Commodity report ways2capital 6 june 2016

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2016

109.15

107.40

105.65

104.50

103.90

102.75

102.15

100.40

98.65

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

337.80

329.65

321.55

317.60

313.50

309.50

305.40

297.25

289.20

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3522

3439

3356

3304

3273

3221

3190

3107

3024

GOLD

05 AUG 2016

31006

30407

29808

29597

29209

28998

28610

28011

27412

LEAD

30 JUN 2016

123.25

120.90

118.55

117.20

116.20

114.90

113.85

111.50

109.15

NATURAL GAS

27 JUN 2016

177.70

172.70

167.70

164.80

162.70

159.80

157.70

152.70

147.70

NICKEL

30 JUN 2016

607.70

596.70

585.60

578.90

574.60

567.90

563.90

552.60

541.60

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

41300

40520

39740

39409

38960

38629

38180

37400

36620

ZINC

30 JUN 2016

142.50

139.55

136.60

135.15

133.70

132.20

130.70

127.75

124.80

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2016

113.85

110.65

107.50

105.45

104.35

102.30

101.20

98.10

94.90

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

341.90

332.25

322.60

318.10

312.95

308.45

303.30

293.65

284

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3936

3727

3518

3385

3309

3176

3100

2891

2682

GOLD

05 AUG 2016

31489

30709

29929

29658

29149

28878

28369

27589

26809

LEAD

30 JUN 2016

129.30

124.70

120.10

118

115.50

113.40

110.90

106.30

101.70

NATURAL GAS

27 JUN 2016

218.20

198

177.80

169.90

157.60

149.70

137.40

117.20

97

NICKEL

30 JUN 2016

. 618.30

603.30

588.30

580.20

573.30

565.20

558.30

543.30

528.30

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

41943

40922

39901

39490

38880

38469

37859

36838

35817

ZINC

30 JUN 2016

155.70

147.80

139.90

136.80

132

128.90

124.10

116.20

108.30

Monday, 30 May 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD AUG ABOVE 29461 TGT 29663 SL 29258 SELL CRUDEOIL JUN BELOW 3228 TGT 3165 SL 3291

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL CRUDEOIL JUN BELOW 3240 TGT 3180 SL 3311 - SL SELL ZINC JUN BELOW 125.95 TGT 123.90 SL 128.05 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28 JUN 2016

68.20

67.95

67.75

97.65

67.55

97.45

97.30

67.10

66.90

EURINR

28 JUN 2016

75.80

75.65

75.50

75.45

75.35

75.30

75.20

75.05

74.90

GBPINR

28 JUN 2016

98.55

98.20

97.80

97.60

97.40

97.20

97.05

96.65

96.25

JPYINR

28 JUN 2016

62.75

62.50

62.25

62.15

62

61.90

61.75

61.50

61.25

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28 JUN 2016

68.2 0

67.95

67.75

97.65

67.55

97.45

97.30

67.10

66.90

EURINR

28 JUN 2016

75.8 0

75.65

75.50

75.45

75.35

75.30

75.20

75.05

74.90

GBPINR

28 JUN 2016

98.20

97.80

97.60

97.40

97.20

97.05

96.65

96.25

62.50

62.25

62.15

62

61.90

61.75

61.50

61.25

JPYINR

28 JUN 2016

98.5 5 62.7 5

WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL USDINR JUN BELOW 67 TGT 66 SL 68.01 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY JPYINR JUN ABOVE 61.30 TGT 61.70 SL 60.88 - TGT ACHEIVED SELL GBPINR JUN BELOW 98.24 TGT 97.70 SL 98.75 - TGT ACHEIVED


✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

679

673

667

663

661

657

655

649

643

SYBEANIDR

20 JUL 2016

4081

4029

3977

3953

3925

3901

3873

3821

3769

RMSEED

20 JUL 2016

4585

4545

4505

4484

4465

444

4425

4385

4345

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2016

16600

16400

16205

16115

16000 159115 15805

15605

15405

CHANA

20 JUL 2016

6855

6649

6443

6374

6237

6168

6031

5825

5619

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

703

688

673

666

658

651

643

628

613

SYBEANIDR

20 JUL 2016

4416

4256

4096

4012

3936

3852

3776

3616

3456

RMSEED

20 JUL 2016

4740

4652

4564

4514

4476

4426

4388

4300

4212

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2016

18725

17875

17025

16525

16175

15675

15325

14475

13625

CHANA

20 JUL 2016

7143

6829

6515

6410

6201

6096

5887

5573

5259

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL SOYABEAN JUL BELOW 3898 TGT 3835 SL 3961 SELL RM SEED JUL BELOW 4459 TGT 4398 SL 4521

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL BUY DHANIYA JUN ABOVE 6917 TGT 7122 SL 6713 - MADE HIGH OF 7000


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS GLOBAL UPDATE  US Dollar Index made a weekly low of 96.86 and closed at 94.03 on Friday.  The American currency declined by more than 1 percent in the last week owing to a number of factors. ADP report showed addition of 173K jobs to private payrolls. However, the NFP report showed additions of only 38K jobs. This major decline in NFP was due to an expected slowdown in hiring at big chain stores and the temporary impact of the Verizon strike.Moreover, official statement made by Japan’s PM with respect delay in sales tax hike led to strength in Japanese Yen against the DX. All the above factors acted as a negative factor for the American currency  OPEC failed to agree a clear oil-output strategy on Thursday as Iran insisted on steeply raising its own production, though Tehran's arch-rival Saudi Arabia promised not to flood the market and sought to mend fences within the organisation. Tensions between the Sunni-led kingdom and the Shi'ite Islamic Republic had blighted several previous OPEC meetings, including in December 2015 when the group fell short of agreeing a formal output target for the first time in years.  The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, holding them at record lows as it prints money to lift the economy and raise inflation. The bank added that it will start buying corporate bonds on June 8.the ECB kept its rate on bank overnight deposits, now seen as its primary interest rate tool, at –0.40 per cent  The U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in more than 5-1/2-years in May as manufacturing and construction employment fell sharply, which could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. New orders for U.S. factory goods recorded their biggest increase in six months in April, boosted by demand for transportation equipment, while business spending on capital goods was not as weak as initially thought

✍ BULLION Gold surged more than 2 percent and was on track for its biggest one day jump in seven weeks on Friday after U.S. payrolls data fell well short of forecasts, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on interest rates. The non-farm payrolls number released last week showed that the growth in the labor market is not as firm as it is expected. The European Central Bank said it made only marginal upward adjustments to its inflation projections, while investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. labor data. The bank kept interest rates unchanged and ECB President Mario Draghi said inflation would likely remain very low or negative in the next few months. Gold has taken a beating after the latest Fed meeting minutes released in May, and comments from key central bank officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, boosted expectations of an imminent rate rise. U.S. private employers increased hiring in May and new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, further boosting the economic outlook for the second quarter. Another report on Thursday showed planned layoffs by U.S.-based employers fell 53 percent to a five-month low last month. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products fell to the lowest in four years, while silver sales dropped to a nine-month low as consumers awaited a further fall in prices on expectations of an earlier-than-expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike.


✍ENERGY Oil prices tumbled more than 1 percent on Friday, extending losses after weekly industry data showed U.S. drillers added rigs for only the second time this year.The latest draw down in U.S. crude stockpiles offset OPEC's failure to set a ceiling for its output. Saudi's new Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih promised the kingdom would not flood the market with extra oil. His remarks suggested a softening of Riyadh's previous stance, when it rigorously pumped to defend its share of a crude market oversupplied by around 1.5-2.0 million barrels per day. Iran maintained its right to steeply raise crude exports to pre-sanction levels, although Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he didn't think others in OPEC would ramp up supply. Prices briefly slipped further after settlement when an industry group said its weekly data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories and Iran's oil minister called for OPEC to adopt the radical idea of production quotas for individual member countries instead of for the group as a whole. After surging Natural Gas nearly 23 percent over the past four days, including last week's front-month roll from the lower June to the higher July contract, gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.7 cents to settle at $2.398 per million British thermal units. Despite recent gains, analysts said prices were likely to remain relatively low this year after a warm winter left stockpiles at record highs. To avoid filling storage caverns to capacity, producers are likely to cut output and power generators to burn more gas instead of coal, they noted. In early estimates, analysts forecast utilities added just 73 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ending June 3 as power generators used record gas for this time of year, taking advantage of the low fuel costs to meet higher-than-normal levels of air conditioning demand.

✍BASE METAL Metals were boosted by data showing the U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in more than than 51/2 years in May, pointing to labour market weakness that could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Aluminium traded higher as report written by the People's Bank of China monetary policy analysis team cited the central bank will keep policy slightly loose to support the economy, which still faces downward pressure. base metals traded higher except Aluminium in line with international trends.However, non event at various meetings through the week without any additional stimulus announcements hurt metals. European Central Bank maintained status quo and predicted consumer price growth would remain below target through 2018. Further, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held back a widely expected fiscal stimulus package. Also, OPEC refrained from changing its oil output policy on Thursday after members failed to agree on a new production ceiling. Zinc prices surged to $2004/tonne, the highest in 10 months as Netlong positions in LME futures are close to an 11-month high seen in May. Besides, ILZSG estimated that total zinc inventory, including exchangeregistered tonnage, metal held by China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) and "commercial stocks" held by producers, consumers and merchants, has declined from a peak of 2.2 million tonnes in January 2013 to 1.5 million tonnes as of the end of March 2016.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

 Conditions are favorable for onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala over the next two to three days, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Making the announcement in its


mid-Sunday press release, the IMD pointed out that rain/thundershowers have occurred at many places over West Bengal, Sikkim, coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places in Chhattisgarh, Assam, Meghalaya and Kerala. It has been raining in Kerala for the past few days and the weather officials are analysing the data recorded at the 14 weather stations located at the Lakshadweep, Kerala and in Mangalore in Karnataka.

 The farm sector growth will be good in 2016-17 with the country expected to receive normal monsoon rains this year after two consecutive drought years. Said agriculture production fell slightly by 0.25% in 2014-15 due to weak monsoon and the fact that agriculture growth in the previous year was very good at 4.25%. The agriculture ministry has set a target of producing 270.1 million tonnes of food grain in 2016-17 beginning June, which is 7% higher than the previous year's crop. As per the third advance estimate release in May, food grain production was estimated at 252.23 million tonnes for 2015-16. The agriculture minister said the new government has taken up effective initiatives to fight the challenges prevailing in agricultural sector. The government has chalked out a plan to reduce the input cost in the agriculture sector and sector and to provide farmers better return for their produce.

 Forecasting good news for the country’s economy and farmers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated its initial prediction of ‘above normal’ rainfall in this year’s South-West monsoon season. “The conditions are congenial for the onset of monsoon in the next four-five days and the rainfall quantity will pick up in the second half of June,” IMD Director-General LS Rathore said at a press conference, while releasing an update for the long-range monsoon forecast (JuneSeptember) on Thursday. The icing on the cake is the IMD ruling out a deficient monsoon. “There is a zero per cent probability that the rainfall will be deficient,” Rathore said. A deficient monsoon, which means less than 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, could cause severe distress to farmers, crop loss and drought. This year’s projected plentiful rainfall will bring to an end to two consecutive years of drought. Last year, the country suffered a rainfall deficit of 14 per cent, while in the previous year, the shortfall was 12 per cent.

✍CHANA Chana prices closed higher 0.64 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market.NCDEX Chana July futures ended the day at Rs 6306 per quintal which is about 3.89% up against the previous day. Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices. According to sources, apart from increasing MSP center has decided to give bonus for pulses which is expected to give a strong price signal to farmers for increasing acreage and invest more for pulses production. As per some experts, this year if rains are good then only farmers will prefer sowing tur and other pulses. However, in case of a good crop, prices are bound to fall next year, which will again see a decrease in area for the next year. As per IBIS (provisional data), during the week that ended on 29th May import of pulses (23 May-29 May) was around 65.1 thousand tonnes at major ports in India which is around 31% higher than previous week’s import which was around 49.6 Thousand tonnes. This year Chana stock is 75% less than the average years whereas arrival is also lower than the last year.


✍CORIANDER Coriander futures made handsome gains during the trading session of Friday on extended buying. Hence, a steady sentiment in the absence of any fresh cues. On spot market front, at Kota market, coriander Eagle variety traded at Rs.6400 per quintal while Badami variety traded at Rs.6200 per quintal. On arrivals front, at Kota market total arrivals reported at around 4000 quintals. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3059 tonnes and 99 MT are in process as on 02 June 2016.

✍GUARSEED Guar seed acreage in the states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat is likely to drop by 20% -25% in kharif 2016 in comparison to last year as farmers are reluctant to grow the crop as prices have fallen drastically due to less demand from the export markets. It is likely that farmers may shift to pulses, cotton and groundnut crops as prices of guar fell more than 50% and exports plunged 57% in 2015-16 compared to that in the previous fiscal. Guar gum is now fetching Rs 55 per kg instead of Rs 120 a year ago.Prices of guar gum has plunged to sevenyear low as demand waned from the North American-oil drilling industry, which is putting projects on hold amid a drop in crude prices. Hissaria said that guar is grown is 40 lakh hectares of land in India.

✍JEERA Jeera prices closed lower by 2.1 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for June 2016 contract closed at Rs. 15,865 per quintal, down by 2.1 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,195 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,205. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 15,710. Jeera prices witnessed huge volatility on back of poor spot front activity. From starting of week futures prices moved down on reduced buying activity from local buyers. However, sudden declined in arrivals limited the huge losses and prices took smart recovery. Overall trend remained very volatile with downs in prices due to prevailing mixed sentiments across the spot markets. Buying activity from exporters also reported sluggish which was resulted in huge fall in prices. However, later on prices witnessed small recovery on lower level buying but overall weak trend remained intact. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3777 tonnes and 3MT are in process as on 02 June 2016.

✍RM SEED Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.18 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for June 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,386 per quintal, up by 0.18 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,394 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,378. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,414.


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