BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold prices traded lower on last week on the account of profit booking at higher levels while strengthening dollar index will further lower gold prices in the near term. The Gold is on an upward trajectory as investors look for a safe haven in an increasingly uncertain world. Despite the strength of the dollar. Gold typically rises when there is fear and uncertainty in stock markets. But the stock market has not been following its typical relationship to gold by selling off. Since Trump’s presidential win in early November. We have had a bit of a triple-top development in gold over the last three days, just below 29525-29680 – that is the level that’s going to offer some resistance. “We still think that the gold market is targeting 30900-31000 level to the upside so long as we stay above 28890-29050 support.” The precious Metal is Expected to trade in positive note in this week the crucial levels for Gold is 29580 is up side and 27800 is Down side
GOLD CHART-
Chart Details - The Bollinger Bands show price giving support from the middle band a good test and I expect price to eventually move back up to the upper band and push even higher into that band to set up the final rally high. We have been expecting the 5 point broadening top to morph into a more bearish 7 point top and I believe we now have the point 6 low in place at 29700-29880. It is possible for one last marginal low although I personally favour a higher low to form. Let’s see. The MCX Gold it is Expected to touch the level of 30900 in next week Trading Session.
Monday, 13 February 2017
SILVER - There are three crucial reasons why the silver price will outperform the gold price when the highly inflated paper markets disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and derivatives. While many precious metals investors are frustrated by the ability of the Fed and Central Banks to continue to prop up the markets, the longer they postpone the day of reckoning, the worse the collapse. The Significance levels for Silver is 42090-43160 is up side and 40150-39890 is Down side.
Detail of Chart - The daily chart of the Silver shows it making a stair-step series of lower highs and lower lows, following the path of the declining 50-day moving average. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern began forming last November, with the low that month forming the left shoulder, the December low defining the head, and this month’s price action marking the right shoulder. Previous resistance in the $ 16.30 area delineates the neckline, and it was successfully retested in Friday’s strong session. The Significance Levels for Silver is 40890-41256 is Down Side and 43280-443860 is Up side silver is Expected to trade in Bullish trend for next trading Week.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
ALUMINIUM
30-DEC-2016
129
127
125
125
123
456
438
420
414
402
COPPER
28-FEB-2016
S1
S2
S3
S4
121
119
117
396
384
366
348
123
CRUDE OIL
19-OCT-2016
3827
3748
3669
3639
3590
3560
3511
3432
3353
GOLD
03-FEB-2016
30077
29733
29389
29230
29045
28886
28701
28357
28013
174
169
164
163
159
158
154
149
144
LEAD
30-DEC-2016
NATURAL GAS
27-DEC-2015
222
216
210
207
204
201
198
192
186
NICKEL
30-DEC-2016
767
746
725
718
704
697
683
662
641
43318
42958
42015
41432
40489
39546
208
201
198
194
191
187
180
173
SILVER ZINC
03-MARCH-2016 45204 44261 30-DEC-2016
215
42375
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-DEC-2016
132
129
126
125
123
122
120
117
114
461
441
421
415
401
395
381
361
341
4120
3936
3752
3681
3568
3497
3384
3200
3016
30638
30149
29660
29416
29171
28927
28682
28193
27704
COPPER CRUDE OIL GOLD
28-FEB-2016 19-OCT-2016 03-FEB-2016
LEAD
30-DEC-2016
180
173
166
163
159
156
152
145
138
NATURAL GAS
27-DEC-2015
242
230
218
211
206
199
194
182
170
NICKEL
30-DEC-2016
783
756
729
720
702
693
675
648
621
42958
42375
42015
41432
40489
39546
200
192
188
180
168
156
SILVER ZINC
03-MARCH-2016 45204 44261 30-DEC-2016
228
216
43318 204
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT 2016
70.95
69.85
68.64
67.67
66.42
65.49
66.12
65.88
65.06
EURINR
26-OCT 2016
78.26
76.27
74.52
72.35
71.04
70.98
69.71
68.05
GBPINR
26-OCT 2016
90.25
88.24
86.38
84.02
80.08
79.01
77.98
75.58
73.18
JPYINR
26-OCT 2016
63.28
60.74
59.34
57.78
56.86
56.04
55.69
55.06
54.88
67.79
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
26-OCT2016
73.98
72.46
68.44
68.12
66.52
66.04
65.15
64.38
63.17
EURINR
26-OCT2016
79.48
77.51
75.82
73.95
70.68
69.25
68.01
67.64
65.59
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
98.56
96.74
92.34
88.82
82.26
80.08
78.28
76.28
74.88
JPYINR
26-OCT2016
69.84
67.98
65.17
63.28
59.44
57.34
55.75
53.88
51.03
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
SYOREFIDR
20-JAN-2016
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
735
725
715
709
705
699
695
685
675
SYBEANIDR
20-JAN-2016
3102
3069
3036
3016
3003
2983
2970
2937
2904
RMSEED
20-JAN-2016
3927
3893
3859
3838
3825
3804
3791
3757
3723
JEERAUNJHA
20-JAN-2016
17938
17668
17398
17247
17128
16977
16858
16588
16318
GUARSEED10
20-JAN-2016
3362
3319
3276
3251
3233
3208
3190
3147
3104
TMC
20-APR-2016
7155
7045
6935
6869
6828
6759
6715
6605
6495
DATE
R4
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-JAN-2016
758
741
724
713
707
696
690
673
656
SYBEANIDR
20-JAN-2016
3216
3194
3082
3038
3015
2971
2948
2881
2814
RMSEED
20-JAN-2016
3980
3929
3878
3848
3827
3797
3776
3725
3674
JEERAUNJHA
20-JAN-2016
19338
18648
17958
17527 17268
16837
16578
15888
15198
GUARSEED10
20-JAN-2016
3558
3456
3354
3291
3252
3189
3150
3048
2946
TMC
20-APR-2016
7481
7261
7041
6923
6821
6703
6601
6381
6161
DATE
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) Gold prices steadied on Friday, but remained below the week’s three-month highs as the dollar pared back some of the gains made in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a major tax announcement. Gold for February delivery settled down 0.15% at $ 1,235.0 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal was still 1.3% higher for the week. On Wednesday, gold reached its highest level since mid-November at $ 1,243.9. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 100.71 not far from the eleven-day highs of 101.02 set earlier Friday. The index ended the week with gains of 0.95%, the largest weekly percentage gain since mid-December after remarks from Trump indicted that his administration would soon reform tax policy. Trump said Thursday he would be announcing something over the next two or three weeks that would be “phenomenal” in terms of tax. A strong dollar is typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $ 17.95 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week with gains of 2.69% . Copper was up 4.65% at $ 2.777 a pound and ended the week up 6.03% amid fears over a supply disruption. Workers at BHP Billiton Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, went on strike on Thursday, bringing production to a standstill. Platinum was down 0.77% at $1,014.3 late Friday. In the week ahead, the U.S., the UK and China are to release what will be closely watched data on inflation. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify to Congress for the first time since Donald Trump entered the White House. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, February 13 Japan is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. Tuesday, February 14 China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation. Germany is to put out a preliminary estimate of fourth quarter growth, while the euro zone is to release a revised estimate of fourth quarter growth. The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment. The U.K. is to publish data on consumer price inflation. The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington to testify on the bank’s latest monetary policy report. Separately, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak at an event in Houston.
Wednesday, February 15 The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report. The U.S. is to release a raft of economic data, including reports on inflation, retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the bank’s latest monetary policy report to the House Banking Committee, in Washington.
Thursday, February 16 Australia is to publish its latest jobs report. The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting. The U.S. is to publish reports on building permits, housing starts, jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, February 17 New Zealand is to publish a report on retail sales. The U.K. is also to report on retail sales. Canada is to round up the week with figures on foreign securities purchases. Gold steadied on Friday, but remained below this week's three-month top as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields came off their highs after the currency initially jumped on U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a major tax announcement. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.02 percent at $1,230.78 an ounce by 2:24 p.m. EST (1924 GMT), while U.S. gold futures GCv1 for April delivery settled down 0.07 percent at $1,235.90. On Wednesday, spot gold reached its highest since mid-November at $1,244.67. Gold prices were on track for a second weekly gain, up 1 percent from late last Friday. The dollar .DXY pared gains against a currency basket on Friday after earlier strength from U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to announce a major tax plan within weeks cooled some market nerves, reinvigorating dollar bulls. Wall Street hit record highs for a second day on hopes of the business-friendly tax cuts. "The dollar puts a little pressure on gold however the strength in the equity markets and the strength in the other precious metals is lifting gold up. gold prices moved into positive territory. "It's really the intermarket relationship that's
stabilizing gold right now." Silver XAG= was up 1.5 percent at $17.91 an ounce, after tapping $ 17.99, the highest since Nov. 11. Palladium XPD= rose 1.6 percent to $ 782, after rising to $786.40, the highest since Jan. 25. "Both silver and palladium are up on the day as an improving China signals a better global economy and gives support to the more industrial metals of the group," said aid Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of Heraeus Metal Management in New York. Earlier in the session, however, gold prices were lower. "The Trumpflation trade is back on the agenda, which is negative for gold. U.S. economic data has also stoked talk that the Federal Reserve would press ahead with U.S. interest rate hikes sooner rather than later. U.S. import prices rose more than expected in January, while initial jobless claims dropped unexpectedly last week to the lowest in nearly 43 years. is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The major physical markets in Asia were mixed this week as Indian jewelers stocked up for wedding season, while rising prices sidelined buyers elsewhere. Platinum XPT= was down 0.6 percent at $1,006.10. Gold prices tumbled on Friday, as the U.S. dollar remained broadly supported following recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump on tax reform and an upbeat jobless claims report added to optimism over the strength of the U.S. economy. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were down 1.12% at $1,223.00, the lowest since February 6. The April contract ended Thursday’s session 0.22% lower at $ 1,236.80 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $ 1,206.20, the low of February 3 and resistance at $1,243.50, Thursday’s high. The dollar strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks. During a meeting with airline CEOs on Thursday, Trump promised a “phenomenal” tax plan, without giving any specific details of the plan. The comments came after the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 234,000 in the week ending February 4. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 100.69, just off a two-week high of 100.75 hit overnight. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for March delivery lost 1.01% to $17.562 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery gained 0.77% to $2.675 a pound. Copper prices remained under pressure however, as workers at the Escondida copper mine in Chile, the largest in the world, launched a strike on Thursday. The workers union has warned that the strike could be lengthy, potentially affecting global supplies. Chile is the world’s biggest producer of the red metal, providing almost a third of the world's supply. Asian gold demand was mixed this week with Indian jewellers stocking up for the wedding season while rising prices kept buyers on the sidelines elsewhere. After delaying purchases last month in anticipation of an import duty cut in the federal budget, jewellers in India have started rebuilding inventories on the back of an uptick in retail demand due to the wedding season. "The uncertainty over the duty cut is over. Jewellers are building inventory. Last week, the Indian government presented its budget for the 2017/18
financial year, but didn't change the import duty on gold. bullion industry had urged the government to reduce the duty to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised it to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit. "Retail demand has been improving due to the wedding season. Prices in the world market have jumped in the last few weeks, but comparatively, Indian prices rose less due to an appreciation in the rupee. In the local market, gold MAUc1 was trading around 28,952 rupees per 10 gram on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees in December, the lowest since Feb. 2, 2016. Dealers in the world's second-largest consumer of the metal were charging a premium of up to $3 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, compared with a premium of $ 2 last week. The domestic price includes the 10 percent import tax. "Demand for coins and bars is still weak. Investors are more interested in equities," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. Meanwhile, rising prices took the sheen off gold in other regions of Asia. "The physical side is still is very slow as people have to adjust to prices at this level. There was not much buying from China too. Premiums in China, the top consumer, were $7-$8 over international spot prices, while premiums in Hong Kong and Singapore dropped slightly to 80 cents to $1.20 from last week's $1-$1.40. In Japan, prices were at a discount of 75 cents, due to increasing selling volume, said a Tokyo-based trader. Gold slipped on Thursday from a three-month high in the previous session after robust U.S. economic data pointed to a stronger economy, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates. The data showing rising U.S. wholesale inventories and an unexpectedly low number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits also pushed up the dollar .DXY and U.S. bond yields US10YT=RR . A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher interest rates would lift yields further. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.85 percent at $1,231.03 an ounce by 3:53 p.m. EST , while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled down 0.2 percent at $1,236.80. "If people were betting on the Fed being more relaxed and rates being lower for longer, this has muddied that picture. Still, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a voter on policy this year, told reporters it is reasonable to expect the Fed to raise rates three times this year. gold striking $1,244.67, its highest since Nov. 11, on Wednesday, some investors had turned cautious and were cashing in their bets on higher prices. Gold has risen about 10 percent from a mid-December low as political risk in Europe and the United States has driven demand for bullion as a safe haven. Those worries were fueled on Thursday by official data that showed Germany's trade surplus climbed to a record high in 2016, setting the scene for conflict between Berlin and Washington after Trump's top trade adviser last week accused Berlin of exploiting a "grossly undervalued" euro to gain trading advantage. about a possible trade and currency war therefore seem justified and are likely to keep demand for gold at a high level. Adding support to prices, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, increased its bullion holdings for a sixth day on Wednesday. "We see gold as relatively underpriced, given the rally in commodities and high level of political uncertainty. In other precious metals, platinum XPT= was down 0.2 percent at $1,012.99 an ounce. The metal used in jewelry and autocatalysts touched $1,028.50, its highest since Oct. 3, earlier in the session. Spot silver XAG= fell
by 0.9 percent to $17.62 an ounce, while palladium XPD= was up 0.2 percent at $770. Gold rose to a three-month peak on Wednesday, as political risks posed by elections in Europe and worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies stoked safe haven demand. Investors are concerned about the strong showing in the French presidential race of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has promised to take France out of the euro zone and to hold a referendum on European Union membership. The euro EUR= recovered after falling against the dollar on political risks, as the single currency gained from investors' wariness over Trump's protectionism and immigration policy and his hints that he would prefer a weaker dollar. There's underlying demand for gold as a hedge against political uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic.Retracements have been quite shallow the past couple of weeks, especially the signal that gold wasn't going down when the dollar started going up. Spot gold XAU= rose 0.5 percent at $ 1,239.27 an ounce by 2:45 p.m. EST, after rising to its highest since Nov. 11 at $ 1,244.67. "This discussion over the immigration ban and the court fight is leaving investors in a realm of uncertainty which is also leaving room for them to take on new gold positions or to reduce their shorts. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.3 percent at $ 1,239.50. Indicating heightened worries over the French elections, the gap between French 10-year government bond yields and their low-risk German equivalents was at its widest since November 2012. "Gold prices will continue to rise until mid-February on uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe. But once January CPI data is released, it will give an idea about the possibility of a rate hike in March. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose for a fifth straight session on Tuesday. Spot silver XAG= rose 0.3 percent to $ 17.76 an ounce, after marking its highest since Nov. 11 at $ 17.87. Gold prices were little changed in European morning trade on Tuesday, holding steady near the prior session's three-month high as investors sought the perceived safety of the yellow metal amid growing concerns over political risks in Europe and around the globe. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on 25 cents, or less than 0.1%, to $1,232.45 a troy ounce by 5:30AM ET, after rallying $ 11.30, or almost 1%, a day earlier. Prices of the yellow metal touched $ 1,237.50 on Monday, the most since November 11. Investors were largely focused on French politics, as far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen launched her presidential bid over the weekend, vowing to fight globalization and take France out of the euro zone. Apart from France, market players also have to factor in elections in other parts of the European Union this year. Dutch elections are in March followed by Germany in September. In Italy, another presidential election looms, even as former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi said he was willing to shelve his push for early voting. Traders also eyed political risk elements in the U.S., with President Donald Trump's administration on the back foot over its immigration and other policies. Headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. Investors often buy gold as a refuge against economic and political uncertainty. Gains were limited due to a stronger U.S. dollar, as dollar-priced commodities
become more expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback gains. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.8 % at 100.62 in early trade, pulling away from last week's two-month low of 99.19. Fed fund futures priced in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike in March. However, odds of a June increase was seen at more than 60 %. The Fed, which raised rates in December, has forecast three rate increases this year. However, traders remained unconvinced, with markets continuing to price in just two rate hikes during the course of this year. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery shed 8.1 cents, or 0.5%, to $ 17.61 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum dipped 0.3% to $ 1,011.00, while palladium dropped around 1.8% to $ 760.65 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures inched down 1.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $ 2.634 a pound. Gold prices gained in European morning trade on Monday, rising toward the highest level in about 12 weeks as investors scaled back expectations for a more aggressive pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a session peak of $1,227.00 a troy ounce, the most since November 16. It was last at $1,225.45 by 3:15AM ET, up $ 4.55, or around 0.4%. Prices of the yellow metal climbed 2.4% last week, its best weekly gain in seven months. The latest U.S. employment report showed that jobs growth beat expectations, but wage growth remained tepid, which will likely prompt the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach on raising interest rates this year. The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in January from the prior month, the Labor Department said Friday, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% from 4.7% in December, as more Americans joined the workforce. But average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in January from a year earlier, below expectations for a 0.3% rise and slowing from 0.2% in December. The small gain lowered the year-on-year increase in earnings to 2.5% from 2.8% in December. The weak wage growth was seen as weakening the case for near-term interest rate hikes. Fed fund futures priced in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike in March after the jobs data on Friday, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a June increase was seen at more than 60%. The Fed, which raised rates in December, has forecast three rate increases this year. However, traders remained unconvinced, with markets continuing to price in just two rate hikes during the course of this year. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 99.85 in early European trade, not far from last week's two-month low of 99.19. The greenback has been under pressure amid growing concern about the potential impact of the Trump Administration’s protectionist stance. Headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery jumped 9.9 cents, or 0.6%, to $17.57 a troy ounce. Gold ended slightly higher on Friday, after the latest U.S. jobs report showing weak wage growth last month dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. Gold for April delivery settled up 0.2% at $1,221.85 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Labor
Department said the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in January from the prior month, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% from 4.7% in December, as more Americans joined the workforce. But average hourly earnings rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in December. The slowdown in wage growth prompted speculation that the Fed will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. In its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday the Fed stuck to its view that the economy is strengthening, but gave no clear signal on the timing of its next rate hike as officials wait to assess the possible economic impact of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and recent remarks about currencies. The precious metal was 2.14% higher for the week, as the dollar remained under pressure amid concerns over Donald Trump's presidential style and a lack of clarity on rate hikes. Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $17.51 a troy ounce late Friday and ended the week with gains of 1.7%. Copper was trading at $ 2.61 a pound late Friday and ended the week down 2.86%, and platinum was up 0.73% on the day at $ 1,006.85 an ounce. In the coming week, China is to release data on service sector activity and trade, while a report on German factory orders will be in focus in the euro zone. The U.S. is to release monthly trade figures in what will be a thin week for economic data. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
� ENERGY Oil prices dipped on Monday on signs that global fuel markets remained bloated despite OPEC-led crude production cuts that have been more successful than most initially expected. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 56.55 per barrel at 0035 GMT, down 15 cents from their previous close. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 12 cents at $ 53.74 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia have agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of 2017 in a bid to rein in a global fuel supply overhang. There was widespread scepticism that all producers would actually make the promised cuts, but compliance with the announced reductions is now estimated to be around 90 percent. will be keenly awaiting the release today of OPEC's monthly report. If production cuts are coming through as suggested, we should see oil prices push higher. While traders said that crude was well supported in the lower to mid-$ 50s per barrel due to the curbs, they pointed to a host of reasons that were preventing prices from rising further unless production is cut deeper or for a longer period. In the United States, rising drilling activity is pushing up production and undermining OPEC's efforts to reduce output. Drillers added eight oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015, Baker Hughes BHI.N said on Friday. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs. Russia, which is participating in the cuts, there are signs that output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers shield their core export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies or by cutting into inventories. these trends, analysts say
that OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017. since global oil demand is expected to rise be between 1.3 million bpd and 1.5 million bpd in 2017, OPEC's conundrum is that the longer and deeper it cuts, the more it cedes market share to competitors, as seen in the two world's biggest oil consuming markets. In the United States, OPEC is facing the rising flood of shale driven production. In China, OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia has already been overtaken by Russia as the biggest oil supplier. Oil futures finished sharply higher on Friday, as traders cheered signs that global supply was beginning to tighten in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output. But prices barely logged a weekly gain, pressured by expectations for further growth in U.S. crude production. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery jumped $1.07, or about 2%, to settle at $56.70 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Despite Friday's strong gains, London-traded Brent futures scored a loss of 11 cents, or around 0.2%, on the week. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March rose 86 cents, or about 1.6%, to end at $53.86 a barrel by close of trade. For the week, New York-traded oil futures gained 3 cents, or less than 0.1%. OPEC has delivered more than 90% of pledged oil output curbs in January, according to figures the exporter group uses to monitor its supply, making a strong start to implementation of its first production cut in eight years. Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal has fallen to 29.92 million barrels per day last month. That amounts to 92% compliance, far higher than the initial 60% compliance with a 2009 OPEC deal. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months. The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%. OPEC is scheduled to publish its first assessment of its January production based on the secondary sources in its monthly oil market report on Monday. Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the low-to-mid-$ 50s over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers and expectations of a rebound in U.S. shale production. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 8 last week, the 134h gain in 15 weeks. That brought the total count to 591, the most since November 2015. The data raised concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for March rose 1.9 cents, or nearly 1.3% to $1.589 a gallon, the highest since January 17. It ended up about 2.3% for the week. March heating oil added 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to finish at $1.665 a gallon. For the week, the fuel gained less than 0.1%. Natural gas futures for March delivery sank 10.7 cents, or almost 3.5%, to an 11-week low of $ 3.034 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 1%. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Counties monthly report on Monday to gauge global supply and demand levels. Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, February 13 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets. Later in the day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its monthly update on domestic oil and natural-gas shale output. Tuesday, February 14 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Wednesday, February 15 The EIA is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles. Thursday, February 16 The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage. Friday, February 17 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
Oil prices rose on Friday after reports that OPEC members delivered more than 90 percent of the output cuts they pledged in a landmark deal that took effect in January. Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with production targets under the deal fell to 29.92 million barrels per day, according to the average assessments of the six secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor output, or 92 percent compliance. International Energy Agency - one of OPEC's six sources said the cuts in January equated to 90 percent of the agreed reductions in output, far higher than the initial 60 percent compliance with a 2009 OPEC deal. producers, notably Saudi Arabia, appearing to cut by more than required," the agency said in a report. Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 settled up $1.07, or 1.9 percent, at $56.70 a barrel. It touched a session high of $56.88. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 settled up 86 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $53.86 a barrel. Another increase in U.S. oil rigs limited gains in the afternoon. Drillers added eight oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total count up to 591, the most since October 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc BHI.N said. "From a psychological viewpoint, a big number to close above would be $54, and the rig count probably made that a little less likely, Crude has benefited from recent strength in gasoline
prices RBC1 as a glut seems to be gradually eroding. EIA/S futures 1RBc1 rose 1.3 percent on Friday to $1.59 a gallon. The IEA, which advises industrial nations on energy policy, said if current compliance levels hold, the global oil stocks overhang that has weighed on prices should fall by about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the next six months. The agency also raised global oil demand growth expectations for 2017 to 1.4 million bpd, up 100,000 bpd from its previous estimate. Nevertheless, producers will probably have to extend the production cuts beyond six months if they want to achieve their goal of balancing the oil market.
China's crude imports in January rose 27.5 percent from a year earlier to the third-highest volume ever, suggesting robust demand to fill storage and to make up the shortfall as domestic production continues to fall. The country is a key importer of West African oil. OPEC has delivered more than 90 percent of pledged oil output curbs in January, according to figures the exporter group uses to monitor its supply, making a strong start to implementation of its first production cut in eight years. Italy's Eni has lifted force majeure on Brass River crude oil exports from Nigeria, leaving only the Forcados crude oil grade under force majeure. Several Nigerian cargoes had traded, leaving roughly 20 remaining for March loading. Just one export grade, Forcados, was now under force majeure after ENI lifted the declaration against Brass River. Loading delays have plagued other grades, including Exxon's Qua Iboe, though the major was pressing offers for it as high as $1.50 per barrel above dated Brent. Nigeria's vice president met leaders in the oil-producing Delta region in an effort to reach a lasting peace deal with militants whose attacks had pushed output below 20-year lows in 2016.
ANGOLA Just two cargoes, a Sangos and a Pazflor, were left to trade for March loading, sources said. Most of the focus had turned to the April loading plan, which was scheduled for release by the middle of next week. India's IOC this week took a total of 3 million barrels of Nigerian crude, and one cargo of Angolan. Shell placed a cargo of EA, Glencore a cargo of Nigerian Okwuibome and Total a cargo of Akpo and Angola's CLOV into the tender, which sought crude for April 1-10 loading.
Eleven non-OPEC oil producers that joined a global deal to cut output to boost prices have delivered 40 percent of promised curbs in January, two OPEC sources said. The sources cited OPEC calculations based
on data from the International Energy Agency. OPEC's figures, reported earlier on Friday by Reuters, put its own compliance at 92 percent. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers agreed to cut oil production by a combined 1.8 million bpd in the first half of 2017 to boost prices and get rid of a supply glut. The lower compliance figure for non-OPEC to date is partly due to the phased implementation of the deal by Russia, the largest non-producer cooperating with OPEC. Russia said it would phase in its share of the cut gradually rather than in the first month of the agreement and in January lowered supply by 100,000 bpd. Moscow pledged to reduce output by 300,000 bpd in the agreement. An OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee due to meet in Vienna on Feb. 22 will look further at how to assess compliance with the deal. Non-OPEC delivers 40 pct of pledged oil curbs in January - OPEC sources. OPEC has delivered over 90 percent of pledged oil output curbs in January, according to figures the exporter group uses to monitor its supply, making a strong start in implementing its first production cut in eight years. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is cutting its crude output by about 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 to prop up oil prices LCOc1 and reduce a supply glut. Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal in January has fallen to 29.921 million bpd, according to the average assessments of the six secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its output seen by Reuters. This amounts to 92 percent compliance, according to an OPEC calculation. Compliance of 92 percent comfortably exceeds the initial 60 percent achieved when OPEC's previous deal to cut was implemented in 2009, and the OPEC figures add to indications that adherence so far has been high. OPEC is scheduled to publish its first assessment of January production based on the secondary-source figures in its monthly oil market report on Monday. The figures could be revised before they are published, sources said. Oil prices were stable early on Friday, with OPEC-led production cuts supporting the market while soaring U.S. fuel inventories were weighing on crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were trading at $53.08 per barrel at 0106 GMT, up 8 cents from their last settlement. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were up 3 cents at $ 55.66 a barrel. Both crude futures have traded within a $5 range since the beginning of the year, and traders said this was due to competing price drivers. "Oil prices continue to struggle to break out of the current range.. "The push and pull between competing forces in the crude oil market continued overnight. Despite the stronger U.S.-dollar .DXY and lingering concerns about U.S. inventories, traders returned their focus to the OPEC production cuts being implemented at the moment. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia have agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of 2017 in a bid to rein in a global fuel supply overhang. There was widespread scepticism that all producers would actually make the promised cuts, but compliance with the announced reductions is now estimated to be between 80 and 90 percent as especially OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia has enforced sharp production cuts. And this is likely to remain until the release of OPEC data next week.
Despite this, oil markets remain bloated as inventories especially in the United States are brimming and rising U.S. drilling activity is pushing up production there as well. As a result, WTI and Brent crude oil futures are 4 to 5 percent below their early January peaks. Oil prices rose on Thursday, boosted by an unexpected draw in U.S. gasoline inventories, although bloated crude supplies meant that fuel markets remain under pressure. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.41 per barrel at 0515 GMT, up 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $ 52.60 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that gasoline stocks fell by 869,000 barrels last week to 256.2 million barrels, versus analyst expectations for a 1.1 millionbarrel gain. Traders said that this surprise increase in U.S. gasoline inventories had helped push up crude, although most added that fuel markets were still bloated and that this would likely prevent further big price rises. "We remain highly sceptical of the overnight price action," U.S. commercial crude inventories soared by 18.8 million barrels to 508.6 million barrels, according to the EIA. The high fuel inventories as well as rising U.S. crude production mean that oil markets will remain over-supplied for some time. "The 4Q16 global oil market surplus led to further rises in global inventories in January, and as a result the draws that we expect will start from a high base. "U.S. production has also rebounded faster than our rig modelling suggested ... and we view the faster shale rebound as creating downside risk to our 2018 WTI price forecast of $ 55 per barrel, but not to our expectation that the global oil market will shift into deficit in 1H17," . high inventories undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of this year in order to prop up prices and rebalance the market. As a result, both Brent and WTI are down around 5 percent since early January, when the OPEC-led cuts started to be implemented. "Our 2017 Brent outlook is broadly neutral, with a $ 57.0 per barrel average forecast for the year. "Agreed production cuts by OPEC and Russia are supporting prices, but heavy refinery maintenance, and production growth in Libya, Nigeria and the Permian will cap gains," it added. Oil prices stabilised on Thursday, boosted by an unexpected draw in U.S. gasoline inventories, although bloated crude supplies meant that fuel markets remained under pressure. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.27 per barrel at 0137 GMT, up 15 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 14 cents at $ 52.48 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that gasoline stocks fell by 869,000 barrels last week to 256.2 million barrels, versus analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel gain. Traders said that this surprise increase in U.S. gasoline inventories had helped push up crude, though most added that fuel markets were still bloated and that this would likely prevent further big price rises. "We remain highly sceptical of the overnight price action. U.S. commercial crude inventories soared by 18.8 million barrels to 508.6 million barrels, according to the EIA. The high fuel inventories as well as rising U.S. crude production mean that oil markets will remain over-supplied for some time. "The 4Q16 global oil market surplus led to further rises in global inventories in January, and as a result the draws that we expect will
start from a high base. "U.S. production has also rebounded faster than our rig modelling suggested..and we view the faster shale rebound as creating downside risk to our 2018 WTI price forecast of $55 per barrel, but not to our expectation that the global oil market will shift into deficit in 1H17," High inventories undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of this year in order to prop up prices and rebalance the market. As a result, both Brent and WTI are down around 5 percent since early January, when the OPEC-led cuts started to be implemented. Oil prices slid on Wednesday, extending falls from the previous session, as a big increase in U.S. crude inventories and a slump in Chinese demand implied too much global supply despite OPEC-led efforts to cut output. International Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 54.69 per barrel at 1501 GMT, down 36 cents from their previous close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $ 51.71 a barrel, down 46 cents. The declines came on the back of unexpectedly big increases in U.S. fuel inventories, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Crude inventories rose by 14.2 million barrels in the week to February 3 to 503.6 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.5 million barrel increase. "If the official data from the U.S. Department of Energy were to show a similar inventory build ... U.S. crude oil stocks would be catapulted to almost a record level," The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its official data later on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.1-million-barrel gain. The data pointed to "U.S. gasoline demand falling sharply by 460,000 barrels per day year on year in January, with such declines only previously (seen) during recessions." The EIA said on Tuesday it expects U.S. crude production to grow by 100,000 bpd to 8.98 million barrels this year, 0.3 percent less than previously forecast, but expects production to jump by 550,000 bpd in 2018. U.S. supplies undermine a deal led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to curb output and support prices. But OPEC, for the time being at least, is not greatly concerned with rising U.S. output. "The market is gradually accommodating for shale oil as well as shale gas - the demand is healthy. With that continuous demand increase I think all available oils are going to be accommodated," Qatari Energy Minister Mohammed alSada told Reuters on Wednesday. also came under pressure from signs of slowing demand from the world's biggest energy consumer. China's 2016 oil demand grew at its slowest pace in at least three years, Reuters calculations based on official data showed. China's implied oil demand growth eased to 2.5 percent in 2016, down from 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2014, led by a sharp drop in diesel consumption and as gasoline usage eased from double-digit growth. Oil prices dropped on Wednesday to extend falls from the previous day, as a massive increase in U.S. fuel inventories and a slump in Chinese demand implied that global crude markets remain oversupplied despite OPEC-led efforts to cut output. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at 54.53 per barrel at 0111 GMT, down 52 cents, or 0.94 percent, from their previous close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $51.52 a barrel, down 65 cents, or 1.25 percent. The slumps on Wednesday came after over 1-percent falls the previous day. He said that the
sharp declines came on the back of unexpectedly big increases in U.S. crude and refined product inventories, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Crude inventories rose by 14.2 million barrels in the week to Feb. 3 to 503.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.9 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.1-million barrel gain. "Weekly data points to U.S. gasoline demand falling sharply by 460,000 barrels per day year-on-year in January, with such declines only previously during recessions. However, the U.S. bank said that "this data vastly overstates a likely modest year-onyear decline in gasoline demand," and that its "outlook for global strong demand growth remains unchanged". Outside the United States, there were other signs of market weakness. China's 2016 oil demand grew at the slowest pace in at least three years, Reuters calculations based on official data showed. China's implied oil demand growth eased to 2.5 percent in 2016, down from 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2014, led by a sharp drop in diesel consumption and as gasoline usage eased from double-digit growth. slowing occurred as the economy expanded by only 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest pace in 26 years. Slowing demand and ongoing high inventories undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of this year in order to prop up prices and rebalance the market. Despite this, both Brent and WTI are down over 6 percent since early January, when the cuts started to be implemented. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday said crude oil inventories jumped 14.23 million barrels at the end of last week, according to sources. Gasoline inventories rose 2.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks gained by 1.37 million barrels, highlighting continued builds in refined products seen as an overhang on the market. The Cushing oil hub recorded a build of 624,000 barrels, the first increase in five weeks. The figures are followed on Wednesday by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts expect a crude build of 2.38 million barrels at the end of last week. Oil prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by sluggish demand and evidence of a burgeoning revival in U.S. shale production that could complicate efforts by OPEC and other producers to reduce a supply glut. Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 80 cents at $ 54.92 a barrel by 11:31 EST. On Monday, the Brent futures contract closed down $ 1.09 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 was 96 cents lower at $52.05 after closing down 82 cents on Monday. Gasoline futures RBc1 fell 2.66 cents or 1.77 percent to $ 1.4837 a gallon. "It's a supply-driven setback ... We are within 2 million barrels of the record in U.S. gasoline stocks that we saw last February, "A strong build in inventory reports could weigh on gasoline in a seasonal time frame where gasoline demand is weak." Inventory estimates from trade group the American Petroleum Institute are due on Tuesday afternoon. U.S. government data is reported Wednesday. Gasoline futures fell below the 200 day moving average on a continuous chart, Headrick noted, adding that if they close below that level, it could further pressure crude. Prices have been supported for two months as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters have tried to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017. OPEC and Russia have together cut at least 1.1 million
bpd so far. But market players are concerned that rising U.S. production and signs of slowing demand growth could offset these efforts. "The general perception is that OPEC is cutting production, which is supporting prices, but high stock levels, rising rig counts and growing U.S. production are capping gains" Societe Generale oil analyst Michael Wittner said U.S. shale oil output was recovering faster than expected. Rig counts are increasing at an accelerating pace, and given the technological advances of the past three years, this should translate into significant supply. "U.S. shale is coming back, and it's coming back strong." Chinese oil demand grew in 2016 at the slowest pace in at least three years, Reuters calculations showed, the latest sign of slower demand from the world's largest energy consumer. think U.S. gasoline demand is stalling. Gasoline stockpiles rose by almost 21 million barrels in the first 27 days of 2017, more than double the average increase of less than 12 million barrels at the same time of year during the previous decade, official inventory data showed. Oil edged lower Tuesday as the focus turned to U.S. stockpile data.Brent crude was off 27 cents, or 0.48%, at $ 55.45 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude shed 26 cents, or 0.49%, to $ 52.75. The market was underpinned by fresh sanctions imposed on Iran by the U.S. after ballistic missile testing by Tehran. Increased U.S. drilling could derail the impact of agreed cuts by other major producers. OPEC and nonOPEC producers have agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half of this year. American Petroleum Institute U.S. inventory figures are due out later in the session. These will be followed Wednesday by official Energy Information Administration inventories. U.S. crude stocks are forecast to have increased by 2.38 million barrels in the latest reporting week. Oil was stable on Tuesday after falls the previous session, with markets torn between mixed price indicators that have kept crude range-bound for much of the year. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.77 per barrel at 0753 GMT, up 5 cents from the last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 4 cents at $53.05 a barrel. The more stable prices came after WTI and Brent fell 1.5 to 2 percent the previous day. Since the beginning of the year, both crude futures benchmarks have remained within a $ 5 per barrel price range, suggesting a lack of strong directional price indicators. "$55 per barrel is quite obviously the pivot point in this market... and it has been for some time. Traders said key price support was coming from an effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017. While OPEC and Russia have together cut at least 1.1 million bpd so far, rising output elsewhere as well as signs of slowing demand growth threaten to undermine these efforts, traders said. "The number of oil rigs in the U.S. (is) now at the highest level in 14 months, having risen over 20 percent since the OPEC production cut agreement was reached. There are also concerns that U.S. gasoline consumption, a key pillar for crude oil demand, is stalling. Gasoline stockpiles rose by almost 21 million barrels during the first 27 days of 2017, compared with an average increase of less than 12 million barrels at the same time of year during the previous decade, according to official inventory data, implying either stalling demand or ongoing oversupply. China, which is challenging the United States as the world's biggest oil consumer, This week crude oil import demand
would soften during the first half of the year as refinery maintenance results in less demand and as independent refiners were given a lower annual crude import quota. In a sign of a bloated fuel market, China's refined oil product exports are soaring."China's oil product exports continued to surge for its third year in 2016, by 34 percent year-on-year to 48.3 million tonnes. "At the same time, China's oil product imports have been sliding downwards, falling about 7 percent year-on-year in 2016 to 27.9 million tonnes. Oil fell on Monday as ample U.S. supplies and excess speculative length outweighed OPEC output curbs and rising tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent LCOc1 futures fell $ 1.09, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $ 55.72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 lost 82 cents, or 1.5 percent, to close at $ 53.01. That was the lowest close for both contracts since Jan. 31. The Brent premium over WTI WTCLc1-LCOc1 narrowed to $2.09 a barrel at the close, its smallest since Jan. 19. "We feel that the bulk of the price decline related to the larger-than-expected increase in net WTI speculative length as well as another hefty increase in the oil rig count. Ritterbusch and others also said the crude decline was associated with weakness in gasoline futures. U.S. gasoline futures RBc1 fell 2.8 percent on Monday. Hedge funds and other speculators boosted their bullish bets in U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Jan. 31 to the highest level on record, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. are a lot of longs in the market, and if we don't see prices rise those longs will get discouraged and exit the market as fast as they entered over the past few weeks. Oil prices, while supported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' supply cuts since the start of the year and a new spike in tension between Iran and the United States, are struggling for new direction. The Trump administration's new sanctions against Iran, though not affecting oil output, raised concern about the potential for further developments that could hinder export growth in OPEC's third-largest producer. Tension between Tehran and Washington has risen since an Iranian missile test that prompted the United States to impose sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards. U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that U.S. crude inventories have built sharply for four straight weeks, while data on Friday showed that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs rose to the highest level since October 2015. EIA/S likely going to see U.S. rigs keep increasing and as the months go on U.S. production will ramp up and mitigate a lot of the OPEC cuts. Oil edged lower Monday after earlier gains on ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Investors were also weighing up the possible impact of a rise in the number of rigs operating in the U.S. Brent crude was off 18 cents, or 0.32%, at $ 56.63 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude shed 2 cents, or 0.04%, to $ 53.81. The U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian companies in response to ballistic missile testing by Tehran. Baker Hughes figures Friday showed an increase in the U.S. rig count of 17 to 583. That was the highest level since October 2015. Increased North American shale activity could offset the impact of agreed cuts by other major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half of this year. Oil futures finished higher on Friday, logging a weekly gain, as traders cheered signs that global supply was beginning to tighten in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output. News
that the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on some Iranian individuals and entities, days after the White House put Tehran "on notice" over a ballistic missile test, further supported gains. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery tacked on 25 cents, or about 0.5%, to settle at $ 56.81 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Prices climbed to a four-week high of $ 57.45 in the prior session. London-traded Brent futures scored a gain of $ 1.36, or approximately 2.4%, on the week. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March rose 29 cents, or around 0.6%, to end at $53.83 a barrel by close of trade. On Thursday, Nymex futures touched a high of $54.34, a level not seen since January 3. For the week, New York-traded oil futures gained 66 cents, or about 1.2%, the third straight weekly rise. Oil was boosted after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that crude producers had cut their output as agreed under a deal with OPEC, adding to signs of compliance with a global pact to scale back production. Novak said that Russian companies might cut oil production more quickly than required by its deal with late last year. He added that 1.4 million barrels per day was already cut from global oil output last month as part of the deal. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months. The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%. Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the mid-$50s over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers and expectations of a rebound in U.S. shale production. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 17 last week, the 13th gain in 14 weeks. That brought the total count to 583, the most since November 2015. The data raised concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for March rose 2.0 cents, or nearly 1.4% to $ 1.553 a gallon. It ended up about 1.8% for the week. March heating oil added 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to finish at $ 1.665 a gallon. For the week, the fuel gained around 2.9%. Natural gas futures for March delivery slipped 12.4 cents, or almost 4%, to $ 3.063 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 9.7%. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Tuesday, February 7
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Wednesday, February 8 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles. Thursday, February 9 The U.S. EIA is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage. Friday, February 10 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
Oil prices edged up on Monday on fears that new U.S. sanctions against Iran could be extended to start affecting crude supplies, but markets were capped by further signs of growing U.S. production. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since a recent Iranian ballistic missile test which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to impose sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards. crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $56.86 per barrel at 0037 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were up 5 cents at $ 53.88 a barrel. Traders said the strain between Tehran and the United States raised concerns that U.S. sanctions could be tightened further to impact Iranian oil exports, which were only allowed to return to normal last year. "The move by the U.S. to impose new restrictions on Iran for testing a ballistic missile ... does raise the risk of further tensions disrupting supply This was countered somewhat by data showing another strong rise in rig activity in the U.S.," it added. U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a 13th week in the last 14, extending a nine-month recovery as drillers take advantage of crude prices that have held mostly over $50 a barrel since OPEC agreed to cut supplies in late November. Drillers added 17 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 3, bringing the total count up to 583, the most since October 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc BHI.N said on Friday. rising U.S. production, led by shale drillers, dims efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia to end global oversupply by cutting their output by a planned average of almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year. OPEC's efforts to shield its biggest and fastest growing markets in Asia from the cuts are also undermining a rebalancing of the market, traders have said, as OPEC cuts exports to regions in Europe and North America where demand growth is slower or where other suppliers are more dominant. over efforts so far to re-balance the market is reflected in price movements this year. Despite the OPEC-led cuts being enacted from the beginning of 2017, Brent crude futures are 2.6 percent below their peaks in early January.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : BASE METAL GUIDE Trading Ideas: ✍ NICKEL Nickel trading range for the day is 684.3-725.9. Nickel gained as investors piled into risky assets after U.S. President Trump calmed international tensions by affirming the "one-China" policy. Nickel was said to be in a supply deficit last year of 209,000 metric tons and is projected to remain in deficit this year to the tune of 188,000 mt. Nickel ore inventories at seven major Chinese ports tumbled in the week ending February 10 when compared with the level before the 2017 Chinese New Year holiday.
✍ ZINC Zinc trading range for the day is 187-201.4. Zinc gained on prospects for rising demand from China's steel industry after the country reported a near-record volume of iron ore imports in January. Prices were also boosted after China reported better-than-expected trade data for January as demand picked up both at home and abroad. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong added 15,300 to 295,000 tonnes this past week.
✍ COPPER Copper trading range for the day is 384.8-420.4. Copper prices rallied as LME prices jumped above $6000 on talk of BHP Billiton declaring force majeure on shipments from its Escondida mine in Chile. Freeport had said that it would scale back output at Grasberg, but Indonesia's mining ministry said the company could apply immediately to restart exports that were stopped on Jan. 12.
China reported better-than-expected trade data for January as demand picked up both at home and abroad, an encouraging start to 2017
BASE METAL ✍ ZINC The base metal traded higher by 0.74 per cent to Rs 190.45 per kg as traders enlarged positions following uptick in demand in the spot markets coupled with a firm trend at the London Metal Exchange. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in March traded higher by Rs 1.40, or 0.74 per cent, to Rs 190.45 per kg, in a business turnover of 101 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in February edged up by Rs 1.35, or 0.72 per cent, to Rs 190.10 per kg in 2,540 lots. Market analysts attributed the rise in zinc futures to a firm trend at spot market on pick up in demand from consuming industries and a firming trend in the base metals pack overseas.
✍ LEAD Amid a firming trend at the spot market on rising demand from battery makers, lead rose 0.70 per cent to Rs 157.35 per kg in futures trade as speculators built up positions. Furthermore, a firming trend in base metals overseas supported the upside in metal prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in March was up Rs 1.10, or 0.70 per cent, at Rs 157.35 per kg, in a business turnover of one lot. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month traded up by Rs 1.05, or 0.67 per cent, at Rs 156.80 per kg in 332 lots. According to market analysts, rising demand from battery makers at spot markets and strength in base metals at the London Metal Exchange helped lead futures trade higher.
✍ NICKEL Prices moved up by Rs 6.40 to Rs 692.70 per kg in futures market as speculators raised their bets amid a firming trend overseas and spot demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in February gained Rs 6.40, or 0.93 per cent, to Rs 692.70 per kg, in a business turnover of 1,326 lots. The metal for delivery in March also rose by a similar margin to trade at Rs 698.10 per kg in 38 lots. Analysts said apart from increased domestic demand from alloy-makers, firmness in copper and other base metals at the London Metal Exchange, influenced nickel prices at futures trade.
✍ COPPER Copper futures traded 0.28 per cent higher at Rs 391.70 per kg on the back of a firm overseas trend and increased domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in February traded
higher by Rs 1.10, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 391.70 per kg, in a business turnover of 667 lots. The metal for delivery in far-month April edged up by 90 paise, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 395.75 per kg in 12 lots. Globally, copper for delivery in three months advanced 1.7 per cent to settle at USD 5,895 per tonne at the London Metal Exchange in yesterday's trade. Market analysts said besides increased demand from consuming industries, a firm trend in base metals at the LME as strengthening prospects of disruptions at the world's two largest mines threatened to send the market into a global shortage, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.
✍ ALUMINIUM To safeguard the interests of domestic aluminium industry, the government may soon take some steps including imposing of anti-dumping duties or minimum import price in wake of rising imports of downstream aluminium products in the country. "Aluminium industry has faced a lot of stress in the last one year. I believe aluminium has huge potential in India. Our neighbouring countries are giving 13 per cent subsidy to downstream aluminium products and helping them to dump those in India," Power, Coal and Mines Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday. "I have had a conversation with the aluminium industry. I found the imports of downstream products in India has gone up, which impacts both the primary manufacturers and the entire industry. ✍ ZINC Zinc prices drifted lower by 0.37 per cent to Rs 176.35 per kg in futures trade as traders engaged in trimming their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in January declined by 65 paise, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 176.35 per kg in a business turnover of 477 lots. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in February shed 40 paise, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 176.85 per kg in 2 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market, kept zinc prices down at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTALS – ✍ SUGAR Sugar prices climbed up by Rs. 60 per quintal to trade at nearly six-year high at the wholesale market in the national capital today following tight stocks positions amid speculative buying by stockists and bulk consumers. Marketmen said apart from tight stocks position in the market following pause in supplies by mills, robust demand from bulk consumers and stockists, lifted the sweetener prices to almost six-year
high. Moreover, lower output estimates by Indian Sugar Merchant Association (ISMA), too fulled surge in sugar prices, they added.
✍ CHANA Rabi crop planting is 6% higher than last year, official data show, signalling a bumper harvest, moderate prices and lesser dependence on imports if the weather remains favourable. Farmers have planted wheat in 318 lakh hectares, 7% higher than last year, which can raise output close to a record, officials said. Cargill India chairman Siraj Chaudhry said higher planting shows the situation is returning to normal after a good monsoon. “Dependence on imports of pulses and wheat was triggered due to failure of planting and crop loss due to drought. That should not happen this year,“ he said.
✍ SOYABEAN Steady conditions persisted in major edible oils in Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra as oil prices hovered around previous day's level on small bouts of trading. Absence of buying interest and easy condition on Madhya Pradesh oil market mainly kept prices unchanged. A majority of traders adopted wait and watch move because of weak international edible oil prices, sources said Monday. Barring a sharp fall in rapeseed oil, major edible oil prices today generally ruled flat in the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra in the absence of any worthwhile trading activity. Slackness in demand from millers and retailers against adequate stocks mainly pulled rapeseed oil prices down. Release of stock from stockists also pushed down this oil. Trading activity in major edible oils reported weak as no trader was in mood for any commitment because of good rise in international oil prices, sources said Wednesday.
✍ WHEAT Indian wheat futures fell for a second day this week on Tuesday, as data released on Friday showed higher planting compared with last year. Winter wheat planting in India this year was up about 7 percent at 31.78 million hectares as of Friday, government data showed. February wheat futures NWTG7 settled 0.6 percent lower on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd at 1,771 rupees on Tuesday. The March sugar futures NSMH7 , which rose to its highest level in 2017 on Monday, fell 0.8 percent in light trading to 3,899 rupees as of 1220 GMT.
✍ COTTON
Indian cotton exporters have cancelled orders for around 25,000 bales and postponed shipments of about 200,000 bales by up to a month after a supply shortage pushed up local prices, industry officials told Reuters. The move by the world's biggest cotton producer is likely to help rival suppliers like Brazil, the United States and some African countries boost exports, with some India textile mills even starting to import cheaper fibre from overseas. "Exporters had signed contracts at around 75 cents (per lb) in December and January. Now (local) prices have shot up to 84 cents. They could not fulfill the orders," said an exporter based in Mumbai, adding that contracts to export nearly 25,000 bales to Pakistan and Bangladesh have been cancelled. Raw cotton supplies usually peak in India between December and February, pushing down prices. This year, local prices MCOTc2 have jumped more than 10 percent over the past two months, with farmers now delaying cotton sales in expectation of further price rises. "Limited supplies in spot markets forced some exporters to delay shipments. They are delaying shipments by 15 days to one month," said Chirag Patel, chief executive of Indian exporter Jaydeep Cotton Fibers.
� WHEAT U.S. wheat supplies were seen shrinking below market estimates as the export outlook brightened despite ample global stocks and a firm dollar that had been seen as a brake on overseas demand, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday. Domestic corn stocks also were seen falling below the government's previous outlook as ethanol makers ramped up production, USDA said in its monthly supply and demand report. U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2016/17 marketing year were pegged at 1.139 billion bushels, down from the January estimate of 1.186 billion bushels and below market forecasts that ranged from 1.145 billion to 1.211 billion bushels. Domestic corn ending stocks were lowered to 2.320 billion bushels from 2.355 billion. The USDA left its outlook for 2016/17 domestic soybean ending stocks unchanged at 420 million bushels. It also held its forecast for U.S. soy exports steady at 2.050 billion bushels despite a fast pace of shipments through January. "Competition from expected record South American exports will limit U.S. shipments to well below last year's record level this summer," USDA said in the report.
� MENTHA OIL Mentha oil prices fell by 0.42 per cent to Rs 1,028 per kg in futures trade as speculators trimmed their positions, driven by a sluggish demand from consuming industries at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month declined by Rs 4.40, or 0.42 per cent, to Rs 1,028 per kg, in a business turnover of 209 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in March traded lower by Rs 4.20, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 1,038.60 per kg in 48 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants on the back of subdued demand from consuming industries in spot market against ample
stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the decline in mentha oil prices at futures trade.
✍ CRUDE PALM OIL Crude palm oil prices were up by 0.22 per cent to Rs 583.40 per 10 kg in futures trade as speculators indulged in enlarging positions, driven by a firm demand at the spot market. Besides, a firming trend in overseas markets supported the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in February rose by Rs 1.30, or 0.22 per cent, to Rs 583.40 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 208 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in March went up by Rs 1.10, or 0.19 per cent, to Rs 573.20 per 10 kg in 24 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants driven by pick up in demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices higher at futures trade.
✍ CARDAMOM Cardamom futures fell by one per cent to Rs 1,479.50 per kg as traders trimmed their holdings amid sluggish spot demand. Besides, adequate stocks position following increased arrivals from producing regions also fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in March eased by Rs 14.90, or one per cent, to Rs 1,479.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 56 lots. The spice for delivery in April was down by Rs 10.80, or 0.72 per cent, to Rs 1,495 per kg, with a trading volume of just two lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to a weak trend at spot market on subdued demand mainly put pressure on cardamom prices at futures trade.
✍ SOYABEAN The slide in rapeseed oil in non-edible section, continued unabated in Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra for second day today on persistent selling by stockists amid good supply from producing regions and weak trends in producing regions. Sentiment turned bearish because of release of stock from stockists. Trading activity in other edible reported weak because of healthy rise in overseas oil prices, according to sources.
✍ WHEAT Bangladesh's state grains buyer expects to import a total of around 250,000 tonnes wheat in the 2016/17 financial year ending June, about half the quantity it expected to import earlier. It has already agreed to ship in 200,000 tonnes in its first government-to-government deal with Russia, with the first cargo of
55,000 tonnes arriving next week, the agency's head said on Friday. Bangladesh, South Asia's top wheat buyer, has turned to the Black Sea region for wheat as supply from India dwindled. grains agency is also looking to take delivery of another 50,000 tonnes that was bought in an earlier tender. "After this ... we don't need to procure more wheat from international markets," Badrul Hasan, the head of the state grains agency told Reuters, adding that this was due to stable local prices. No tender for wheat purchases will be floated over the next few months, he said. Typically, the government imports more wheat to replenish stockpiles, as it increases market supply whenever prices go up. Such procurement is crucial for the South Asian nation to feed its poor and keep domestic prices stable. Bangladesh's rice and wheat reserves have fallen to nearly 900,000 tonnes as of end-January, from 1.5 million tonnes during the same period a year ago, due to less imports. The government is also handing out cash instead of wheat or rice to the poor as part of some welfare schemes, Hasan said, implying lower imports of the grains.
� COTTON Indian cotton exporters have cancelled orders for around 25,000 bales and postponed shipments of about 200,000 bales by up to a month after a supply shortage pushed up local prices, industry officials told Reuters. The move by the world's biggest cotton producer is likely to help rival suppliers like Brazil, the United States and some African countries boost exports, with some India textile mills even starting to import cheaper fibre from overseas. "Exporters had signed contracts at around 75 cents in December and January. Now prices have shot up to 84 cents. They could not fulfil the orders," said an exporter based in Mumbai, adding that contracts to export nearly 25,000 bales to Pakistan and Bangladesh have been cancelled. Raw cotton supplies usually peak in India between December and February, pushing down prices. This year, local prices MCOTc2 have jumped more than 10 percent over the past two months, with farmers now delaying cotton sales in expectation of further price rises. "Limited supplies in spot markets forced some exporters to delay shipments. They are delaying shipments by 15 days to one month.
� SUGAR Sugar prices climbed up by Rs 60 per quintal to trade at nearly six-year high at the wholesale market in the national capital today following tight stocks positions amid speculative buying by stockists and bulk consumers. Marketmen said apart from tight stocks position in the market following pause in supplies by mills, robust demand from bulk consumers and stockists, lifted the sweetener prices to almost six-year high. Moreover, lower output estimates by Indian Sugar Merchant Association, too fulled surge in sugar prices, they added.
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