WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT
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NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-JULY-14 713.10 706.30 698.50 695.40 691.50 688.70 684.30 677.20 670.40
SYBEANIDR
18-JULY-14 4231
4140
4149
4007
3958
3916
3867
3776
3682
RMSEED
18-JULY-14 3632
3582
3536
3516
3488
3468
3440
3392
3322
JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 11856 11636 11416 11302 11196 11083 10976 10756 10536 DHANIYA
18-JULY-14 12622 12153 11684 11507 11215 11038 10746 10277 9808
CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 4694
4557
4420
4362
4283
4255
4146
4009
3874
WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80
SYBEANIDR
18-JULY-14 4613
4406
4199
4082
3992
3875
3785
3578
3371
RMSEED
18-JULY-14 3820
3716
3612
3554
3508
3450
3404
3300
3196
R4
JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 12423 12023 11623 11406 11223 11006 10823 10423 10023 DHANIYA
18-JULY-14 13030 12408 11786 11558 11164 10936 10548 9920
CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 5316 SYOREFIDR
4993
4670
4487
4347
4164
4024
3701
9298 3378
18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80
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NCDEX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CHANA MCX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Important News •
US nonfarm payroll moved to 288K vs 224K prev (rev 217K).
•
Unemployment rate in US moves down to 6.1% vs 6.3% prev
•
ECB ready to create money in future if needed, says ECB chief Mario.
•
Indian Rupee was weak against US dollar and is currently trading at 59.9000.
Precious Metals U.S. Comex gold futures for August delivery remained down by 0.77%. Gold for August delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained at `27,464/10gms and silver moved down to`44,847/kg Gold was steady on Friday after sharp overnight losses, but the metal was at risk of further declines as strong U.S. jobs data and record highs on Wall Street dented bullion's safehaven appeal. .employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a sixyear low, decisive evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. A plan by India's central bank to swap old gold in its vaults for purer metal abroad that it could pledge or sell would have the added benefits of reducing gold imports and easing pressure on the balance of payments. Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year as the government tightens controls on gold financing deals and domestic demand softens.
Base Metals In New York, COMEX copper for June delivery stayed up 0.38% for the day. Three month copper on the London Metal Exchange copper was up by 0.55% at $7173 a tonne. London copper rose on Friday and was set to forge its biggest weekly climb in nine months, as an upbeat U.S. jobs report fired optimism over economic growth. The global economy ended the first half on a high as business activity picked up in June, with new orders pouring in at their fastest rate in over three years. U.S. employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a sixyear low, decisive evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. We expect copper prices to remain further high for the next week as positive data from US
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and supply constraints can push the copper prices higher. Other base metals can follow copper and can move in range to higher for the day.
Energy Crude Oil U.S. crude oil futures settled down by 0.40% at $104.06 per barrel. U.S. crude futures are set to post their biggest weekly loss in a month on receding worries about supply from Libya and Iran, although expectations of an improvement in the outlook for demand in the world's top oil consumer checked losses. Iran has reduced demands for the size of its future nuclear enrichment programme in talks with world powers although Western governments are urging Tehran to compromise further. Militants from the Islamic State group seized control of Syria's largest oil field from rival Islamist fighters on Thursday, strengthening its advance across the eastern Deir al Zor province. We expect Crude oil prices to remain in a range for the next week as supply ease & easing tensions can pressure the Crude prices. Natural Gas – U.S. natural gas futures ended up 1 percent on Thursday after the government reported a big storage build that matched but did not exceed expectations, while nextday gas in New York fell to a twoyear low on forecasts of weaker demand. Frontmonth gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 4.9 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $4.406 per million British thermal units. Utilities added 100 billion cubic feet of gas into storage last week. We expect Natural gas to remain in a range to down for the next week. Some Important data set to be release in Upcoming Week. CNY CPI y/y PPI y/y Trade Balance USA JOLTS Job Openings FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks FOMC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Cliams Crude Oil inventory Web: www.ways2capital.com | Call: 07316554125 | Mail: info@ways2capital.com
Natural Gas inventory Fed Chair Yellen Speaks NCDEX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MANSOON WATCH • Monsoon progress this week however remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. • Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 43% below normal till date SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 04/07/2014 9.15 A.M.
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CHANA Chana traded in a range bound as no strong Fundamental report emerged in the mandis. With Monsoon set to recover in 12 days, as per IMD reports, the uptrend may be limited for Pulses as a whole. Sentiments continue to remain very volatile based on this factor. Uptrend however seems limited for the counter as Govt aggressively focusses on controlling Price rise and an improved Monsoon prospect could keep overall Pulses sentiments weak . Higher Pulses production for 201314 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Food grains in 201314 at Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments. SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Soybean acres were estimated at 84.8 million acres, 2.6 million acres above the trade estimate. Soybean stocks were estimated at 405 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 378 million bushels. South west monsoon is causing concern in soybean growing areas, as there has not been any significant development and next two weeks will be crucial in deciding the production figures. The prices in mandis also remained firm with steady off take. The international markets are bearish as US farmers are planting record soybean and some support can be seen ahead of the long weekend in US. As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the oil seed sowing is down by 4.22 lakh hectares compared to last year during the same period and Soybean sowing is lower by 0.76 lakh hectares. The soy oil remained under pressure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov Oct). Exports of soybean oil from the top four shipping countries rose to 4.486 million tons from October through May, 5.2 percent higher than a year earlier. India’s purchases jumped 88 percent to 1.279 million tons, making it the world’s biggest importer. Iran, normally a major buyer of soybean oil, didn’t import any during April and May amid Web: www.ways2capital.com | Call: 07316554125 | Mail: info@ways2capital.com
large stockpiles and attractive prices for competing sunflower oil. Purchases by China and Egypt have also been considerably reduced recently. CUMIN SEED (JEERA) Moderate recovery was observed for Jeera as trading activities improved in the mandis. Unjha mandi rates traded firm as Exports rose. Low arrivals further supported the prices. Any further pickup in Exports in coming days (as expected) could perk up prices further in the near term. Traders expect the downtrend to remain limited as Exports are expected to pick up in coming weeks at these lower levels. A firmness in Dollar vs Re could be beneficial for the Exporters. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary exporter for this commodity as of now. Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.57 million bags of 55 kg each in the year 2014, from 4.55 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favorable weather conditions.
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