BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Even the threat of military action against North Korea couldn’t attract enough buyers to sustain Monday’s early gains. Over the week-end. The early price action in the gold market suggests that the action by North Korea was a nonevent, at least to gold investors. Helping to pressure gold early Monday was the news that congressional leaders reached a spending deal to keep the government running through the fall. There was a series of minor issues, but those have all been worked out, so a shutdown scenario has been averted. This news helped boost the U.S. Dollar which turned gold lower after it opened higher in response to the North Korean incident. Gold is getting support at 28709 and below same could see a test of 28649 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28823, a move above could see prices testing 28877. Gold traded in range as a long-awaited U.S. tax cut plan from the Trump Administration failed to inspire investors, who were disappointed by the lack of new details. The European Central Bank stuck to its ultra-easy policy stance as inflation continues to undershoot its target but explicitly acknowledged the vigour of the euro zone economy, now on its best run since the global financial crisis. Euro zone economic sentiment climbed to a near 10-year high in April against expectations of almost no change as confidence in all sectors improved and inflation expectations dampened, EU data showed. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rose less than expected in March, but a second straight monthly increase in shipments suggested business investment accelerated in the first quarter amid a recovering energy sector. Technically Gold market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 6.96% to settled at 5334 while prices up 50 rupees. The Strong levels for Gold for this week is 28960-29181 is Upside and 28753-28539 is Down side.
GOLD CHART-
Chart Details -Although gold is showing some resilience by holding strong support at its 200-day moving average, its downside potential could be tested next week as the market faces major hurdles, including a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and employment numbers. The gold market is preparing to close in negative territory for the first time in five weeks. June Comex gold futures last traded at $ 1,268.70 an ounce, down 1.6% compared to last Friday’s settlement, And on MCX it is closed around 28893. As of now the Gold is Getting Strong Support at 28800 or resistance is 28980. Although Momentum oscillators are in Positive territory we may witness positive rally in upcoming week.
Monday, 01 .May .2017
SILVER - MCX Silver is Getting Support at 39450 and below same could see the levels of 39340-39300, And Resistance is now likely seen at 39960-40000. Move Above could see prices testing 40150-40280. Precious Metal Setteled down on MCX After US President Donald Trump Announced Unfunded tax Cuts, While Comment from European Central Bank Draghi Weakned Euro. Now Investors are optimism Threat the President Donald Trump’s Tax Cut tax reform Plan would boost the dollar offset weaker than expected economic data as both Initial Jobless claim and Durable Goods order fell Short of Expectations While a bullish pending home sales print capped upside Momentum. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.83% to settled at 8425 while prices down 188 rupees. As of Now the Crucial Levels for Silver is 40367-40980 is Up side and 39233-39000 is Down side.
Detail of Chart -The Silver markets initially tried to rally during the week, but found the $ 18 level to be far too resistive on Comex. We turned around and fell significantly, reaching towards the $ 17.15 level underneath. We believe that the $ 17 level underneath will be supportive, so longer-term traders will probably step to the side. Short-term charts might offer a buying opportunity, but as far as weekly chart is concerned, this is a market that’s probably best left alone. Ultimately, this is a market that will remain volatile, but I believe in the longer-term uptrend if the $ 17 level can hold. The Silver to hold Above 39500 for further rally toward 40320-40670. On the other side Sustaining below 39400 may drag the Index towards 39233-38967 in near term
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
28-APRIL-17
128
127
126
124
123
120
118
117
COPPER
28-APRIL-2017
376
373
370
368
367
365
364
361
358
CRUDE OIL
19-APRIL-17
3357
3294
3231
3189
3168
3126
3105
3042
2979
GOLD
05-JUNE-2017
29174
29067
28960
28917
28853
28810
28746
28639
28532
LEAD
28-APRIL-2017
160
155
150
148
145
143
140
135
130
NATURAL GAS
25-APRIL-2017
223
219
215
213
211
209
207
203
199
NICKEL
28-APRIL-2017
641
629
617
613
605
601
593
581
569
SILVER
05-MAY-2017
41768
40368
39935
39235
38968
38268
37568
ZINC
28-APRIL-2017
175
171
170
167
165
163
41068 173
S1 121
39668 169
168
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
28-APRIL-17
132
130
128
126
124
122
120
118
116
COPPER
28-APRIL-2017
386
379
372
370
365
363
358
351
344
CRUDE OIL
19-APRIL-17
3612
3466
3320
3247
3174
3101
3028
2882
2736
GOLD
05-JUNE-2017
30698
30108
29518
29195
28928
28605
28338
27748
27158
LEAD
28-APRIL-2017
170
161
152
149
143
140
134
125
116
NATURAL GAS
25-APRIL-2017
260
242
224
218
206
200
188
170
152
NICKEL
28-APRIL-2017
671
648
625
616
602
593
579
556
533
SILVER
05-MAY-2017
45401
43611
41821
40662
40031
38872
38241
36451
34661
ZINC
28-APRIL-2017
183
178
173
171
168
166
163
158
153
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-MARCH-17
64.87
64.71
64.55
64.42
64.26
64.13
63.97
63.84
63.71
EURINR
26-MARCH-17
71.85
71.39
70.93
70.49
70.03
69.59
69.13
68.69
68.25
GBPINR
26-MARCH-17
84.95
84.44
83.93
83.59
83.08
82.74
82.23
81.89
81.55
JPYINR
26-MARCH-17
58.28
58.22
58.16
58.08
58.02
57.94
57.88
57.80
57.72
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-MARCH-17
65.54
65.21
64.88
64.58
64.25
63.95
63.62
63.32
63.02
EURINR
26-MARCH-17
72.35
71.80
71.25
70.65
70.10
69.50
68.95
68.35
67.75
GBPINR
26-MARCH-17
86.10
85.21
84.32
83.78
82.89
82.35
81.46
80.92
80.38
JPYINR
26-MARCH-17
60.62
59.98
59.34
58.67
58.03
57.36
56.72
56.05
55.38
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
SYOREFIDR
20-APRIL-2017
SYBEANIDR
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
631
624
617
613
610
606
603
596
589
20-APRIL-2017
3018
2990
2962
2948
2934
2920
2906
2878
2850
RMSEED
20-APRIL-2017
3881
3837
3793
3776
3749
3732
3705
3661
3617
JEERAUNJHA
20-APRIL-2017
20690
20240
19790
19640
19340
19190
18890
18440
17990
GUARSEED10
20-APRIL-2017
3999
3953
3907
3887
3861
3841
3815
3769
3723
TMC
20-APRIL-2017
6319
6239
6159
6109
6079
6029
5999
5919
5839
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-APRIL-2017
670
651
632
621
613
602
594
575
556
SYBEANIDR
20-APRIL-2017
3425
3275
3125
3029
2975
2879
2825
2675
2525
RMSEED
20-APRIL-2017
4011
3928
3845
3802
3762
3719
3679
3596
3513
JEERAUNJHA
20-APRIL-2017
21577
20797
20017
19753
19237
18973
18457
17677
16897
GUARSEED10
20-APRIL-2017
4131
4045
3959
3912
3873
3826
3787
3701
3615
TMC
20-APRIL-2017
6793
6571
6349
6202
6127
5981
5905
5683
5461
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) Gold prices declined in European trading on Monday, falling toward a three-week low after U.S. congressional leaders reached an agreement to fund the government through the fall. Comex gold futures lost $ 4.50, or around 0.4%, to $ 1,263.80 a troy ounce by 2:55AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,262.50. Also on the Comex, silver futures inched down 9.8 cents, or about 0.6% to $ 17.16 a troy ounce, after touching a more than six-week low of $ 17.08 earlier in the session. Trading activity was expected to remain light on Monday, with most markets in Europe, the U.K. and Asia closed for the May Day holiday. Negotiators in the U.S. Congress reached a deal late on Sunday on around $ 1 trillion in federal funding that would fund the government through September 30 and avert a government shutdown later this week. The full House of Representatives and Senate must still approve the bipartisan pact, which would be the first major legislation to clear Congress since Donald Trump became president on January 20. The news boosted Risk-Sensitive Assets, such as global equities, and sparked a sell-off in assets perceived as safe, such as the yen, bullion and U.S. Treasuries, which are often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty.The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index released on Sunday dipped to a six-month low of 51.2 in April from 51.8 in March, below the forecast for 51.6. Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction. Gold prices rose on Friday as robust euro zone inflation data sent the euro higher against the U.S. dollar, but the precious metal still ended the week lower. Gold for June delivery settled at $ 1,269.65 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The annual rate of inflation in the euro area rose by 1.9% in April, Eurostat said, the highest level in over three years. The upbeat data fueled expectations that the European Central Bank could adopt a more hawkish stance at its next policy meeting in June, lifting gold which is priced in U.S. dollars. Data on Friday also showed that the U.S. economy posted its slowest growth in three years in the three months to March, with gross domestic product growing at a 0.7% annual rate. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade -weighted basket of six major currencies, slid to 98.89 late Friday. The precious metal was 1.61% lower for the week, the largest weekly decline in almost two months as waning geopolitical tensions over North Korea and relief over the first round result in the French presidential elections sharpened risk appetite, pressuring gold. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver slid 0.45% to $ 17.25 a troy ounce and ended the week down 3.65%. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report as well as Wednesday’s policy statement by the Federal Reserve. The euro zone is to release data on first quarter growth and the UK is to publish survey data that will further show the economic impact of last year’s Brexit vote. Gold prices held steady on Friday, as global geopolitical tensions reignited some safe-haven demand, although investors were still eyeing the release of U.S. economic reports later in the day. On the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were little changed at $ 1,266.36. The June contract ended Thursday’s session 0.13% higher at $1,265.90 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $ 1,260.70, the low of April 26 and resistance at $ 1,279.90, the high of April 25. Market sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump said he will either renegotiate or terminate a "horrible" trade deal with South Korea. The comments came shortly after Trump said that there is a chance the U.S. could have ‘a major conflict with North Korea.’ On Wednesday, the U.S. President proposed slashing tax rates for businesses to 15% from the current 35% for public corporations and 39.6% for small businesses, and on overseas corporate profits returned to the country. Analysts said traders were disappointed by the lack of new details about the tax reform plan and on skepticism that any comprehensive tax changes will be approved by the House and Senate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress began moving to extend Friday's budget deadline until May 5 and is expected to pass legislation allowing more time to finalize a spending deal to fund the federal government through September and avoid a shutdown. Without the congressional extension or a longer-term funding bill, federal agencies will run out of money by midnight Friday. Market participants were also looking ahead to the release of reports on U.S. first-quarter growth and consumer sentiment, due later Friday. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery gained 0.24% to $ 17.376 a troy ounce, while copper futures for May delivery added 0.12% to $ 2.596 a pound. Gold prices were little changed in European trading on Thursday, holding near the prior session's twoweek low as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump's outline for tax reform. Comex gold futures tacked on $ 1.30, or around 0.1%, to $1,265.40 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET, pulling back after rising to an overnight high of $1,271.10. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,264.15. The yellow metal settled lower for the third session in a row on Wednesday after hitting its weakest level since April 11 at $ 1,260.70. Also on the Comex, silver futures inched up 5.2 cents, or about 0.3% to $17.48 a troy ounce, after touching a six-week low of $17.35 in the prior session. Trump's tax plan, unveiled at the White House by Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Wednesday afternoon, proposed cutting the income tax rate paid by public corporations to 15% from 35% and reduce the top tax rate assessed on pass-through businesses, including small partnerships and sole proprietorships, to 15% from 39.6%. The White House added there will be a "one-time tax" on the trillions of dollars held by corporations overseas. However, the plan drew a cautious welcome from fiscal conservatives and financial markets amid fears that it would make the federal deficit balloon if enacted. Gold prices were down sharply in European trading on Monday, as investors dumped safe-haven assets after results showed centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election. Comex gold futures shed $16.80, or around 1.3%, to $1,272.34 a troy ounce by 2:50AM ET . Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,271.20. The yellow metal fell by as much as 1.8% earlier to a session low of $ 1,266.00, the weakest since April 11. Also on the Comex, silver futures dipped 8.4 cents, or about 0.5% to $ 17.85 a troy ounce, after earlier touching a one-month low of $ 17.55. Results from the first round of the closely-watched French
presidential election on Sunday showed centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen advancing to the second and final round on May 7. Macron took about 23.9% of the vote and Le Pen took 21.4%, according to an official tally with 96% of ballots counted. Macron is widely tipped to win the final vote, with opinion polls showing him comfortably beating Le Pen by around 20 percentage points, reducing the risk of an anti-establishment shock in the final round. Gold prices were lower in European trading on Tuesday, edging down for the second straight session as investor sentiment remained skewed toward riskier assets in the wake of the French election results on Sunday. Comex gold futures shed $ 4.10, or around 0.3%, to $ 1,273.40 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,272.30, down 0.2%. The yellow metal lost $11.60 on Monday after hitting its lowest since April 11 at $ 1,266.00, as investors dumped safe-haven assets after French election results eased fears over the future of the euro zone. Also on the Comex, silver futures dipped 3.5 cents, or about 0.2% to $17.89 a troy ounce, after touching a one-month low of $17.55 in the prior session. Market sentiment remained upbeat after centrist Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential elections. Polls show Macron easily defeating far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the euro, in a runoff vote due to take place May 7, reducing the risk of an anti-establishment shock in the final round. The outcome boosted risk-sensitive assets, such as global equities, and sparked a sell-off in assets perceived as safe, such as the yen, bullion and U.S. Treasuries, which are often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty.
AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEKSIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.
Monday, May 1 • Financial markets in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Europe will be closed for holiday. • The European Commission is to release its economic forecasts for the European Union area. • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is to speak at an event in Los Angeles. • The U.S. is to release data on personal income and expenditure. • Later Monday, the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.
Tuesday, May 2 • China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI. • The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement
which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. • The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
Wednesday, May 3 • Financial markets in Japan and Hong Kong will be closed for holidays. • New Zealand is to publish its quarterly employment report. • The euro zone is to publish a preliminary estimate of first quarter economic growth. • The UK is to release data on construction activity. • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report for January and the ISM is to release its nonmanufacturing PMI. • The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a monetary policy statement.
Thursday, May 4
• Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday. • Australia is to report on its trade balance. • The UK is to release data on service sector activity. • Canada is to publish its latest trade figures. • The U.S. is to release a flurry of economic reports, including data on initial jobless claims, the trade balance and factory orders. • ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Switzerland. • Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Mexico.
Friday, May 5
• Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.
• The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement. • New Zealand is to release data on inflation expectations. • Canada is to produce its monthly employment report and the Ivey PMI. • The U.S. is to round up the week with the non-farm payrolls report for April and Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Providence. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is to speak at an event in Stanford.
ENERGY Oil prices edged down on Monday on worries that OPEC-led production cuts may not significantly tighten an oversupplied market in the short term despite talk of extending them. NYMEX crude for June delivery CLc1 was down 12 cents at $49.21 a barrel by 0032 GMT, after settling up 36 cents on Friday. The contract is up about 2 percent from a one-month low hit on Thursday. London Brent crude for new front-month delivery in July LCOc1 was down 14 cents at $ 51.91. Iran's oil minister said on Saturday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries had given positive signals for an extension of output cuts, which Tehran would also back. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets this month to discuss oil supply policy. If OPEC agrees to extend the cuts, then bloated global inventories could drain by the end of the year, a Reuters poll of economists and analysts showed. Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid alFalih said on Saturday there was consensus with Central Asia over oil markets and production levels. who had arrived on a visit to Turkmenistan earlier and is on a tour of Central Asian nations, also tweeted there was agreement with the region on the necessity of sticking to production cuts. Oil prices have got no firm support from rising geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday stepped up outreach to allies in Asia to secure their cooperation to pressure North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs. calls to the two Asian leaders came after North Korea test-launched another missile that Washington and Seoul said was unsuccessful but which drew widespread international condemnation. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the first time in four weeks in the week to April 25, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. Oil futures settled a bit higher on Friday, but still registered a weekly and monthly loss as signs of further gains in U.S. crude output and doubts over whether OPEC will extend output cuts at its May meeting pressured prices. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude June contract tacked on 36 cents, or around 0.7%, to end at $ 49.33 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It fell to its lowest since March 28 at $ 48.20 on Thursday. The U.S. benchmark lost 35 cents, or almost 0.6%, on the week. For April, it fell around 3%, the second straight monthly decline. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery ticked up 23 cents to settle at $52.05 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark sank to $51.01 a day earlier, a level not seen since March 27. For the week, London-traded Brent futures recorded a loss of 38 cents, or nearly
0.5%. The benchmark ended about 2% lower for the month. Crude has been under pressure in recent weeks amid fears that an ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 15th week in a row, data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on Friday, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The U.S. rig count rose by 9 to 697, extending an 11-month drilling recovery to the highest level since August 2015. The relentless increase in U.S. output has overshadowed pledged output cuts by major producers. Oil was higher Friday on renewed hopes of an extension of output cuts by major producers. U.S. crude was up 51 cents, or 1.04%, at $ 49.48 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude gained 52 cents, or 1.00%, to $ 52.34. Output cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day agreed by OPEC and Non-OPEC producers have so far failed to make inroads into an inventories glut. OPEC and Non-OPEC producers are expected to decide next month whether to extend the accord beyond June. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said Friday it was important to agree an extension. Higher crude output is offsetting the impact of the output cuts. Baker Hughes rig count data are due out later Friday. Oil prices rose on Friday but were still on track for a second straight weekly loss on concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were trading at $ 49.40 per barrel at 0344 GMT, up 43 cents, or 0.88 percent, from their last close. However, WTI is still set for a small weekly loss and is around 8 percent below its April peak. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $ 51.86 per barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.82 percent. Brent is almost around 8.5 percent down from its April peak and is also on track for a second, albeit small, week of declines. Traders said that Friday's rises came on the back of OPEC saying it was keen to find a deal that would ensure a drawdown of excess fuel supplies. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia originally pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day only during the first half of the year. But OPEC has come under pressure to extend the cuts to cover all of 2017 in order to counter bulging supplies elsewhere. "OPEC. effectively said the production cut will be extended, meeting the reality of the restart of a big Libyan oil field and the continued expansion of U.S. shale oil. The ongoing supply overhang is in part due to surging U.S. production , which has risen by 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.27 million bpd. Consultancy Rystad Energy expects U.S. shale oil output to grow by 100,000 bpd each month for the rest of this year and into 2018, well above estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for monthly gains of about 29,000 bpd in 2017 and 57,000 bpd in 2018. the United States, rising output in Libya, an OPEC-member exempt from the cuts, was adding to plentiful supplies. bank said that OPEC was under pressure to extend the cuts. "Even though inventories have started to fall, they remain at elevated levels. Oil prices stabilised on Friday but were on track for a second straight weekly loss on concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 49.21 per barrel at 0036 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.5
percent, from their last close. However, WTI is still set for a small weekly loss and is down more than 8 percent from its April peak. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 51.59 per barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent. Brent is almost 9 percent below its April peak and is also on track for a second week of declines. Traders said that Friday's slight rises came on the back of statements by OPEC that it was keen to find a deal that would ensure a drawdown of excess global fuel supplies, which have weighed on markets for over two years. a deal would likely mean an extension of a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year. Despite this, traders remained worried about increasing supply." This is largely due to a persistent rise in U.S. crude oil production , which has risen by 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.27 million bpd, to levels last seen during the height of the oil glut between late 2014 and early 2016. And analysts expect U.S. production to keep rising this year. Consultancy Rystad Energy expects U.S. shale oil output to grow by 100,000 bpd each month for the rest of this year and into 2018, well above estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for monthly gains of about 29,000 bpd in 2017 and 57,000 bpd in 2018. "We see a risk for a weaker oil price towards the end of the year. because shale is delivering so much oil and OPEC might fight back," Jarand Rystad told Reuters earlier this week. the United States, rising output in Libya, an OPEC-member exempt from the cuts, was adding to plentiful supplies. Oil was lower Thursday as concerns about a supply glut continued to weigh. U.S. crude was off 94 cents, or 1.89%, at $ 48.68 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude shed $ 1.04, or 1.98%, to $ 51.37. U.S. crude output has risen by about 10% from the levels seen mid-2016. Official Energy Information Administration data Wednesday showed a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude stocks in the latest week. But gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose. Higher U.S. output undermines the impact of output cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day agreed by OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. OPEC and Non-OPEC producers are expected to decide next month whether to extend the accord beyond June. Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a general sentiment of globally bloated markets, though traders said that prices seemed to have found support around current levels. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 49.37 per barrel at 0644 GMT, down 25 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close. WTI has lost around 8.5 percent in value from its April peak. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 51.63 per barrel, down 19 cents, or 0.37 percent. Brent is almost 9 percent below its April peak. Traders said the falls in recent weeks were due to a realisation that global oil markets remained oversupplied, despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year to tighten the market and prop up prices. is clear that the world has plenty of oil in stock, making OPEC's life that much harder ahead of its June production cut rollover date. While the United States reported a drop in its commercial crude oil stocks on Wednesday, albeit from near-record highs, its gasoline inventories surged as refiners produced more fuel than the market could consume. U.S. crude oil
production continued its relentless rise, and is now up 10 percent since mid-2016 at 9.27 million bpd, at comparable levels to the peak oil glut between late 2014 and early 2016. Rystad Energy expects U.S. shale oil output to grow by 100,000 barrels per day each month for the rest of this year and into 2018 if oil prices hold around $ 50-$ 55 a barrel, well above estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for monthly gains of about 29,000 bpd in 2017 and 57,000 bpd in 2018. Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a general sentiment of globally bloated markets, though traders said that prices seemed to have found support around current levels. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 49.34 per barrel at 0137 GMT, down 28 cents, or 0.56 percent from their last close. WTI has lost around 8.5 percent in value from its April peak. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.58 per barrel, down 24 cents, or 0.46 percent, from their last close. Brent is almost 9 percent below its April peak. Traders said that the falls in recent weeks were a result of a realisation that global oil markets remained oversupplied, despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. is clear that the world has plenty of oil in stock, making OPEC's life that much harder ahead of its June production cut rollover date," While the United States reported a drop in its commercial crude oil stocks on Wednesday, albeit from near-record highs, its gasoline inventories surged as refiners produced more fuel than the market could consume. with an expectation that OPEC would lobby for an extension of the production cuts to cover all of 2017, analysts said there was support for prices around current levels. Reuters technical commodities analyst Wang Tao said that "Brent oil looks neutral in a range of $ 51.30$52.32 per barrel." Murky oil inventory picture leaves market grappling for clarity Oil edged higher Tuesday ahead of U.S. stockpile data after a six-day losing streak as a supply glut continued to overhang the market. U.S. crude was up 6 cents, or 0.12%, at $ 49.29 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude added 11 cents, or 0.21%, to $ 52.24. The American Petroleum Institute is expected later Tuesday to report a fall of 1.3 million barrels in crude stocks in the latest week. Official Energy Information Administration inventories are due out Wednesday. Higher U.S. output is canceling out the impact of production cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A decision on a possible extension of that deal beyond June is expected to be taken on May 25. Oil prices recovered some ground on Tuesday, halting six consecutive sessions of slide, but markets remain under pressure as traders lose confidence that pledged output cuts by major producers will rein in oversupply in a world awash with fuel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 had added 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, by 0640 GMT, but remained below the $ 50 mark pierced late last week, at $ 49.37 a barrel. Brent crude LCOc1 rose 14 cents, or 0.27 percent, to $51.74 per barrel. Traders said the gains were a counter-reaction to consecutive price drops in the previous six sessions. Despite Tuesdays increases, market sentiment has turned bearish, with Brent down 10 percent since late 2016 despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 in order to tighten the market. that oil supplies remain at record
highs despite the cuts, that Oil Producing and Exporting Countries has failed miserably in its endeavour to balance the oil market. “it is evident that. crude markets are still struggling to clear. The bank said that it was closing its "August Brent long position at a loss."
AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.
Tuesday, May 2 • The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Wednesday, May 3 • The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles. Thursday, May 4 • The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage. Friday, May 5 • Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK Trading Ideas: Aluminium Aluminium trading range for the is 120.5-127.1. Aluminium dropped as the pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed this month, as factory-gate price-growth slowed. The U.S. Commerce Department launched an investigation to determine whether a flood of aluminum imports from China and elsewhere was compromising U.S. national security. Prices felt pressure as investors withdrew from riskier assets as an unconvincing U.S. tax cut plans cooling investors' spirits.
Nickel Nickel trading range for the is 582.9-604.7. Nickel gains as support seen after Philippine Environment Secretary Regina Lopez said she would ban open-pit mining in the country. Each open pit is a financial liability for government for life," Lopez told. "It kills the economic potential
of the place." However gains were limited amid pick-up in China’s nickel ore/concentrate imports from Indonesia, which helped counter falling imports from the Philippines.
Zinc Zinc trading range for the day is 163.8-170. Zinc prices dropped the market is getting worried about the tightening monetary process in China. Also the Trump reflation trade is still unwinding because the market is not convinced that the tax package will be approved. The global zinc market is forecast to register a deficit of 226,000 tonnes in 2017, while the lead market will be close to balanced, the ILZSG said.
BASE METAL ✍ BASE METAL
( 26 - April - 2017 )
Base metals on Friday were trading higher though it showed a mixed trend throughout the week. Copper tracked modestly higher, but warning about broader industry sentiment suggested weaker outlook. Nickel gains as support seen after Philippine environment secretary Regina Lopez said she would ban open-pit mining in the country.
✍ COPPER -
( 26 - April - 2017 )
The central government incurs a revenue loss of Rs. 500 crore every year owing to non-payment of taxes by the unregistered secondary copper market, which accounts for 45 per cent of the copper scrap processed in the country, according to the International Copper Association India. The association says the production of sub-material by the secondary industry has impacted the domestic market. The ICAI is a member of Copper Alliance and the Indian arm of the International Copper Association Limited .
✍ COPPER
-(
25- April - 2017 )
On Friday base metals were trading lower. Copper miner Freeport-McMoRan warned it would punish workers for absenteeism at its Indonesian unit, a day after one of its main unions announced plans to go on one-month strike over employment conditions. While Freeport is expecting to soon seal agreements with Jakarta to allow it to temporarily resume copper concentrate exports after more than three-month hiatus, a strike could impact its efforts to ramp up production.
✍ COPPER
( 20 - April - 2017 )
Copper prices rose by 0.65 per cent to Rs 363.55 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions amid rising demand in domestic spot markets. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 2.35, or 0.65 per cent, to Rs 363.55 per kg in a business turnover of 3,189 lots. Metal for delivery in far-month June rose Rs 2.15, or 0.59 per cent, to Rs 367.75 per kg in 87 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in copper futures to a firm trend at the domestic markets following pick up in demand from consuming industries.
✍ ZINC
( 20 - April - 2017 )
Zinc futures traded 0.28 per cent lower at Rs 162.95 per kg today after speculators trimmed positions at prevailing levels. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in current month declined 45 paise, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 162.95 per kg. It clocked a business turnover of 1,032 lots. The metal for delivery in May softened by 30 paise, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at Rs 163.50 per kg in 40 lots. Market analysts said weakness in zinc futures trade was mostly due to profit-booking by speculators at existing levels and muted demand at the domestic spot market.
✍ NICKEL
( 20 - April - 2017 )
Nickel prices gained 0.26 per cent to Rs 612.50 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions, supported by rising demand from alloy-makers in the spot market even as base metals retreated overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in May moved up by Rs 1.60, or 0.26 per cent, to Rs 612.50 per kg in a business turnover of 199 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 1.50, or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 606.40 per kg in a business turnover of 1,759 lots.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF AGRI MARKET ✍ SUGAR
( 1 - May - 2017 )
Raw sugar futures on ICE vaulted higher on Friday, on late-day buying just moments before the May contract expired as the delivery was viewed as larger-than-expected.The London agricultural markets will shut for a holiday Monday and reopen on Tuesday, while ICE Futures U.S. soft commodities will open
late on Monday at 7:30 a.m. EDT.
SUGAR July raw sugar SBc2 settled up 0.7 cent, or 4.5 percent, at 16.13 cents per lb, its biggest one-day rally on a continuation chart since Jan. 3. It closed April down 4.4 percent, its third straight monthly fall after touching a one-year low on Thursday. Traders also eyed industrial unrest in top producer Brazil. August white sugar LSUc1 settled up $ 13.10, or 2.9 percent, at $ 459.50 per tonne.
✍ SUGAR
( 30- April - 2017 )
Raw sugar futures on ICE were higher on Friday, but remained on course for a weekly loss as the market kept a close watch on the May contract due to expire later in the day.Coffee and New York cocoa prices also rose, although the strength of sterling weighed on London cocoa.
SUGAR July raw sugar SBc2 was up 0.22 cent, or 1.4 percent, to 15.65 cents per lb at 1210 GMT, regaining some ground after the prior session's slide to a one-year low of 15.35 cents. The contract, however, remained on track for a weekly loss of more than 5 percent. Dealers said the main focus on Friday was the expiry of the May contract SBK7 , with a delivery of around 750,000 to one million tonnes generally anticipated. August white sugar LSUc1 was up $5.40 at $451.80 a tonne.
✍ SUGAR
( 28- April - 2017 )
Sugar futures on ICE fell to one-year lows on Thursday, dropping for the fourth straight session on follow-through selling that increased the spot raw contract's discount to the biggest in seven months ahead of its expiry on Friday.
SUGAR July raw sugar SBc2 settled down 0.14 cent, or 0.9 percent, at 15.43 cents per lb, after touching 15.35
cents, the weakest for the second position in a year. The drop followed a 4.4 percent tumble on Wednesday, when total open interest dropped by more than 5,500 lots, with traders noting heavy speculative selling. Dealers expected a large delivery of about 1 million tonnes as the May discount to July SBK7-N7 SB1=R fell to 0.26 cent, the biggest on a spot continuation chart since the October 2016 expiry. Brazil's center-south sugar output in the first half of April was up sharply from the second half of March, cane industry group Unica said. August white sugar LSUc1 settled down $ 6.90, or 1.5 percent, at $ 446.40 per tonne, also a one-year low.
✍ SUGAR
( 27- April - 2017 )
Raw sugar futures prices firmed on Thursday as light short-covering helped the market partly correct after it plunged to its lowest level in a year in the previous session.
SUGAR July raw sugar SBc2 was up 0.19 cent, or 1.24 percent, at 15.57 cents per lb by 1134 GMT in low volume, after earlier touching 15.69 cents. Prices tumbled 4.4 percent in a record one-day trading volume on Wednesday, slipping to its weakest since April 28, 2016 on a wave of speculative selling. The market remained only marginally off the lows on Thursday, with dealers noting gains represented a correction after it slipped into oversold territory. The focus was on the expiry of the May SBK7 contract on Friday. Exports from Brazil's center-south cane belt are expected to fall by 400,000 tonnes in the 2017/18 season, industry group Unica said on Wednesday in its first estimate for the next crop. This is mainly due to a fall in the cane crush, although the impact on sugar output will be partly offset by more cane being turned into sugar and a higher level of sugar extraction. Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities has can celled a purchase tender for at least 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar, it said on Thursday. August white sugar LSUc1 also rose $ 2.60, or 0.57 percent, to $ 455.90 a tonne.
COFFEE ( 1- May - 2017 ) July arabica coffee KCc2 settled up 3.9 cent, or 3 percent, at $1.334 per lb, but closed April down 5.8 percent.
Arabica futures bounced up from Thursday's 10-1/2-year low at $1.2865, which was becoming a technical support level.
COFFEE ( 30- April - 2017 ) Robusta coffee edged higher, but remained on track for a weekly loss of around 3.5 percent following a bout of fund long liquidation earlier in the week. July robusta LRCc2 rose $11, or 0.6 percent, to $1,921 a tonne. The second month slid to a low of $1,871 on Tuesday, its weakest since Sept. 6, 2016.
✍ COFFEE
( 28- April - 2017 )
July arabica coffee KCc2 settled down 1.2 cents, or 0.92 percent, at $1.295 per lb, after falling to the lowest on a continuation chart since June at $1.2865 on technical sell signals, traders said.
✍ COFFEE ( 27 April - 2017 ) Coffee prices in Vietnam and Indonesia dropped this week following a tumble in London prices, traders said on Thursday.The London ICE July contract LRCN7 had shed 11.3 percent over the past week as of Wednesday's close, hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low on Tuesday as funds liquidate longs. 5-percent black and broken grade 2 robusta COFVN-G25-SAI in Vietnam, the world's largest grower of robusta beans, was quoted at a premium of $ 40-$ 50 per tonne to London's ICE July contract, compared with discounts of $25-$35 last week.
COCOA ( 30- April - 2017 ) London cocoa prices were marginally lower, weighed partly by the strength of sterling, which climbed to a seven-month high against the dollar on Friday. Dealers said the market had regained some ground after sliding to a four-year low of 1,372 pounds last week, but the scope for further gains appeared limited with the market still struggling to absorb a huge harvest in Ivory Coast.
COCOA ( 28- April - 2017 ) July London cocoa LCCc2 settled down 9 pounds, or 0.6 percent, at 1,464 pounds per tonne, partly pressured by a firmer pound GBP
The lifts in the market were purely down to short-covering and the fundamentals of oversupply are still there," said one dealer.
✍ WHEAT ( 28- April - 2017 ) Asian flour millers are facing tight supplies of a variety of Australian wheat which is used for making mainly noodles as farmers hold back stocks amid near decade-low prices.Buyers are having difficulty in getting shipments of Australian Standard White wheat for the coming months, which could force millers to seek alternative supplies, traders and millers said.Asia is the world's biggest and fastest growing wheat market, fuelled by rising consumption of noodles, flat breads and bakery products. China and India each consume roughly 100 million tonnes a year and Indonesia has emerged as the world's second largest wheat importer behind Egypt, buying more than 10 million tonnes in the year to June 2016, up 35 percent on a year earlier.
PALM OIL
( 29- April - 2017 )
The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets.
FUNDAMENTALS Malaysian palm oil futures reversed gains on Thursday evening as the market took profit after hitting a two-week high. Chicago corn and soybean futures edged higher on Thursday on concerns about weather delays to spring planting and relief that the White House will not immediately withdraw the United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement Crude prices were slightly lower after a volatile session on Thursday, as the restart of two key Libyan oilfields and concerns about lackluster gasoline demand fed concern over whether major oil producers can alleviate the glut of global inventories.
MARKET NEWS A gauge of world stock markets slipped on Thursday as a three-day rally stalled in the wake of a largely expected U.S. tax cut plan, while the euro weakened after comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. To view freight rates from Peninsula Malaysia/Sumatra to China, India, Pakistan and Rotterdam, please key in OILS/ASIA2 and press enter, or double click between the brackets.
Reuters Terminal users can see cash and futures edible oil prices by double clicking on the codes in the brackets: To go to the next page in the same chain, hit F12. To go back, hit F11.
✍ EDIBLE OIL
( 27- April - 2017 )
Barring a fall in groundnut oil, major edible oil prices today generally ruled flat in the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra in the absence of any worthwhile trading activity. Slackness in demand from millers and retailers against adequate stocks mainly pulled groundnut oil prices down. No trader was in mood for any commitment because of good recovery in international edible oils, sources said Thursday. VIDARBHA MARKETS OILS Soyabean, cottonseed, sunflower refined, linseed, rapeseed, castor and coconut KP oil Traders expect nearly steady trend in major edible oils here.
SOYMEAL Soymeal prices today recovered here on increased buying support from South-based traders.
SOYABEAN Soyabean prices firmed up again in Nagpur Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee on increased demand from local crushing plants amid weak supply from producing belts. Notable rise in soymeal, upward trend in Madhya Pradesh soyabean prices and enquiries from South-based plants also jacked up prices. Nearly 900 soyabean bags reported for auctions here,
✍ EDIBLE OIL
( 24 - April - 2017 )
Select edible and non edible oil prices dipped up at the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra on considerable fall in demand at prevailing levels, amid weak trends in overseas markets. Sentiment turned weak as Malaysian palm oil and American soya digam reported weak. Fresh fall on NCDEX in soyabean oil and downward trend in Madhya Pradesh edible oil prices also affected sentiment, according to sources.
VIDARBHA MARKETS OILS Soyabean, sunflower refined, linseed and rapeseed oil today declined sharply here in absence of buyers amid good supply from producing regions.
Cottonseed, groundnut loose, groundnut refined, castor and coconut KP oil today ruled steady here in sluggish trading activity. Traders expect further fall in soyabean oil here. SOYMEAL Soymeal prices today ruled steady here but demand was poor. SOYABEAN Soyabean prices moved down in Nagpur Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee on lack of demand from local crushing plants amid good supply from producing belts. Fresh fall in soyabean oil, no takers to soymeal and downward trend in Madhya Pradesh soyabean mandi also pulled down prices. About 700 soyabean bags reported for auctions here, according to sources.
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