✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIU 31-OCT-2016 116 M
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
106
30-NOV-2016 347
342
337
336
333
331
328
324
319
CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3425
3348
3271
3241
3194
3164
3117
3040
2963
GOLD
05-DEC-2016 32594 32024 31454 31098 30884 30528 30314 29744
29174
LEAD
31-OCT-2016 158
152
146
144
140
138
134
128
122
NATURAL 26-OCT-2015 213 GAS
207
201
198
195
192
189
184
178
747
725
714
703
692
681
659
637
COPPER
EXPIRY
NICKEL
31-OCT-2016 769
SILVER
05-DEC-2016 49896 48623 47350 46538 46077 45265 44804 43531
ZINC
31-OCT-2016 167
164
161
159
158
156
155
152
42258 149
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
R4
R3
R2
ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016
122
118
114
113
110
109
106
102
98
COPPER
30-NOV-2016
353
346
339
336
332
329
325
318
311
CRUDE OIL
19-OCT-2016
3973
3693
3413
3312
3133
3032
2853
2573
2293
GOLD
05-DEC-2016 32961 32281 31601 31171 30921 30491 30241 29561
28881
LEAD
31-OCT-2016
185
169
153
147
137
131
121
105
89
NATURALGA 26-OCT-2015 S 31-OCT-2016 NICKEL
233
221
209
202
197
190
185
173
161
802
770
738
720
706
688
674
642
610
SILVER ZINC
EXPIRY
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
05-DEC-2016 50915 49260 47605 46665 45950 45010 44295 42640 31-OCT2016
183
174
165
161
156
152
147
138
Monday, 3 October 2016
S4
40985 129
WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 3213 TGT 3291 SL 3139 BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31153 TGT 31456 SL 30844 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31402 TGT 31709 SL 31098 - NOT EXECUTED ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP 67
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT2016 67.75 67.55 67.35 67.15
66.80 66.60 66.40
66.20
EURINR
26-OCT2016 75.95 75.75 75.55 75.35 75.15 74.95 74.75 74.55
74.30
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
86.80 86.60
86.40
JPYINR
26-OCT2016 67.10 66.90 66.70 66.50 66.30 66.10 65.90 65.70
65.50
88 87.80 87.60 87.40 87.20
87
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT2016 68.10 67.80 67.50 67.20
67
66.70 66.40 66.10
65.80
EURINR
26-OCT2016 76.20 75.95 75.65 75.35
75
74.70 74.40 74.10
73.80
GBPINR
26-OCT2016 88.30
87.70 87.40 87.10 86.80 86.50 86.20
85.90
JPYINR
26-OCT2016 67.50 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30
88
66
65.70 65.40
WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 65.70 TGT 65 SL 66.40 SELL USDINR OCT BELOW 75.90 TGT 75.20 SL 76.50
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY EURINR OCT ABOVE 75.63 TGT 76.26 SL 74.98 - NOT EXECUTED SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 66.10 TGT 65.40 SL 66.80 - MADE LOW OF 65.72
65.10
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-NOV-2016
667
663 659 657
655
653
651
647
643
SYBEANIDR
18-NOV-2016
3395 3337 3279 3257 3221
3199
3163
3105
3047
RMSEED
18-NOV-2016
4748 4683 4618 4595 4553
4530
4488
4423
4358
JEERAUNJHA
18-NOV-2016 17665 1754 1741 1735 17290 17230 0 5 5
17165 17040
16915
GUARSEED10
18-NOV-2016
3786 3708 3630 3594 3552
3516
3474
3396
3318
TMC
18-NOV-2016
7490 7394 7298 7242 7202
7146
7106
7010
6914
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
696
683
670
662
657
649
644
631
618
SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3472 3385 3298 3267 3211
3180
3124
3037
2950
18-NOV-2016 5295 5066 4837 4704 4608
4475
4379
4150
3921
JEERAUNJH 18-NOV-2016 18765 18285 1780 17550 17325 17070 16845 16365 5 A
15885
GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 4100 3926 3752 3655 3578
3481
3404
3230
3056
18-NOV-2016 8289 7895 7501 7343 7101
6949
6713
6319
5925
DATE SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016
RMSEED
TMC
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17670 TGT 18093 SL 17273 BUY GUARSEED NOV ABOVE 3582 TGT 3659 SL 3508 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 17600 TGT 18000 SL 17200 - NOT EXECUTED
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Gold pared early gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar recovered and global stocks rallied after oil producers agreed to curb output. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. shares pulled regional stock markets higher on Thursday. ‘ Once again struggled to find direction in low volumes, with regional names happy to sit on the sidelines as gold threatens a test of the 100-day moving average around $ 1,310," "With some time still to pass until the currently expected U.S. Federal reserve rate rise in December, gold looks likely to hold rangebound over the short term." Division between Federal Reserve policy makers on when to raise U.S. interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by officials from the central bank. gold and dollar markets are currently without very strong direction. The mixed views from U.S. Fed officials have weakened their credibility and the market has stopped buying their comments," Spot gold XAU= was steady at $1,320.62 an ounce by 0706 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were up nearly 0.1 percent at $1,324.30 an ounce. Gold prices hit a one-week low on Wednesday, as the dollar firmed and investors assessed Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before a Congressional committee. The Federal Reserve is considering changing the annual stress tests it gives to U.S. banks to see if they can withstand a massive financial crisis, Yellen said. The Fed's chair did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in her prepared remarks. gold XAU= fell 0.4 percent to $1,322.95 an ounce by 1409 GMT. It fell nearly one percent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day loss in one month on a higher appetite for risk. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 eased 0.3 percent to $1,326.20 an ounce. Gold's next technical support level stands at $ 1,320, while the closest resistance is $ 1,350, MKS SA head of trading Afshin Nabavi said. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank could keep rates low for a while as inflation remains weak. markets will also monitor Cleveland Fed President Mester and Kansas City Fed President George's speeches on the economy and monetary policy at separate events. "It is probably going to be a case of watching out for these Fed officials' comments," We also have Friday's U.S. inflation reading, which is the bank's preferred measure of inflation and if that shows tick up towards the 2 percent target, it would give more
confidence to markets that the Fed will move to raise rates in December." Butler added that traders were also watching a meeting of oil producers in Algiers this week to see if an agreement could be reached to ease a global glut of crude. Gold is often seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation. The dollar .DXY was up 0.1 percent against a basket of six major currencies, making gold more expensive for foreign currency holders. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, fell 0.22 percent to 949.14 tonnes on Tuesday. Gold edged up on Thursday as the US dollar weakened in the wake of an oil producer agreement to curb output. Division between Federal Reserve policymakers on when to raise US interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by officials from the central bank. "The gold and dollar markets are currently without very strong direction. The mixed views from US Fed officials have weakened their credibility and the market has stopped buying on their comments," said Jiang Shu, chief analyst at Shandong Gold Group. "For now, we can see gold move in the band of $1,300 to $1,350." Spot gold had risen 0.3 per cent to $ 1,325 an ounce by 0345 GMT. US gold futures were up 0.4 per cent at $ 1,328.60 an ounce. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. Oil futures extended gains on Thursday after rising nearly 6 percent the day before on the surprise OPEC move. "Further oil price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market, especially if other nonoil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices, such as the GSCI, rise," The gold market will absorb another raft of US., European and Japanese economic data on Thursday, he said. US GDP numbers are due, as well as European Union business confidence data."We think prices may stay on the defensive in the absence of new developments, unless oil prices continue to rise enough to lend support to bullion." The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as much as 0.1 per cent to 95.338 Silver was up 0.4 percent at $19.24 an ounce. Platinum and palladium rose over 1 per cent to $1,033.99 and $717 respectively. Palladium earlier touched its highest in over seven weeks at $721.30. Gold prices inched up during Europe's session on Thursday, but remained near a oneweek low as market players looked ahead to more U.S. economic data for clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike. Comments from a barrage of Federal Reserve officials, including the Fed chair, later in the session will also be in focus. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange
tacked on $ 1.60, or 0.12%, to $ 1,325.30 a troy ounce by 4:20AM ET. On Wednesday, prices fell to $ 1,321.10, a level not seen since September 21. Data due on Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, the final look at second-quarter GDP and the trade deficit, all at 8:30 AM ET. Pending home sales are reported at 10:00AM ET. A handful of Fed policymakers are also due to make public appearances on Thursday that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are all scheduled to speak during the day.
� ENERGY Oil futures retreated on Thursday as the market grew more sceptical on how OPEC would implement a plan to curb oil output, a day after the group agreed to limit production. "Further oil price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market, especially if other non-oil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices rise," HSBC analyst James Steel said in a note. Goldman Sachs said the deal reached by OPEC crude producers on Wednesday to curb output should add $ 7 to $ 10 to oil prices in the first half of next year. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Wednesday to modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since 2008, with group leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid mounting pressure from low oil prices. "Strict implementation of today's deal in 2017 would represent 480,000 to 980,000 barrels per day less output," Goldman analysts said in a note dated Wednesday. "Longer term, we remain sceptical on the implementation of the proposed quotas, if ratified," the analysts said. Still, the bank reiterated its year-end and 2017 oil price forecasts, given the uncertainty of the OPEC proposal. Goldman kept its end-2016 forecast for US West Texas Intermediate crude at $ 43 per barrel and its 2017 forecast at $ 53 per barrel. WTI was trading around $ 47 a barrel, after gaining more than five per cent on Wednesday on OPEC's planned output cut. "If this proposed cut is strictly enforced and supports prices, we would expect it to prove self-defeating medium term with a large drilling response around the world," WTI oil prices rose by 8.5 percent last week to close at $48.2 per barrel with Brent nearing $50 a barrel on optimism over OPEC's first planned output cut in eight years, although gains were limited as some analysts doubted the reduction would be enough to make a substantial dent in the global crude glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on
Wednesday to cut output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day from around 33.5 million bpd, estimated by Reuters to be the output level in August. OPEC said other details will be known at its policy meeting in November, leaving unanswered when the agreement will come into effect, what new quotas for member countries will be and for what periods, and how compliance will be verified. Key members such as Saudi Arabia and Iran resisted, becoming more protective of individual market share even though the rout hurt the group's oil-dependent economies. The deal in Algiers follows failed talks in Qatar in April for a production freeze. Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012. On the MCX, oil prices rose by 8 percent to close at Rs.3212 per barrel. ✍ BASE METAL LME Copper prices rose 0.2 percent last week to $4865/tonne as the 14-member OPEC agreed to cut production for the first time since 2008, proposing new production levels at 32.5 million to 33 millionbarrels a day, a 700,000 drop on August production levels at 33.24 million barrels a day. Besides, comments from Chilean President Michelle Bachelet said the country's budgeted spending will rise 2.7 percent in 2017 compared with this year, one of the lowest rates of growth since the 1990s, as a sluggish economy has crimped income. Also, Industrial profit growth in China surged 19.5 percent to 534.8 billion Yuan in August to the highest level since 2013 helped by rising sales, higher prices and lower costs, shown recent signs of stabilization. However, stock additions at LME’s South East Asian warehouses of Gwangyang, Klang and Busan restricted sharp upside. MCX copper prices traded higher by 0.2 percent to close at Rs.328.6 per kg on Friday. The Engineering Export Promotion Council of India has opposed extension of minimum import price on steel as it said the non-tariff barrier on crucial inputs was resulting in an inversion of duty with imports of finished goods increasing at a faster pace than the raw material. “Any inversion in duty at this stage would be a big setback to Make in India where the entire focus is on taking the country several notches up on the value and technology chain so that we become a global factory,” said EEPC India Chairman T S Bhasin. Imports for finished goods in the form of products of steel and iron increased at up to 51 per cent between June and August this year, EEPC India said in a statement. On the other hand, imports for the raw material by way of steel and iron used purely for raw material dropped between June and August. On August 4, Directorate General of Foreign Trade extended the minimum import price on 66 steel products till October 4. The MIP is in the range of $341-$752 per tonne. The government had earlier levied MIP
on 173 steel products ranging from $341 to $752 per tonne on February 5, which was valid for six months. While the measure has led to curtailment of cheaper imports to some extent, it has also increased idling capacities of small steel manufacturers and downstream industry, EEPC said. Domestic steel industry remains engaged in mulling the quantum of October price hike, demand for the commodity is expected to catch pace in coming months, thanks to a rise in construction activity.“Second half of this year has seen demand rising for steel as government projects are likely to take-off,” said Sanak Mishra, secretary general at Indian Steel Association . Domestic demand for steel is expected to grow 5.3 per cent in the current fiscal to 85.8 million tonne as consumption from construction and capital goods is seen higher, supported by higher infrastructure spending, ISA has said in its recent report. In addition, a pick-up in rural income due to good monsoon and government initiatives is expected to help in creating sustainable demand in the region. Railways and intermediate sectors are also expected to witness growth. “Government initiatives by way of increments to its employees and public sector staff is likely to boost automotive and consumer durables demand in the current financial year,” said ISA in its short-term domestic steel demand outlook.The association sees consistent rise in domestic demand for the next eight quarters, taking 2017-18 demand to 90.6 million tonne, achieving a growth of 5.6 per cent from previous year. Lead prices drifted lower by 0.24 per cent to Rs. 126.40 per kg in futures trade today as traders trimmed their positions amid sluggish demand from battery-makers in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in September declined by 30 paise or 0.24 per cent to Rs 126.40 per kg in business turnover of 370 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in October contracts traded lower by a similar margin to Rs 127.05 per kg in 3 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand from battery-makers in the spot market led to decline in lead prices at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean, farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a
quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year. As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year. One of the largest traders in the sugar market said world sugar output in the next crop season will trail demand by more than previously forecast as adverse growing conditions threaten yields in Brazil and India, the biggest growers. The deficit in the 2016-17 season, which starts October 1 in most countries, will be 4 million metric tons, Paris-based Sucden & Denrees said Thursday, up from a July projection of 3 million. India’s crop will drop by about 2 million tons to 23.2 million, creating a domestic shortfall of 2.7 million that may spur the country to import, Sucden said in a report. While Brazil’s Center-South region could produce a record 35.4 million tons, according to the trader, some forecasters point to a rainy October curbing the sucrose content of the sugar-cane. That could collapse yields, raising concern about how much sugar-cane is available for processing, anddelay the start of next year’s harvest. Harsh weather in the country’s northeastern sections “means more downside may be on the horizon there.” “As always, weather conditions going forward can influence sugar production and can therefore bring some volatility,” Sucden said. “Also, while funds posted a new record long recently and seem to be willing to persist on the long side, it cannot be ruled out that a macro event might, at some point, trigger a sell-off.” Subdued export demand, rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and expected good crop from Madhya Pradesh have pulled down prices of chilli, which had touched a new peak this year. The prices of the largest exported spice from India have dropped by 10% to 15% and the falling trend may continue in the coming weeks. The chilli prices are currently hovering in the range of Rs 110 to Rs 125 per kg. “The high prices in the last few months had impacted exports. Good harvest in China also led to sluggish purchase by the country. Now the export demand has thinned considerably,” said AP Murugan, director of Paprika Oleos , a major exporter. At present, chilli exports are limited to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in small quantities. The weak export trend along with anticipated good crop from Madhya Pradesh could trigger a downward push in the prices, according to the traders. Last year, Madhya Pradesh’s chilli crop fell short because of pest problems. Indian chilli exports had touched close to Rs 4,000 crore in 2015-16, a record.
Exactly a year after strengthening regulation of the 13-year-old commodity derivatives market, the Securities and Exchange Board of India has taken the first steps towards its growth by allowing exchanges like MCX and NCDEX to launch options in commodities. Also, it has expanded the list of notified commodities that exchanges can launch by adding to it eggs, diamonds, skimmed milk powder, tea, cocoa, pig iron, biofuels and brass. ET had reported in its edition of September 27 that Sebi would approve the launch of the options this week. On July 1, this paper was the first to report that the regulator was considering a diamond contract. Sebi will spell out the details of the type of options and the products on which they can be launched in due course. An advisory committee constituted by Sebi after erstwhile commodity regulator FMC was merged with it on September 29 last year had recommended launch of gold and refined soya oil options initially. The domestic sugar prices have remained firm and increased from around Rs. 31,500/MT in March 2016 to Rs. 36,000/MT in August 2016 and continue to hover around the same price in September 2016, supported by an expected decline in the sugar production during sugar year 2017 , actual decline in the domestic sugar stocks during SY2016, and also a global sugar deficit scenario, which drove up international sugar prices. Further, the domestic sugar prices are likely to remain firm in the next three to four quarters, given the tight domestic situation. Mr. Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Vice-President, ICRA, said: “While the Government implemented stock holding limits in September 2016, this hasn’t resulted in any significant impact on domestic sugar prices. Sugar prices are expected to remain firm in the near term in spite of this, given the tight stock position. However, imposition of export duty and stock holding limit measures may dampen prospects of a further significant price rise. In the next 3-4 quarters, any further increase from the current levels would depend upon the following factors: expectations of sugar production during SY2017, sugar mills’ own actions on supplies depending upon their inventory-holding capacity, and the Government action on price control measures.” Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean, farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and
arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year. As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year.
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