Commodity research report 12 february 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD. Monday, February 12, 2018

MCX Market Wrap-up

Aluminum

28-Feb-18

Previous Close 141.7

Copper

28-Feb-18

452.75

452.7

462.2

432.3

432.9

-4.38%

44.63%

-4.63%

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4186

4166

4197

3795

3807

-9.05%

-36.20%

-2.20%

Gold

5-Apr-18

30336

30250

30714

29805

30009

-1.08%

-19.14%

-11.78%

Lead

28-Feb-18

171.9

171.2

171.85

160.2

163.6

-4.83%

-19.96%

7.70%

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

184.9

183.9

185.7

166.9

167.2

-9.57%

52.18%

-20.12%

Nickel

28-Feb-18

866.8

861.2

886.2

822.1

834

-3.78%

0.21%

-29.89%

Silver

5-Mar-18

38651

38480

39114

37540

37578

-2.78%

20.18%

-33.46%

Zinc

28-Feb-18

226.4

228.7

216.6

218.15

-3.64%

-12.60%

28.30%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

141.25

141.7

136.8

137.1

Change in Change in OI Change in Price (in %) (in %) Volume (in %) -3.25% -9.66% 86.25%

NCDEX Market Wrap-up

Castor Seed

20-Mar-18

Previous Close 4327

Chana

20-Mar-18

3803

3788

3880

3777

3819

0.42%

-4.03%

-13.07%

Dhaniya Cottonseed Oil Cake

20-Apr-18

5809

5820

5860

5655

5712

-1.70%

1.17%

-22.59%

20-Mar-18

1767.5

1758

1760

1675

1740.5

-1.55%

10.16%

50.10%

Guargum5

20-Mar-18

10540

10442

10520

9763

9946

-5.97%

-2.80%

-30.04%

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

4768

4732.5

4411

4497

-6.03%

-7.30%

9.21%

Jeera

20-Mar-18

16590

16640

16980

16300

16420

-1.04%

-5.83%

-35.60%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

980

977

1001

966

983.5

0.36%

-9.09%

74.75%

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4150

4147

4162

4075

4123

-0.65%

-17.29%

-18.48%

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

748.05

747

749

739.3

744.15

-0.52%

-17.53%

92.86%

Soyabean

20-Mar-18

3670

3658

3831

3492

3790

3.17%

-3.11%

115.82%

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7148

7150

7388

7040

7278

1.79%

1.58%

-47.71%

Mentha Oil

28-Feb-18

1571

1562

1572.5

1395.5

1436.5

-9.36%

-28.08%

-23.57%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

4302

4364

4158

4177

Change in Price (in %) -3.59%

Change in Change in OI (in %) Volume (in %) -9.47% 48.45%

Currency Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

USDINR

26-Feb-18

64.2425

64.4000

64.6475

64.1850

64.5275

0.44%

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

91.435

91.0475

91.0500

89.2400

89.675

-1.92%

EURINR

26-Feb-18

80.3475

80.5975

78.8425

79.125

-1.52%

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

58.0575

58.6500

59.5425

58.3850

59.165

1.91%

Currency Pair

Continued……

International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

LME

2213

2214

2214.75

2120.75

2123.75

-4.03%

Copper

COMEX

3.182

3.216

3.24

3.021

3.025

-4.93%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

65.07

65.1

65.4

58.07

59.2

-9.02%

Gold

COMEX

1335.7

1334.6

1349.3

1309

1315.7

-1.50%

Lead

LME

2669

2668

2673.5

2480.5

2537.25

-4.94%

NYMEX

2.863

2.825

2.88

2.576

2.584

-9.75%

Nickel

LME

13512.5

13455

13817.5

12790

12950

-4.16%

Silver

COMEX

16.555

16.955

16.13

16.31

-1.48%

Zinc

LME

3511.5

3507.5

3549.75

3352

3370.25

-4.02%

Commodity Aluminum

Natural Gas

LME Inventory Update Commodity

Closing (As on 9 Feb 18) in Tonnes

Closing (As on 2 Feb 18) in Tonnes

% Change

Copper

304675

316100

-3.61%

Nickel

355266

343896

3.31%

Lead

133250

126950

4.96%

Zinc

170700

162725

4.90%

Aluminium

1080550

1058175

2.11%

Continued…….

Upcoming Economic Events Calender Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

50.2B

-23.0B

Monday, February 12, 2018 Tentative

USD

OPEC Monthly Report Tuesday, February 13, 2018

0:30

USD

Federal Budget Balance (Jan)

14:30

USD

IEA Monthly Report

15:00

GBP

CPI (MoM) (Jan)

-0.60%

0.40%

15:00

GBP

CPI (YoY) (Jan)

2.90%

3.00%

15:00

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Jan)

0.70%

0.10%

18:30

USD

FOMC Member Mester Speaks Wednesday, February 14, 2018

19:00

USD

Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)

1.70%

1.80%

19:00

USD

Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)

0.20%

0.30%

19:00

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

0.20%

0.40%

19:00

USD

CPI (MoM) (Jan)

0.30%

0.10%

19:00

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

0.50%

0.40%

20:30

USD

Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec)

0.40%

21:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

3.189M

1.895M

Thursday, February 15, 2018 19:00

USD

Core PPI (MoM) (Jan)

0.20%

-0.10%

19:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

229K

221K

19:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

22.1

22.2

19:00

USD

Philly Fed Employment (Feb)

19:00

USD

PPI (MoM) (Jan)

0.40%

-0.10%

19:45

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)

0.20%

0.90%

16.8

Friday, February 16, 2018 15:00

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

0.60%

-1.60%

15:00

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

0.60%

-1.50%

19:00

USD

Building Permits (MoM) (Jan)

19:00

USD

Building Permits (Jan)

19:00

USD

Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan)

19:00

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan)

-0.20% 1.310M

1.300M

0.30%

-0.10% -8.20%

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

26-Feb-18

65.4000

64.9000

64.7000

64.4500

64.2500

64.0000

63.5500

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

93.6000

91.8000

90.7500

90.0000

88.9500

88.2000

86.4000

EURINR

26-Feb-18

83.0000

81.2500

80.1500

79.5000

78.4000

77.7500

76.0000

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

61.3500

60.2000

59.7000

59.0500

58.5500

57.9000

56.7500

MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

31-Jan-18

148.35

143.45

140.30

138.55

135.40

133.65

128.75

Copper

28-Feb-18

502.25

472.35

452.6

442.45

422.7

412.55

382.65

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4737

4335

4071

3933

3669

3531

3129

Gold

5-Feb-18

31994

31085

30547

30176

29638

29267

28358

Lead

31-Jan-18

188.5

176.85

170.2

165.2

158.55

153.55

141.90

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

210.85

192.05

179.6

173.25

160.8

154.45

135.65

Nickel

31-Jan-18

976

912

873

847

809

783

719

Silver

5-Mar-18

41225

39651

38615

38077

37041

36503

34929

Zinc

31-Jan-18

245.35

233.25

225.7

221.15

213.6

209.05

196.95

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

20-Mar-18

4645

4439

4308

4233

4102

4027

3821

Chana

20-Mar-18

4031

3928

3874

3825

3771

3722

3619

Dhaniya

20-Apr-18

6152

5947

5830

5742

5625

5537

5332

Cotton Seed Oilcake

20-Mar-18

1895

1810

1775

1725

1690

1640

1555

Guargum5

20-Mar-18

11590

10833

10390

10076

9633

9319

8562

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

5190

4868

4683

4547

4361

4225

3904

Jeera

20-Mar-18

17927

17247

16833

16567

16153

15887

15207

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1054

1019

1001

984

966

949

914

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4294

4207

4165

4120

4078

4033

3946

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

764

754

749

744

739

734

725

Soyabean

20-Mar-18

4382

4043

3917

3704

3578

3365

3026

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7931

7583

7431

7235

7083

6887

6539

Mentha Oil

28-Feb-18

1822

1645

1541

1468

1364

1291

1114

BULLION Gold prices plunged on Friday as the dollar strengthened after the latest U.S. jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than forecast in January and wage growth accelerated. Gold futures for April delivery settled down 0.91% at $1,335.70 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, prices were down 1.47%. The U.S. economy created 200,000 new jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday and average hourly earnings rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the most since 2009.

BASE METALS

Zinc prices surged to the highest since 2007 on January 29th 2018 as falling stockpiles suggested tight supplies, drives zinc prices to new highs. Shortages of refined metal have seen stocks in LME approved warehouses fall to their lowest since 2008 at 176,275 tonnes. Aluminium ended up 0.3 percent at $2,225, having earlier hit a twoweek low as rising stockpiles in top producer China reinforce worries that the Chinese market remains in surplus despite capacity cuts.

ENERGY Oil prices finished lower on Friday to tally a loss for the week, as traders weighed a steady increase in U.S. output against OPEC's ongoing efforts to drain the market of excess supplies. For the week, WTI crude lost roughly 1%, while Brent declined about 2.8%. However at MCX due to weak rupee against US dollar it dropped only 0.1 per cent.

Natural gas futures plunged more than 8 per cent for the last week at NYMEX and around 7.5 per cent at MCX, after weather forecasts showed that temperatures will not be as cold as previously expected.

SPICES Slight weak trend prevailed for Jeer last week as lack of strong demand amidst expected rising arrivals of the new crop kept pressure on prices. Shifting from Dhaniya to Jeer due to the latter high prices last year ensured 35% rise in acreage for Jeer in Gujaratas per traders. Production in Gujarat estimated at around 2.75 lakh tonnes (approximately 50 lakh bags weighing 55 kg each) last year is likely to touch 4.12 lakh tonnes this year as per traders. Turmeric found strong psychological support at 7000 as markets recovered after the recent fall. Sentiments still have not turned positive as new crop arrivals pick up with limited demand as of now, even as short term recovery gets noted.

OIL & OILSEEDS Improving spot demand for soy meal and frequent reports of lower crop size of India and further drop in Argentine crop production outlook helped soy bean to recover early week losses and finish on a strong note. We expect

same fundamentals to continue influencing soy bean prices and In case soy meal demand remains firm then expect the new highs in coming sessions. Soya oil is currently trading in a moderate range and it seems that due to rising prices of soy bean and soy meal, the physical market participants are forced to price the commodity lower, just to maintain the crushing activity economically feasible.

GUAR COMPLEX Profit booking at the higher levels brought some dips to the rising rates for Guar even as overall fundamentals looked strong from a medium to long term point of view. Guarseed is facing strong resistance at 5000 as Gum trades near the 10000 mark. Medium term trend remains up due to rising concerns on production front from recent crop losses due to excess rains in Rajasthan just few months back.

OTHERS As per the latest sowing data the sowing area covered is roughly 51.4 lakh ha so far versus 57.8 lakh ha last year. Going by trade sources roughly 7-8 Lakh bags are available in the domestic market in the form of stocked inventory and which will be easily offsetting the requirements till February March i.e. arrival of the new season crop. Market are however likely to recover this week. Falling production prospects from reports of crop damage in India had supported prices earlier. The Agriculture Ministry estimated acreage during 2017-18 season (Oct-Sep) will rise 12% last year. Yield is also likely to go up in view of good monsoon witnessed across all cotton growing regions. Copyright ÂŠ 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

SILVER Silver prices reacted towards south with negative returns of 2.88 percent last week. However it is a choppy range where prices are struggling for last one month. As the counter has got support near Rs.37500 level or $16.20/oz mark which has been a strong ground area below the level we can see further selling pressure. Daily stochastic oscillator has come in to selling territory. On the higher side prices may retest upside resistance zone of Rs.37800-38000 zone.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 37500

TARGET

37000

STOP LOSS

37800

ZINC Last week, Nickel prices opened lower and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 216.60. Previously prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14) has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone placed around 830.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

BUY

ENTRY PRICE

ABOVE 220

TARGET

223

STOP LOSS

218.60

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

DHANIYA The Dhaniya is long to medium term inbearish phase .Currently Dhaniya is showing some corrective move with less volume indicating negative pressure in it. Caution note selling at lower levels seems risky we advise to sell Dhaniya at higher level. The oscillator is on SELL signal and Dhaniya is coming down from overbought level For short term Dhaniya is in sell position. Support for the Dhaniya is 5572. Resistance for the Dhaniya is 5860.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 5655

TARGET

5535

STOP LOSS

5719

CASTOR SEED Overall trend of the Castor seed new is bearish for medium long term .Currently Castor seed new is in strong down trend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume. The Castor seed new is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Castor seed new is in hold short position. Immediate support for Castor seed new is 4050 .Resistance for the Castor seed new is 4270.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular ACTION ENTRY PRICE

Details SELL BELOW 4072

TARGET

3952

STOP LOSS

4136

Calls of e Week (FOREX)

GBPINR Last week we good saw profit booking in GBPINR Feb Futures from the higher levels and it made a low of 89.2400 during the week. It closed at 89.6750 with the overall loss of 1.92% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in and below the level of 89.1400, it can test the level of 88.5525 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 89.5525.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular ACTION ENTRY PRICE

Details SELL BELOW 89.1400

TARGET

88.5525

STOP LOSS

89.5525

JPYINR Last week JPYINR Feb futures started the week on flat note and after that traded positive for the most part of the week. It made a high of 59.5425 during the week and closed at 56.1650 with the overall gain of 1.12% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it as it sustaining near to major resistance level and above the level of 59.30000, it can test the level of 59.8250. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 58.9925.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular ACTION ENTRY PRICE

Details BUY ABOVE 59.3000

TARGET

59.8250

STOP LOSS

58.9925

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DISCLOSURE (प्रकटीकयण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी कंऩननमां अनस ु ंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कंऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के जायीकताा के साथ जड ु ी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनऩ ु ारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कंऩनी औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रे ड नहीं कयें गे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को केवर याम के रूऩ भें दे खें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पैसरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कंऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकंऩनी के खखराप कोई भक ु दभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX: (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ): The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड द्वाया ननमव ु त हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी

ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩनू ता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफधं धत नहीं होगा।

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(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company, (फ) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोगी मा उनर्के कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम र्कंऩनी र्की प्रनतबनू तमों भें एर्क प्रनतशत मा उससे अचधर्क र्के वास्तववर्क / पामदे भंद स्वालभत्व नह ं हैं |

(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance; (स) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोचगमों र्को अनुसंधान रयऩोटट र्के प्रर्काशन र्के सभम मा सावटजननर्क रूऩ से उऩस्स्थत होने र्के सभम र्कोई अन्म बौनतर्क संघषट नह ं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION: ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण: High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।

ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनू ता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

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(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

(द) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड ववषम र्कंऩनी र्के लरए र्कबी बी ववऩणन (भार्केट भेकर्कंग) गनतववचध भें शालभर नह ं यहा है ।