Commodity research report 05 february 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD. Monday, February 5, 2018

MCX Market Wrap-up

Aluminum

28-Feb-18

Previous Close 141.7

Copper

28-Feb-18

451.85

456.5

460.7

445.3

452.75

0.20%

-0.10%

33.08%

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4190

4210

4271

4063

4186

-0.10%

2.56%

16.36%

Gold

5-Apr-18

30275

30051

30639

29883

30336

0.20%

-8.38%

564.30%

Lead

28-Feb-18

165

165.6

169

164.85

165

0.00%

8.16%

1210.52%

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

200.1

199.5

208

182.4

184.9

-8.22%

51.75%

49.15%

Nickel

28-Feb-18

870.3

873.9

897.9

847.6

866.8

-0.40%

-49.97%

766.78%

Silver

5-Mar-18

39960

39850

38475

38651

-3.39%

22.76%

32.42%

Zinc

28-Feb-18

220.65

223

229.6

223

226.4

2.54%

-27.75%

735.47%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

143.55

144.15

139.4

141.7

Change in Change in OI Change in Price (in %) (in %) Volume (in %) 0.00% -20.95% 264.13%

NCDEX Market Wrap-up

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

Previous Close 4128

Chana

20-Mar-18

3717

3743

3919

3711

3803

2.26%

9.32%

9.84%

Dhaniya Cottonseed Oil Cake

20-Apr-18

5926

5950

5980

5734

5809

-2.01%

-1.12%

38.86%

20-Feb-18

1672.5

1679.5

1764

1655

1754.5

4.67%

18.61%

-12.52%

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

9992

10192

10468

9725

10393

3.86%

5.14%

-53.79%

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

4620.5

4680

4737

4535

4705

1.80%

13.78%

-60.84%

Jeera

20-Mar-18

16430

16410

16730

16260

16590

0.96%

7.53%

37.75%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

974.5

970

992.5

963

980

0.56%

-11.82%

-31.97%

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4121

4169

4226

4121

4150

0.70%

7.40%

-26.64%

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

747

751

754.4

742

745.95

-0.14%

15.93%

-72.28%

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

3665

3680

3849

3609

3626

-1.08%

-6.58%

-36.35%

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7356

7322

7452

7230

7356

0.00%

210.97%

-74.82%

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1504.5

1510

1603

1501

1571.7

4.28%

3.11%

32.90%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

4150

4348

4137

4251

Change in Price (in %) 2.89%

Change in Change in OI (in %) Volume (in %) 13.85% 35.48%

Currency Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

USDINR

26-Feb-18

63.7525

63.8000

64.3900

63.6875

64.2425

0.77%

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

91.0025

90.3700

91.8675

89.5200

91.435

0.48%

EURINR

26-Feb-18

79.2425

79.1000

80.5350

79.0350

80.3475

1.39%

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

58.5200

58.6000

58.9275

58.3000

58.0575

-0.79%

Currency Pair

Continued……

International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

LME

2256.5

2261.5

2269.75

2190.25

2213

-1.93%

Copper

COMEX

3.183

3.201

3.224

3.152

3.182

-0.03%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

66.14

66.2

66.46

63.67

65.07

-1.62%

Gold

COMEX

1352.1

1349

1354.3

1330.1

1335.7

-1.21%

Lead

LME

2605.5

2610

2684.75

2852.25

2669

2.44%

NYMEX

3.505

3.078

3.258

2.837

2.863

-18.32%

Nickel

LME

13632.5

13685

14052.5

13190

13512.5

-0.88%

Silver

COMEX

17.385

17.42

17.47

16.52

16.555

-4.77%

Zinc

LME

3481.75

3511.5

3583.25

3484.5

3511.5

0.85%

Commodity Aluminum

Natural Gas

LME Inventory Update Commodity

Closing (As on 26th Jan 18) in Tonnes

Closing (As on 19th Jan 17) in Tonnes

% Change

Copper

304675

299600

1.69%

Nickel

355266

362058

-1.88%

Lead

133250

138050

-3.48%

Zinc

170700

179450

-4.88%

Aluminium

1080550

1086575

-0.55%

Continued…….

Upcoming Economic Events Calender Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Monday, February 5, 2018 7:15

CNY

Caixin Services PMI (Jan)

53.9

15:00

GBP

Services PMI (Jan)

20:15

USD

Markit Composite PMI (Jan)

53.8

20:15

USD

Services PMI (Jan)

53.3

20:30

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan)

56.3

54.3

54.2

Tuesday, February 6, 2018 5:31

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)

0.60%

19:00

USD

Trade Balance (Dec)

-52.00B

-50.50B

20:30

USD

JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)

6.038M

5.879M

3.30%

2.70%

Wednesday, February 7, 2018 14:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jan)

14:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jan)

-0.60%

21:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

6.776M

Thursday, February 1, 2018 5:31

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (Jan)

10:34

CNY

Trade Balance (USD) (Jan)

54.00B

54.69B

10:35

CNY

Exports (YoY) (Jan)

9.50%

10.90%

10:35

CNY

Imports (YoY) (Jan)

10.00%

4.50%

17:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Letter

17:30

GBP

BoE Inflation Report

17:30

GBP

BoE QE Total (Feb)

435B

17:30

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)

0.50%

18:30

USD

FOMC Member Harker Speaks

19:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

232K

230K

19:30

USD

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks Friday, February 9, 2018

7:00

CNY

CPI (MoM) (Jan)

0.60%

0.30%

7:00

CNY

CPI (YoY) (Jan)

1.50%

1.80%

7:00

CNY

PPI (YoY) (Jan)

4.40%

4.90%

15:00

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

-0.90%

0.40%

15:00

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)

0.30%

0.40%

15:00

GBP

Trade Balance (Dec)

-11.60B

-12.23B

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

26-Feb-18

66.0000

65.0000

64.0000

63.0000

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

96.0000

93.0000

92.0000

91.0000

90.0000

89.0000

86.0000

EURINR

26-Feb-18

83.0000

81.0000

80.0000

79.0000

78.0000

77.0000

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

60.0000

59.0000

58.0000

57.0000

MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

31-Jan-18

151.00

147.00

144.00

142.00

139.00

137.00

132.00

Copper

28-Feb-18

484

468

461

453

445

438.00

422.00

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4589

4381

4284

4173

4076

3965

3757

Gold

5-Feb-18

31798

31042

30689

30286

29933

29530

28774

Lead

31-Jan-18

175

170

168

166

164

162.00

158.00

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

243

217

201

192

176

166.00

141.00

Nickel

31-Jan-18

971

921

894

871

844

820

770

Silver

5-Mar-18

41742

40367

39509

38992

38134

37617

36242

Zinc

31-Jan-18

240

233

230

226

223

220.00

213.00

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

4667

4456

4354

4245

4143

4034

3823

Chana

20-Mar-18

4227

4019

3911

3811

3703

3603

3395

Dhaniya

20-Apr-18

6333

6087

5948

5841

5702

5595

5349

Cotton Seed Oilcake

20-Feb-18

1943

1834

1794

1725

1685

1616

1507

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

11681

10938

10666

10195

9923

9452

8709

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

5063

4861

4783

4659

4581

4457

4255

Jeera

20-Mar-18

17467

16997

16793

16527

16323

16057

15587

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1038

1008

994

979

965

949

920

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4376

4271

4210

4166

4105

4061

3956

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

772

760

753

747

741

735

723

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

4175

3935

3780

3695

3540

3455

3215

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7790

7568

7462

7346

7240

7124

6902

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1763

1661

1616

1559

1514

1457

1355

BULLION Gold futures fell over one percent in American trade as the dollar index gained ground following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy and ahead of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams' speech later today. The Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to hold overnight interest unchanged at the range of 1.25% to 1.50% at the January 30-31 meeting matching analysts' expectations. This was current chair Janet Yellen's last meeting with her term ending next month and getting replaced by Jerome Powell with markets looking forward to the March 20-21 policy meeting the first under the new chair to take clues about his views on monetary policy and interest rates.

BASE METALS Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are at first sight looking quite mixed this morning Friday February 2,with copper and lead in positive territory tin unchanged and aluminium, zinc and nickel in negative territory. But on closer inspection of the charts all look well placed to push higher following average gains of 1.1% on Thursday. Indeed copper that has been one of the laggards of late is up by 0.8% at $7,177 per tonne, aluminium rebounded well on Thursday zinc and nickel prices are just off recent highs and lead prices are in new high ground while tin is consolidating after very strong gains. Volume has been below average with 6,577 lots traded as of 06.25 am London time.

ENERGY Oil futures fell in American trade as the dollar index gained ground following earlier data from the US the world's largest energy consumer and ahead of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams' speech and Baker Hughes' weekly report on oil rigs later today. Wednesday the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks showing a buildup of 6.8 million barrels in the week ending January 26 compared to a 1.1M drop in the previous reading while analysts expected a mere 0.1M increase with total stocks now reaching 418.4 million barrels. Natural gas futures fell over four percent in American trade to the lowest since January 9, as the dollar index plumbed January 25 lows following a basket of data from the US the world's largest energy consumer including the EIA report that showed a lower-than-expected inventory draw down last week.

SPICES Markets found strong support at these lower levels as prices stabilized after the recent fall. However recovery was limited due to lack of strong demand amidst expected higher arrivals of the new crop in coming weeks .Even as sowing is expected to be higher with shifting of other crop towards Jeer due to the high prevailing rates a delayed sowing in Gujarat (due to warmer climate) may have some adverse impact on the crop productivity and its arrivals. Exports from China have reportedly been on the rise. Sideways to slight weak trend persisted for Turmeric as new crop arrivals kept up trend limited and traders too waited for some more fall in prices before initiating demand in the mandis.

OIL & OILSEEDS Soy bean recovered from days low after receiving positive inputs from the 2018-19 Union Budget session.India harvest season subdued export demand for soy meal and estimations of sufficient amount of inventory lying with stockists had been capping the upside just few months back but as parity in exporting Indian soy meal has re-established and harvest season nears completion any sharp fall is ruled out. Soya oil posted a decent recovery amid positive cues about the Agri sector from the Union Budget announcements. Soya oil had maintained strong trend last week amid firmness in Soy bean and global market.

GUAR COMPLEX Guar gradually starts moving up as firmness in Crude oil prices leading to rising export demand kept supporting prices after the recent fall. Overall trend remains Bullish. A rise in Dollar vs Rupee too would be supporting factor for exports. Moving forward guarseed is likely to touch at least 5000, while guar gum might see levels of 10000 or even above. Upward trend is expected in medium term also because of rising concerns on production front from recent crop losses due to excess rains in Rajasthan just few months back.

OTHERS The medium term outlook remains positive for mustard but sentiments might remained eased ahead of harvest season. In coming weeks a comfortable supply situation shall limit the upside movement. Estimations of ample quantity of inventory in physical markets shall prevent prices to move significantly higher say 4250 or beyond in near future. But lower support levels and strength in soybean shall prompt buyers to enter at every fall now since 3960-80 is currently acting as a strong support for the April contract. Markets bounced back after the recent fall in prices for Cotton as demand started rising in the Indian markets after the recent corrections. Strong support noted at 20000 levels as Indian prices start getting competitive in the International markets.

COPPER Last week, Nickel prices opened lower and prices push up side sharply for most of the week till high of 460 and closed near the level of 450. From last couple of weeks prices trading between the range of 460 to 450. Daily RSI (14) has given a negative signal. Prices are expected to go lower from these levels towards next strong support zone placed around 440.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 449

TARGET

440

STOP LOSS

455

ZINC Last week Zinc Feb futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 229.60 but till the end of the week, found resistance of 230 and it closed at 91.4350 with the overall gain of2.50% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect profit booking in it from the higher levels and below the level of 225, it can test the level of 222 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 226.80

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 225

TARGET

222.00

STOP LOSS

226.80

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

TURMERIC NCDEX Turmeric Apr future continued to trade on negative note for the fourth consecutive trading week. Price made the low of 7126 during the week and the high of 7418 and settled at 7148. Price decrease by more than 200 points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of short positions. Market is forming lower lows on its daily chart indicating selling trend. We can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded with negative trend.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

ACTION

Details SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 7120

TARGET

6920

STOP LOSS

7240

CASTOR SEED Last week, NCDEX Castor Seed prices opened higher and prices bounced sharply for most of the week till high of 4348. Previously prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at 4100 on its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14) has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone placed around 4300.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular ACTION ENTRY PRICE TARGET

STOP LOSS

Details BUY ABOVE 4310

4430 4248

Calls of e Week (FOREX)

USDINR Last week USDINR Feb futures started the week on sideways note and after that traded positive for the entire week. It made a high of 64.3900 during the week and closed at 64.2425 with the overall gain of 0.77% on weekly basis. Technically it’s forming Double Bottom pattern on the charts and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it. If it breaks the level of 64.4125 on the upside, then it can test the level of 64.9725 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 64.0975.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

ACTION ENTRY PRICE

Details

BUY ABOVE 64.4125

TARGET

64.9725

STOP LOSS

64.0975

GBPINR Last week GBPINR Feb futures started the week on negative note and made a low of 89.5200 but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 91.4350 with the overall gain of 0.48% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect profit booking in it from the higher levels and below the level of 90.8650, it can test the level of 90.2625 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 91.1625.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 90.8650

TARGET

90.2625

STOP LOSS

91.1625

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Any investment in Equity/commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer. इक्ववटी / कभोडडटी फाजाय भें कोई बी ननवेश जोखखभ के अधीन होता है, कंऩनी इन सुझावों ऩय ककए गए ककसी बी नक ु सान के लरए उत्तयदामी नहीं होगी | मह स्तय बववष्म के कीभतों की गनत का संकेत नहीं दे ते है| वेफसाइट के भाध्मभ से ककसी बी ब्राउक्ज़ंग का अथा है अस्वीकयण की स्वीकृनत।

DISCLOSURE (प्रकटीकयण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी कंऩननमां अनस ु ंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कंऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के जायीकताा के साथ जड ु ी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनऩ ु ारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कंऩनी औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रे ड नहीं कयें गे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को केवर याम के रूऩ भें दे खें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पैसरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कंऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकंऩनी के खखराप कोई भक ु दभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX: (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ): The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड द्वाया ननमव ु त हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी

ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩनू ता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफधं धत नहीं होगा।

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(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company, (फ) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोगी मा उनर्के कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम र्कंऩनी र्की प्रनतबनू तमों भें एर्क प्रनतशत मा उससे अचधर्क र्के वास्तववर्क / पामदे भंद स्वालभत्व नह ं हैं |

(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance; (स) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोचगमों र्को अनुसंधान रयऩोटट र्के प्रर्काशन र्के सभम मा सावटजननर्क रूऩ से उऩस्स्थत होने र्के सभम र्कोई अन्म बौनतर्क संघषट नह ं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION: ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण: High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।

ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनू ता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

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(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

(द) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड ववषम र्कंऩनी र्के लरए र्कबी बी ववऩणन (भार्केट भेकर्कंग) गनतववचध भें शालभर नह ं यहा है ।