Commodity report by ways2capital 06 nov 2014

Page 1

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV-14

615

612

609

606

603

599

596

592

588

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3385

3362

3340

3320

3305

3280

3265

3235

3200

RMSEED

20-NOV-14

3805

3780

3760

3740

3715

3695

3675

3650

3630

JEERAUNJHA

20-NOV-14

11890

11735 11580

11485

11425 11330 11270 11115

DHANIYA

20-NOV-14

12650

12452 12255

12180

12054 11985 11858 11660 11465

CASTORSEED

20-NOV-14

4945

4915

4890

4872

4815

4790

4765

4740

4710

10960

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV-14

632

626

614

607

602

595

591

579

568

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3598

3522

3411

3342

3297

3228

3183

3068

2980

RMSEED

20-NOV-14

3854

3817

3782

3762

3747

3727

3712

3677

3638

JEERAUNJHA

20-NOV-14

12035

11835 11635

11524

11425 11325 11222 11035 10880

DHANIYA

20-NOV-14

12755

12503 12377

12172

12046 11841 11715 11510 11305

CASTORSEED

20-NOV-14

4970

4925

4848

4802

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4879

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4771

4725

4694

4818

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-NOV-14 134

132

129

127

125

123

121

118

115

COPPER

28-NOV-14 426

423

421

419

416

412

409

406

402

CRUDE OIL

19-NOV-14 5030

5015

5000

4980

4960

4945

4920

4905

4890

GOLD

5-DEC-14

27620

26911

26532

26201

25813

25490

24780

24070

LEAD 28-NOV-14 131 . NATURAL GAS 24-NOV-14 261

129

127

125

123

121

119

117

115

259

256

253

250

245

242

239

236

NICKEL

28-NOV-14 1035

1010

990

976

960

945

930

915

890

SILVER

5-DEC-14

38400

37090

36445

35780

35135

34470

33160

31850

ZINC

28-NOV-14 150

148

146

144

141

139

137

135

133

28330

39700

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-NOV-14 137

135

133

131

129

126

124

122

119

COPPER

28-NOV-14 431

427

423

419

416

412

408

404

400

CRUDE OIL

19-NOV-14 5075

5050

5025

4995

4970

4930

4895

4865

4830

GOLD

5-DEC-14

29215

27818

26975

26420

25580

25040

23640 22258

LEAD

28-NOV-14 136

133

130

127

125

123

120

117

114

NATURAL GAS

24-NOV-14 265

261

257

253

250

244

241

237

234

NICKEL

28-NOV-14 1100

1070

1040

1010

980

950

920

890

860

SILVER

5-DEC-14

43150

39800

37850

36460

34450

33118

29770 26425

ZINC

28-NOV-14 154

151

149

146

143

140

137

134

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30600

46500

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131

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� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS US Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, beating economists' expectations for a 3.0 percent pace. The State Council, China's cabinet, said on Wednesday it would promote consumption in sectors including e-commerce, new energy, housing, tourism, education and sport. China Railway Corporation said all 64 railway projects planned for this year had been approved and would start by the end of the year. The Fed pointed to strengthening labor markets, saying that slack in labor markets was "gradually diminishing." Two of China's biggest banks reported sharply higher bad loans for the third quarter, with one adding that a credit crunch squeezing small companies in the country's export-oriented eastern provinces may be spreading westward. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 87 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, a little more than the 85-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll.

Precious Metals Silver was down 3.7 percent at $16.41 an ounce on Thursday, having earlier hit its lowest level since March 2010 at $16.30 an ounce. A smaller trade deficit and a surge in defense spending buoyed U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, but other details of Thursday's report hinted at some loss of momentum in activity. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, beating economists' expectations for a 3.0 percent pace. While the pace of growth in business investment, housing and consumer spending slowed from the second quarter, all those categories contributed to growth. Gold fell 1 percent to $1,200 an ounce and silver plunged to its lowest level in more than fourand-a-half years on Thursday, hit by strong third-quarter U.S. economic growth and worries the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates sooner than expected. A smaller trade deficit and a surge in defense spending buoyed U.S. growth in the third quarter, but domestic demand slipped, hinting at some loss of momentum, Commerce Department data showed. FollowWeb: www.ways2capital.com

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through selling continued in the gold market a day after the U.S. central bank gave upbeat comments about U.S. economic growth and ended its year-long, bond-buying stimulus program. Analysts said expectations the Fed could hike interest rates sooner than forecast, further strengthening the dollar, could increase the pressure on gold prices.

Base metal Copper fell more than 1 percent on Thursday as the dollar rallied on strong U.S. growth data and the Federal Reserve's relatively hawkish tone on monetary policy. A smaller trade deficit and a surge in defence spending buoyed U.S. economic growth in the third quarter to a better-than-expected 3.5 percent annual rate. That data plus a show of confidence from the Fed in the U.S. economy's prospects sent the dollar to a 3-1/2-week high. A strong dollar makes dollar-priced metals more costly for European and other non-U.S. investors. Also weighing on copper, two of China's biggest banks reported sharply higher bad loans for the third quarter, with one adding that a credit crunch squeezing small companies in the country's export-oriented eastern provinces may be spreading westward. Limiting losses in the metal, Chinese shares touched a 20-month high after the government said it would promote consumption in six sectors of the economy, including housing. China consumes about 45 percent of the world's copper. In positive news for zinc, which is used in galvanising steel, China Railway Corp said all 64 railway projects planned for 2014 had been approved and would start by the end of the year

Energy Oil prices closed down 1 percent on Thursday, resuming their downtrend after a two-day climb, as the dollar rallied on bets of a sooner-than-expected U.S. rate hike and traders placed little hope on OPEC cutting output at its November meeting. Both benchmark Brent and U.S. crude gained about 1 percent a day earlier as U.S. crude stockpiles rose less than expected last week, ending two weeks of builds that pressured the market. But sentiment in oil weakened again in the latest session as the dollar hit a three-week high after the Federal Reserve ended its long-running bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the currency, including oil, costlier for buyers using other denomination. A 3.5 percent annual rise in third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product reported on Thursday Web: www.ways2capital.com

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also reinforced investor confidence over the economy, lending to a more hawkish interest rate outlook. U.S. natural gas futures ended 1 percent higher on Thursday on forecasts for colder-thannormal temperatures and strong heating demand over the next two weeks despite a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 87 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, a little more than the 85-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. For the next five days, MDA Weather Services forecast that a strong autumn cold snap would blanket the eastern half of the United States LME Inventory 17-10-2014 Last updated at OCT 31 02:30 pm IST

Metal

Change from previous day

Aluminium

-5900

Copper

-25

Lead

unch

Nickel

1680

Tin

-25

Zinc

-2125

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Jeera Jeera November traded on a positive note on Thursday on overseas demand and firm exports data and settled 0.4% higher. However, huge carryover stocks capped sharp gains. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Web: www.ways2capital.com

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Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Exports of Jeera between Apr-July 2014 stood at 58,000 tn, up 40% as against 43,898 tn between Apr-July 2013. (Source: Spices Board) .According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013-14 is expected around 45-50 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.

SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Indian oilseed complex prices closed mixed yesterday with Soy oil moving lower as traders booked profits after the recent sharp rally. Rupee closed lower. • Traders estimate this year’s crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. • According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.82 million MT. • Soy meal exports from India fell to 868 MT in September from 2,778 MT in August. India's oil meal exports in September 2014 were 82K MT vs. 136K MT in previous month. CBOT Soy complex prices ended mixed yesterday with bean and meal falling after the recent surge in prices. • USDA said on Thursday morning that weekly old-crop export sales of soybeans were 1.326 million MT, in line with market forecasts. Soy meal export sales came in at 147,800 MT, slightly below trade forecasts for 150,000 to 300,000 MT. • As of 26 October, US Soybeans were 70% harvested vs. 53% a year ago. • According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 21 October, non commercial traders reduced their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. • ICE Canola prices closed higher yesterday

CHANA Chana futures surged higher on Thursday. Total Volumes and OI increased on Thursday compared to previous trading day.Arrivals increased in the spot markets and capped

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upside.Prices were influenced on speculation that prices in the spot markets moved higher on strong demand against tight supplies from producing belts.Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 30 October 2014 was 34,097 MT. Chana allocated and delivered on NCDEX in October: - 16,710 MT and 16,710 MT respectively. NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 660.35/100Kg. In other news, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Chana to be revised from 3100/Qtl to 3175/Qtl. As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13. As per data released by Directorate of Economics & Statistics, acreage under Rabi Pulses as on October 24, 2014 has declined to 3.31 lakh hectare as compared to 3.78 lakh hectare during the corresponding period of last year. They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13. Production of Urad is forecasted to be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 1.43 million MT in2012-13.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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