Commodity report by ways2capital 07 july 2014

Page 1

WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT

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NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-JULY-14 713.10 706.30 698.50 695.40 691.50 688.70 684.30 677.20 670.40

SYBEANIDR

18-JULY-14 4231

4140

4149

4007

3958

3916

3867

3776

3682

RMSEED

18-JULY-14 3632

3582

3536

3516

3488

3468

3440

3392

3322

JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 11856 11636 11416 11302 11196 11083 10976 10756 10536 DHANIYA

18-JULY-14 12622 12153 11684 11507 11215 11038 10746 10277 9808

CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 4694

4557

4420

4362

4283

4255

4146

4009

3874

WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80

SYBEANIDR

18-JULY-14 4613

4406

4199

4082

3992

3875

3785

3578

3371

RMSEED

18-JULY-14 3820

3716

3612

3554

3508

3450

3404

3300

3196

R4

JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 12423 12023 11623 11406 11223 11006 10823 10423 10023 DHANIYA

18-JULY-14 13030 12408 11786 11558 11164 10936 10548 9920

CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 5316 SYOREFIDR

4993

4670

4487

4347

4164

4024

3701

9298 3378

18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80

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NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CHANA MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Important News •

US non­farm payroll moved to 288K vs 224K prev (rev 217K).

Unemployment rate in US moves down to 6.1% vs 6.3% prev

ECB ready to create money in future if needed, says ECB chief Mario.

Indian Rupee was weak against US dollar and is currently trading at 59.9000.

Precious Metals U.S. Comex gold futures for August delivery remained down by 0.77%. Gold for August delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained at `27,464/10gms and silver moved down to`44,847/kg Gold was steady on Friday after sharp overnight losses, but the metal was at risk of further declines as strong U.S. jobs data and record highs on Wall Street dented bullion's safe­haven appeal. .employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a six­year low, decisive evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. A plan by India's central bank to swap old gold in its vaults for purer metal abroad that it could pledge or sell would have the added benefits of reducing gold imports and easing pressure on the balance of payments. Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year as the government tightens controls on gold financing deals and domestic demand softens.

Base Metals In New York, COMEX copper for June delivery stayed up 0.38% for the day. Three month copper on the London Metal Exchange copper was up by 0.55% at $7173 a tonne. London copper rose on Friday and was set to forge its biggest weekly climb in nine months, as an upbeat U.S. jobs report fired optimism over economic growth. The global economy ended the first half on a high as business activity picked up in June, with new orders pouring in at their fastest rate in over three years. U.S. employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a six­year low, decisive evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. We expect copper prices to remain further high for the next week as positive data from US

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and supply constraints can push the copper prices higher. Other base metals can follow copper and can move in range to higher for the day.

Energy Crude Oil ­ U.S. crude oil futures settled down by 0.40% at $104.06 per barrel. U.S. crude futures are set to post their biggest weekly loss in a month on receding worries about supply from Libya and Iran, although expectations of an improvement in the outlook for demand in the world's top oil consumer checked losses. Iran has reduced demands for the size of its future nuclear enrichment programme in talks with world powers although Western governments are urging Tehran to compromise further. Militants from the Islamic State group seized control of Syria's largest oil field from rival Islamist fighters on Thursday, strengthening its advance across the eastern Deir al­ Zor province. We expect Crude oil prices to remain in a range for the next week as supply ease & easing tensions can pressure the Crude prices. Natural Gas – U.S. natural gas futures ended up 1 percent on Thursday after the government reported a big storage build that matched but did not exceed expectations, while next­day gas in New York fell to a two­year low on forecasts of weaker demand. Front­month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 4.9 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $4.406 per million British thermal units. Utilities added 100 billion cubic feet of gas into storage last week. We expect Natural gas to remain in a range to down for the next week. Some Important data set to be release in Upcoming Week. CNY CPI y/y PPI y/y Trade Balance USA JOLTS Job Openings FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks FOMC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Cliams Crude Oil inventory Web: www.ways2capital.com | Call: 0731­6554125 | Mail: info@ways2capital.com


Natural Gas inventory Fed Chair Yellen Speaks NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MANSOON WATCH • Monsoon progress this week how­ever remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. • Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 43% below normal till date SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 04/07/2014 9.15 A.M.

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CHANA Chana traded in a range bound as no strong Fundamental report emerged in the mandis. With Mon­soon set to recover in 1­2 days, as per IMD reports, the uptrend may be limited for Pulses as a whole. Sentiments continue to remain very volatile based on this factor. Up­trend however seems limited for the counter as Govt aggressively focusses on controlling Price rise and an improved Monsoon prospect could keep overall Pulses senti­ments weak . Higher Pulses production for 2013­14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Food grains in 2013­14 at Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments. SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Soybean acres were estimated at 84.8 million acres, 2.6 million acres above the trade estimate. Soybean stocks were estimated at 405 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 378 million bushels. South west monsoon is causing concern in soybean growing areas, as there has not been any significant development and next two weeks will be crucial in deciding the production figures. The prices in mandis also remained firm with steady off take. The international markets are bearish as US farmers are planting record soybean and some support can be seen ahead of the long weekend in US. As per Solvent Extractors’ Associa­tion of India, the oil seed sowing is down by 4.22 lakh hectares com­pared to last year during the same period and Soybean sowing is lower by 0.76 lakh hectares. The soy oil remained under pres­sure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov ­ Oct). Exports of soybean oil from the top four shipping countries rose to 4.486 million tons from October through May, 5.2 percent higher than a year earlier. India’s purchases jumped 88 percent to 1.279 million tons, making it the world’s biggest importer. Iran, normally a major buyer of soybean oil, didn’t import any during April and May amid Web: www.ways2capital.com | Call: 0731­6554125 | Mail: info@ways2capital.com


large stockpiles and attractive prices for competing sunflower oil. Purchases by China and Egypt have also been considerably reduced recently. CUMIN SEED (JEERA) Moderate recovery was observed for Jeera as trading activities improved in the mandis. Unjha mandi rates traded firm as Exports rose. Low arrivals further supported the prices. Any further pickup in Exports in coming days (as expected) could perk up prices further in the near term. Traders expect the downtrend to remain limited as Exports are expected to pick up in coming weeks at these lower levels. A firmness in Dollar vs Re could be beneficial for the Exporters. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary exporter for this commodity as of now. Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.5­7 million bags of 55 kg each in the year 2014, from 4.5­5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favorable weather conditions.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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