Commodity report 08 jan 2017 by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Market Wrap-Up MCX Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Aluminum

31-Jan-18

144.95

145.05

145.45

139

139.20

-3.97%

-38.55%

51.38%

Copper

28-Feb-18

466.00

467.85

452.1

452.50

-2.90%

-18.95%

-15.90%

Crude Oil

19-Jan-18

3850.00

3858

3950

3782

3887.00

0.96%

14.92%

20.87%

Gold

5-Feb-18

29156.00

29160

29284

29061

29217.00

0.21%

8.49%

-4.23%

Lead

31-Jan-18

160.05

160.35

164.55

159.3

161.90

1.16%

-21.58%

137.98%

Natural Gas

25-Jan-18

189.70

191.4

196.6

174.8

177.10

-6.64%

134.86%

12.41%

Nickel

31-Jan-18

783.40

814

815.5

784.1

794.30

1.39%

-26.55%

96.55%

Silver

5-Mar-18

39237.00

39089

39372

38900

39253.00

0.04%

-1.16%

0.50%

Zinc

31-Jan-18

211.50

212.4

215.45

211.1

213.80

1.09%

3.95%

157.42%

Commodity

Change in Change in OI Change in VolPrice (in %) (in %) ume (in %)

NCDEX Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

Change in OI (in %)

Change in Volume (in %)

Castor Seed

19-Jan-18

4357

4360

4369

4251

4276

-1.86%

-0.93%

-1.33%

Chana

19-Jan-18

4015

4121

3909

3971

-1.10%

-10.43%

-62.76%

Dhaniya

19-Jan-18

5494

5524

5620

5222

5270

-4.08%

-11.88%

-11.28%

Cottonseed Oil Cake

19-Jan-18

1771

1768

1818

1750

1776

0.28%

-3.70%

-46.91%

Guargum5

19-Jan-18

8939

8941

9450

8855

9382

4.96%

5.84%

-23.18%

Guarseed10

19-Jan-18

4078

4084.5

4284

4043

4254

4.32%

3.66%

-41.82%

Jeera

19-Jan-18

21650

21695

21760

20920

-3.37%

-8.67%

39.34%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1031

1029.5

975

993

-3.69%

-22.02%

-33.65%

RMseed

19-Jan-18

3939

3943

3976

3921

3927

-0.30%

-0.71%

-13.76%

Ref Soya Oil

19-Jan-18

721.75

724.5

742.65

723

740.45

2.59%

-13.41%

99.28%

Soyabean

19-Jan-18

3065

3070

3167

3047

3166

3.30%

4.98%

-2.42%

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7842

7876

7450

7550

-3.72%

-0.09%

-14.36%

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1970

1675

1710

1578.1

1671.8

-15.14%

-7.23%

-41.77%

Commodity

Currency Market Wrap-up Currency Pair

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

USDINR

29-Jan-18

64.0575

64.0425

64.0600

63.4550

63.5175

-0.84%

GBPINR

29-Jan-18

86.5475

86.6100

86.7600

85.9700

86.0700

-0.55%

EURINR

29-Jan-18

76.8325

75.9825

76.9000

75.9625

76.8325

0.00%

JPYINR

29-Jan-18

56.9925

56.9275

57.4750

56.1200

56.1650

-1.45% Continued…….

08/01/2018

Market Wrap-Up International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

LME

2275.5

2279.25

2289.5

2200.75

2202.5

-3.21%

Copper

COMEX

3.28

3.295

3.305

3.224

3.232

-1.46%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

60.12

60.26

62.2

60.12

61.56

2.40%

Gold

COMEX

1305.1

1305.8

1327.2

1304.6

1320.2

1.16%

Lead

LME

2496

2507.5

2593.25

2489

2553.25

2.29%

NYMEX

2.956

3.057

3.096

2.747

2.787

-5.72%

Nickel

LME

12652.5

12557.5

12835

12352.5

12547.5

-0.83%

Silver

COMEX

16.985

17.025

17.32

16.985

17.26

1.62%

Zinc

LME

3318.25

3306.25

3379.5

3293.5

3358.28

1.21%

Commodity Aluminum

Natural Gas

08/01/2018

Inventory Updates LME Inventory Update Commodity

Closing (As on 05th Jan 18) in Tonnes

Closing (As on 29th Dec 17) in Tonnes

% Change

Copper

200150

201650

-0.74%

Nickel

365934

373410

-2.00%

Lead

142075

141875

0.14%

Zinc

180575

188225

-4.06%

Aluminium

1101325

1106025

-0.42%

Continued…….

08/01/2018

Inventory Updates

08/01/2018

Market Next Week Upcoming Economic Events Calender Time

Curreny

Event

Forecast

0.20%

0.50%

Monday, January 8, 2018 14:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

Tuesday, January 9, 2018 5:31

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Dec)

0.60%

20:30

USD

JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)

5.996M

-4.992M

Wednesday, January 10, 2018 3:00

USD

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

7:00

CNY

CPI (YoY) (Dec)

1.90%

1.70%

7:00

CNY

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.40%

0.00%

7:00

CNY

PPI (YoY) (Dec)

4.80%

5.80%

15:00

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

0.30%

0.70%

15:00

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)

0.30%

0.10%

15:00

GBP

Trade Balance (Nov)

-10.70B

-10.78B

19:00

USD

Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

0.40%

0.50%

19:00

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

0.50%

0.70%

21:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-7.419M

Thursday, January 11, 2018 19:00

USD

Core PPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.20%

0.30%

19:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

248K

250K

19:00

USD

PPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.20%

0.40%

-134.0B

-139.0B

Friday, January 12, 2018 0:30

USD

Federal Budget Balance (Dec)

19:00

USD

Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)

1.70%

19:00

USD

Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.20%

0.10%

19:00

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

0.40%

1.00%

19:00

USD

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.20%

0.40%

19:00

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

0.50%

0.80%

20:29

CNY

Exports (YoY) (Dec)

9.10%

12.30%

20:29

CNY

Imports (YoY) (Dec)

13.00%

17.70%

20:29

CNY

Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)

37.00B

40.21B

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

29-Jan-18

64.9000

64.3000

63.9500

63.7000

63.3500

63.1000

62.5000

GBPINR

29-Jan-18

87.8500

87.0500

86.5500

86.2500

85.7500

85.4500

84.6500

EURINR

29-Jan-18

78.4500

77.5000

77.1500

76.5500

76.2000

75.6000

74.7000

JPYINR

29-Jan-18

59.3000

57.9500

57.1000

56.6000

55.7500

55.2500

53.9000 Continued…….

08/01/2018

Market Next Week MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

28-Feb-18

154.10

147.65

143.40

141.20

136.95

134.75

128.30

Copper

28-Feb-18

489

473.25

462.9

457.5

447.15

441.75

426.00

Crude Oil

19-Jan-18

4209

4041

3964

3873

3796

3705.00

3537.00

Gold

5-Feb-18

29633

29410

29314

29187

29091

28964

28741

Lead

28-Feb-18

172.4

167.15

164.5

161.9

159.25

156.65

151.40

Natural Gas

25-Jan-18

226.45

204.65

190.9

182.85

169.1

161.05

139.25

Nickel

28-Feb-18

860.75

829.35

811.8

797.95

780.4

766.55

735.15

Silver

5-Mar-18

40119

39647

39450

39175

38978

38703

38231

Zinc

28-Feb-18

222.15

217.8

215.8

213.45

211.45

209.10

204.75

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

29-Dec-17

4535

4417

4346

4299

4228

4181

4063

Chana

28-Feb-18

4424

4212

4092

4000

3880

3788

3576

Dhaniya

18-Dec-17

6167

5769

5519

5371

5121

4973

4575

Cotton Seed Oilcake

5-Feb-18

1917

1849

1813

1781

1745

1713

1645

Guargum5

29-Dec-17

10419

9824

9603

9229

9008

8634

8039

Guarseed10

26-Dec-17

4676

4435

4344

4194

4103

3953

3712

Jeera

29-Dec-17

22880

22040

21480

21200

20640

20360

19520

Kapas

5-Mar-18

1108

1054

1023

999

969

945

890

RMseed

29-Dec-17

4051

3996

3962

3941

3907

3886

3831

Ref Soya Oil

26-Dec-17

775

755

748

735

728

716

696

Soyabean

29-Dec-17

3367

3247

3206

3127

3086

3007

2887

Turmeric

5-Mar-18

8477

8051

7801

7625

7375

7199

6773

Mentha Oil

29-Dec-17

1917

1785

1729

1653

1597

1521

1390

08/01/2018

MCX Fundamentals BULLION Gold dipped in choppy trading on Friday as traders cashed in gains from the metal's rally to 3-1/2-month highs this week and as the dollar rose even after weaker-thanexpected U.S. payrolls data for December. The metal remained on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, something it has not done since April although it posted an annual increase of 13 percent in 2017. The U.S. December non-farm payrolls report was weaker than expected. The dollar dipped briefly, then rose as investors reckoned the data would not deter U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates multiple times this year though at a gradual pace.

BASE METALS Zinc hit its highest in more than a decade on Friday as concerns over market tightness persisted, while copper hit a two-week low as Chinese investor interest was muted with the Lunar New Year holidays looming. Zinc stocks held in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 250 tonnes to their lowest since late 2008, data showed on Friday, down about a third from their October peak. The global zinc market deficit widened to 36,900 tonnes in October from a revised deficit of 35,900 tonnes in September, the latest industry data show.

ENERGY Oil prices fell on Friday, dropping from highs last seen in 2015, as soaring U.S. production undermined a 10 percent rally from December lows that was driven by tightening supply and political tensions in OPEC member Iran. Traders said political tensions in Iran, had pushed prices higher. Oil prices have received general support from production cuts led by OPEC and Russia, which started in January last year and are set to last through 2018, as well as from strong economic growth and financial markets MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited. NYMEX natural gas gained more than 1% to trade above $2.8/mmBtu after Fridayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sharp 3% decline. Supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high. 8

08/01/2018

NCDEX Fundamentals SPICES As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to 10,402 tn. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 38% to 3.8 lakh hectares as on 1Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.8 lakh hectares at that same time. Turmeric Apr contract fall for the fifth consecutive day on Friday mainly on short covering by the Market participants tracking weakness in physical market. The supplies have improved during last one month due to new season arrivals, government auctions and lower exports data.

OIL & OILSEEDS NCDEX Soybean closed 3.2% high last week supported by improving in physical demand. Moreover, the supplies have been diminishing slowly in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during December compared to last year. Mustard Jan futures closed lower due to profit booking tracking weak physical demand. Market is still expecting for some demand side fundamentals as downside looks limited. Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP due to reports good progress in sowing season and steady demand.

GUAR COMPLEX Guar complex futures traded higher last week. Good demand from stockiest and guar gum producers and reduced supply at major trading centers helped prices to trade on positive bias during the week. However, guar gum futures settled marginally down on profit booking and closed the day at Rs.8931/ quintal,Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arrivals of guar were reported at 30800 bags yesterday at major trading centers across Rajasthan.

OTHERS Chana Jan futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking by the market participants on reports on higher stocks and good sowing progress. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 12.7% on year at 103.8 lakh hectares as on last week. As per government data, India imported about 5.84 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr-Oct, up by 430% compared the last year imports. MCX Jan Cotton rose for the eight consecutive week tracking firm international prices, good physical demand and improved exports. CCI has procured around 5 lakh bales this season of which 4 lakh bales have been procured at MSP and the remaining 1 lakh bales as part of its commercial operations. 9

08/01/2018

Calls of the Week (MCX) SILVER Silver prices opened flat in the last week and thereafter consolidated for the whole week in the range of 39000-39350 levels. Prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance in the last week and closed above the same on weekly basis as appeared on the chart. Also market is sustaining above the level of 39000 indicating positive trend in coming sessions. Prices are expected to go high above the level of 39400On the lower side immediate support is placed around 3900 level.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

ENTRY PRICE

DETAILS

Buy

Above 39400

TARGET

39900

STOP LOSS

39100

NICKEL Last week, Nickel prices opened higher and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 782.60. Previously prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14) has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone placed around 830

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

ENTRY PRICE

DETAILS

Buy

Above 801

TARGET

825

STOP LOSS

780

08/01/2018

Calls of the Week (NCDEX) RMSEED NCDEX Mustard seed Apr future continued to trade in the range of 4070-4200 for the fourth consecutive trading week. Price made the low of 4096 during the week and the high of 4174 and settled at 4143/quintal. Price gained by 34 points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of long positions. Arrivals continued to be steady in the range of 155000 bags. Market is forming lower high on its daily chart indicating selling trend. We can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded in range.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

ENTRY PRICE

DETAILS

Sell

Below 4120

TARGET

4050

STOP LOSS

4180

SYOREFINED CBOT Soy oil trading March futures gained by 0.50 c/lb in last week and settled at 33.76. Traders are expecting major change in the USDA monthly report which also supported higher soy oil price. The trading range for the session is 33.50-34 c/lb. In the domestic market NCDEX Soy oil Feb contract gained by 15 points and settled at 742.35/10 kg. Price gained with higher volume and OI indicating long accumulation. The NCDEX Feb future is trading higher than the import parity by 15 points. This may cap the upside in the near term on domestic bourse.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

ENTRY PRICE

DETAILS

Buy

Above 746.50

TARGET

759

STOP LOSS

738

08/01/2018

Calls of the Week (FOREX) EURINR In the initial part of the last week, EURINR made a high of 76.9975 but was unable to make the major psychological resistance level of 77.0000 and closed at 76.6450 with the marginal loss of 0.24% on weekly basis. For this week, traders can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 76.3525 it can test the level of 75.9125 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 76.6525

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

DETAILS

Sell

ENTRY PRICE

Below 76.3525

TARGET

75.9125

STOP LOSS

76.6525

GBPINR Last week, GBPINR witnessed downside movement for the entire week and closed at 86.07000 with the overall loss of 0.55% on weekly basis. Technically it’s trading with negative RSI (below 50) and below 200 Days SMA and still looking week on the chart. For this week, traders can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 85.9700 it can test the level of 85.4725 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 86.3025

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

ACTION

DETAILS

Sell

ENTRY PRICE

Below 85.9700

TARGET

85.4725

STOP LOSS

86.3025

08/01/2018

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08/01/2018