Commodity report 09 oct 2014 by ways2capital

Page 1

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV-14

622

612

602

598

592

588

582

572

562

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3104

3052

3000

2971

2948

2912

2896

2844

2792

RMSEED

20-NOV-14

3730

3690

3660

3640

3610

3580

3540

3505

3479

JEERAUNJHA

20-NOV-14

11325

11135 10945

10823

10756 10633 10555 10385 10186

DHANIYA

20-NOV-14

13133

12920 12703

12574

12488 12362 12273 12058 11843

CASTORSEED

20-NOV-14

4919

4813

4707

4647

4601

4541

4495

4389

4283

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV-14

655

633

611

602

589

580

567

545

523

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3394

3288

3133

3027

2998

2909

2800

2704

2613

RMSEED

20-NOV-14

3945

3873

3803

3673

3593

3536

3480

3434

3386

JEERAUNJHA

20-NOV-14

11338

11111 10820

10690

10545 10420 10210 9999

9715

DHANIYA

20-NOV-14

13105

12742 12310

12085

111784 11575 11428 10744 10395

CASTORSEED

20-NOV-14

4763

4597

4298

4187

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4412

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4002

3895

3804

3710

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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-SEP-14 123

121

119

118

117

116

115

113

111

COPPER

29-AUG-14 427

421

414

409

401

396

391

386

381

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 5978

5900

5820

5730

5640

5560

5510

5470

5412

GOLD

03-OCT-14 28030

27575

27120

26830

2665

26375

26210

25755

25300

LEAD 28-AUG-14 132 . NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 260

130

128

127

126

125

123

120

118

258

253

249

246

244

238

235

231

NICKEL

1120

1080

1040

1010

980

945

910

892

28-AUG-14 1160

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14 124

121

118

116

114

111

108

105

103

COPPER

29-AUG-14 435

427

420

408

400

393

386

381

376

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6325

6124

5925

5861

5704

5620

5470

5220

5000

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29100

28800

27500

27100

26800

26300

25950

25430 25015

LEAD

28-AUG-14 136

134

132

129

127

125

123

121

118

NATURAL GAS

26-AUG-14 290

266

250

238

220

206

195

188

173

NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1220

1160

1090

1060

1040

1010

990

930

880

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

42100

40600

39900

39200

38700

38050

37300 35700

ZINC

28-AUG-14 151

148

146

4144

137

134

131

128

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MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS UK’s National HPI dropped by 0.2 % in Sept as against a obtain of 0.8 % in Aug. Current Account dropped by 23.1 billion dollars. Last GDP increased by 0.9 % in the one fourth finished July as in comparison to a obtain of 0.8 % in the before one fourth. Japan’s Tankan MFG. Index increased partially to 13­mark in Q3 of 2014 as against a increase of 12­level in Q2 of 2014. Tankan Non­Manufacturing index fallen to 13­level for the one fourth finishing in June’14 from 19­mark in past one fourth. 1. India’s RBI kept repo & opposite repo prices at 8 & 7 %. 2. US CB Cunsumer confidence dropped by 6.4 factors to 86­mark in Sep’14. 3. Euro unemployment Rate the same at 11.5 % in Aug. 4. UK’s National HPI dropped by 0.2 % in the last month.

The Indian Rupee decreased around 0.6 % in yesterday’s trading period. The currency decreased after rise in US economic growth in the previous week raised concerns of earlier than reports increase in attention levels. Further, dollar demand from oil and other importers, weak domestic market demand along with RBI keeping the repo and source repo prices the same at 8 % and 7 % respectively in its meeting on Wednesday which applied downside pressure on the currency. The RBI promises that attention levels will remain the same until they anticipate a target of 6 % rising prices by Jan’16.

Precious Metals On the MCX, silver price dropped by around 2.13 % and closed at Rs.38516/kg. Silver price in the worldwide marketplaces delved by 3 % in combination with decrease in gold and base metal price. Also, strength in the DX which is hanging at 4­year peaks drawn price further. Gold Price dropped by 0.6 % on Wednesday and closed at their minimum level of the season, leading to a rout in other metal, as weak european zone rising prices numbers supported the case for the European Central Bank to declare more stimulus at the conclusion of its meeting later in the week. Also, outlook for higher U.S. Int. Rates and a stronger dollar cut demand for gold and hedge against inflation. Moreover, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold­backed exchange­traded fund, dropped 2.39 loads to 769.86 loads on Wednesday ­ the smallest since Dec 2008 showed falling interest in the gold. Prices in the worldwide Web: www.ways2capital.com

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marketplaces moved a low of $/tonne on Wednesday. On the MCX, gold price obtained by around 0.8 % due to Rupee devaluation and closed at Rs.27129/10 gms.

Base metal In the Indian market, base metals followed the way of global trend in Metals. Base metals on the LME exchanged fell considered down by a strong dollar and concerns about slack requirement from China suppliers after a production evaluate dropped from an initial reading in the greatest user of the steel. Also, poor consumer confidence data from the US served as a negative factor. On the improvements front, China financial institution cut home loan rates and down payment levels for some real estate buyers for the first time since the 2008 global financial trouble, one of its greatest goes this year to boost an economic system confronted by a declining real estate industry. LME copper dropped by 1.2 % on Wednesday and dropped to the smallest since May after a evaluate of China production activity revealed the country's production industry growing at a more slowly speed than previously thought, fuelling problems about requirement from the world's top customer of the metals. In the Indian market, copper price dropped by 0.9 % and closed at Rs.416/kg in the last period.

Energy Nymex Crude oil price declined by 3.6 % on Wednesday as provides from the Company of the Oil Dispatching Nations hit their maximum stage in two years in Sept, thanks to higher output from Saudi Arabic and Libya. With supply of nearly 31 thousand drums, the output exceeded OPEC's demand prediction for its own raw of 29.2 thousand barrels. Also, U.S. oil manufacturing averaged 8.5 thousand barrels a day in July for the second straight month to the biggest stage since 1986 applied disadvantage stress on price. Further, the United states Oil Institution said stocks fell by 460,000 barrels last week did not support prices. On the MCX, Crude oil price drooped by around 3 % in line with worldwide styles and closed at Rs.5673/bbl.

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LME Inventory 01­10­2014 Metal

Change from previous day

Aluminium

-6400

Copper

-275

Lead

250

Nickel

2334

Tin

-215

Zinc

-675

NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Soyabean trading started higher on short covers, greater CBOT price in the past day and requirement for soy oil. However, price fixed from greater levels on collect stress of the new plants and resolved partially greater 0.07%. Inadequate soy food trade requirement also condensed prices. Routes have started in Maharashtra in small regions. According to Secretary of state for Farming soybean growing as on Twenty fifth Sept is revealed at 11.02 mn ha in comparison to 12.22 mn ha last season. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean the same at Rs. 2500­2560/qtl. The Secretary of state for Farming in its 1th Advance Reports, estimated 2014­15 soybean output at 11.82 mn tn as against 11.99 mn tn in 2012­13. Soy food exports in Aug ’14 have dropped 98.49% to 2,778 tn from 183,555 tn in Aug ’13 on poor requirement and reduced accessibility for smashing due to greater indian quotations for international customers. CBOT Soya bean exchanged on adverse observe on Wednesday and dropped to a 4½ season low condensed by improved growing and resolved 1.11% reduced. Excellent plants circumstances, objectives of greater results in and a fender outcome also condensed costs. USDA prediction greater than predicted outcome. Harvest is 10% finish in comparison to 10% last season.

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The USDA per month plants review in Sept prediction 2014­15 outcome at 3.913 bn bsh against 3.289 bn bsh last season while end shares are prediction at 475 mn bsh against 430 mn bsh prediction in This summer. 2013­14 end shares are prediction at 140 mn bsh. The review prediction South america outcome at 94 mn tn against of 87.5 mn tn and Argentina outcome at 55 mn tn against 54 mn tn last season. Planting in the US is finish at 84.839 mn miles. Excellent to excellent condition was standing at 72% against 71% last week. According to NOPA, soybean smashing in Aug was revealed at 110.633 mn bsh, against 119.620 mn bsh in June

RAPE/MUSTARD SEED Mustard seeds futures trading exchanged on a positive note on Wednesday on good requirement for oil as well as food exports and settled 0.5% greater. NCDEX has made changes in agreements expiring in Apr ’15 and thereafter. Please relate the round for information. Mustard food business improved 16.13% to 105,375 tn in Aug ’14 in comparison to 90,735 tn in Aug’13. Planting of mustard seeds in 2013­14 was standing at 7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Farming ministry in its 4th enhance reports has placed 2013­14 mustard output at 7.96 mn tn, down 0.85% in comparison to 8.03 mn tn in 2012­13.

CHANA Chana futures trading with a positive note on Wednesday as reduced purchasing and joyful requirement reinforced price at lower levels. However, comfortabel supplies of chana and imports of yellow­colored beans assigned distinct benefits and closed 0.25% heigher. Prices have dropped over the last few several weeks on gradual requirement in the actual marketplaces along with history chana output in 2013­14. According to India Pulses and Grains Association, Apr­Dec’13 stood at import 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012­13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the preceding year. However, imports in 2013­ 14 season may decline 11% to 3.2 mn tn on expectations of higher output. According to APEDA, Pulses exports (kabuli chana) between Apr­Feb ’14 rose 228% to 517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between Apr­Feb ’13. According to the Secretary of state for Farming, planting of kharif impulses as on Twenty fifth Sept appears 6.5% reduced at 10.11 mn ha as against 10.81 mn ha last season. planting of tur, urad and moong take a position at 3.56 mn ha, 2.5 mn ha and

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2.15 mn ha respectively. CCEA improved the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was improved by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. The 4th Enhance Reports placed complete impulses outcome for 2013­14 at 19.27 mn tn, up from 18.34 mn tn previously. There was a wait in the growing of the chana plants along with some plants harm in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. As per the Secretary of state for Farming, place under Rabi Pulses 2013­14 was standing at 161.9 lakh ha as against 152.65 lakh ha last season. Chana planting was standing at 10.21 mn ha in comparison to 9.51 mn ha during the same interval last season.

JEERA Jeera futures fixed from greater stages and settled 1.86% reduced on benefit taking as the price hit the higher routine restrict on Thursday. Prices obtained considerably on company exports information. Prices have dropped over the last few several weeks on gradual household requirement and large carryover shares. Area under jeera in Gujarat was revealed at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last season while about 390,000 ha were planted in Rajasthan. Geo­political stress in Syria and Poultry have led to a provide crisis in the international marketplaces increasing provide issues from the two significant dispatching nations. Business purchases are redirected to Indian. Manufacturing is also predicted to drop in Syria and Poultry due to plants failing. Exports of Jeera between Apr­July 2014 was standing at 58,000 tn, up 40% as against 43,898 tn between Apr­July 2013. (Source: Spices or herbs Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have surpassed 1,00,000 loads until Feb’14. Manufacturing of Jeera in 2013­14 is predicted around 45­50 lakh purses (55 kgs each), greater than 40­45 lakh purses last season.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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