Commodity report by ways2capital 24 nov 2014

Page 1

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-2014

603

601

599

597

595

593

591

589

587

SYBEANIDR

19-12-2014

3425

3405

3390

3375

3360

3340

3320

3305

3285

RMSEED

19-12-2014

3940

3925

3905

3890

3860

3840

3820

3805

3790

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-2014

12750

12650

12550

12450

12350 12200 12100 12000

11900

DHANIYA

19-12-2014

13500

13400

13300

13200

13100 13000 12900 12800

12700

CASTORSEED

19-12-2014

4930

4910

4890

4870

4850

4830

4810

4790

4770

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-2014

616

612

608

604

600

596

592

589

585

SYBEANIDR

19-12-2014

3540

3500

3460

3420

3390

3350

3310

3290

3260

RMSEED

19-12-2014

3990

3960

3930

3900

3885

3855

3825

3785

3760

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-2014

13200

12900

12750

12450

12100 11800 11650 11300

10900

DHANIYA

19-12-2014

14200

13800

13400

13000

12600 12200 11800 11400

11000

CASTORSEED

19-12-2014

5050

5020

4990

4960

4930

4810

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4900

4870

4840

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM 28-11-2014

132

131

130

129

128

127

126

125

124

423

421

419

416

414

411

409

407

405

19-11-2014 4850

4830

4810

4790

4770

4745

4730

4705

4680

GOLD

05-12-2014 26900 26800 26700

26600

26500

26400

26300 26200 26100

LEAD

28-11-2014

131

130

129

128

127

126

125

124

123

NATURAL GAS 24-11-2014

266

264

262

260

258

255

253

251

249

NICKEL

28-11-2014 1110

1080

1060

1040

1020

990

970

950

930

SILVER

05-12-2014 36900 36700 36500

36300

36000

35700

140

139

COPPER CRUDE OIL

ZINC

28-11-2014

28-11-2014

145

143

142

141

35400 35100 34900 138

137

136

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-11-2014

138

136

134

132

130

127

125

123

121

COPPER

28-11-2014

450

445

440

435

430

425

420

415

410

CRUDE OIL

19-11-2014 5010 4970

4930

4890

4850

4810

4770

4730

4690

GOLD

05-12-2014 27800 27500 27200

26900

26700

26350

26100 25900

25600

LEAD

28-11-2014

135

133

131

129

126

124

122

120

118

NATURAL GAS 24-11-2014

270

266

264

260

257

253

249

246

243

28-11-2014 1160 1120

1080

1040

1000

960

920

880

840

NICKEL

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SILVER ZINC

05-12-2014 37500 37100 36800 28-11-2014 151

149

147

36400

36000

35600

145

143

141

35200 34800 139

137

34400 135

� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS

The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday reflected a complex discussion at the U.S. central bank. Staff cut their estimates for near-term U.S. economic growth, and Fed policymakers wrestled with the pros and cons of acknowledging market turbulence and overseas developments in their statement.

1.

2. A solid core of officials said the Fed needed to remain vigilant that public and market expectations about inflation could shift down - a worrisome development that might increase the risk of a damaging period of stagnation or outright declines in wages and prices. The soft pace of inflation has become a central concern at the Fed and other major central banks. 3. U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in October, but a jump in permits to near a 6-1/2-year high suggested the housing market was steadily regaining strength. 4. The head of the Bank of Japan warned on Wednesday that the government is solely responsible for maintaining trust in the country's finances, in a thinly veiled show of discontent over premier Shinzo Abe's decision to postpone a sales tax increase. 5. BoE Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's Nov. 5-6 meeting showed its members voted 7-2 for the fourth month in a row to maintain rates at their record low 0.5 percent, where they have been since early 2009 when the financial crisis was raging.

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PRECIOUS METALS Silver edged down 0.2 percent at $16.12 an ounce. GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday that silver demand would fall 7 percent in 2014 because of a slower pace of buying by jewelers and industrial fabricators. Demand for silver will post a 7 percent decline in 2014 because of a slower pace of buying by jewelers and industrial fabricators in the first three quarters of the year, metals consultant Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Tuesday. Harmonized European sales tax rates that started in January have driven up retail silver investment product prices, reducing demand on the continent, the Thomson Reuters unit said in an interim market review. Silver industrial demand is forecast to drop 1.8 percent as the electronics sector keeps shifting to cheaper metals. Jewelry consumption should fall 4.4 percent because retailers are pushing more gold products to take advantage of lower bullion prices, GFMS said. Gold fell more than 1 percent in choppy trade on Wednesday after a poll showed weaker support among Swiss voters for a referendum that would force the central bank to boost its gold reserves. Bullion also came under pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's late October policy meeting showed policymakers were concerned about weakening inflation pressure, dampening the metal's appeal as a hedge. The metal's price slid as much as 1.8 percent after the opinion poll showed support for the Swiss gold proposal slipped to 38 percent from 44 percent in October, dashing hopes that the Swiss National Bank needed to buy gold in the open market.

BASE METAL Copper rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of physical supply tightness and hopes for another wave of stimulus in Japan and Europe. Longer term however, the market is still expected to move into surplus next year, with analysts polled by Reuters in October pegging the excess supply versus demand at 350,000 tonnes next year. News of a snap election and a delayed tax increase in Japan bolstered hopes for new stimulus measures, while the European Central Bank president said it was ready for more action if current efforts do not speed up the euro zone recovery. Nickel was the biggest LME mover, closing 3.2 percent higher at $16,145, having earlier hit its highest level in a month at $16,300, as some investors bet on shortages developing next year.

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ENERGY Oil prices fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, as early gains on talk of a possible OPEC output cut vanished after the Federal Reserve released minutes of last month's policy meeting revealing worries that U.S. inflation could remain below target for "quite some time." The Fed minutes showed central bankers concerned about the economy's strength but reluctant to issue a statement reflecting too much pessimism. OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will meet in Vienna to consider adjusting its output target of 30 million bpd. Fears of an oil glut and a 30 percent drop in Brent prices since June has made a few producers clamor for sharp output cuts. But OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia has not said if it will support that. U.S. crude stockpiles rose 2.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 14, compared with forecasts of a 800,000-barrel draw, as imports rose to meet demand from refineries hiking runs after seasonal maintenance, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. Despite the unexpectedly large build, oil prices rose by midday as investors focused on the OPEC meeting. Unseasonably cold weather across America, and a 2-million barrel draw in distillate supplies last week, also supported prices of U.S. heating oil before late profit-taking in that market. U.S. natural gas futures ended up 3 percent on Wednesday on forecasts that colder-than-normal weather will continue through at least early December, keeping heating demand high. Earlier Wednesday, front-month prices were up over 6 percent, continuing the recent trend of big price swings seen over the past few weeks due primarily to changes in how much cold is expected in the 15-day weather forecast. The latest U.S. weather models showed arctic weather would continue over the next two weeks in the lower 48 states, with 377 heating degree days, down a bit from 385 forecast on Tuesday. But that is still well over normal HDDs of 330 for this time of year, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. Analysts estimated utilities withdrew 12 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, the first draw of the heating season. That compares with a 40-bcf build the previous week, a draw of 36 bcf in the same week last year, and a five-year average draw of 10 bcf.

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LME INVENTORIES DATA Metal

Date: 21-11-2014 Friday

Aluminium

-8750

Copper

-675

Lead

-100

Nickel

+1446

Tin

-65

Zinc

-2000

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

JEERA As expected yesterday Jeera Dec. futures traded on a mixed to positive note 0.12% higher on lower level demand due to good exports enquirer. Arrivals Stood at 12,000 bags as compared to 11000 bags previous day. Sowing of the spice has commenced both in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while

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about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Exports of Jeera between Apr-July 2014 stood at 58,000 tn, up 40% as against 43,898 tn between Apr-July 2013. (Source: Spices Board)

SOYABEAN Weakness in International markets prevented any strong recovery for Soybean in the Futures markets even as overall Spot market sentiments remained firm. Improved International production forecasts had been keeping sentiments weak there. Traders expect downtrend to be limited how-ever as domestic demand is expected to improve in coming weeks for the good quality produce. Soybeans rebounded from the lowest price in more than a week after a government report showed increasing demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s top grower.U.S. Oil seed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month on increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1 percent above the October forecast. U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20 million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean meal exports.

REFI. SOYA Moderate recovery was noted for Ref Soy Oil as prices found some strong support at these lower levels. Short term trend likely to remain volatile as prices continued to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600 level. India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68 million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors' Association (SEA). India’s 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in 2012/14 season. Palm oil purchases were slightly lower at

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7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last season. Sunflower oil imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13. Reports on apprehensions of India considering raising import taxes on crude and refined vegetable oils to protect local farmers and the refin-ing industry kept trend firm in Indian markets .In order to improve realizations for farmers and to bring in transparency in soybean selling, the Madhya Pradesh government has introduced sample-based auction for the commodity. The pilot project will be implement-ed at Ujjain, one of the biggest mandis (wholesale agricultural markets) in Madhya Pradesh, and once the new system is found to be successful, it will be extended to 10 other mandis. The sample-based auction will not only save post-harvest losses, but also encourage farmers to produce fair average quality commodities that ensure better return on their yield. Madhya Pradesh has been the biggest producer of soybean.

RM SEED No strong sentiments emerged for RMSeed as markets recovered moderately after the recent fall. A fall in other Oil complex kept pressurizing RMSeed rates also. Overall sentiments remained firm however as reports of lower sowing area, lower stocks in warehouses and high demand from stockists are likely to keep supporting the prices in the near term. Pick up in demand is expected in coming weeks that could check the falling market trend. Global rapeseed production is raised to 70.7 million tons on a record EU harvest. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects.Global sun flower seed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Kazakhstan As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 30thOct 2014 was 9.07 lakh ha vs 11.88 lakh ha in 2013-14. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature. Mustard area coverage in All over India is 18.64 lakh Ha during Rabi 2014-15 and 14.08 lakh ha in 2013-14, area coverage during Rabi 2014-15 is higher by 4.56 lakh ha com-pared to corresponding period of Rabi 2013-14

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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