BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - The price of gold has traded up and down since the election. Comex gold has been less volatile than gold mining stocks and the gold stock exchange-traded fund. We are very bullish on gold prices for 2017 although the current scenario of Gold is bearish over the short term, expecting a test of the low in the next Week or two. Demand for gold in India rose this week as many jewellers resumed purchases after having stayed away for a few weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget. But Government did not change the import duty on gold. bullion industry had been urging a reduction in the duty to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit. The precious Metal is Expected to trade in positive note in this week the crucial levels for Gold is 29779 is up side and 27612 is Down side.
GOLD CHART-
Chart Details - The Bollinger Bands show price giving support from the middle band a good test and I expect price to eventually move back up to the upper band and push even higher into that band to set up the final rally high. We have been expecting the 5 point broadening top to morph into a more bearish 7 point top and I believe we now have the point 6 low in place at $1124. It is possible for one last marginal low although I personally favour a higher low to form. Let’s see. And in MCX it is Expected to touch the level of 30291 in next week Trading Session.
Monday, 6 February 2017
SILVER - Silver prices are expected to continue moving higher in the year 2017 backed by a strong pick up in the physical demand as a result of increasing use in solar power globally. India’s increasing demand for solar power will further add to the momentum. The Significance levels for Silver is 4298043453 is up side and 41025-40865 is Down side
Detail of Chart - The daily chart of the Silver shows it making a stair-step series of lower highs and lower lows, following the path of the declining 50-day moving average. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern began forming last November, with the low that month forming the left shoulder, the December low defining the head, and this month’s price action marking the right shoulder. Previous resistance in the $ 16.30 area delineates the neckline, and it was successfully retested in Friday’s strong session. The Significance Levels for Silver is 39700-40100 is Down Side and 43980-42651 is Up side silver is Expected to trade in Bullish trend for next trading Week.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
ALUMINIUM
30-DEC-2016
128
126
124
123
122
417
408
399
393
390
COPPER
28-FEB-2016
S1
S2
S3
S4
120
118
116
384
381
372
363
121
CRUDE OIL
19-OCT-2016
3781
3726
3671
3643
3616
3588
3561
3506
3451
GOLD
03-FEB-2016
29727
29488
29249
29160
29010
28921
28771
28532
28293
167
163
159
158
155
154
151
148
144
LEAD
30-DEC-2016
NATURAL GAS
27-DEC-2015
235
226
217
212
208
203
199
190
181
NICKEL
30-DEC-2016
725
712
699
692
686
679
673
660
647
42574
42140
41969
41706
41535
41272
40838
40404
197
192
189
187
184
182
177
172
SILVER ZINC
03-MARCH-2016 43008 30-DEC-2016
202
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-DEC-2016
136
132
127
125
123
120
118
114
109
457
436
415
401
394
380
373
352
331
3940
3830
3720
3667
3610
3557
3500
3390
3280
31651
30730
29809
29440
28888
28519
27967
27046
26125
COPPER CRUDE OIL GOLD
28-FEB-2016 19-OCT-2016 03-FEB-2016
LEAD
30-DEC-2016
184
175
166
161
157
152
148
139
130
NATURAL GAS
27-DEC-2015
282
259
236
221
213
198
190
167
144
NICKEL
30-DEC-2016
872
808
744
716
680
652
616
552
488
43023
42410
41855
41242
40687
39519
38351
197
192
188
183
179
170
161
SILVER ZINC
03-MARCH-2016 45359 30-DEC-2016
215
44191 206
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT2016
69.85
68.65
68.46
67.16
66.86
66.68
66.53
66.03
65.89
EURINR
26-OCT2016
77.52
75.90
73.56
71.28
71.16
70.56
69.45
68.27
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
89.56
87.44
86.32
84.64
83.18
81.01
79.53
78.45
76.19
JPYINR
26-OCT2016
62.25
60.14
59.12
57.67
56.17
56.54
55.89
55.34
54.21
67.14
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT2016
73.58
71.48
69.74
68.32
67.75
66.45
66.10
65.95
65.06
EURINR
26-OCT2016
79.48
77.51
75.82
73.95
70.68
69.25
68.01
67.64
65.59
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
96.89
92.64
88.44
86.17
83.32
81.10
79.25
77.72
75.52
JPYINR
26-OCT2016
67.45
65.61
63.87
59.26
58.47
56.63
54.78
52.66
50.72
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
SYOREFIDR
20-JAN-2016
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
713
709
705
702
701
698
697
693
689
SYBEANIDR
20-JAN-2016
3098
3080
3062
3053
3044
3035
3026
3008
2990
RMSEED
20-JAN-2016
3906
3883
3860
3850
3837
3827
3814
3791
3768
JEERAUNJHA
20-JAN-2016
18392
18182
17972
17873
17762
17663
17552
17342
17132
GUARSEED10
20-JAN-2016
3343
3324
3305
3294
3286
3275
3267
3248
3239
TMC
20-APR-2016
7080
6984
6888
6834
6792
6738
6696
6600
6504
DATE
R4
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-JAN-2016
744
729
714
707
699
692
684
669
654
SYBEANIDR
20-JAN-2016
3266
3191
3116
3079
3041
3004
2966
2891
2816
RMSEED
20-JAN-2016
4077
3998
3919
3879
3840
3800
3761
3682
3603
JEERAUNJHA
20-JAN-2016
19782
19122
18462
18118 17802
17458
17142
16482
15822
GUARSEED10
20-JAN-2016
3628
3515
3402
3343
3289
3230
3176
3063
2950
TMC
20-APR-2016
7641
7343
7045
6913
6747
6615
6449
6151
5853
DATE
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) Gold ended slightly higher on Friday, after the latest U.S. jobs report showing weak wage growth last month dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. Gold for April delivery settled up 0.2% at $ 1,221.85 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in January from the prior month, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% from 4.7% in December, as more Americans joined the workforce. But average hourly earnings rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in December. The slowdown in wage growth prompted speculation that the Fed will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. In its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday the Fed stuck to its view that the economy is strengthening, but gave no clear signal on the timing of its next rate hike as officials wait to assess the possible economic impact of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and recent remarks about currencies. The precious metal was 2.14% higher for the week, as the dollar remained under pressure amid concerns over Donald Trump's presidential style and a lack of clarity on rate hikes. Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $17.51 a troy ounce late Friday and ended the week with gains of 1.7%. Copper was trading at $2.61 a pound late Friday and ended the week down 2.86%, and platinum was up 0.73% on the day at $1,006.85 an ounce. In the coming week, China is to release data on service sector activity and trade, while a report on German factory orders will be in focus in the euro zone. The U.S. is to release monthly trade figures in what will be a thin week for economic data. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, February 6 Australia is to release data on retail sales. China is to publish its Caixin services PMI. In the euro zone, Germany is to report on factory orders.
Tuesday, February 7 The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
New Zealand is to release a report on inflation expectations. The UK is to publish a report on house price inflation. Canada is to release reports on trade, building permits and business activity. The U.S. is also to release its latest trade figures.
Wednesday, February 8 The European Commission is to release its latest economic forecasts for the European Union. Thursday, February 9 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision. Australia is to release a report on business confidence. Canada is to report on new house price inflation. The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak.
Friday, February 10 The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement. China is to release trade figures. The UK is to produce reports on manufacturing production and trade. Canada is to publish its monthly employment report. The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary figures on consumer sentiment.
Gold was little changed on Friday, erasing earlier losses as the dollar came under pressure from a U.S. payrolls report that flagged up weak wage growth last month, weakening the case for near-term interest rate hikes. While U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, wages barely rose. gold XAU= was unchanged at $1,215.75 an ounce by 2:25 p.m. EST (1925 GMT), off an earlier low of $1,207.10. U.S. gold futures GCv1 for April delivery settled up 0.1 percent at $1,220.80 per ounce. "Markets seem to be looking at the soft wage data, which signal rather weak inflationary pressure, and therefore less need for the Fed to raise interest rates, report. The U.S. dollar .DXY and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR were little changed, having come off session highs.
Gold is on track to rise around 2 percent this week as the dollar headed for a fourth weekly drop on worries about Donald Trump's presidential style and a lack of clarity on rate hikes. The yellow metal is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares GLD , rose for a second day on Thursday by 1.5 tonnes to 811.22 tonnes. A bounce in investment to a four-year high drove a modest gain in gold demand last year, data from the World Gold Council showed on Friday, even as use of the metal in jewelry slid to its lowest since 2009 and coin and bar buying slid. inflows were the sole driver of demand growth in 2016 - we saw the second highest inflows since 2009. "Technical analysis still look bullish for the white metal, But the lack of liquidity and concerns that China, due to its pollution problem, may direct the auto sector towards electric vehicles looms in the shadows." Silver XAG= was down 0.2 percent at $17.40, having reached its highest in more than 11 weeks at $17.73 in the previous session. A bounce in investment to a four-year high drove a modest gain in gold demand last year, data from the World Gold Council showed on Friday, even as use of the metal in jewellery slid to its lowest since 2009 and coin and bar buying dipped. Global demand for physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins and bars fell 9 percent as higher prices and import curbs hurt demand, particularly in the major Chinese and Indian markets. Central banks also bought a third less gold. However a surge in investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds offset that to lift overall gold demand by 2 percent to 4,309 tonnes, its highest since 2013. "There are three primary factors that fuelled strong inflows into ETFs -- we had the spread of negative interest rates, then the steady pushback in expectations surrounding U.S. interest rate (hikes), and the uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risk. "Investment as a whole posted its best year since 2012, but elsewhere demand was subdued." ETF buying saw its strongest quarter on record in the first three months of last year, with 342.3 tonnes added to funds, chiefly in the United States and Europe. That tailed off later in the year, however, with outflows of 193.1 tonnes seen in the fourth quarter. Investment in coins and bars fell 2 percent. Britain, where the pound fell after the June vote to leave the European Union, was a bright spot, with demand rising 28 percent to 10.9 tonnes. Global jewellery demand, the single biggest demand segment for gold, fell 15 percent to 2,042 tonnes. Indian consumer demand fell 21 percent last year to 675.5 tonnes, its lowest since 2009, as prices rose and import curbs were introduced. The WGC sees it remaining close to this level this year, at 650-750 tonnes. Demand in number one consumer China is expected to improve to 950-1,000 tonnes, after it fell 7 percent last year to 913.6 tonnes, its weakest since 2012. Central bank demand was in positive territory for a seventh straight year, but was at its lowest since 2010 at 383.6 tonnes. "If you look at gold as a percentage of FX reserves, the twin effects of FX reserves coming down and the gold price rising has boosted gold as a reserve asset across central banks around the world," Hewitt said. "That has been another factor that weighs on reserve managers' minds."
Demand for gold in India rose this week as many jewellers resumed purchases after having stayed away for a few weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget. On Wednesday, the Indian government presented its budget for the 2017/18 financial year, but did not change the import duty on gold. bullion industry had been urging a reduction in the duty to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit. "Since there is clarity on duty structure now, jewellers have started buying. Even at higher levels, they are making purchases.The local market, gold prices MAUc1 were trading around 28,900 rupees per 10 grams on Friday. In December, prices had hit 26,862 rupees per 10 grams, their lowest since Feb. 2, 2016. "Supply in the local market is limited as banks curtailed import last week. That's why now they could charge a premium despite the price rise. Dealers in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the metal, were charging a premium of up to $ 2 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. Gold demand in India will be muted this year after dropping to multi-year lows in 2016, with trading dented as the government pushes to make markets for the metal more transparent and brings in a new tax, the World Gold Council said on Friday. in Asia, demand remained subdued with Chinese markets shut for the week-long Lunar New Year holidays. "The physical demand remained very quiet owing to Chinese holidays and movements across Asia also remained very weak," a Singapore-based banker said. Premiums in China, the top-consumer nation, were about $ 6 in the previous week. Meanwhile, premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong remained unchanged at $1-$1.40 an ounce. Gold prices moved lower on Friday, as the U.S. dollar recovered from the previous session’s shar losses, but the precious metal remained within close distance of a two-and-a-half month peak amid ongoing U.S. political uncertainty and ahead of a key U.S. jobs report. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were down 0.30% at $1,215.75, not far from Thursday’s two-and-a-half month high of $1,224.20.The April contract ended Thursday’s session 0.92% higher at $1,219.40 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,197.90, Wednesday’s low and resistance at $1,224.20. The greenback recovered from losses posted after Federal Reserve policymakers said on Wednesday that some market-based measures of inflation were still low.However, the central bank also said that job creations remained solid, inflation had increased and economic confidence was rising. The comments came after the Fed left interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting, in a widely expected move. The U.S. dollar has also been under pressure in recent weeks due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and immigration bans, spurring ongoing uncertainty in global markets. On Thursday, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing new sanctions on multiple Iranian entities, seeking to increase pressure on Tehran. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 99.88, off Thursday’s two-and-a-half month
trough of 99.19. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Market participants were looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due later in the day, for further indications on the strength of the jobs market. Earlier Friday, data showed that China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked down to 51.0 in January from 51.9 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to slip to 51.8 last month. The data fueled fresh concerns over a slowdown in China, which is also the world’s biggest gold consumer. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for March delivery slid 0.32% to $17.373 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery tumbled 1.04% to $2.655 a pound. Gold prices gained in European morning trade on Thursday, rising toward the highest level in about 11 weeks as the U.S. dollar slumped after the Federal Reserve gave no firm signal on the timing of its next rate hike. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a session peak of $1,219.20 a troy ounce, the most since November 17. It was last at $ 1,216.65 by 3:15AM ET, up $ 8.15, or around 0.7%, after losing $ 3.10, or about 0.3%, a day earlier. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday as expected in its first meeting since President Donald Trump took office. The U.S. central bank painted a relatively upbeat picture of the economy, noting that job gains remained solid, inflation had increased and economic confidence was rising, although it gave no firm signal on the timing of its next rate move. The Fed projected at least three rate increases for 2017. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are continuing to price in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, with the next being in June. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to a daily low of 99.39, a level not seen since November 14. It was last at 99.44 in European morning trade, down around 0.3%. The greenback has been under pressure as concerns about the Trump Administration’s policies rattled investors. Headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery jumped 18.3 cents, or 1.1%, to $ 17.63 a troy ounce, after rising to a more than two-month high of $ 17.66 earlier. Gold demand in India will be muted this year after dropping to multi-year lows in 2016, with trading dented as the government pushes to make markets for the metal more transparent and brings in a new tax, the World Gold Council said on Friday. Lower demand from the world's second biggest consumer could rein in global prices XAU= that have been trading near their highest in 11 weeks, although it would help the south Asian country reduce its trade deficit. Gold is a mainstay of Indian culture, serving as the primary vehicle for household savings for hundreds of millions of people in Asia's third-largest economy. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been trying to curb costly bullion imports and stop the metal from being used to hide billions of dollars of undeclared 'black money'. More than two-thirds of gold is bought with cash in India. Gold demand in the country fell 21.2 percent in 2016 from the year before to 675.5 tonnes as new rules such as those forcing customers to disclose their tax code for purchases above
200,000 rupees dampened demand. That was the lowest level in seven years. Consumption will likely be between 650 and 750 tonnes in 2017, with appetite also hit by the introduction of the nationwide Goods and Services Tax. Indian demand averaged at 845 tonnes over the last 10 years. "We believe many of the issues are plaguing the industry ... this is not going to change quickly in 2017 and plus other big transition of GST coming in, it could disrupt trading. report on gold demand and supply for 2016. The GST is expected to be rolled out from July. said that a reasonable level of GST on gold jewellery could bring transparency to bullion trading, but that a rate that was too high could encourage bullion smuggling. Gold smuggling in India has surged since India raised its import duty to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit. In 2016, smugglers brought in 100 to 120 tonnes gold in the country. A bounce in investment to a four-year high drove a modest gain in gold demand last year, data from the World Gold Council showed on Friday, even as use of the metal in jewellery slid to its lowest since 2009 and coin and bar buying dipped. Global demand for physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins and bars fell 9 percent as higher prices and import curbs hurt demand, particularly in the major Chinese and Indian markets. Central banks also bought a third less gold. However a surge in investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds offset that to lift overall gold demand by 2 percent to 4,309 tonnes, its highest since 2013. "There are three primary factors that fuelled strong inflows into ETFs -- we had the spread of negative interest rates, then the steady pushback in expectations surrounding U.S. interest rate hikes, and the uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risk. "Investment as a whole posted its best year since 2012, but elsewhere demand was subdued." ETF buying saw its strongest quarter on record in the first three months of last year, with 342.3 tonnes added to funds, chiefly in the United States and Europe. That tailed off later in the year, however, with outflows of 193.1 tonnes seen in the fourth quarter. Investment in coins and bars fell 2 percent. Britain, where the pound fell after the June vote to leave the European Union, was a bright spot, with demand rising 28 percent to 10.9 tonnes. Global jewellery demand, the single biggest demand segment for gold, fell 15 percent to 2,042 tonnes. Indian consumer demand fell 21 percent last year to 675.5 tonnes, its lowest since 2009, as prices rose and import curbs were introduced. The WGC sees it remaining close to this level this year, at 650-750 tonnes. Demand in number one consumer China is expected to improve to 950-1,000 tonnes, after it fell 7 percent last year to 913.6 tonnes, its weakest since 2012. Central bank demand was in positive territory for a seventh straight year, but was at its lowest since 2010 at 383.6 tonnes. "If you look at gold as a percentage of FX reserves, the twin effects of FX reserves coming down and the gold price rising has boosted gold as a reserve asset across central banks around the world. "That has been another factor that weighs on reserve managers' minds." Gold prices were little changed in European morning trade on Wednesday, holding near the prior session's one-week high as market players looked ahead to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for further clues on the timing of the next rate hike. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $ 1.00, or around 0.1%, to $1,210.35 a troy ounce by 3:15AM ET
, after rallying $ 15.40, or about 1.3%, a day earlier. Prices of the yellow metal rose to a one-week high of $1,217.40 on Tuesday. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in its first policy decision since President Donald Trump took office, as policymakers await greater clarity on his economic policies. The central bank's latest policy decision is due at 2:00PM ET. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is not due to hold a press conference. The Fed projected at least three rate increases for 2017. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Besides the Fed meeting, there is also ADP payrolls at 8:15AM ET and ISM manufacturing data at 10:00AM ET. In addition, headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.2% at 99.74 in European morning trade, remaining within sight of the prior session's seven-week low of 99.53. The greenback tumbled on Tuesday after Peter Navarro, Trump’s top trade adviser, called the euro "grossly undervalued.” Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched down 4.1 cents, or 0.2%, to $17.50 a troy ounce, easing off the previous day's more than two-month high of $17.63. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.2% to $ 998.45, while palladium climbed around 1% to $761.45 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures were little changed at $2.729 a pound. Futures rose to a one-and-a-half year peak of $2.738 earlier with investors watching developments surrounding a strike by workers in Chile at the world's largest mine. Gold prices were higher in European morning trade on Tuesday, adding to the prior session's gains amid uncertainty over the outlook for U.S policy after President Donald Trump introduced immigration curbs that sparked criticism at home and abroad. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.85, or around 0.5%, to $1,201.95 a troy ounce by 3:25AM ET (08:25GMT), after adding $4.90, or about 0.4%, a day earlier. Market sentiment was bruised after Trump suspended travel to the United States from Syria, Iraq, Iran and four other Muslim-majority countries on Friday, saying the moves would help protect Americans from terrorist attacks. The executive order led to huge protests in many U.S. cities and sparked global backlash, raising worries about the potentially destabilizing impact of Trump's policies. Adding to concerns, the president fired acting U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates after she ordered Justice Department lawyers not to enforce the travel restrictions. Trump named Dana Boente, U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, to replace Yates, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said in a tweet. Headlines from Washington will most likely continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. Meanwhile, traders were also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on monetary policy starting on Tuesday for further clues on the timing of the next U.S. interest rate hike. The Fed indicated last month that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017. However,
traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1% at 100.30 in European morning trade, pulling back from the prior session's peak of 100.81. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched up 6.6 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 17.21 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.2% to $995.30, while palladium climbed around 1.6% to $749.92 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rose 2.3 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.678 a pound. Gold prices were higher in European morning trade on Monday, starting the week off with gains as the dollar slumped after immigration curbs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump heightened concerns about the impact of the new administration's policies on trade and the economy. Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $ 2.35, or around 0.2%, to $ 1,193.45 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET. Trump on Friday put a four-month hold on allowing refugees into the U.S. and temporarily barred travelers from Syria and six other Muslim-majority countries, saying the moves would help protect Americans from terrorist attacks. The executive order led to huge protests in many U.S. cities and raised worries about the potentially destabilizing impact of Trump's policies. Headlines from Washington will most likely continue to dictate market sentiment this week, as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1% at 100.46 in European morning trade. Lackluster U.S. fourth-quarter growth figures also weighed on the greenback as it dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. The annual rate of economic growth slowed to 1.9% in the three months to December the Commerce Department reported Friday, slowing sharply from the 3.5% rate of growth seen in the third quarter. The slowdown in growth prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Global financial markets will be busy with central bank meetings in the week ahead, with policy decisions due in the U.S., U.K. and Japan. Investors will also keep an eye out on key economic data, with the monthly U.S. employment report and euro zone inflation data in the spotlight. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched up 5.2 cents, or 0.3%, to $ 17.18 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum futures tacked on 0.2% to $ 985.25, while palladium futures shed around 0.9% to $ 732.20 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rose 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to $ 2.694 a pound. Gold ended little changed on Friday, after weaker-than-expected figures on U.S. fourth quarter growth dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. Gold for April delivery settled at $1,190.0 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal was 1.35% lower for the week, as the stronger U.S. dollar weighed. The annual rate of economic growth slowed to 1.9% in the three months to December the Commerce Department reported Friday, slowing sharply from the 3.5% rate of growth seen in the third quarter. The economy grew just
1.6% in 2016 as a whole, the slowest rate of growth since 2011. The slowdown in growth prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. Investors also remained cautious as they pondered the economic implications of President Donald Trump's pledges of increased fiscal spending, tax cuts and protectionism. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $17.16 a troy ounce late Friday and ended the week little changed. Copper was trading at $2.69 a pound late Friday and ended the week up 2.86%, and platinum was up 0.69% on the day at $ 988.45 an ounce. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January as well as Wednesday’s policy statement by the Fed. Investors will also be watching central bank meetings in Japan and the UK. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, January 30 Financial markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Yearholiday. In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation. The U.S. is to release figures on personal income and spending as well as a report on pending home sales.
Tuesday, January 31 Markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. The euro zone is to release preliminary estimates of consumer price inflation and fourth quarter GDP. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt. Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP. The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Alberta.
Wednesday, February 1 Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. China is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity. New Zealand is to publish its quarterly employment report. The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
The European Commission is to publish its latest economic forecasts for the European Union. The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report for January and the Institute for Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI. The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a monetary policy statement.
Thursday, February 2 Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. Australia is to release data on building approvals and the trade balance. The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity. The Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting along with its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney, along with other policymakers will also hold a press conference to discuss the inflation report. ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Slovenia. The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and labor costs.
Friday, February 3 China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI. The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak. The U.S. is to round up the week data on factory orders and the non-farm payrolls report for January, while the ISM is to release its services PMI.
ENERGY Oil prices edged up on Monday on fears that new U.S. sanctions against Iran could be extended to start affecting crude supplies, but markets were capped by further signs of growing U.S. production. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since a recent Iranian ballistic missile test which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to impose sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards. crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $56.86 per barrel at 0037 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were up 5 cents at $ 53.88 a barrel. Traders said the strain between Tehran and the United States
raised concerns that U.S. sanctions could be tightened further to impact Iranian oil exports, which were only allowed to return to normal last year. "The move by the U.S. to impose new restrictions on Iran for testing a ballistic missile ... does raise the risk of further tensions disrupting supply, "This was countered somewhat by data showing another strong rise in rig activity in the U.S.," it added. U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a 13th week in the last 14, extending a nine-month recovery as drillers take advantage of crude prices that have held mostly over $ 50 a barrel since OPEC agreed to cut supplies in late November. Drillers added 17 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 3, bringing the total count up to 583, the most since October 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc BHI.N said on Friday. rising U.S. production, led by shale drillers, dims efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia to end global oversupply by cutting their output by a planned average of almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year. OPEC's efforts to shield its biggest and fastest growing markets in Asia from the cuts are also undermining a rebalancing of the market, traders have said, as OPEC cuts exports to regions in Europe and North America where demand growth is slower or where other suppliers are more dominant. over efforts so far to re-balance the market is reflected in price movements this year. Despite the OPEC-led cuts being enacted from the beginning of 2017, Brent crude futures are 2.6 percent below their peaks in early January.
Oil futures finished higher on Friday, logging a weekly gain, as traders cheered signs that global supply was beginning to tighten in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output. News that the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on some Iranian individuals and entities, days after the White House put Tehran "on notice" over a ballistic missile test, further supported gains. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery tacked on 25 cents, or about 0.5%, to settle at $56.81 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Prices climbed to a four-week high of $57.45 in the prior session. Londontraded Brent futures scored a gain of $1.36, or approximately 2.4%, on the week. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March rose 29 cents, or around 0.6%, to end at $ 53.83 a barrel by close of trade. On Thursday, Nymex futures touched a high of $ 54.34, a level not seen since January 3. For the week, New York-traded oil futures gained 66 cents, or about 1.2%, the third straight weekly rise. Oil was boosted after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that crude producers had cut their output as agreed under a deal with OPEC, adding to signs of compliance with a global pact to scale back production. Novak said that Russian companies might cut oil production more quickly than required by its deal with late last year. He added that 1.4 million barrels per day was already cut from global oil output last month as part of the deal. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months. The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%. Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the mid-$50s over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major
global producers and expectations of a rebound in U.S. shale production. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 17 last week, the 13th gain in 14 weeks. That brought the total count to 583, the most since November 2015. The data raised concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for March rose 2.0 cents, or nearly 1.4% to $1.553 a gallon. It ended up about 1.8% for the week. March heating oil added 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to finish at $1.665 a gallon. For the week, the fuel gained around 2.9%. Natural gas futures for March delivery slipped 12.4 cents, or almost 4%, to $3.063 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 9.7%. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Tuesday, February 7 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.
Wednesday, February 8 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.
Thursday, February 9 The U.S. EIA is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.
Friday, February 10 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
Oil prices rose on Friday after the United States imposed sanctions on some Iranian individuals and entities, days after the White House rebuked Tehran for a ballistic missile test. The strong U.S. January jobs figure was also supportive, as it suggests ongoing strength in energy demand. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 settled up 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $53.83. The contract gained
more than 1 percent for the week. Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled 25 cents higher at $56.81 a barrel, giving it a 2 percent gain on the week, the first significant weekly rise this year. Volume in U.S. crude futures on Friday was relatively low, with about 440,000 contracts changing hands by 3:30 p.m. EST, short of the 200-day moving average of 528,000 contracts a day. The consensus is that Iran supported the market, but I think that it's probably more on the stronger jobs report leading to higher demand in the near term. U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring. Nonfarm payrolls were up by 227,000, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.8 percent. the sanctions, announced by the U.S. Treasury, 13 individuals and 12 entities cannot access the U.S. financial system or deal with U.S. companies. They are also subject to "secondary sanctions," which means foreign companies and individuals are prohibited from dealing with them, or risk being blacklisted by the United States. is the first move by the administration of President Donald Trump against Iran. It follows his vows during the 2016 campaign to get tough on Tehran. The news added to volatility in what had already been a day of choppy trading. Analysts said the market is torn between promised cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and fears over rising U.S. shale oil production. the market is taking these actions in stride so far as unlikely to result in a larger military conflict that would put Persian Gulf crude oil supplies at risk, the odds of that scenario are certainly higher than a week ago," wrote Timothy Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures in New York. U.S. oil moved higher on Friday, after the U.S. administration threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran following a missile test by Tehran, fueling concerns over fresh geopolitical tensions between the two countries. U.S. crude futures for March delivery were up 0.39% at $53.76 a barrel, just off Thursday’s five-week highs of $54.34 a barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the April Brent contract gained 0.41% to trade at $56.79 a barrel, close to the previous session’s five-week peak of $57.45. Oil prices were boosted after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the possibility of imposing new sanctions on multiple Iranian entities, seeking to increase pressure on Tehran. The warning came after a ballistic missile test was carried out by Iran. Prices also strengthened after Russia's energy minister said global oil output was cut by 1.4 million barrels per day last month as part of the deal last year between OPEC and other producers. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day. If carried out as planned, the deal should reduce global supply by about 2 per cent.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, giving back early gains as traders grew less concerned about tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday in a tweet that Iran had been "put on notice" after the country tested a ballistic missile. morning trade, crude prices briefly climbed to their highest levels since early January due in part to the tough talk over the missile test since
the possibility of a confrontation in the Gulf region could put world oil supplies at risk. "Once it did not seem like a conflict was in the offing, prices leveled off. Brent LCOc1 futures fell 24 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $ 56.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $ 53.54. U.S. gasoline futures RBc1 fell 2.9 percent. "The big action on Thursday was in the products market. noting that U.S. gasoline inventories were within 1 percent of the record set a year ago. producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters were following through on their agreements to cut output to reduce a global supply glut also boosted oil prices earlier. Russian oil output contracted in January by 100,000 bpd, Energy Ministry data showed. Earlier this week, a Reuters survey found most key oil producers were sticking to the deal, with compliance above 80 percent. OPEC and other exporters agreed last year to reduce supplies by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day to prop up prices that remain at about half their mid-2014 levels. OPEC and non-OPEC producer Russia, however, are shielding Asian customers from those supply cuts and instead have reduced deliveries to Europe and the Americas. crude prices in recent months have prompted U.S. energy producers to drill for more oil. U.S. crude inventories USOILC=ECI rose last week by 6.5 million barrels to 494.76 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, far exceeding forecasts for an increase of 3.3 million barrels. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, have been near record highs for much of the past year and domestic production is rising as U.S. companies drill for shale oil.
Oil prices edged up on Friday on news that U.S. President Donald Trump could be poised to impose new sanctions on multiple Iranian entities, firing geopolitical tensions between the two nations. Reuters reported that the U.S. administration is prepared to roll out new measures against more than two dozen Iranian targets following Tehran's ballistic missile test, according to sources, but the package was formulated in a way that would not violate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. crude for March delivery CLc1 was up 37 cents at $ 53.91 a barrel, after settling down 34 cents on Thursday. For the week, the contract is up a little over 1 percent. London Brent crude had yet to trade after settling down 24 cents at $56.56. Global oil output was cut by 1.4 million barrels per day last month, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said, as part of the deal last year between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia. said Russian companies may cut oil production quicker than had been initially agreed with OPEC and added that he expected the market to rebalance by the middle of this year.
Oil prices fell on Thursday after official data showed U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles rose sharply, although signs that OPEC and other producers are holding the line on output cuts are helping support prices. Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 28 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $ 56.52 a barrel as of 0410 GMT after settling up $ 1.22 in the previous session. Front month futures for West Texas Intermediate CLc1 were down 33 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $ 53.55 after climbing $ 1.07 at the day before. U.S. crude stocks
USOILC=ECI grew last week by an unexpected 6.5 million barrels to 494.76 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners let stocks build further in a seasonally slow season for production. The build in stocks far exceeded analysts' expectations for an increase of 3.3 million barrels. "Obviously we saw some solid gains in prices in the previous session so there might be a little bit of profit-taking in the Asian session after the market rallied unexpectedly. "But prices are still very much range-bound. Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI climbed by 3.9 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1-million barrel gain. Gasoline demand has been seasonally weak, down 5.7 percent from a year ago over the past four weeks. But prices were underpinned by indications that producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and others are curbing output and geopolitical tensions between the United States and Tehran after Iran's latest missile test. this week, a Reuters survey found high compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts. The curbs follow last year's agreement to lower supplies by a combined 1.8 million bpd to prop up prices that remain at about half their mid-2014 levels. That came even as oil production growth in the Middle East is set to remain strong, adding 2.44 million bpd during 2017-2021, a report by energy consultancy BMI Research said on Thursday. Growth will be led by the national oil companies and supported by a large proven reserves base and low cost structures. Production in North America will return to growth in 2017, the report added.
U.S. oil fell on Thursday after official data showed U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles rose sharply, although signs that OPEC and other producers are holding the line on output cuts are helping support prices. Front month futures for West Texas Intermediate CLc1 were down 34 cents at $53.54 a barrel at 0016 GMT on Thursday. They rose $1.07 to close at $53.88 the day before. Trading of Brent crude LCOc1 had not started. The contract settled up $1.22 a barrel at $56.80 on Wednesday. U.S. crude stocks grew last week, along with gasoline and distillate inventories, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners let stocks build further in a seasonally slow season for production. Crude inventories USOILC=ECI rose 6.5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 27, far exceeding analyst expectations for an increase of 3.3 million barrels. Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI climbed by 3.9 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1-million barrel gain. Gasoline demand has been seasonally weak, down 5.7 percent from a year ago over the past four weeks. But indications that producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and others including Russia are curbing output helped underpin prices. Russia cut production in January by around 100,000 barrels per day, according to data seen by Reuters. Earlier this week, a Reuters survey found high compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts. The curbs follow last year's agreement to lower supplies by a combined 1.8 million bpd to prop up prices that remain at about half their mid-2014 levels.
Crude oil futures rallied late on Wednesday, jumping more than $ 1 a barrel on geopolitical concerns after
Iran confirmed a ballistic missile test and bulls found support in reports on production cuts. Oil futures pared gains immediately after weekly U.S. supply data showed a much bigger build than expected, but prices rebounded. Approaching the settlement, prices rallied on concerns about tensions between the United States and Iran. prices were buoyed by reports that Russia and Iraq were complying with output cut agreements. Brent crude LCOc1 settled up $1.22 a barrel at $56.80. U.S. crude CLc1 settled up $ 1.07 at $ 53.88. "Obviously the Trump administration is taking a harder line on Iran and that will put some premium into a market. "We're seeing a historic amount of compliance to these production cuts." Oil markets have been trapped in a range as traders wait to see whether OPEC production cuts can outweigh U.S. supply growth. "U.S. crude could be in consolidation from $51 to $55 for a while, until there's more evidence on OPEC production cuts or more evidence of production picking up or stabilizing in the U.S.,". U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended Friday rose 6.47 million barrels, nearly double the expected increase. The larger-than expected build initially exacerbated concerns that efforts to cut production globally may not be sufficient to reduce a supply glut. "It was a very bearish report on several fronts, from the large acrossthe-board builds in the major categories, and the continued decline in refinery runs. "Crude oil imports were elevated again, as well, with the Gulf Coast seeing a big increase in crude oil inventories." Still, data in the report also suggested U.S. production could be lower in the week, Baruch said. That energized bulls to push crude upward, he said. Russia cut production in January by around 100,000 barrels per day, according to data seen by Reuters. A day earlier, a Reuters survey found high compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts. "Any hopes of a sustained recovery in price will depend on increasing efforts by OPEC to curb output, though the prospect of an upside breakout will be undermined by the budding revival in U.S. crude production," The cuts by Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries follow last year's agreement to lower supplies by a combined 1.8 million bpd to prop up prices that still are half their mid-2014 levels. A Russian cut of 100,000 bpd would be a third of Moscow's pledge to reduce its output by 300,000 bpd. However, Russia has said its planned output reduction would be gradual. OPEC has implemented most of its reduction. A Reuters survey on Tuesday found that OPEC members in January have delivered on about 82 percent of their deal to lower supply by 1.16 million bpd. data now coming out for the first month affected by the OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts, it appears fairly safe to say that compliance with the pledged reduction has been relatively high," analysts at JBC Energy said in a report. Oil was higher Wednesday ahead of U.S. official stockpile data later in the session. Brent crude was up 39 cents, or 0.70%, at $55.97 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude added 31 cents, or 0.59%, to $ 53.12. American Petroleum Institute API weekly figures Tuesday showed a rise of 5.8 million barrels in crude stocks in the latest week. Energy Information Administration weekly figures are forecast to show a rise in U.S. crude inventories of 3.289 million barrels. The market was underpinned by solid Chinese manufacturing data in January, which suggested sustained demand for oil. Support also came from signs of strong compliance with output cuts by major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers plan to cut output by some 1.8
million barrels a day in the first half of this year. However, concerns remain about a pick-up in U.S. drilling activity, which could curtail the impact of those cuts. India's annual oil imports from Iran surged to a record high in 2016 as some refiners resumed purchases after the lifting of sanctions against Tehran, according to ship tracking data and a report compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts. The sharp increase propelled Iran into fourth place among India's suppliers in 2016, up from seventh position in 2015. It used to be India's second-biggest supplier before sanctions. For the year, the world's third biggest oil consumer bought about 4,73,000 barrels per day of oil from Iran to feed expanding refining capacity, up from 208,300 bpd in 2015, the data showed. In December, imports from Iran more than doubled from a year earlier to about 546,600 bpd. In 2015 refiners had slowed purchases due to sanctions which choked payment routes, insurance and halved Iran's exports. Indian refiners Reliance Industries RELI.NS , Hindustan Petroleum HPCL.NS , Bharat Petroleum BPCL.NS and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd last year resumed imports from Tehran, attracted by the discount offered by Iran. "In most of 2016 there was a fight among Gulf producers to increase their market share and lifting of sanctions against Iran has intensified that fight," In April-December, the first nine months of this fiscal year, Iranian supplies to India averaged a record 530,300 bpd, up from about 400,000 bpd before sanctions tightened against Tehran. India's 2016 Iranian oil imports were the highest in at least six years, according to the Reuters data. Government data going back over a longer period shows the average was the highest since the 2001-02 fiscal year. Overall, India imported 4.3 million bpd oil in 2016, up 7.4 percent from the previous year.
Oil dipped on Wednesday, weighed by ongoing high supplies despite an OPEC-led production cut, but prices remained within a narrow range that has bound the market since late January. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.48 per barrel at 0140 GMT, down 10 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $52.73 a barrel, down 8 cents. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has said it will cut production by around 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 in an effort to end global over-production that has dogged markets for over two years. Other producers, including Russia, have pledged to cut another 600,000 bpd in output. A Reuters survey published late on Tuesday showed that OPEC's output fell by over 1 million bpd in January to 32.27 million bpd between December and January. a good start...to cut production to bring the market back toward balance. But McKenna added that there were still "some questions about whether or not OPEC will achieve its goals" to cut even deeper and for the full period of the first half of 2017. With uncertainty over the final outcome of OPEC's cuts and also little known so far regarding Russia's commitments to its supply reductions, crude futures have been range-bound, trading within a $2 per barrel range over the past week, and within $1.25 a barrel since Monday. Reuters' technical commodity analyst Wang Tao said that both Brent and WTI price signals were mixed, with bullish and bearish drivers largely
offsetting each other.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after news OPEC oil production has fallen sharply this month, pointing to a strong start by the exporter group in implementing its first supply cut deal in eight years. Reuters survey showed on Tuesday crude oil supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets averaged 30.01 million barrels per day in January, versus 31.17 million in December. the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries achieved 82 percent compliance with its promised production cuts, well above most market forecasts. Compliance comfortably exceeds the initial 60 percent achieved when a similar deal was implemented in 2009, and the survey adds to indications that adherence so far has been high. "This is very high, a good number," an OPEC source said of the January compliance estimate. Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 50 cents a barrel at $55.73 by 1455 GMT. U.S. light crude CLc1 was up 60 cents at $53.23. Both benchmarks have traded within fairly narrow ranges over the last two months, since OPEC and other big exporters agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd in an attempt to clear a global glut. After an initial price rise on hopes that markets would rebalance quickly, Brent and U.S. crude futures have both been held back by evidence of higher U.S. oil drilling and forecasts of a rebound in shale production. U.S. shale output is slowly increasing, helping keep a lid on prices. Brent has been close to $ 55 a barrel and U.S. crude not far from $52.50 for most of January. "OPEC adherence to production targets has been strong," said U.S. investment bank Jefferies, but added that U.S. drilling "activity levels are already picking up". Following months of increased drilling, U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has risen by 6.3 percent since July last year to almost 9 million bpd, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Brent crude oil prices fell around 5 percent from their early January peak as rising U.S. drilling activity offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in an effort to prop up the market. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.25 per barrel at 0112 GMT, virtually unchanged from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $52.58 a barrel, down 5 cents from their previous settlement. However, Brent sagged over 5 percent since its peak in early January and WTI is down over 2.5 percent, reflecting a sentiment that efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output by almost 1.8 barrel per day in order to end overproduction were so far not big enough to offset rising U.S. drilling. "Crude oil prices continued to struggle as traders remained concerned about increasing drilling activity in the U.S. Following months of rising drilling activity, U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has risen by 6.3 percent since July last year to almost 9 million bpd, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs estimates that year-on-year U.S. oil "production will rise by 290,000 bpd in 2017" if a backlog on rigs that are still to become operational is accounted for.
Oil prices fell on Monday as news of another weekly increase in U.S. drilling activity had oil forecasters concerned that production cuts from other producing nations may not reduce the global supply glut as much as had been hoped. Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices LCOc1 settled down 29 cents at $55.23 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 settled down 54 cents at $ 52.63. The number of active U.S. oil rigs rose last week to the highest level since November 2015, according to Baker Hughes data, with drillers encouraged by oil prices above $50 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 to relieve a two-year supply overhang. First indications of compliance to that deal show members have cut production by 900,000 barrels per day in January, according to Petro-Logistics, which tracks OPEC supply. Reuters' most recent survey indicated that OPEC production declined slightly in December. The data from Petro-Logistics suggests only 75 percent of the targeted cuts would be met. "There's an apprehension about how big that cutback is going to be versus the strength in U.S. crude production, "That gap is a little narrower than folks had anticipated more recently." As a result, oil may have enough support to stay just above $ 50 a barrel but not get much higher than that, The cuts have encouraged drillers in low-cost U.S. shale producing regions to ramp up activity, which will temper any price gains. The oil market also declined as downward pressure weighed on global markets facing uncertainty after sweeping U.S. regulatory changes. “As we see weakness in the equities, it's carrying over into other sectors like energy and even the grain markets, "The dollar index was also quite strong all day, which also weighs on prices." Analysts at J.P. Morgan said they saw a rise in oil prices beyond $ 60 a barrel in 2018 as unlikely. "For prices to be supported above $ 60/bbl in 2018 would likely require continued OPEC output reductions that continue to tighten the market beyond Q3 '17 - something that looks unlikely at this juncture," they said in a report to clients. Oil was mixed Monday on concerns increased U.S. supply could curtail the positive impact of output cuts agreed by other producers. Brent crude was off 4 cents, or 0.07%, at $55.66 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude added 6 cents, or 0.11%, to $ 53.23. Baker Hughes weekly data Friday showed an increase in the number of rigs operating in the U.S. of 15 to 556. That was the highest level since November 2015. OPEC and nonOPEC producers have agreed to cut output by some 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half of this year.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : BASE METAL GUIDE Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 675-701.8.
Nickel prices fell tracking LME prices dropped in heavy volumes as Chinese markets reopened
after a week-long break.
But prices ended with almost 7-percent weekly gain after the Philippines said it would
permanently close half its nickel production.
The Philippines mine closures will offset the recent Indonesian decision to lift a ban on exports of
nickel that could add 150,000 tonnes of nickel to the market.
Zinc
Zinc trading range for the day is 183.3-191.9.
Zinc prices dropped after China wrong-footed investors and boosted interest rates, sparking
concern about a clampdown on speculators.
China's central bank to raise short-term interest rates on the first day back from a long holiday, in a
further sign of a tightening policy bias.
Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 142 tonnes
Copper
Copper trading range for the day is 381.3-399.3.
Copper dropped as BHP Billiton’s Escondida mine in Chile, has resumed work as the company
has requested government mediation to avoid a looming strike.
The latest data from the International Copper Study Group showed the refined market recorded a
surplus of 48,000 tonnes in October.
SHFE stocks at 212,925 tonnes are down from their peak of 394,777 tonnes from late in March.
BASE METAL ✍ COPPER Prices fell by 0.21 per cent to Rs. 406.20 per kg in futures trading as participants engaged in reducing their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on subdued demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month April declined by 85 paise or 0.21 per cent to Rs. 406.20 per kg in business turnover of four lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in February contracts eased by 55 paise, or 014 per cent to Rs. 403.85 per kg in 383 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to sluggish demand at domestic spot market.
✍ LEAD Amid pick up in demand from consuming industries at spot market, lead prices were up by 0.29 per cent to Rs 156 per kg in futures trade as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in February edged up by 45 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 156 per kg in business turnover of 69 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in January contracts was up by 35 paise, or 0.22 per cent to Rs 156.60 per kg in 627 lots. Market analysts said fresh positions created by traders due to pick up in demand from battery-makers in the spot market, mainly led to rise in lead prices at futures trade.
✍ COPPER Prices fell by 0.21 per cent to Rs 406.20 per kg in futures trading as participants engaged in reducing their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on subdued demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month April declined by 85 paise or 0.21 per cent to Rs 406.20 per kg in business turnover of four lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in February contracts eased by 55 paise, or 014 per cent to Rs 403.85 per kg in 383 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to sluggish demand at domestic spot market.
✍ LEAD Amid pick up in demand from consuming industries at spot market, lead prices were up by 0.29 per cent to Rs 156 per kg in futures trade as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in February edged up by 45 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 156 per kg in business turnover of 69 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in January contracts was up by 35 paise, or 0.22 per cent to Rs 156.60 per kg in 627 lots. Market analysts said fresh positions created by traders due to pick up in demand from battery-makers in the spot market, mainly led to rise in lead prices at futures trade.
✍ COPPER Copper prices rose by 0.12 per cent to Rs 380.90 per kg in futures trading on Friday as traders engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in February went up by 45 paise, or 0.12 per cent, to Rs 380.90 per kg in business turnover of 961 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month April was trading higher by 40 paise, or 0.10 per cent, to Rs 384.25 per kg in 5 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants on the back of rising demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market, mainly kept copper prices higher at futures trade.
✍ NICKEL Falling for the second day, nickel prices shed 0.24 per cent to Rs 699.60 per kg in futures market as participants engaged in reducing their positions amid subdued demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in February drifted lower by Rs 1.70, or 0.24 per cent to Rs 699.60 per kg in a business turnover of 3 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in January traded lower by Rs 1.10, or 0.16 per cent to Rs 695 per kg in 701 lots. Analysts said, offloading of positions by traders following easing demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly kept nickel prices lower at futures trade.
✍ ZINC Zinc prices drifted lower by 0.37 per cent to Rs 176.35 per kg in futures trade as traders engaged in trimming their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in January declined by 65 paise, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 176.35 per kg in a business turnover of 477 lots. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in February shed 40 paise, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 176.85 per kg in 2 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market, kept zinc prices down at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTALS – Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has proposed integrating the commodity spot and derivatives markets, stating in his Budget speech that the commodities markets require further reforms for the benefit of farmers. An expert committee will be constituted to study and promote creation of an operational and legal framework to integrate the spot and derivatives markets for commodities trading. E-NAM, the electronic integration of all Agriculture Produce Market Committees on a single national electronic platform, will be an integral part of such a framework. E-NAM, however, is yet to replicate Karnataka’s success in other states. The Central government Wednesday quietly withdrew a Rs. 4,500 crore subsidy that it gave to states for distribution of subsidised sugar through the public distribution system which many said would from now onwards be the responsibility of the states. The allocation for 2017-18 under the head has been lowered to Rs. 200 crore which is for payment of pending liabilities under the programme. The word “subsidy”, in fact, found mention only once in the finance minister’s speech when he referred to credit linked subsidy for 1000 mini-labs to be set up by qualified local entrepreneurs called Krishi Vigyan Kendras for testing
of soil samples and their nutrient level. The overall subsidy burden on the government would go up marginally by 5 per cent in 2017-18. Food subsidy is estimated to be about 8 per cent higher next year at Rs. 145,338.60 crore. � SUGAR Sugar production updates continue to point downwards. With Maharashtra and Karnataka, two important states for production, being impacted by low rain, the output is likely to decline for the second year. This has led to a rally in sugar prices. CARE Ratings says prices were Rs. 35-Rs. 35.8 a kg between September 1 and December 22, 2016. These rose to Rs. 37.5 a kg by January 6 and a high of Rs. 39 a kg on January 13. This was reflected in stock prices; many companies based in Uttar Pradesh, such as Balrampur Chini and Dwarikesh Sugar, hit 52-week highs. Raw sugar futures on ICE rallied to a 2-1/2-month high on Friday, on support from chart-based buy signals and expectations for demand from top consumer India, while the market made its biggest weekly rise in four weeks. New York cocoa prices crept down to the lowest in four years, as abundant supplies attracted speculative selling, while coffee futures were mixed. March raw sugar futures SBc1 settled up 0.56 cent, or 2.7 percent, at 21.11 cents per lb, attracting a flurry of buying around the settlement window that triggered buy stops above the key level of 21 cents. This took prices to 21.4 cents, the highest since mid-November for the spot contract, which closed the week up 3.8 percent. "It's partly technical; there's investor interest. It's partially expectation that India could do something, referring to potential that the country could lower import duties later this year. "And now, with a lower stocks-to-use ratio, the market is much more sensitive to any increase in demand or potential supply disruptions." Sugar prices spurted by up to Rs. 120 per quintal at the wholesale market in the national capital on Thursday following brisk buying by retailers and bulk consumers to meet new month demand. Marketmen attributed sharp rise in sweetener prices to increased offtake by bulk consumers and retailers, driven by the beginning of a new month and ongoing wedding season. Besides, tight supplies from mills too supported the rise in prices, they added. Sugar ready M-30 and S-30 prices shot up by Rs 120 each to end at Rs 4,050-4,120 and Rs 4,040-4,110 per quintal. Mill delivery M-30 and S-30 prices also rose notably by Rs 60 each to settle at Rs 3,700-3,800 and Rs 3,690-3,790 per quintal. In the millgate section, sugar Mawana, Thanabhavan, Budhana, Dhanora, Dorala and Modinagar flared up by Rs 75 each to Rs 3,750, Rs 3,745, Rs 3,750, Rs 3,745, Rs 3,750 and Rs 3,740 per quintal.
� COTTON CAKE Cotton cake are currently trading at Rs. 2,295 a quintal. While prices have seen a sharp rally, demand from stockists has started fading. Also, profit booking is expected at higher levels, which coupled with higher arrivals of Kapas and in turn cotton seed, could lead to prices moving lower towards Rs. 2,260 a quintal.
✍ MUSTARD SEED The price of mustard seeds at Jaipur is hovering near Rs. 4,207 a quintal. For the current week, prices are expected to head towards Rs 4,150-4,100 and in the medium-term below Rs 4,000 a quintal. Prospects of a 15.4 per cent year-on-year increase in production to 6.78 million tonnes might weigh on prices. Negative crush margins are weighing on demand from processors as well.
✍ WHEAT Wheat sowing has neared the final stages and the acreage under the main rabi crop has gone up by 7.87 per cent to 315.55 lakh hectare with rains in some states boosting crop prospects. Barring rice and coarse cereals, other crops were covered in wider area in the ongoing rabi season of 2016-17 crop year (JulyJune). Sowing of rabi (winter) crops begins from October and harvesting from April. As per the data released by the Agriculture Ministry, wheat acreage has increased to 315.55 lakh hectare as on today of the current rabi season, from 292.52 lakh hectare in the year-ago period.
✍ MENTHA OIL Mentha oil futures fell 0.74 per cent to Rs 1,007.10 per kg on Monday as speculators locked-in gains at prevailing levels amid increased arrivals in the physical market from major producing belts. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month declined by Rs 7.60, or 0.74 per cent, to Rs 1,007.10 per kg in a business turnover of 32 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in February was trading lower by Rs 4.60, or 0.45 per cent, to Rs 1,023.30 per kg in 102 lots. The fall in mentha futures was mostly due to profit- booking by speculators after recent gains and increased supplies in the spot markets against sluggish demand, analysts said.
✍ CRUDE PALM OIL Prices weakened by 0.54 per cent to Rs 572.80 per 10 kg in futures market as participants reduced their exposure due to subdued demand in the spot market against ample stocks. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for far-month February delivery was trading down by Rs 3.10, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 572.80 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 520 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in January traded lower by Rs 1.40, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 585.40 per 10 kg in 174 lots.Market analysts said trimming of positions by traders following sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies mainly led the crude palm oil prices to trade lower at futures trade.
✍ CARDAMOM Prices drifted lower by 2.01 per cent to Rs 1,460.50 per kg in futures market as traders trimmed their holdings amid sluggish demand at the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position following increased arrivals from producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for March delivery declined by Rs 29.90, or 2.01 per cent, to Rs 1,460.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 116 lots. The spice for delivery in far-month February was trading down by Rs 15.50, or 1.06 per cent, to Rs 1,449.70 per kg, with a trading volume of 169 lots. Traders said, offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts, mainly led to the decline in cardamom prices at futures trade.
✍ WHEAT Prices rose by 0.11 per cent to Rs. 1,865 per quintal in futures trading as speculators built up fresh positions driven by uptick in demand at the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in February was trading higher by Rs. 2, or 0.11 per cent to Rs. 1,865 per quintal with an open interest of 5,550 lots. Analysts said speculative positions created by traders amid pick up in demand from flour mills in the spot market helped wheat prices to rise at futures trade.
✍ REFINED SOYA OIL Refined soya oil prices moved down by 0.49 per cent to Rs. 700.55 per 10 kg in futures trade as participants trimmed their positions amid sluggish demand in the spot market against ample stocks. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in February month declined by Rs. 3.45, or 0.49 per cent to Rs. 700.55 per 10 kg with an open interest of 41,000 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in March contracts shed Rs 3.15, or 0.45 per cent to Rs 690.55 per 10 kg in 31,020 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders amid tepid in demand in the spot market against adequate stocks stocks position on increased supplies from growing regions, mainly influenced refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
✍ SOYBEAN The rising trend in coconut KP oil remained unabated for the third straight day today in Vidarbha region of Central Maharashtra as prices rise further on increased buying by local traders for the ongoing festival season, amid a firm trend in producing belts. Trading activity in edible and non-edible oil remained weak as no trader was mood for any commitment, watching the Union budget, sources said Wednesday.
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