✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
669
667
665
663
661
658
656
654
652
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3550
3530
3510
3495
3480
3460
3440
3420
3400
RMSEED
20-04-2014
3630
3610
3580
3560
3540
3520
3500
3480
3460
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
15800
15700 15600
15500
15400 15300 15200 15100 15000
CHANA
20-02-2014
3640
3620
3600
3580
3560
3540
3520
3500
3480
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
4820
4800
4780
4760
4740
4720
4700
4680
4640
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
677
672
668
664
660
656
652
648
644
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3610
3570
3540
3510
3480
3440
3400
3360
3320
RMSEED
20-04-2014
3670
3640
3610
3580
3550
3520
3480
3440
3400
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
16400
16200 16000
15800
15600 15400 15200 15000 14800
CHANA
20-02-2014
3710
3670
3630
3590
3560
3530
3500
3460
3420
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
4870
4840
4810
4780
4740
4700
4660
4620
4580
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015 119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
COPPER
27-02-2015 393
391
389
387
385
383
381
379
377
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3140
3120
3100
3080
3060
3040
3020
3000
2980
GOLD
05-02-2015 27400
27300
27200
27100
27000
26800
26700
26600
26500
LEAD
30-01-2015 120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
NATURAL GAS 27-01-2015 193
192
191
190
189
188
186
185
184
NICKEL
30-01-2015 990
970
950
930
910
890
870
850
830
SILVER
05-03-2015 37800
37600
37400
37200
37000
36800
36600
36400
36200
ZINC
30-01-2015 138
137
136
135
134
133
132
131
130
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015 124
122
120
118
116
114
112
110
108
COPPER
27-02-2015 401
397
394
391
387
385
382
379
375
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3210
3170
3130
3090
3050
3010
2970
2930
2890
GOLD
05-02-2015 27900
27700
27500
27300
27100
26900
26700
26500 26300
LEAD
30-01-2015 123
121
119
117
115
113
111
109
107
NATURAL GAS
27-01-2015 199
196
193
190
187
184
181
179
177
NICKEL
30-01-2015 1060
1030
990
960
930
900
870
840
810
SILVER
05-03-2015 38400
38000
37600
37400
37000
36600
36200
35800 35400
ZINC
30-01-2015 142
140
138
136
134
132
130
128
126
� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS The US Dollar Index (DX) strengthened by 0.4 percent yesterday hit fresh nine-year highs against the other major currencies as growing expectations for an upcoming U.S. rate hike continued to boost the greenback. Further, companies added more workers than forecast in December, indicating the U.S. job market was sustaining strength in 2014 acted as a positive factor. The currency touched an intra- day high of 92.51 and closed at 92.12 on Wednesday. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change jumped by 241k in December as compared to a gain of 227k in November. Trade Balance declined by $39 billion in November as against a fall of $42.2 billion in October.
1.
Euro zone economic survey showed that consumers' inflation expectations 12 months ahead continued to fall, reaching 2.7 against 5.7 in November, well below the average since 1990 of 20.2.
2.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended Jan. 3, the US Labor Department said on Thursday.
3.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 131 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week.
The Indian Rupee bounced back after two days of fall and appreciated by 0.5 percent on fresh dollar selling by exporters and some banks. Further, sluggish Indian stock markets, fresh capital outflows amid firm dollar overseas could not restrict sharp upside. However, hopes of interest rate hike by the Fed in its meeting exerted pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intra day high of 63.16 and closed at 63.27 on Wednesday. PRECIOUS METAL Silver was down 1 percent at $16.35 an ounce. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week and job cuts declined sharply in December, suggesting the labor market is tightening. Thursday's reports support views of faster growth this year, driven by consumer spending, despite a faltering global economy. Gold fell for the second straight day on Thursday, in a choppy session weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising stock markets after being buoyed by expectations the Federal Reserve will be patient in raising interest rates. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday reassured markets that the central bank was in no hurry to raise interest rates, lifting European shares. Gold has benefited from years of increased central bank liquidity and a low interest rates environment, while higher U.S. interest rates would encourage investors
to put money into riskier assets such as stocks and bonds. Meanwhile, increasing speculation that Greece might exit the euro zone if a left-wing party that wants to cancel austerity measures wins the Jan. 25 elections could lift gold's demand from investors looking for protection. Among currencies, the dollar hit a 9-year high against the euro, as investors ramped up bets the European Central Bank was getting closer to loosening monetary policy to ward off deflation. Analysts are awaiting the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data for December on Friday, a key barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. An upbeat report is likely to support the view that the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.
BASE METAL Aluminum rebounded from lows on Thursday as some investors bought back short positions to lock in profits, but more losses were expected for copper and zinc ahead of the new year holiday in top metals consumer China. Copper, burdened by worries about oversupply, failed to sustain a bounce from 4-1/2 year lows the previous day, ending in the red again. At its lows on Wednesday, aluminum had shed 15 percent since late November as investors worried about smelters restarting capacity they had shut down. Also weighing on copper was more evidence of higher supplies as LME inventories rose to 179,225 tonnes, bringing the increase since last August to 27 percent Copper prices traded at a four and half year low on Wednesday, weighed by demand concerns and steep falls in oil that sapped investors' appetite for most commodities. Worries about the possibility that Greece will quit the euro zone have also dented appetite for risk. Also China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of global metal demand, is facing slower economic growth and a cooling property market, which is a major copper-consuming industry. China's annual economic growth likely slowed to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter, the weakest since the depths of the global crisis, which would keep pressure on policymakers to head off a sharper slowdown
ENERGY U.S. natural gas futures gained 2 percent on Thursday after the government reported a biggerthan-expected storage draw and on colder-than-normal forecasts for the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 131 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week.As on Wednesday, the latest weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states on Thursday called for colder-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with an expected 502 heating degree days.
Global oil prices were little changed for a second straight day on Thursday after better-thanexpected U.S. jobs data helped the market hold ground after a 10 percent loss earlier in the week. But support for oil was likely to be short-lived as market bears continue hunting for a bottom to the second-biggest price rout in crude's history, traders said. Some traders think oil prices could be at a crossroads after losing over half their value from June highs, and that could explain benchmark Brent's stalling at above $50 since Wednesday. Others believe the market has just been handed a reprieve before being hammered lower. Data on Thursday showed jobless claims in the United States fell last week, while a separate report said U.S. employers announced a total of 483,171 job cuts in 2014. That was 5 percent fewer than in 2013 and the smallest number since 1997. Expectations the European Central Bank could resort to stimulus measures after a rash of weak economic data and record crude imports by China in December, possibly due to attractive pricing, also helped sentiment, traders said. But the world's largest oil traders have also started hiring supertankers to store crude at sea, marking a milestone in the build-up of the global glut of supplies, freight brokers and shipping sources said.
LME INVENTORIES LME Inventories
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminium
Nickel
Current Stock
179225
221975
676375
4175750
415842
Change
550
0
-4475
-8650
30
% Change
0.31%
0.00%
-0.66%
-0.21%
0.01%
� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS RM SEED RMSeed rates stabilized at these levels even as traders anticipate good demand for Mustard Oil to prevent any strong fall in this commodity rates. The recent rains in growing states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and UP had kept pressure on the market sentiments but as demand rises, overall sentiments look set to move up. Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm.
Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amid falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments. Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was reportedly 5.25 lakh ha while it was 5.47 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during Oct. MP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 6.46 lakh ha while it was 7.87 in 2013-14. Due to good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 11.42 lakh ha while it was 10.37 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this period. As fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had sown Mustard early in UP. Mustard area coverage in All over India is 63.79 lakh Ha during Rabi 2014-15 and 67.00 lakh ha in 2013-14, area coverage during Rabi 2014-15 is lower. As per latest reports from Oil World, the output of mustard in Europe is expected to decline near 15% to 205 lakh tons, the lowest level in past 30 years, while it was 240 lakh tons last year. There is outbreak of insects on the mustard cops in Europe, as per the Oil World re-port, which may reduce the yield JEERA Lack of strong demand kept trend slight weak for Jeera even as traders anticipate exports to pick up in coming days. Low production reports amidst pickup in export demand are likely to lend strong support to the prices in the medium to long term though short term trend remains very volatile. The recent rains in the growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan had created possibilities of improved crop productivity. However with International markets opening after the recent holidays, export demand has started rising. As per latest Govt reports, in Guja-rat, normal area for Jeera crop is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till 5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. The sowing area during the current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan growing regions due to lower price as compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but output may fall this year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that the state received last week. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons. Latest report from Spice Board of India indicates pickup in exports during April-Sept 2014 period at 87500 tonnes (up from 70243 in April-Sept 2013) – a rise of 25% in Quantity and 2% in value. The targeted Export for 2014-15 period is 1,00,000 tonnes. With Indian produce being of superi-or quality, they fetch a premium w.r.t. International market
producing countries. Adverse reports from International producers would be beneficial for the Indian markets in the long term. The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too – which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term.
CHANA Chana traded with high volatility as prices bounced back from the lower levels as demand started rising in domestic market. With skies clearing up in North-West India, trend likely to remain firm for the counter in coming days. Lower sowing reports amid fall in stocks and improved domestic demand are likely to support the prices. Extending Duty-free import for Pulses till March 31 did create a temporary selling pressure. Fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and lower International production prospects could support prices in medium to long term however. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield. Reports from Australia indicate a 22.5% fall in Pulses production and more than 30% fall in Chick Peas production in 2014-15 vs that in 2013-14. Latest report from AP Agri Dept indicate Rabi Pulses sowing down 6% from 6.43 lakh ha as on 24.12.2013 to 6.02 lakh ha as on 24.12.2014. Rajasthan Agri Dept for Rabi Pulses indicates sowing indicates area at 15.36 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014, vs 15.28 lakh ha as on 19.12.2013. MP Agri Dept indicates Rabi Pulses sowing at 35.81 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014 vs 42.44 lakh ha previous year—down by 15.6%. As per Ministry of Agriculture, rabi pulses 2014-15 coverage till Dec 26 is down to 124.16 lakh Ha as com-pared with last year’s area coverage of 134.72 lakh hectare during the corresponding week. As on 2.1.2015, area planted under chana is down to 79.65 Lakh ha against 95.03 lakh ha in same period last year. All India Masoor area is down by 1.5%, Rabi Urad up by 7% and Moong down by 0.5% -as per latest Govt figures. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14.
REFI. SOYA Bullish trend persisted for Ref Soy Oil as good demand in domestic markets amid firmness in Interna-tional markets kept supporting the prices. Sources indicate some more recovery possible in the near term as demand picks up further. The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a medium term Bullish impact on prices—as per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%. Fall in International markets had so far kept pressure on the market sentiments while domestic markets traded firm. Rates however continue to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600 level. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since 2006/07. India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68 million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extracors' Association (SEA). India’s 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in 2012/13 season. Palm oil purchases were slightly lower at 7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last season. Sunflower oil imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13 estimate for 9.4 crore tons.
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