BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - The precious metal had a great start in the beginning of this year. Gold prices rose from $ 1130 – 1260 per ounce, within a period of 2 and half months. In Gold international spot market But somehow the bullish tone could not keep up till the end of February. After testing the resistance level at 1250.00, Gold prices saw a sharp selloff to 1200.00. Later prices did rebound from 1200.00, but it resulted in a sense of uncertainty for traders. Market sentiment is neutral for now, Keep watching the price action till we get some clarity. uncertainty surrounding the impact of Britain's departure from the European Union and upcoming French elections offered support MCX gold from high where little selling registered around the resistance when we told the above target may found up to 28636 and 28855 it showed above price of 29948 by achieving the target easily. We had stated clearly that stand into the buy position on Rs.28147 the support did not break and rise registered up to 540 since buying from the low Rs.28392 on the other hand; we mentioned $1207 as near support which was not broken during the week and showed .
Monday, 3 April .2017
GOLD CHART
Chart Details -The Gold facing a Key resistance level at 1250.00. Price action must clearly breach this level to continue further positive growth. Temporary fluctuations and noises beyond this resistance level can’t be considered as a valid breakout, prices should break and retest 1250.00, only then we can expect the positive tone to continue. Market may get more volatile in coming days, so traders must have a tight risk management while initiating trades. MCX gold from high where little selling registered around the resistance above target may found up to 28660 and 28800 it showed above price of 29980 by achieving the target easily. We had stated clearly that stand into the buy position on Rs. 28180 the support did not break and rise registered up to 540 since buying from the low Rs. 28400 on the other hand. MCX gold makes bump and run reversal top pattern on technical chart which shows boom will remain unchanged with short covering on near support 28354 from the decline. Below target can be seen up to 28084 by breaking 28354 with heavy volume and giving close below it.
SILVER - Technical and fundamental factors point to a short-term retracement of silver before it moves higher again in the coming weeks. The declining trend line and some stochastic readings indicate a reversal in coming sessions. But short-term losses should be capped by the 23.6% Fibonacci level at around the $17.791 level, with the precious metal thereafter expected to resume its upward trend. The ABCD wave, which aims to identify support and resistance levels, backs this argument. The exponential moving average and the moving average convergence and divergence are also supportive of a long-term bullish trend. As a result, silver could resume its upward movement toward the $ 19 level, a point at which it is likely to meet strong resistance. From a fundamental point of view, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies is underpinning demand for safe-haven assets such as precious metals. This was witnessed by the market reaction to the failure of the Republican healthcare reform bill to gain support in the U.S. House of Representatives. SILVER CHART
Detail of Chart -There is upper Bollinger band of the strong improving pro move is becoming on Rs. 42600 in MCX gold which can be considered as the near Resistance. It is likely to remain little profitable selling in the surge of below Rs.42784 when we told quick above target may found up to 42980 by crossing the given Resistance with the strong volume and giving close on it.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
ALUMINIUM
31-MARCH-17
132
130
128
127
126
COPPER
28-APR-2017
399
393
387
383
381
CRUDE OIL
20-MARCH-17
3401
3358
3315
3300
GOLD
05-APR-2017
28791
28684
28577
LEAD
31-MARCH-2017
155
153
NATURAL GAS
28-MARCH-2017
222
NICKEL
31-MARCH-2017
SILVER ZINC
S1
S2
S3
S4
124
122
120
377
375
369
363
3272
3257
3229
3186
3143
28520
28470
28413
28363
28256
28149
151
150
149
148
147
145
143
217
212
208
207
203
202
197
192
677
666
655
647
644
636
633
622
611
05-MAY-2017
43573
43114
42655
42490
42196
42031
41737
41278
40819
31-MARCH-2017
190
187
184
183
181
180
178
175
125
172
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31-MARCH-17
135
132
129
127
126
124
123
120
117
COPPER
28-APR-2017
433
415
397
389
379
371
361
343
325
CRUDE OIL
20-MARCH-17
3852
3640
3428
3356
3216
3144
3004
2792
2580
GOLD
05-APR-2017
30161
29643
29125
28794
28607
28276
28089
27571
27053
LEAD
31-MARCH-17
164
159
154
152
149
147
144
139
134
NATURAL GAS
28-MARCH-2017
249
234
219
212
204
197
189
174
159
NICKEL
31-MARCH-2017
720
693
666
653
639
626
612
585
558
SILVER
05-MAY-2017
44509
43719
42929
42627
42139
41837
41349
40559
39769
ZINC
31-MARCH-2017
205
197
189
184
181
176
173
165
157
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-MARCH-17
66.80
65.72
65.64
65.50
64.44
64.28
64.18
64.08
64.01
EURINR
26-MARCH-17
72.86
72.62
71.86
71.46
70.94
70.44
69.84
69.66
GBPINR
26-MARCH-17
84.67
83.83
82.92
82.18
81.28
80.64
80.53
79.64
78.88
JPYINR
26-MARCH-17
62.82
61.66
60.24
59.48
58.76
57.62
56.86
55.34
53.57
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
68.54
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
USDINR
26-MARCH-17
66.78
65.85
64.65 64.12
63.82
62.74
61.18
61.06
59.84
EURINR
26-MARCH-17
76.74
73.62
73.79 72.63
71.12
70.86
69.65
68.44
67.35
GBPINR
26-MARCH-17
92.68
91.44
90.85 88.70
86.46
84.18
82.28
80.58
78.74
JPYINR
26-MARCH-17
65.53
65.41
64.43 63.88
62.62
58.60
57.72
55.18
53.39
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
SYOREFIDR
20-MAR-2017
SYBEANIDR
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
651
646
641
638
636
633
631
626
621
20-MAR-2017
2912
2894
2876
2866
2858
2848
2840
2822
2804
RMSEED
20-MAR-2017
4121
4053
3985
3947
3917
3879
3849
3781
3713
JEERAUNJHA
20-MAR-2017
19193
18783
18373
18137
17963
17727
17553
17143
16733
GUARSEED10
20-MAR-2017
4240
4150
4060
4025
3970
3935
3880
3790
3700
TMC
20-MAR-2017
6593
6497
6401
6339
6305
6243
6209
6113
6017
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-MAR-2017
676
663
650
642
637
629
624
611
598
SYBEANIDR
20-MAR-2017
3060
2995
2930
2893
2865
2828
2800
2735
2670
RMSEED
20-MAR-2017
4215
4119
4023
3965
3927
3869
3831
3735
3639
JEERAUNJHA
20-MAR-2017
20233
19508
18783
18342
18058
17617
17333
16608
15883
GUARSEED10
20-MAR-2017
4667
4417
4167
4078
3917
3828
3667
3417
3167
TMC
20-MAR-2017
6894
6706
6518
6398
6330
6210
6142
5954
5766
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) Gold prices retraced losses on Friday after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank was in no rush to tighten monetary policy this year. Gold for April delivery settled up 0.19% at $1,247.4 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having touched lows of $1,246.4 earlier. Gold moved higher after New York Fed President William Dudley said Friday that it made sense to raise rates at a gradual pace this year. Expectations of a slower pace of rate increases tend to boost gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. The precious metal ended the quarter with a gain of almost 8.5% boosted by the weaker dollar and growing doubts over whether the Trump administration's economic proposals would boost the U.S. economy and allow the Fed to tighten policy more aggressively. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was up 0.3% at $18.26 a troy ounce late Friday.In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for fresh indications on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike ahead of Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. Investors will also be eyeing a trio of surveys on UK private sector activity amid ongoing concerns over the economic impact of Brexit. Gold demand in India rose this week due to a festival and as local prices adjusted to an appreciating rupee, while higher prices kept a check on demand elsewhere in Asia. The Gudi Padwa festival, also known as Ugadi in some parts of the country, was held earlier this week. Buying gold during festivals is considered auspicious in the world's second-biggest market."Retail demand improved due to Gudi Padwa and a drop in prices," Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices. They were charging a premium of $2.00 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. The demand is likely to remain firm next month due to another festival, Akshaya Tritiya, and the start of the wedding season, In the local market gold futures MAUc1 were trading around 28,500 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, down 1 percent from a week ago. The Indian rupee has risen 4.8 percent against the U.S. dollar so far in 2017, partly offsetting gains in overseas gold prices. "Jewellery demand has been good so far this year, but investment demand is still weak. Investors are more interested in the stock market," In top consumer China, premiums fell to about $8 to $10 an ounce against the international benchmark XAU= from levels $10 to $12 last week. Gold remained steady on Friday with global political uncertainty, the upcoming elections in Europe in particular, seen supporting prices of the yellow metal, driving the metal to its best quarter in a year Premiums in China had risen early this month as traders said supplies of the precious metal were limited due to tightening import restrictions to stem currency outflows. were quoted in a 70 cents to $1 range in Hong Kong, mostly unchanged from last week. In Japan, traders saw the precious metal at a discount of $1, due to lack of any significant demand.
Gold prices edged lower for a third straight session on Thursday, adding to their decline from a one-month high reached at the start of the week as the dollar strengthened amid expectations for more U.S. interest rate hikes this year. Comex gold futures dipped $3.20, or around 0.3%, to $1,250.50 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was down $2.50 at $1,251.10. Gold hit its strongest since February 27 at $1,264.20 on Monday. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 6.4 cents, or about 0.4%, to $18.18 a troy ounce. In the previous session, the metal touched its highest since March 2 at $18.27. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 99.86 in London morning trade. It rose to an overnight high of 99.99, extending a bounce off a four-and-a-half month low of 98.67 touched on Monday. The greenback was boosted by hawkish comments from a number of Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. There are three more Fed speakers on the calendar for Thursday. New York Fed chief William Dudley is expected to be the most important, with a 4:30PM ET discussion on financial conditions and monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President Williams speaks at 11AM ET, while Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks at 3PM in New York. On the data front, investors will have initial jobless claims and the final look at fourth quarter GDP, both released at 8:30AM ET. The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month and stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year. Fed fund futures priced in around a 50% chance of a rate hike in June. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform following the House's failure to vote on a plan to replace Obamacare last week. Elsewhere in metals trading, platinum tacked on 0.4% to $959.70, while palladium declined 0.3% to $787.62 an ounce.May copper futures dropped 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.662 a pound. Gold prices edged lower during European morning hours on Wednesday, pulling further away from its strongest level in a month as investors braced for formal Brexit procedures to be triggered by the U.K. government later in the day. British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty later on Wednesday, formally beginning the two-year process of exiting the European Union. May will send a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk on Wednesday formally announcing Britain's withdrawal from the bloc. The correspondence will start the clock ticking on a two-year countdown to Brexit and allow negotiations to start between London and Brussels in the coming weeks. Comex gold futures dipped $5.95, or around 0.5%, to $ 1,249.65 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was down $1.90 at $ 1,250.10. Gold hit its strongest since February 27 at $ 1,261.00 on Monday. Market players also awaited comments from a number of Federal Reserve policymakers later in the session for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are all scheduled to speak throughout the day. The yellow metal ended Tuesday's session little changed, despite upbeat economic data and rate hike chatter from a number of Fed officials. U.S. consumer confidence index hit
125.6 in March, according to the Conference Board, the highest since December 2000. The figure blew past expectations for a reading of 114 and came in much higher than 116.1 in February. The solid data backed expectations for more U.S. interest rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in a television interview that two more increases to U.S. overnight interest rates this year seemed "about right." The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up around 0.2% at 99.68 in London morning trade, bouncing off a four-and-a-half month low of 98.67 touched on Monday. The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month, but stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year. Fed fund futures priced in around a 50% chance of a rate hike in June, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 15.0 cents, or about 0.8%, to $18.10 a troy ounce. In the previous session, the metal touched its highest since March 2 at $18.26. Meanwhile, platinum slumped 0.3% to $958.35, while palladium declined 0.1% to $792.10 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures dropped 0.7 cents, or 0.3%, to $2.669 a pound. Gold bullion investment will rise for the fourth straight year in 2017 as global political and economic factors are forecast to maintain buying interest, . "There has been a return of opportunistic generalist investors who had exited gold in late 2011 and early 2012," New York-based CPM Group said in its Gold Yearbook 2017. CPM forecast gold bullion investment at 17.6 million ounces in 2017, up from 17.4 million ounces in 2016 and the highest since 2012 when it was 29.2 million ounces. The independent commodities research company pegged global gold coin demand at 7.5 million ounces in 2017, up from 7 million ounces in 2016 and the highest since 2013. "Most long-term gold investors do not seem to expect the world's financial and political systems to collapse. Rather, they see them as facing major structural problems that will not be easily resolved or repaired in any short period of time. "In the near- to mediumterm as it is becoming clearer to that, while there may not be a collapse in the financial system, clearly the present interest rate environment, global economic growth profile, levels of unemployment and underemployment, and political turmoil globally are all factors that warrant owning at least some gold as a portfolio diversifier." The lack of clarity regarding the outcomes of U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign promises and interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate hikes is expected to prevent precious metals prices from taking a clear direction in 2017. Fabrication demand fell in 2016 to an estimated 92.2 million ounces, down 4.1 percent from 2015 as gold prices rose in the first eight months of the year and jewelry demand fell in China and India, the two biggest consumers of gold fabricated products. Fabrication demand was forecast to rise slightly to 92.8 million tonnes in 2017. Central banks added gold to their holdings on a collective net basis for the ninth straight year in 2016 to an estimated 7.2 million ounces, up from 5.3 million ounces in 2015. Mine supply rose to a record high in 2016 and was forecast to continue rising into 2017. Total 2016 supply, however, which includes mine and
secondary supplies, also rose in 2016 but was still lower than 2012 levels. expects total supply to rise again in 2017 due to mine supply. Ahead of the coming week significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, April 3 Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a holiday. Japan is to publish the results of the Tankan surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity. Australia is to release data on retail sales and building approvals. The UK is to release survey data on manufacturing activity. In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing survey. Meanwhile, New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker are all set to speak.
Tuesday, April 4 New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence. Financial markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong will be closed for a holiday. Australia is to report on the trade balance and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision is due. The UK is to release survey data on construction activity. Canada and the U.S. are both to release trade data, while the U.S. is also to report on factory orders.
Wednesday, April 5 The UK is to release survey data on service sector activity. The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payroll report and later in the day the ISM is to release its nonmanufacturing survey. The Fed is to publish the minutes of its March meeting, where it hiked rates and stuck to its projection for two more hikes this year.
Thursday, April 6
Germany is to release figures on factory orders. The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting. Canada is to publish data on building permits. The U.S. is to produce the weekly report on jobless claims.
Friday, April 7 The UK is to release industry data on house price inflation as well as reports on manufacturing production and the trade balance. Canada is to publish its monthly employment report. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls.
ENERGY Oil futures dipped in early Asian trade on Monday on worries about global oversupply after a higher U.S. rig count pointed to rising U.S. shale production, while a stronger dollar also put pressure on crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 5 cents to $50.55 a barrel by 0012 GMT after settling 25 cents higher in the previous session. International benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 slipped 11 cents to $53.42 a barrel. The March contract closed the previous session down 13 cents at $52.83 a barrel. Both contracts posted their worst quarterly loss since late 2015 in the March quarter. U.S. futures fell nearly 6 percent from the previous quarter, while Brent lost 7 percent as rising inventory levels outpaced output cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members. Crude oil prices staged a three-day rally last week amid expectations members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members such as Russia would extend production cuts beyond June. But prices fell on Friday after energy services firm Baker Hughes said the U.S. rig count increased by 10 to 662 last week, making the first quarter the strongest for oil rig additions since mid-2011. The U.S. dollar index .DXY rose against a basket of currencies on Monday. A strong dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities including oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Iraq plans to increase its oil output capacity to 5 million barrels per day before the end of the year, but Baghdad has assured OPEC it will fully comply with the pact to cut oil supply, Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said on Sunday. oil shipped by state pipeline monopoly Transneft TRNF_p.MM to ports for export rose to 2.944 million barrels per day in March, or 12.452 million tonnes, from 2.819 million bpd in February. Oil futures settled higher for the fourth session in a row on Friday, extending a rally to the strongest level in more than three weeks amid optimism that OPEC will extend its production-cut deal beyond June. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for June delivery tacked on 40 cents, or around 0.8%, to
settle at $53.53 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark hit $53.77 earlier Friday, the most since March 9. London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of $2.73, or about 5.1%, on the week, the biggest weekly rise in four months. Elsewhere, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude May contract inched up 25 cents to end at $50.60 a barrel by close of trade. It touched its highest since March 8 at $50.85 earlier in the session. For the week, the U.S. benchmark rose $2.63, or 5.2%. Sentiment in the oil market improved this week in wake of increasingly supportive rhetoric from a number of OPEC nations willing to extend production cuts into the second half of 2017. OPEC agreed in November last year to curb its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day between January and June. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers have agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 barrels per day. In total, they agreed to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the first six months of the year, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels. A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will meet in late April to present its recommendation on the fate of the pact. A final decision on whether or not to extend the deal beyond June will be taken by the oil cartel on May 25. Oil has been under pressure in recent weeks amid concern that an ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production and swelling stockpiles in the U.S. could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Oil futures dipped on Monday as a higher U.S. rig count indicated rising shale output and stoked worries about global oversupply, while a stronger dollar also pressured prices. International benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 slipped 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $ 53.38 a barrel by 0440 GMT. The March contract closed the previous session down 13 cents at $ 52.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $50.52 a barrel after settling 25 cents higher in the previous session. Both contracts posted their worst quarterly loss since late 2015 in the March quarter. U.S. futures fell nearly 6 percent from the previous quarter, while Brent lost 7 percent as rising inventory levels outpaced output cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members. Crude prices staged a three-day rally last week amid expectations members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members such as Russia would extend production cuts beyond June. But prices fell on Friday after energy services firm Baker Hughes said the U.S. rig count increased by 10 to 662 last week, making the first quarter the strongest for oil rig additions since mid-2011. Oil was lower Friday on profit-taking as the focus turned to U.S. drilling activity figures. U.S. crude was off 29 cents, or 0.58%, at $50.06 at 07:00 ET. Brent crude shed 33 cents, or 0.62%, to $52.80. Baker Hughes rig count data are due out later in the session. Higher U.S. supply and inventories are putting a cap on oil's gains. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. There are expectations the accord could be extended beyond June. Chinese manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in close to five years, underpinning expectations of higher demand for oil. Oil remains on track to post losses of around 7% in the first quarter. The renewed strength of the dollar
Friday weakened demand for oil. Oil prices fell on Friday as traders took profits following three days of straight gains on the expectation that an OPEC-led crude supply cut that was initially supposed to only last for the first half of the year would be extended. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, were at $52.69 per barrel at 0655 GMT, down 27 cents, or 0.51 percent, from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 11 cents, 0.22 percent, at $50.24 a barrel. Despite Friday's dips, crude prices remain 3-4 percent higher than they were at the start of the three-day rally on Tuesday, and analysts said that the market was gradually tightening. "We expect that the market is currently under-supplied and that the draws in inventory are coming. Traders said there was a growing sense that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil production giant Russia would agree to continue their production cut deal seeking to drive prices higher. OPEC and nonOPEC producers including Russia agreed late last year to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in order to rein in a global supply overhang and prop up prices. Oil prices eased on Friday as traders took profits following three days of straight gains on the expectation that an OPEC-led crude supply cut that was initially supposed to only last for the first half of the year would be extended. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, were at $ 52.83 per barrel at 0134 GMT, down 13 cents from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 10 cents at $50.25 a barrel. Despite Friday's dips, crude prices remain over 4 percent higher than they were at the start of the three-day rally on Tuesday. "Oil looks to have found a range in the low $50s. Traders said there was a growing sense that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil production giant Russia would agree to continue their production cut deal seeking to drive prices higher. OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia agreed late last year to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in order to rein in a global supply overhang and prop up prices. But so far, alternative oil supplies, including from the United States where production is soaring, and doubts that Russia was complying with its promised cuts, have prevented the market from re-balancing. Still, over the past week, a growing consensus has emerged that the supply cut would be extended into the second half of the year and that Russia would increasingly comply. changed thoughts about Russia's role in the market reinforce... (the idea) that a deal between OPEC and Russia is in the offing. South Sudanese rebels said on Thursday they had freed three oil workers from Pakistan and India seized by their fighters earlier this month. The three had been released on the orders of the rebels' leader, former vice president Riek Machar, and were on their way to government areas, his SPLA-IO group said. The Pakistani national worked for DAR, a consortium including China National Petroleum Corporation, China's Sinopec and Malaysia's Petronas, in Upper Nile state. The two Indians working for South Sudan's pertoleum ministry were kidnapped in northeast Maiwut county. "People are in the process of taking them from our headquarters in Pagak to submit them to government," SPLA-IO deputy spokesman Lam Paul Gabriel said. There were no orders given in relation to locals who were seized alongside the foreigners and
they would continue to hold them, He did not say why they had been taken. But the rebels have accused foreign oil companies of funding the government and its military in the past. South Sudan, which split away from Sudan in 2011 after decades of conflict, has been mired in civil war since President Salva Kiir sacked Machar in 2013. The fighting has forced millions to flee their homes, split much of the population along ethnic lines and paralysed agriculture, leaving the country facing famine, according to the United Nations. The International Energy Agency does not expect a major increase in global oil prices despite efforts by OPEC and non- OPEC members to reduce output, its executive director Fatih Birol told Reuters. OPEC and 11 other producers including Russia agreed in December to cut their combined output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year in an effort to eradicate a stubborn supply glut and boost prices. That agreement, which provided an initial boost to crude prices, could be extended for six months, but Birol does not believe that prices would receive a significant boost. is a tremendous amount of stock in the markets and to expect a major increase in the price is not very realistic," he said, adding that downward price pressure will come from other producers. "If we see the prices go up as a result of any push from the producers ... we will see more oil coming to the market, not just from the U.S.; we will also see Brazilian and Canadian oil coming to the market." U.S. shale oil production using fracking technology has turned the world's largest oil consumer into an exporter of crude and products, while Canada is developing its vast oil sands deposits and Brazil is working on huge offshore fields. The IEA estimates that global oil demand will grow by 1.4 million bpd this year. Birol was in Delhi to announce 'Association' status for India with the IEA, which through its 29 members controls about 70 percent of world energy consumption. The IEA sees India as the most important driver of global energy demand growth in the years to come, with its oil consumption expected to rise to about 10 million bpd by 2040. U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected in the latest week, official data showed Wednesday. The EIA said crude inventories rose by 867,000 barrels after a rise of 4.954 mn barrels the previous week. Crude inventories were forecast to rise by 1.357 mn barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.747 mn barrels after a fall of 2.811 mn barrels the previous week. Gasoline inventories were expected to fall by 1.886 mn barrels. U.S. crude was up 1.43% at $49.06 after data release. Oil prices on Wednesday extended gains from the previous session, lifted by supply disruptions in Libya and expectations that an OPEC-led output reduction will be extended into the second half of the year. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, had risen 14 cents from their last close to $51.47 per barrel by 0127 GMT. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 20 cents at $48.57 a barrel. Both crude benchmarks rose by more than 1 percent the previous day. production from the western Libyan fields of Sharara and Wafa has been blocked by armed protesters, reducing output by 252,000 barrels per day , a source at the National Oil Corporation told Reuters late on Tuesday. along with the Iranian oil minister saying there is likely to be an extension to the production cut deal helped crude oil rally overnight. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with some other producers including Russia, have agreed to cut
production by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year in order to rein in a global fuel supply overhang and prop up prices. Ahead of the coming week significant events likely to affect the markets.
Tuesday, April 4 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.
Wednesday, April 5 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.
Thursday, April 6 The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.
Friday, April 7 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : BASE METAL GUIDE Trading Ideas : ZINC Zinc trading range for the day is 175-185.8. Zinc prices dropped as LME zinc finished the day down 3.1 percent at $ 2,770 due to concerns over failure in output cut by zinc smelters. Zinc prices standouts among a brightening outlook for base metals, with supply constraints and China-driven demand set to lift prices in coming months. Korea Zinc Inc, the world's third-largest zinc smelter, has agreed to take a 15 percent drop in annual processing fees for 2017.
COPPER Copper trading range for the day is 375-387.4. Copper slipped as the end of a strike at Peru's biggest copper mine dampened fears of reduced supply that had driven the metal higher this quarter. Chile's state copper company Codelco produced 1.83 million tonnes of copper in 2016, of which 1.71 million tonnes came from its wholly-owned. Freeport-McMoRan Inc's Indonesian unit is close to reaching a deal that would allow the copper producer to temporarily resume concentrate exports.
ALUMINIUM Aluminium trading range for the day is 125.7-128.3. Aluminium dropped on profit booking tracking LME prices closed down 0.5 percent at $1,962.50 a tonne, but still posted its biggest quarterly gain in 6-1/2 years. LME stocks of aluminum sank below the 2 million-tonne level earlier in month and at current 1,886,400 tonnes are at their lowest since December 2008. Japan's quarterly premiums, which act as a benchmark across much of the Asian region, are in part a reflection of local market conditions
BASE METAL
COPPER ( 29 - March - 2017 ) Copper futures traded 0.49 per cent lower at Rs 383.25 today as speculators reduced their exposure at prevailing levels. In futures trading at Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in April fell Rs 1.90, or 0.49 per cent, at Rs 383.25 per kg in a business turnover of 803 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month June was down Rs 1.80, or 0.46 per cent, at Rs. 386.90 per kg in 12 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to profit-booking by speculators who scaled down their positions at the existing levels.
NICKEL ( 29 - March - 2017 ) Amid muted demand at the domestic spot market, nickel prices fell 0.74 per cent to Rs 643.30 per kg in futures trade today as participants cut down their bets. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in the current month was trading lower by Rs 4.80, or 0.74 per cent, to Rs 643.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 800 lots. The metal for delivery in April also fell by Rs 4.40, or 0.67 per cent, to Rs 649.90 per
kg in a turnover of 293 lots. Analysts said the fall is mostly in line with a weakening trend in the base metals at the domestic spot markets due to slack demand from consuming industries, particularly from alloy-makers.
ZINC ( 29 - March - 2017 ) Zinc futures traded 0.49 per cent lower at Rs 181.90 per kg today as speculators trimmed positions ahead of the monthly expiry. Zinc for delivery in the current month declined by 90 paise, or 0.49 per cent, to Rs 181.90 per kg at Multi Commodity Exchange, clocking a business turnover of 506 lots. The metal for delivery in April softened by 85 paise, or 0.46 per cent, at Rs 182.45 per kg in 114 lots. Analysts said the weakness in zinc in futures trade was mostly attributed to reduced positions of speculators ahead of the monthly expiry amid a weak trend at the domestic spot markets due to low demand.
NICKEL ( 28 - March - 2017 ) Nickel prices gained 0.36 per cent to Rs 639.40 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions, supported by rising demand from alloy-makers in the spot market even as base metals retreated overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in current month moved up by Rs 2.30, or 0.36 per cent, to Rs 639.40 per kg in a business turnover of 466 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 2, or 0.31 per cent, to Rs 646.20 per kg in a business turnover of 57 lots. Analysts said speculators enlarged positions on a firming trend at the domestic spot markets on better demand from consuming industries, which mainly influenced nickel prices in futures trade.
COPPER ( 28 - March - 2017 ) Copper futures traded 0.08 per cent lower at Rs 382.75 today on speculators reducing their positions amid weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month June fell by 30 paise, or 0.08 per cent at Rs 382.75 per kg, in a business turnover of one lot. Similarly, the metal for delivery in April was down by 15 paise, or 0.04 per cent, at Rs 378.80 per kg in 310 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to weak cues from global market as base metals sank after US President Donald Trump's failure to pass signature reform of health care legislation raised questions about his administration's ability to deliver on other promises including infrastructure. Globally, three-month copper dropped by as much as USD 84 to USD 5,720 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange with losses also being driven by prospects in resumption of output from BHP Billiton Ltd's Escondida mine in Chile after a strike.
LEAD - ( 28 - March - 2017 ) Lead eased 0.30 per cent to Rs 149.15 per kg in futures trade today after participants cut down bets largely in sync with a weak trend at the domestic spot markets due to muted demand and weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, the March contract of lead fell by 45 paise, or 0.30 per cent, to Rs 149.15 per
kg in a business turnover of six lots. The March contract of the metal declined by 40 paise, or 0.27 per cent, to Rs 148.70 per kg in 151 lots. Marketmen said the fall in lead futures was due to a subdued demand from battery-makers at domestic markets and a weakening trend in base metals in the global markets.
NICKEL ( 03 - March - 2017 ) Nickel prices edged up by 0.05 per cent to Rs 651.30 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in demand from alloy-makers in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in April edged higher by 30 paise, or 0.05 per cent to Rs 651.30 per kg in business turnover of 1,428 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in May contracts was trading higher by 20 paise, or 0.03 per cent to Rs 657.70 per kg in 23 lots. Analysts said speculators created fresh positions due to pick up in demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot markets, which mainly influenced nickel prices in futures trade.
✍ COPPER ( 03 - March - 2017 ) Copper prices fell by 0.35 per cent to Rs 379.40 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down their positions amid subdued demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in April fell by Rs 1.35, or 0.35 per cent to Rs 379.40 per kg in business turnover of 782 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month June contracts was trading lower by Rs 1.30, or 0.34 per cent to Rs 383.95 per kg in business turnover of 18 lots. Marketmen attributed the fall in copper prices at futures trade to a weak demand from consuming industries at the domestic markets.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF AGRI MARKET ✍ RAPE SEED Fundamental Updates of Agri Market ✍ CRUDE PALM OIL (29 - March - 2017) Crude palm oil prices rose further by 0.17 per cent to Rs 537.80 per 10 kg in futures market today as participants engaged in enlarging their positions amid rising demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in March edged up by 90 paise, or 0.17 per cent to Rs 537.80 per 10 kg in business turnover of 20 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders following strong demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices up at futures trade.
✍ REFINED SOYA OIL (29 - March - 2017)
Refined soya oil prices drifted lower by 0.43 per cent to Rs 640.80 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators booked profits amid easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in April month declined by Rs 2.75, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 640.80 per 10 kg with an open interest of 38,880 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in May month contracts shed Rs 2.20, or 0.35 per cent to Rs 629.60 per 10 kg in 53,680 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by participants at existing level, fall in demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies from producing belts, mainly influenced refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
� MENTHA OIL (29 - March - 2017) Amid pick up in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market against restricted arrivals from producing regions, mentha oil prices were up by 0.57 per cent to Rs 978 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in March went up by Rs 5.50, or 0.57 per cent to Rs 978 per kg in business turnover of 64 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in April month contracts was trading higher by Rs 5.10, or 0.52 per cent to Rs 988.60 per kg in 127 lots. Marketmen said fresh positions built up by traders due to uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot markets against restricted supplies from Chandausi, led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.
� CARDAMOM ( 28 - April - 2017 ) Cardamom prices inched up by 0.14 per cent to Rs 1,383 per kg in futures trading today as speculators built up fresh positions on the back of pick up in demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in May edged up by Rs 2, or 0.14 per cent to Rs 1383 per kg in business turnover of 31 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants due to uptick in demand in the spot market, mainly attributed the rise in cardamom prices at futures trade.
� MENTHA OIL ( 28 - March - 2017 ) Mentha oil prices eased by 0.23 per cent to Rs 966 per kg in futures market today as speculators trimmed positions, driven by muted demand from consuming industries in spot market against adequate stocks. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in March fell by Rs 2.20, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 966 per kg in business turnover of 20 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in April contracts shed Rs 1.30, or 0.13 per cent to Rs 977 per kg in 56 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants amid tepid demand from consuming industries in spot market against ample stocks position, mainly led to decline in mentha oil prices at futures trade.
✍ CRUDE PALM OIL ( 28 - March - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices went up by 0.41 per cent to Rs 511.90 per 10 kg in futures trading today as participants indulged in creating fresh positions after spot demand picked up. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in April moved up by Rs 2.10, or 0.41 per cent, to Rs 511.90 per 10 kg in business turnover of 59 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in March contracts was trading higher by Rs 1.70, or 0.32 per cent to Rs 533 per 10 kg in one lot. Analysts said that fresh positions built-up by traders due to pick up in the spot market against restricted supplies from producing regions mainly led to rise in crude palm oil prices at futures trade. ✍ JEERA ( 27 - March - 2017 ) Jeera prices have firmed up with strong export demand and a likely shortfall in production. Futures prices have jumped by 8% in a month on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange. It hit the upper circuit and closed at a two-month high on Thursday, when futures for April delivery rose 3.98% to . 179.05 per kg. On Friday, April futures closed at Rs 179.85 per kg. With harvest getting over in the main growing areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan, an anticipated decline in production is spurring prices. “There is intense speculative in the exchange. It is also close to the fiscal year ending. There is good export demand with China being the active buyer," said Shailesh Shah, director of Jabs International, a major exporter. The carryover stock in the country is also low, he said. ✍ COTTON ( 31 - March - 2017 ) India's 2016-17 cotton imports are set to jump more than a third from a year ago to a record 3 million bales as the rupee's rise makes buying overseas cheaper, senior industry officials and executives said. The strong rupee - now at its highest level in 18 months - has also braked cotton exports from the world's biggest producer of the fibre, a trend that has helped rival suppliers in Brazil, the United States and some African countries boost their own exports. Usually (textile) mills in southern India import cotton," said K. Selvaraju, secretary general of the Southern India Mills' Association, in a recent interview. "This year mills from even the north are importing. Overseas supplies have become competitive due to the strong rupee." India's currency has risen 4.8 percent so far in 2017 versus the U.S dollar. Indian mills have contracted to import around 1.5 million bales and another 1.5 million bales will be imported by end of the current crop year, ending Sept. 30.
✍ CARDAMOM ( 03 - march - 2017 ) Cardamom prices were trading up by 0.63 per cent at Rs 1,312 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged their positions amid an upsurge in physical demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight supplies from major producing regions also supported the upside in cardamom prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in May rose by Rs 8.20, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 1,312 per
kg, with a trading volume of 14 lots. Similarly, spice for delivery this month was up by Rs 1.60, or 0.11 per cent, to Rs 1,402 per kg in 20 lots. Traders said widening of positions by participants, driven by surge in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from producing regions, mainly kept cardamom prices higher at futures trade.
� REFINED SOYA ( 03 - April - 2017) Amid pick up in domestic demand against restricted supplies from producing regions, refined soya oil prices were up by 0.39 per cent to Rs 625.55 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in May rose by Rs 2.45, or 0.39 per cent, to Rs 625.55 per 10 kg, with an open interest of 53,800 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in April moved up by Rs 2.40, or 0.38 per cent, to Rs 637.50 per 10 kg in 34,830 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders following pick up in demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing belts, mainly attributed the rise in refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
� MENTHA OIL ( 03 - April - 2017) Mentha oil prices were up 0.68 per cent to Rs 1,000.40 per kg in futures market today as participants raised their holdings on the back of pick-up in spot demand from consuming industries. Besides, tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also provided support to mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery May month rose Rs 6.80, or 0.68 per cent, to Rs 1,000.40 per kg, clocking a business volume of 14 lots. The oil for delivery this month traded higher by Rs 6.10, or 0.61 per cent, to Rs 999 per kg, with a trading volume of 109 lots. Analysts said raising of bets by speculators, driven by rising demand from consuming industries in the spot markets against restricted supplies from Chandausi led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.
� CRUDE PALM OIL ( 03 - April - 2017) Crude palm oil prices were up by 0.31 per cent to Rs 514.30 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders created fresh positions, supported by pick-up in demand at the spot market. Besides, a firming trend in overseas markets too fuelled the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery this month rose by Rs 1.60 or 0.31 per cent, to Rs 514.30 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 215 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery May month went up by Rs 1.20 or 0.24 per cent to Rs 495 per 10 kg in 47 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants driven by pick-up in demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil
prices higher at futures trade.
� SUGAR ( 01 - April - 2017 ) Sugar futures witnessed the biggest weekly gain in almost three months on reports of lower production and expectation of tight balance sheet towards end of the current sugar season. The sugar season begins in October and lasts until September the following year. The most active May delivery contract on NCDEX rose 1.83% during the week (March 27 -March 31) to Rs. 3,780 a quintal on Friday. Weekly gain of more than 1.80% was last seen during the first week of January. During the first quarter of 2017, sugar futures on NCDEX touched it’s all time high during the February but the prices corrected on reports of higher stocks with the sugar mills coupled with reports of drop in sugar sale as compared to last year. The government had appealed sugar millers across the country to keep supplies adequate. NCDEX sugar had hit lowest level in 2017 at Rs. 3,590 per quintal during second week of March and recovered about 5% in a fortnight on expectation of lower stock levels as there is possibility of increase the summer demand from the bulk and industrial buyers when market is expecting lower production for the second successive year compared to its consumption.
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