✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-01-2015
608
606
604
603
602
599
597
595
593
SYBEANIDR
20-01-2015
3360
3340
3320
3290
3270
3245
3220
3205
3185
RMSEED
20-01-2015
4235
4220
4205
4190
4170
4145
4130
4115
4100
JEERAUNJHA
20-01-2015
14400
14300 14200
14100
14000 13800 13700 13600 13500
DHANIYA
20-01-2015
12500
12400 12300
12200
12100 12000 11800 11700 11600
CASTORSEED
20-01-2015
4900
4880
4860
4840
4820
4790
4770
4750
4730
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-01-2015
612
609
606
603
600
597
594
591
588
SYBEANIDR
20-01-2015
3410
3380
3350
3320
3280
3240
3200
3160
3120
RMSEED
20-01-2015
4270
4230
4200
4180
4140
4110
4070
4030
3990
JEERAUNJHA
20-01-2015
15000
14700 14400
14100
13800 13500 13200 12900 12600
DHANIYA
20-01-2015
13100
12900 12600
12300
12000 11700 11400 11100
10800
CASTORSEED
20-01-2015
4960
4930
4880
4850
4750
4900
4810
4790
4770
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31-12-2014 125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
COPPER
27-02-2015 415
414
413
412
411
409
407
405
403
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3770
3750
3730
3710
3690
3660
3640
3620
3600
GOLD
05-02-2015 27300
27200
27100
27000
26900
26800
26700
26600
26500
LEAD
31-12-2014 123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
NATURAL GAS 26-12-2014 223
221
219
217
215
213
211
209
207
NICKEL
995
980
965
950
930
910
890
870
31-12-2014 1015
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31-12-2014 131
129
127
125
123
121
119
117
115
COPPER
27-02-2015 421
418
415
412
409
406
403
400
396
CRUDE OIL
27-02-2015 3820
3780
3740
3700
3660
3620
3580
3540
3500
GOLD
05-02-2015 27800
27600
27400
27200
27000
26800
26600
26400 26200
LEAD
31-12-2014 127
125
123
121
119
117
115
113
111
NATURAL GAS
26-12-2014 228
224
220
216
212
208
204
200
196
NICKEL
31-12-2014 1070
1020
980
940
900
860
820
780
740
SILVER
05-03-2015 38100
37800
37500
37200
36900
36600
36300
36000 35700
ZINC
31-12-2014 152
149
147
145
143
141
139
137
135
� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a strong signal that it was on track to raise interest rates sometime next year, altering a pledge to keep rates near zero for a "considerable time" in a show of confidence in the U.S. economy. Russia's rouble strengthened sharply on Wednesday after dramatic falls on the previous two days as the government pressured exporters not to hoard foreign-currency earnings and the central bank announced new measures to support financial stability. Euro stat said consumer prices in the 18 countries sharing the euro fell 0.2 percent month-on-month in November for a 0.3 percent year-on-year rise, as expected by markets. Crude inventories fell by 847,000 barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a 2.4- million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 207,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 340,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed. Gasoline stocks rose by 5.3 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8-million-barrel increase. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a positive note and strengthened 0.2 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of speculation that US Federal Reserve policy makers will remove their pledge to keep borrowing costs low for a considerable period in their statement. However, upside in the DX was capped due to upbeat market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 89.62 and closed at 89.48 on Thursday.
PRECIOUS METALS Silver climbed 0.8 percent to $15.79 an ounce. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a strong signal that it was on track to raise interest rates sometime next year, altering a pledge to keep rates near zero for a "considerable time" in a show of confidence in the U.S. economy. Closing out a two-day meeting against a backdrop of solid domestic growth but trouble overseas, the U.S. central bank said it would take a "patient" approach in deciding when to bump borrowing costs higher. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a news conference that "patient" meant the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings," meaning April of next year at the earliest. Gold turned lower on Wednesday, after briefly climbing above $1,200 per ounce following the U.S. Federal Reserve's signal that it remained on track to raise interest rates in 2015. The Fed offered a strong message that it was on track to raise interest rates sometime next year,
altering a pledge to keep them near zero for a "considerable time" in a show of confidence in the U.S. economy. Investors were also eyeing Russia after the rouble plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday despite a hefty interest rate hike. Russia's financial crisis initially weighed on stocks on Wednesday, but European shares staged a late recovery following the bounce higher in energy and as new signs of economic stimulus measures from the European Central Bank lifted shares. Demand for physical gold in Asia was lackluster overnight as traders awaited direction from the Fed, precious metals house MKS said in a note. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, which last week posted their biggest weekly rise since mid-July, saw a second consecutive daily outflow on Tuesday, of 1.8 tonnes.
BASE METAL Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note yesterday as the outlook in top metals consumer China remained gloomy following house price data. In addition, mixed economic data from the US dragged prices lower. However, upbeat market sentiments after an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy and a promise to be patient in raising rates by the Federal Reserve restricted sharp fall. In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded lower in line with trend in the international markets. Copper steadied on Wednesday on oil prices moving up from recent 5-1/2-year lows and a relief rally in global equities, but the metal's gains were expected to be short-lived given mounting evidence of rising supply. Global equities stabilised from earlier falls as the oil price rebounded and as fears over a fullblown currency crisis in Russia subsided. Still copper was vulnerable, with the dollar up versus a currency basket on expectations that the Federal Reserve would signal rate hikes were on track in its policy statement later this session. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced meals costlier for European and other non-U.S. investors. Also a concern for copper was rising supply, with the latest data from China showing copper output rose 3.1 percent in November from the previous month, hitting a record for the fourth straight month. Aluminum remains vulnerable to the plunge in the rouble, which could entice Russian producers to lift production of the metal, which is sold in dollars, or it could lead to lower sales in Russia, prompting producers to increase exports. Russia is the world's secondbiggest aluminum producer
ENERGY U.S. natural gas futures on Wednesday ended up 2.3 percent on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks. Weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states moved from well above normal to slightly above normal levels for the next two weeks, boosting the likelihood of
increased demand for gas for heating. The models projected heating degree days would total 436 over the next two weeks, up from the 416 forecast on Tuesday. That is still below the 444 norm for this time of year, according to Thomson Reuters Analytic. With little cold so far this season, production remained near record levels because gas was not trapped in frozen wells and new pipelines have entered service to move more of the fuel out of the ground. Production forecasts eased to 73.1 billion cubic feet per day from 73.3 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. That compares with 66.1 bcfd a year ago and a 30-day moving average of 71.9 bcfd. Production peaked at 73.4 bcfd on Dec. 8. World oil prices jumped as much as 6 percent on Wednesday before closing off their peaks as weeks of nearly non-stop selling abruptly halted, and traders said failure to break below key chart support levels meant a long rout may be running out. The surge came after weekly oil data showed a big build in crude stockpiles at Cushing. When prices failed to make a new low following the bearish data, speculators raced to buy up contracts or take profits on short positions, setting off a frenzy of buying that took on its own momentum. The sudden spike on Wednesday caught traders and analysts by surprise, and many speculated on causes ranging from the surge in the value of the oversold Russian rouble to the U.S. decision to resume diplomatic relations with Cuba. The biggest slide in oil prices since the 2008 financial crisis had accelerated after OPEC met in November, when Gulf producers resisted calls to curb output. The plunge has left market-watchers seeking a bottom, and unable to find one. The latest spike has given buyers looking for a bottom a potential point at which to purchase crude. It remains to be seen whether the intraday rally biggest in 2-1/2 months is a dead-cat bounce or a definitive turning point after a six-month slide that has halved prices. With OPEC ministers saying this week they are in no hurry to cut output, many see new lows ahead, although the steep drop has opened up some short-term opportunities for chart-based traders.
LME INVENTORIES LME Inventories
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Nickel
Current Stock
172200
219825
685275
4261750
406854
Change
-475
0
-2175
-10350
1680
% Change
-0.28%
0.00%
-0.32%
-0.24%
0.41%
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CHANA NCDEX Chana Jan. futures traded on a positive note (2.05% higher) on account of lower arrivals due to rain noticed in northern part of India. Yesterday prices have touched the high of 3194 levels. According to latest estimates of coverage under Rabi pulses has reached 107.85 lakh hectares as on December 5, 2014 which is -11.56% lower as compared to previous year. Chana has been sown over 69.43 lakh hectares as on December 05, 2014 which is -17.24% lower than the area sown during the same period previous year. Chickpea/Chana production has been revised down in Australia to 435 thousand tonnes in the latest production estimates by the Australian Agricultural Department released on December 02, 2014. The production shall be -31.17% lower year on year while estimate has been revised down by around 6% from the earlier crop production estimate during September 2014. According to the USDA, USA pulses production up by 17% to 28685 (in ‘000 cwt) in 2014 from 24576 (‘000 cwt) in 2013.
According to the ministry of Agriculture, the area under sowing of Gram is at 71.51 lakh hectares this year while the last year’s figure was 85.75 lakh hectares.
Area coverage under Total Pulses is at 111.13 lakh hectares while the last year’s sowing are coverage was 124.78 lakh hectares. Official weekly data will be released tomorrow.
As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses isForecast to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.
SOYABEAN
Indian Soy complex prices closed mixed yesterday whereas RM Seed prices ended sharply higher yesterday on firm overseas prices amid fears of lower crop. Rupee weakness prevented bigger losses.
Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT.
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.82 million MT.
NCDEX Soybean Jan futures traded on a negative note (0.84% down) taking cues from international market. .Weakness in CBOT soybeans and lower Malaysian palm oil remained negative factors for the beans and the seed. The Malaysian palm oil extended losses Tuesday.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since 2006/07. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels.
REFI. SOYA Ref soy oil Jan futures traded on a mixed note (0.19% lower) taking cues from negative international market sentiments however depreciation in USDINR supported the prices. CPO at BMD traded lower on Tuesday due to bearish international soybean complex market fundamentals, losses in the crude oil prices and uncertain demand prospects for palm oil. As per the latest government notification, Indian Government has revised the tariff value for crude palm oil to US $699, RBD palm oil to US $723, Crude and refined palmolein to 731, 734 (US dollar per metric tons) respectively. Moreover, USD 849 per tons sets as a new base import price for crude soybean oil. Tariff value is the base price at which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing Malaysian palm oil products exports for Dec. 1-15 rose 2.1 percent to 618,134 tons from 605,624 tons shipped during Nov. 1-15 - cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance. Indian buyers imported 140,972 tons of palm oil products from Malaysia during fortnight of Dec. v/s 106,000 tons same period last month(Source – Agriwatch.com).
•
Soy meal exports from India rose to 110,806 MT in November from 29,071 MT in October. India's oil meal exports in November 2014 were 157K MT vs. 238K MT in previous month.
•
Veg. oil imports in November 2014 were at 1.149 million MT vs. 0.92 million MT in Nov 2013
RM SEED
Mustard seed Jan futures traded on a mixed note (0.35% higher) due to short covering and lower levels demand on expectation of lower acreage this year. All India arrivals of RM seed remained flat at 1.15 lakh bags compared to Monday’s level. Besides, the seed arrivals of Rajasthan too remained steady at 65,000 bags compared to Monday’s level. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the United States.
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