Commodity report ways2capital 12 nov 2014

Page 1

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-14

605

603

601

699

697

695

693

691

689

SYBEANIDR

19-12-14

3430

3415

3400

3385

3370

3355

3340

3320

3305

RMSEED

19-12-14

3850

3835

3820

3805

3790

3765

3750

3730

3715

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-14

12300

12250 12200

12150

12100 12050 12000 11950 11900

DHANIYA

19-12-14

12700

12600 12500

12400

12300 12200 12000 11900 11800

CASTORSEED

19-12-14

4850

4835

4820

4805

4780

4765

4750

4720

4705

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-14

600

597

593

589

585

582

579

576

572

SYBEANIDR

19-12-14

3415

3385

3365

3340

3310

3280

3250

3220

3190

RMSEED

19-12-14

3880

3850

3820

3795

3770

3740

3720

3685

3660

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-14

12800

12600 12400

12200

12000 11800 11600 11400 11200

DHANIYA

19-12-14

13000

12800 12600

12400

12200 12000 11800 11600 11400

CASTORSEED

19-12-14

4900

4870

4820

4790

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4850

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4760

4730

4700

4690

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-NOV-14 130

129

127

125

123

121

118

116

114

COPPER

28-NOV-14 421

418

415

412

409

406

403

400

397

CRUDE OIL

19-NOV-14 4970

4950

4930

4910

4890

4870

4850

4830

4810

GOLD

5-DEC-14

26100

26000

25900

25800

25700

25600

25500

25400

LEAD

28-NOV-14 130

128

126

124

122

120

118

116

14

NATURAL GAS 24-NOV-14 282

280

278

277

274

271

269

267

265

NICKEL

940

920

900

890

870

850

830

810

26200

28-NOV-14 960

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-NOV-14 132

129

126

123

120

117

114

111

109

COPPER

28-NOV-14 430

425

420

415

410

405

400

395

390

CRUDE OIL

19-NOV-14 5000

4970

4950

4925

4900

4870

4840

4810

4790

GOLD

5-DEC-14

26300

26100

25900

25700

25500

25300

25100 24890

LEAD

28-NOV-14 132

129

126

123

121

119

117

114

111

NATURAL GAS

24-NOV-14 285

281

278

275

271

268

265

263

260

NICKEL

28-NOV-14 1020

990

960

930

900

870

840

810

790

SILVER

5-DEC-14

35600

35200

34900

34500

34100

33800

33500 33100

ZINC

28-NOV-14 145

142

140

138

136

133

131

129

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26500

36000

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127

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� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS U.S. non-farm payrolls grew at a fairly brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists' forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent. Both the International Monetary Fund and the United States encouraged the ECB and the BoJ toward greater monetary stimulus during a conference of central bankers in Paris on Friday. Libya hopes to reopen the southern El Sharara oilfield "very soon" but first needs to solve a conflict between local tribes, an oil official said on Thursday. Gunmen stormed the field and looted equipment at the 340,000 barrels a day field, shutting down production, oil officials said on Wednesday. Details are unclear but pictures on social media showed damaged cars at the field located deep in the south where rival tribes have been fighting for weeks.

PRECIOUS METALS Silver climbed 1.8 percent to $15.65 an ounce after hitting the lowest since February 2010 at $15.03. Silver has been the worst-performing precious metal this week, down around 3 percent. The dollar fell on Friday after a solid but below-expectation October U.S. jobs report as investors took profits on the greenback's months-long rally that has taken it to multi-year highs in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy next year. U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at a fairly brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists' forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent. Gold rose 2.6 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, as a retreat in the U.S. dollar and heavy short-covering lifted bullion from a 4-1/2-year low. The metal notched a third straight week of losses, however, having dropped to its lowest since April 2010 at $1,131.85 an ounce earlier on Friday. The dollar slipped after a solid but belowexpectation October U.S. jobs report as investors took profits on the greenback's months-long rally, which has seen it reach multi-year highs in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy next year. Gold had been under pressure for a week from a rising dollar, which has benefited from expectations the Federal Reserve will move before other central banks to tighten monetary policy. Despite coming in below expectations, the U.S. payrolls report showed the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, suggesting the economy remains on a strengthening path.

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BASE METAL Base metals on the LME traded on a mixed note last week after comments by the European Central Bank indicating readiness to use additional measures to shore up the economy. Ultraloose monetary policy adopted by central banks around the world in the past few years has drawn investors to commodities including the base metals pack as an alternative to interestbearing assets. In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed taking cues from trend in the international markets Copper prices rose on Friday as a mixed U.S. payrolls report offered investors relief that the world's largest economy had not lost steam, while aluminium extended losses as producers and trade houses sold. Data showed U.S. job growth increased at a fairly brisk clip in October and the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, underscoring the economy's resilience in the face of slowing global demand. U.S. crude climbed less than a dollar on Friday but finished down more than 2 percent for the week, marking the first time the benchmark has fallen for six straight weeks since December 1998. The Friday rally was driven in part by geopolitical tremors in Ukraine and the dollar backing off of its four-year high. The dollar helped drive both the daily gains and the weekly losses, as Friday it retreated from its strongest level against a basket of foreign currencies in over four years. A strong dollar stunts the price of dollar-denominated oil benchmarks. The Ukrainian military accused Russia of sending 32 tanks and truckloads of troops across the border, which if true would signal an end to the lull in violence between the two countries. Renewed fighting in the region could disrupt oil flows, throttle supply, and drive worldwide prices up. However, some traders are skeptical that another flaring of violence in the region could affect supply and prices. U.S. natural gas ended a notch higher on Friday to extend its rally to a ninth day, and traders expected more gains in the coming week if heating demand rises in accordance with forecasts for harshly cold weather. Indications that a polar vortex could freeze the U.S. Midwest by next week gave market bulls the longest winning streak in natural gas in eight years. Over the next two weeks, U.S. weather models show lower-than-normal temperatures, with 354 heating degree days, up from the 320 forecast on Thursday. Normal HDDs for this time of year are 261, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics.

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� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS JEERA Higher arrivals continued to pres-surize the rates for Jeera even as export demand improved in mandis. Satisfactory crop sowing progress affected the sentiments adversely even further. The coming week trend is likely to remain volatile as improved export demand queries amidst higher arrivals could keep prices volatile. The sowing progress in coming weeks would be important and determine the near term trend for the commodity. An expected pick up in sowing area could prevent too strong recovery for the commodity. Rains seen few weeks back in Gujarat and Rajasthan have improved moisture content of the soil and this can have a beneficial impact on the sowing of new crop that has started. Weather in grow-ing areas thus remain critical in the near term. Effect of Dollar vs Re would be important in medium term when exports pick up. But till that hap-pens some more dips not ruled out Good quality arrivals have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary export-er for this commodity as of now. Jeera production in India is ex-pected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each in 2014, from 4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favourable weather conditions. As per Spices Board of India statis-tics, India exported 96,500 tonne of cumin seed or Jeera during April-December 2013, up from 50,944 tonne exported in similar period, previous year SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Ref Soy Oil bounced back moderately after the recent fall in rates as slight firmness in International markets pulled prices up. Markets are likely to trade with high volatility as demand remains firm in mandis. Reports on apprehensions of India considering raising import taxes on crude and refined vegetable oils to protect local farmers and the refining industry kept trend firm in Indian markets In order to improve realizations for farmers and to bring in transparency in soybean selling, the Web: www.ways2capital.com

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Madhya Pradesh government has introduced sample-based auction for the commodity. The pilot project will be implemented at Ujjain, one of the biggest mandis (wholesale agricul-tural markets) in Madhya Pradesh, and once the new system is found to be successful, it will be extended to 10 other mandis. The sample-based auction will not only save post-harvest losses, but also encourage farmers to produce fair average quality commodities that ensure better return on their yield. Madhya Pradesh has been the biggest producer of soybean. Current stock of edible oils as on 1st Oct., 2014 at various ports is esti-mated at 715,000 tons (CPO 350,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 85,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 150,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 120,000 tons and 10,000 tons of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil and about 1,000,000 tons in pipelines. Total stock, both at ports and in pipelines decreased to 1,715,000 tons from 1,820,000 tons in previous months. (SEA Of India) Brazil, the world’s the biggest soy-bean exporter, may see “crucial rainfall” this week in central and southeastern areas that have experienced dryness, which will encourage farmers to accelerate planting, QT Weather said in a report yesterday. The country’s output may climb to a record 94 million metric tons in 2014-2015, the USDA predicts. Planting started this month and will run until December. Weakness in International markets amid slowing down of demand in domestic market kept trend weak for Soybean as markets fell after the recent rise in prices Arrivals of better quality crop amid improved demand in mandis are likely to keep overall sentiments moderately firm. Lower production expectations and stockists demand are also expected to support prices. However with International markets showing some corrections over last 2 days, some more corrections in rates are not ruled out in the short term.

RM SEED Weakness in other Oil complex had a bearish impact on RMSeed prices as demand got adversely affected in the mandis at these higher levels. Improved sowing report from Rajasthan kept uptrend limited. An expected rise in sowing area for new crop is preventing any strong rise in rates. Farmers are interested in sowing of RMseed as they are reportedly getting higher price Indian farmers have been sown 18.64 lakh hectares of mustard seed (2014-15 crop year) as on 30 Oct. 2014, which was 4.56 lakh ha. higher compared to the last year same period. State wise details - in Rajasthan has been sown in 9.07 (11.88) lakh hectares, in MP sowing reached at 3.80 (0.00) lakh hectares and in UP sowing reached to 4.91 (0.00) lakh hectares. As per first

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Advance Estimates for 2014-15 released by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, total production of kharif Oilseeds is expected to decline to 19.66 million tons, down 2.75 million tons from 2013-14 Kharif season. As per Solvent Extractors’ Associa-tion of India (SEA) data bank, the imports of Rape oil are steadily on the rise and have significantly increased by more than 11 times from 7,943 MT to 103,003 MT. Though oilmeal exports dipped for the third consecutive month due to rise in soybean prices, but the rapeseed meal has increased 53 per cent to 408,410 tonnes from 267,461 tonnes in last four months

CHANA Profit booking at higher levels brought some dips to the rising rates for Chana. Rates had shot up a lot last few days. But high demand from stockists amid falling stocks, a rise in MSP, reports of Govt purchase amid low arrivals in mandis all these factors are likely to support the prices. Raising the MSP from Rs 3100/Q to Rs 3175/Q added support to the prices. Rise in demand from millers and Govt agencies kept trend firm. Fall in Canada crop production is also affecting the prices as imports turn costlier. Continuous fall in rates over last few months has reportedly adversely affected the sowing. Expectations of improved crop sowing in states of MP, UP and Rajasthan could prevent strong uptrend even as prices are consid-ered to be on the lower side. How-ever lower sowing reports are keeping prices up as of now The domestic demand has risen in the mandis and breaking the psychological resistance levels of 3000 could enable prices to recover further in coming weeks. Apart from these factors, repeated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for essential Food items are also keeping the uptrend limited. As per latest reports of sowing of Rabi Pulses crops as on 24th October, it is reported that pulses has been sown in 3.31 lakh ha vs 3.78 lakh ha same time last year. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14. Decline in area under Tur and Moong has also affected production of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes as against their production of 6.02 million tonnes during Kharif 2013-14. Tur production estimated at 2.74 million tonnes and Urad at 1.15 million tonnes

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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