Commodity report by ways2capital 17 sep 2014

Page 1

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Call: 0731-6554125


NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

620

606

592

587

578

573

564

550

536

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3233

3173

3113

3086

3053

3026

2993

2933

2873

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3677

`3648

3619

3602

3590

3573

3562

3532

3503

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

11375

11190 11005

10885

10820 10700 10635 10450 10264

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

11990

11845 11660

11570

11495 11405 11330 11165

11000

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

4343

4234

4125

4076

4016

3967

3907

3798

3689

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

638

617

596

589

575

568

554

533

512

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3328

3226

3144

3094

3052

3002

2960

2868

2776

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3858

3768

3678

3632

3588

3542

3498

3408

3311

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

11725

11435 11145

10955

10855 10665 10565 10275 9985

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

13556

12921 12286

11883

11651 11248 11016 10381 9746

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

4853

4591

4178

4067

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

4329

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

3916

3805

3543

3284

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

28-AUG-14 127.90

126.30

124.70

123.85

123.10

122.25

121.50

119.50

118.30

COPPER

29-AUG-14 437

432

427

425

422

420

417

412

407

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 5900

5823

5746

5708

5669

5631

5592

5515

5438

GOLD

03-OCT-14 27476

27281

27806

26992

26891

26797

26696

26501

26306

LEAD 28-AUG-14 135.20 . NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 249.10

133.15

131.15

130.35

129.15

128.35

127.15

125.15

123.15

244.50

239.60

237.50

234.10

232.50

229.80

224.70

219.80

NICKEL

1159

1142

1132

1125

1115

1108

1091

1074

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

28-AUG-14 1176

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14 137.05

132.75

128.70

125.65

124.05 121.35

119.65

116.35 112.95

COPPER

29-AUG-14 469

454

439

431

424

416

409

392

379

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6180

5998

5816

5742

5634

5560

5452

5270

5088

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29126

28436

27746

27322

27056

26632

26366

25676 24916

LEAD

28-AUG-14 148.15

142.25

136.35

133

130.45 127.10

124.55

118.65 112.75

NATURAL GAS

26-AUG-14 284

268

252

243

236

227

220

204

188

NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1415

1326

1237

1180

1148

1091

1051

970

881

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

45665

44298

42933

42125

41568

40760

40203

38838 37473

ZINC

28-AUG-14 164.70

156.50

148.80

143.10

140.20 135.30

132.40

124.70 116.80

Web: www.ways2capital.com

R4

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Precious Metals Gold was a good under performer on Friday with the recording another slide backed by rising USD while weaker economic data from China lately raised worries over further demand drop for world’s largest buyer. Gold Comex Dec slipped 0.5% to $1239 an ounce while MCX October expiry fell 0.7% to Rs 26985/10 Gms Silver saw good drop a couple weeks ago with Comex and MCX marketplaces saw a drop over 1.5% and over 2% respectively. Higher drop regionally was on account of lower spot requirement and Rupee admiration. Sluggish requirement in Native indian also lead into under performance in Oct agreement as associated to far month. Herein we should look at significant factors which could keep perform negative on gold. European tumbled to levels a couple weeks ago after ECB reduced interest rate by 0.1% across the board as rising prices and growth stayed a issue. Money on the other part has been building up, enhanced by drop in European and also led by mostly company US economic information. Increasing USD has larger part to perform in recent drop in gold wherein both usually usually move inverse. Investment requirement in Silver has been displaying no enhancement. SPDR Silver having which declined nearly 40% in 2013 once again are re coding ongoing drop which current studying near 790 MT. International value marketplaces on the other part keep outshine, making gold to trade down whereas we are not seeing any significant issues associated with geopolitical part lately. Last 7 days, we saw mostly better information from US though Monthly Tasks numbers frustrated. However despite the bad studying, wider marketplaces expect this might be just a one-off event and not a pattern thus we feel stress on gold to proceed. Supported by these factors over wider positive outlook in the US economic system, continually rising value marketplaces and also looking at the increasing US Money, we maintain our bearish position on the product and look to sell the same on pullbacks next 7 days.

✍ BASE METALS All Base Metal trading down and on Friday too we saw its extended impact. We discuss birdwatcher it advancing for a third weekly fall due to symptoms that china’s financial system is likely to weaken further. We have to be actually careful nowadays about each especially Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


when we have the commercial manufacturing variety from major consumers of steel on the globe. Therefore, movements is very much likely nowadays. Since, the latest pattern have been bearish, we wish to maintain the same position with the exception of a few like dime. Economic data: Chinese suppliers launched its cash provide variety which has declined a tad especially the M1 and M2 cash. This indicates poor circulation of resources in the financial system, forcing soon a stimulus package. Japan: Industrial manufacturing, Germany: General price index, Euro-zone: Industrial manufacturing and the career information. India: CPI, likely to slowly down a bit and the IIP variety. US: retail sales, transfer cost catalog and the company stocks. Copper advancing for a third weekly fall and exchanged near a 12-week low among symptoms that China’s economic system is decline before commercial outcome information from the greatest customer of platform materials. Chinese suppliers is prediction to report commercial manufacturing in Aug increased by 8.8 %, according to the average calculate in a Bloomberg Information study. That would be down from 9 % in This summer and the second 30 days of reducing development. Consumer rising prices reduced to a four-month low in Aug and factory-gate costs prolonged their decrease to 30 several weeks, information launched last night show. Birdwatcher for distribution in three several weeks on the LME was little. For nowadays, we keep a bearish perspective on copper and suggest promoting from greater stages. We saw another day of decrease which resolved at $18370 down by more than $165 from its past close. Good news is very much obvious now that Filipino may not recommend to ban its ore exports and that was enough to carry down the dime costs intensely by more than 7 % in just two working classes. However, if we look at the price situation and the old tale of provide hardness possibly the steel may soon recovery greater. Therefore, for nowadays we are not indicating for a clean promoting while purchasing from 'abnormal' amounts is recommended. News: While dime led falls in base metals yesterday as issue over Filipino ore trade ban receded, the market still shifting into important lack in near phrase, ANZ says in e-mailed review. The concentrate on the Malaysia seems little short-sighted, with the market experiencing much larger issues around Indonesian trade ban.

� ENERGY Crude oil price in the US innovative from month lows on Friday , getting over a % as per the ending rate though Brent oil ongoing to stay under stress for most aspect of the period.WTI Oct agreement at NYMEX slid to $90.40 per barrel mark however handled powerful restoration

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


from there to close higher by 1.3% to $92.80 per gun barrel.While there were no significant hints regarding oil, MCX Raw too followed fit while was an under performer last night adding just 0.8% to Rs 5633 per gun barrel. As per the newest improvements, Oriental value marketplaces are trading sluggish publish the combined to sluggish Chinese suppliers loaning information which surged more than 80% on a MoM evaluation however still stood marginally reduced than objectives. Already we have seen Chinese PPI and CPI variety last night wherein both figures disappointed heavily and also one of the factors behind stress on industrial products lately such as oil. Looking at the oil costs, last night we saw US oil moving smartly from levels which was with better amounts which increase by near 27% at NYMEX however OI figures are unavailable to us right now. While we examine the same figures for MCX crude,data indicates Vol improved by 13% though OI dropped by a identical rate and thus illustrating towards a probably shortcovering publish the huge fall in costs in last few times. With Brent oil ongoing to trade on a sluggish observe, financial information from Chinese suppliers and EU remaining subdued, we think wide stress on oil costs would proceed.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � CHANA Chana Oct futures trading on a Negative note on Friday on enhanced in rain conditions, relaxed provides in the actual marketplaces and enhanced kharif impulses and settled 0.42% lower. However, lower demand and joyful purchasing cushioning the downside. Prices have dropped over the last few several weeks on gradual requirement in the actual marketplaces along with history chana outcome in 2013-14. According to the Secretary of state for Farming, planting of kharif impulses as on 4th Sept appears at 9.72 mn ha as against 10.37 mn ha last season. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong as on Twenty-first Aug appears at 3.48 mn ha, 2.42 mn ha and 2.03 mn ha respectively. CCEA improved the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was improved by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. The 4th Enhance Reports placed complete impulses outcome for 2013-14 at 19.27 mn tn, up from 18.34 mn tn previously. There was a wait in the growing of the chana plants along with some plants harm in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. As per the Secretary of state for Farming, place under Rabi Pulses 2013-14 was standing at 161.9 lakh ha as against 152.65 lakh ha last season. Chana planting was standing at 10.21 mn

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


ha in comparison to 9.51 mn ha during the same interval last season. Provides of Chana since past one season has been adequate as the country gained fender Chana outcome in 2012-13 season. For 2013-14 too, the govt in their 4th advance reports has estimated record outcome of at 9.88 mn loads in the Rabi season. Chana would however, continue to maintain the tag of biggest created beat plants in Native indian having a lion’s discuss of 48-50 percent in total Native indian Impulses manufacturing. According to Native indian Impulses and Grain Organization, Apr-Dec’13 was standing at transfer 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last season. In value terms, Native indian brought in $2.3 billion dollars of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% greater over $1.85 billion dollars in the previous season. However, imports in 2013-14 season may decrease 11% to 3.2 mn tn on objectives of greater outcome. According to APEDA, Impulses exports (kabuli chana) between Apr-Feb ’14 increased 228% to 517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between Apr-Feb ’13.

✍ SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Soybean futures trading retrieved from 'lower levels on Friday on short covers. Also investors squared off their roles ahead of the USDA per month review and resolved 1.34% greater. Costs have dropped over the last few several weeks on better than predicted growing, excellent down pours in the soy bean straps, inadequate soy food exports and inadequate worldwide marketplaces. According to Secretary of state for Farming soy bean growing as on 4th Sept is revealed at 10.96 mn ha compared to 12.17 mn ha last season. There have been issues over below normal monsoon this season, appearance of El-Nino and lack of plant seeds for kharif 2014 growing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soy bean the same at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. The Secretary of state for Farming in its 4th Advance Reports, estimated 2013-14 soy bean outcome at 11.99 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13. Soy food exports in Aug ’14 have dropped 98.49% to 2,778 tn from 183,555 tn in Aug ’13 on inadequate demand and reduced accessibility for smashing due to greater Native indian quotations for foreign customers. CBOT Soybean Nov futures trading exchanged on a negative note on Friday as USDA prediction greater than predicted outcome and resolved 1.23% reduced. Costs have dropped over the last few several weeks on excellent plants circumstances, objectives of greater results in and a fender outcome. The USDA per month plants review in Sept prediction 2014-15 outcome 3.913 bn bsh against 3.289 bn bsh last season while end shares are prediction at 475 mn bsh against 430 mn bsh prediction in This summer. 2013-14 end shares are prediction at 140 mn bsh. The review prediction South america outcome at 94 mn tn against of 87.5 mn tn and Argentina outcome at

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


55 mn tn against 54 mn tn last season.

✍ JEERA Jeera Oct futures trading exchanged on a negative on Wed on gradual requirement and huge carryover shares and made a new agreement low of Rs. 10800 . However, reduced stage requirement cushioning distinct disadvantage and resolved 0.37% reduced. Area under jeera in Gujarat was revealed at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last season while about 390,000 ha were planted in Rajasthan. Geo-political stress in Syria and Poultry have led to a provide crisis in the international marketplaces increasing provide issues from the two major dispatching nations. Trade purchases are redirected to Indian. Manufacturing is also predicted to fall in Syria and Poultry due to plants failing. Arrivals in Unjha were revealed at 6,000 purses on Wed. (Source: Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 was standing at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between AprDec 2012. (Source: Spices or herbs Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have surpassed 1,00,000 loads until Feb’14. Manufacturing of Jeera in 2013-14 is predicted around 45-50 lakh purses (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh purses last season.

✍ RM SEED Mustard seeds Oct futures trading exchanged on a positive observe on Friday on account of mustard food business requirement and decreasing appearance stress and resolved 0.61% higher.

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

Web: www.ways2capital.com

|

Mail: info@ways2capital.com

|

Contact: 1800-3010-2007 (Toll Free)


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.