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems  Huge number of interactive parts  Constant energy input  Evolution

 Threshold effects  Emergence


What is emergence?  The whole is more than the sum of its parts  Example: Human consciousness  Supervenience and evolution


Emergence and Global Governance  Human society on Earth is a Complex Adaptive System  Complex Adaptive Systems can spawn emergent

phenomena  Do we have a collective consciousness, a ‘shared mind’?


Does a shared consciousness exist?  A clue: Waves of shared emotion  Evidence from sociology

 Culture supervenes on individual behaviour


Stages of Evolution 1.

Early childhood: Local awareness

2. Adolescence: excitement, gullibility, vulnerability

3. Adulthood: empathic care and responsibility


Where we are now: Adolescence  The panacea of economic growth  The illogic of perpetual growth

 Simple, exciting ideas dominate our evolution, but we

lack a reflexive capability


Two Questions 1.

How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space?

2. Where do we want to go?

Answering these questions is the first step toward a new form of global governance


How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space? 1. Bottom-up:  Open-architecture politics and social media

(participatory democracy)  Examples: Occupy Movement, Arab Spring, Russian uprising against Putin, #tellviceverything campaign  Mobilize constituencies (youth, boomers)


How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space? 2. Top-down  

  

A New Reformation A frontal attack on the “church of everlasting growth” Shift from defence to offence Shift the burden of proof Stake a dogmatic claim to our own future


Where are we going?  An ecologically safe and just human society  Transition from adolescence to maturity

 Transition from bigger to better  A stable platform


Four Transitions ď‚— Cognitive: From Newton to CAS


Four Transitions ď‚— Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

ď‚— Political: From muddling through to open-

architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience


Four Transitions  Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

 Political: From muddling through to open-

architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience  Normative: From utilitarianism and moral relativism

to a deeper understanding of the ‘meaning of life’


Four Transitions  Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

 Political: From muddling through to open-

architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience  Normative: From utilitarianism and moral relativism

to a deeper understanding of the ‘meaning of life’  Economic: From the growth model to the SSE model


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