✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 APR 15
613
603
593
587
583
577
573
563
553
SYBEANIDR
20 APR 15
3420
3399
3374
3363
3349
3338
3324
3299
3274
RMSEED
20 APR 15
3484
3450
3420
3400
3385
3365
3350
3320
3285
JEERAUNJHA
20 MAR 15
15975
15515
15060
14875
14605 14420 14155 13695
13245
CHANA
20 APR 15
3770
3735
3705
3690
3675
3660
3640
3610
3575
CASTORSEED
20 MAR 15
3880
3800
3720
3675
3640
3595
3560
3480
3400
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 APR 15
667
641
615
598
589
575
563
537
511
SYBEANIDR
20 APR 15
3690
3585
3480
3416
3375
3311
3270
3165
3060
RMSEED
20 APR 15
3672
3580
3488
3435
3396
3343
3304
3212
3120
JEERAUNJHA
20 MAR 15
18325
17165
16000
15345
14845 14185 13,685 12,525
11365
CHANA
20 APR 15
3967
3873
3779
3728
3685
3634
3591
3497
3403
CASTORSEED
20 MAR15
4060
3926
3926
3712
3680
3578
3524
3390
3256
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
ALUMINIUM
31 MAR 15
R4 117
R3 115
R2 113
R1 112
PP 111
S1 110
S2 108
S3 106
S4 104
COPPER
30 APR 15
386
382
378
376
373
372
369
365
361
CRUDE OIL
19 MAR15
4289
4158
4027
3946
3896
3815
3765
3634
3503
GOLD
03APR 15
26444
26246
26048
25980
25850
25782
25652
25454
25256
LEAD
31 MAR 15
121
118
115
113
112
110
109
106
103
NATURAL GAS 26 MAR 15
188
182
177
176
172
170
167
162
157
NICKEL
31 MAR 15
944
925
906
899
887
880
868
849
849
SILVER
05 MAY 15
36321
36055
35789
35676
35523
35,410
35257
34991
34725
ZINC
31 MAR15
130
129
128
127
126
126
125
124
122
R3
R2
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31 MAR 15
120
117
114
112
111
109
107
104
101
COPPER
30 APR 15
405
394
382
378
371
367
360
349
337
CRUDE OIL
19 MAR15
4022
3671
3320
3092
2969
2741
2618
2267
1916
GOLD
03APR 15
27568
27001
26434
26173
25867
25606
25300
24733
24166
LEAD
31 MAR 15
125
121
117
114
112
109
108
104
100
NATURAL GAS 26 MAR 15
208
197
185
179
174
168
162
151
140
NICKEL
31 MAR 15
1,061
1,005
948
920
892
864
835
779
722
SILVER ALUMINIUM
05 MAY 15 31 MAR 15
39449 120
38148 117
36847 114
36205 112
35546 111
34904 109
34245 107
32944 104
31643 101
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � INTERNATIONAL NEWS Chinese economy faces big downward pressures: China registered 7.4 percent growth last year, slowest in 24 years. A recent IMF forecast said China's growth rate would further decline to 6.8 this year and 6.3 next year. Admitting that China's economy is facing considerable downward pressures due to the slowdown, the new GDP target of around 7 percent set for this year is not easy to meet but the government has host of policy to halt the slide. "This year we set the anticipated GDP target approximately 7 percent. It is true that we have adjusted downward our GDP target but it will by no means easy for us to meet this target," annual press conference at the end of the 10-day meeting of the legislature, the National People's Congress (NPC). China registered 7.4 percent growth last year, slowest in 24 years. A recent IMF forecast said China's growth rate would further decline to 6.8 this year and 6.3 next year. Li said because China's economic aggregate is expanding it size now is valued at about USD 10 trillion which is equivalent to the total economy of a medium sized country. Russian economy is ready to grow: While the political impact of the opposition leader Boris Nemtsov's killing has been limited in Russia, it has fueled demands for new sanctions against Moscow in the West. Meanwhile, Russian equity valuations suggest potential for a strong performance over the coming months. After a year of sanctions and a contraction, the Russian economy is ready for the upside. What it needs are economic reforms and international integration - not further sanctions and geopolitical isolation. While the political impact of the opposition leader Boris Nemtsov's killing has been limited in Russia, it has fueled demands for new sanctions against Moscow in the West. Meanwhile, Russian equity valuations suggest potential for a strong performance over the coming months. The ailing post-sanctions economy In pre-sanctions Russia, growth was expected to remain weak in 2014-2015 due to stagnant oil demand, while institutional weaknesses reflected a poor investment climate. In early 2014, markets projected growth of 1.7 percent for 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2015, with a deceleration of inflation to about 5 percent and a policy rate of 5 percent. With sanctions in place, the Russian economy wound up contracting 3.5 percent in 2014. Even in a benign scenario, Moscow can only expect flat growth in 2015. With subdued oil prices and weak ruble, only exports are driving growth. Euro sinks to 12-year lows as yield gap grows: In a dollar rally that began last July the single currency has lost around a quarter of its value, and there is little sign of that bottoming out. Deutsche Bank on Tuesday forecast a fall to 85 US cents by the end of 2017. The euro dived to its lowest since early 2003 against the dollar on Wednesday, dragging other European currencies with it on the back of the huge differences developing in market interest rates between Europe and the United States. In a dollar rally that began last July the single currency has lost around a quarter of its value, and there is little sign of that bottoming out. Deutsche Bank on Tuesday forecast a fall to 85 US cents by the end of 2017. That comes largely courtesy of the collapse in European bond yields, which are set to stay low for the foreseeable future under the programme of money-printing launched by the European Central Bank on Monday. Yields on German 30-year government bonds are now lower than those on US two-year paper. The picture for European stock markets, given the projected 1 trillion of new euros set to flow
into the financial sector, is less grim, and the main indexes were all higher in early trade.
� BULLION Gold imports rise to $1.98 bn in February: As per data released by the Commerce Ministry this month, the gold shipments in February jumped 48.78 percent on a year-on-year basis. India is the largest importer of gold, which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery industry. old imports in February rose to USD 1.98 billion (Rs 12,293 crore), the second successive monthly rise. Gold imports had inched up in January 2015 to USD 1.55 billion. Despite easing in gold import norms, the shipments had dropped sharply in December 2014. The December import figure stood at USD 1.34 billion, about one-fourth of the quantity in November. As per data released by the Commerce Ministry this month, the gold shipments in February jumped 48.78 percent on a year-on-year basis. India is the largest importer of gold, which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery industry. In November 2014, the RBI had eased restrictions on gold imports by scrapping the controversial 80:20 scheme. Under the 80:20 norm, put in place in August 2013 to curb high gold inflows that was widening the current account deficit, at least 20 percent of the imported gold had to be mandatorily exported before bringing in new lots. Government has been repeatedly asking people to desist from buying gold and instead invest in other saving instruments. Gold demand in Asia picks up due to lower prices :Demand for gold picked up across Asia this week as bullion prices dropped to their lowest level in three months after the longest losing streak in more than 40 years, but caution still prevailed, traders said. Gold, trading at about USD 1,158 an ounce on Friday, touched USD 1,147.10 on Wednesday, the lowest since Dec. 1. The metal fell for nine straight sessions to Thursday, the longest losing streak since 1973. The lower prices attracted bargain-hunters across Asia, the top consuming region, although wariness over the price outlook kept a lid on purchases. In top consumer India, premiums remained largely unchanged from last week's levels at about USD 1.50 to USD 2.50 an ounce. "Demand has increased a little bit because of the drop in prices but there is no big rush," "This is the last month of the financial year so there is some liquidity crunch in the market. That is quite seasonal, but that's also curbing some purchases," he said. Indian demand could pick up pace next month with the onset of the wedding season. The festival of Akshaya Tritaya, considered an auspicious time to buy gold, could also boost demand and imports in April, he said. In second-biggest consumer China, premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the platform over which all Chinese physical trades are conducted, was steady on last week's levels at about USD 4-USD 5, though some noted that volumes had slowed recently.
� BASE METAL LME Copper prices to trade sideways: LME Copper prices is expect to trade sideways as pressure on policymakers to introduce broad-based stimulus measures will be supportive. Also, estimates of favorable inflation and consumer sentiments data from the US will act as a positive
factor. Base metals on the LME traded mostly higher on Thursday as dollar index weakened by 0.4 providing respite to the falling prices. LME copper, Nickel, rose the most in the base metals pack gaining 2.1 and 1.4 percent respectively while Lead, Zinc gained by 0.7 and 0.3 percent respectively In the Indian markets, base metals traded mostly positive in line with international trends. Copper LME Copper prices jumped by 2.1 percent as credit growth expanded more than forecast in China, the world’s largest user of industrial metal. Also, triggered short-covering coupled with a dip in the US dollar offered support. MCX copper prices surged by 1.7 percent and closed at Rs.371.2/kg on Thursday. Outlook We expect LME Copper prices to trade sideways as pressure on policymakers to introduce broad-based stimulus measures will be supportive. Also, estimates of favorable inflation and consumer sentiments data from the US will act as a positive factor. On the MCX, copper prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from international markets.
✍ ENERGY Oil prices drop on strong dollar, US crude hits 6 year low: US crude fell to USD 43.57, the lowest since March 2009, while Brent slipped to USD 53.34 in early trading on Monday after the dollar index closed above 100 on Friday for the first time since April 2003 to hit fresh 12-year highs. Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trade on Monday, with US crude dropping more than 2 percent to a six-year low after the dollar hit fresh highs and concerns grew that the United States might run out of oil storage. Both US crude and Brent have dropped steeply this month on a stronger dollar and worries over an oil supply glut. US crude fell to USD 43.57, the lowest since March 2009, while Brent slipped to USD 53.34 in early trading on Monday after the dollar index closed above 100 on Friday for the first time since April 2003 to hit fresh 12-year highs. By 2330 GMT, U.S. crude was down 93 cents, or 2.1 per cent, at USD 43.91 a barrel, and Brent was down 97 cents at USD 53.70 a barrel. The Fed's policy-setting committee meets this week with the expectation that it could tighten monetary policy as soon as June. NYMEX crude prices down sharply in Asia as supply worries weigh: Crude oil prices sharply on Monday in Asia as supply worries weighed on sentiment. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April plunged 2.19% to $46.03 a barrel. Last week, crude oil futures fell sharply on Friday to hit the lowest level in six weeks, following the release of a mostly bearish report from the International Energy Agency on global oil supply and demand. In its closely-watched monthly oil market report released Friday, the IEA warned that an oil-price recovery remained fragile amid a production rebound in the U.S.
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Use e-auction to procure agri commodities: Govt to states The central government has written to all state governments to opt, where possible, for e-auctions to procure agricultural commodities. This is part of a plan to get going in a national
common market for agri products, linking all the wholesale markets run by Agricultural Produce Marketing Committees. According to the official Economic Survey for 2014-15, there are 2,477 principal regulated markets based on geography and 4,843 sub-market yards regulated by the APMCs. The Centre aims to link all these, to create one market. The first step has been to get each state to change its APMC law, to allow private market yards or markets. Some states have denotified fruit and vegetables from their Act. This is not considered enough and the recommendation on e-auction is the next step. Half a dozen states have begun procuring sugar for public distribution by using the e-auction facilities provided by NCDEX E-Markets (NEML), a subsidiary of the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). The Centre has lauded NCDEX’s mandi modernisation programme (MMP), under which all APMCs of Karnataka have already been linked electronically and farmers get one state price for commodities traded on this common platform. The Survey said in Karnataka, 51 of the 155 main market yards and 354 sub-yards have been integrated into a single licensing system. Rashtriya e-market Services, a joint venture created by the state government and NCDEX Spot Exchange, offers automated auction and post auction facilities (weighting, invoicing, market fee collection, accounting), assaying facilities in the markets, facilitation of warehouse-based sale of produce, commodity funding and price dissemination NCDEX is also implementing a Unified Market Platform, whereby all mandis in the state are being unified for single trading. Apart from Karnataka, it has started unifying mandis in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Among other states in discussion with NEML are Punjab, Haryana and UP. NCDEX has also launched forward trading in several agricultural commodities, such as castor seed, cumin, maize and sugar. The exchange has started a membership drive specially for farmer producer organisations, through which farmers can sell their produce directly on the NCDEX forwards segment. There are lakhs of physical traders who buy commodities from APMC markets nationwide. The forwards segment provides them an alternative platform to sell these.�
� Chana falls Concerns over lesser output due to lower sowing acreage restricted the losses Chana prices were down by 0.22% to Rs 3,645 per quintal in futures traded on wednesday, largely in tandem with subdued demand at sot markets.
However, concerns over lesser output due to lower sowing acreage restricted the losses. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in April eased by Rs 8, or 0.22% to Rs 3,645 per quintal with an open interest of 1,75,150 lots. Similarly, the commodity for delivery in May contracts traded lower by the same margin to Rs 3,654 per quintal in 1,04,730 lots. It can be said offloading of positions by speculators, amid subdued demand in spot market against adequate stocks position, mainly influenced chana prices at futures tradew
� Refined soya oil up, Oil for delivery in May contract edged up by 0.10% Refined soya oil prices rose by 0.35% to Rs 562.25 per 10 kg in futures traded on monday as speculators created fresh position, driven by pick-up in demand in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in June rose by Rs 1.95, or 0.35%, to Rs 562.25 per 10 kg with an open interest of 1,19,740 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in May contract edged up by 60 paise, or 0.10% to Rs 581.60 per 10 kg in 86,500 lots. Besides pick-up in demand in the spot market, tight supplies from producing belts mainly helped refined soya oil prices to trade higher at futures trade.
� Castorseed down 0.8% on subdued demand Castorseed prices fell by Rs 35 to Rs 3,902 per quintal in futures traded on Wednesday after speculators positions triggered by higher output estimates and weak domestic as well as export demand. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, castorseed for delivery in February dropped by Rs 35, or 0.89%, to Rs 3,902 per quintal with an open interest in 50,810 lots. Also, March contracts moved down by Rs 22, or 0.55%, to Rs 3,951 per quintal, having an open interest of 83,660 lots. We can say that, the fall in castroseed prices at futures trade to offloading of positions by speculators triggered by higher production estimates and weak domestic and export demand at spot markets.
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