✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-NOV-2016
118
116
114
112
112
110
110
108
106
COPPER
30-NOV-2016
329
324
319
316
314
311
309
304
299
CRUDE OIL
18-NOV-2016
3622
3535
3448
3393
3361
3306
3274
3187
3100
GOLD
05-DEC-2016
30409
30144
29879
29767
29614
29502
29349
29084
28819
LEAD
30-NOV-2016
141
138
135
134
132
131
129
126
123
NATURAL GAS
25-NOV-2015
241
234
227
222
220
215
213
206
199
NICKEL
30-NOV-2016
714
708
702
700
696
694
690
684
678
SILVER
05-DEC-2016
43652
43052
42452
42136
41852
41536
41252
40652
40052
ZINC
30-NOV-2016
156
154
152
151
150
149
148
146
144
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
ALUMINIUM
30-NOV-2016
120
117
114
113
111
110
108
105
102
COPPER
30-NOV-2016
359
345
331
322
317
308
303
289
275
CRUDE OIL
15-NOV-2016
3836
3675
3514
3426
3353
3265
3192
3031
2870
GOLD
05-DEC-2016
30942
30517
30092
29874
29667
29449
29242
28817
28392
LEAD
30-NOV-2016
159
151
143
138
135
130
127
119
111
NATURALGAS
25-NOV-2015
263
248
233
225
218
210
203
188
173
NICKEL
30-NOV-2016
774
748
722
709
696
683
670
644
618
SILVER
05-DEC-2016
45025
44013
43001
42411
41989
41399
40977
39965
38953
ZINC
30-NOV-2016
178
169
160
155
151
146
142
133
124
Monday, 14 ]November 2016
WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY ZINC NOV ABOVE 170 TGT 173 SL 167 BUY NATURAL GAS NOV ABOVE 183 TGT 192 SL 175 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY CRUDEOIL NOV ABOVE 3000 TGT 4000 SL 2994 - SL ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
USDINR
26-OCT2016
67.80
67.70
67.60
67.50
67.40
67.30
67.20
67.10
67
EURINR
26-OCT2016
73.80
73.70
73.60
73.50
73.40
73.30
73.20
73.10
73
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
85.60
85.50
85.40
85.30
85.20
85.10
85
84.90
84.80
JPYINR
26-OCT2016
63.70
63.60
63.50
63.40
63.30
63.20
63.10
63
62.90
R3
R2
R1
PP
DATE
S4
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
S1
S2
S3
USDINR
26-OCT2016
68.10
67.90 67.70
EURINR
26-OCT2016
74.10
GBPINR
26-OCT2016
JPYINR
26-OCT2016
67.50 67.30
67.10
66.90
66.70
66.50
73.90 73.70
73.50 73.30
73.10
72.90
72.70
72.50
85.90
85.70 85.50
85.30 85.10
84.90
84.70
84.50
84.30
64.10
63.90 63.70
63.50 63.30
63.10
62.90
62.70
62.50
WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 85 TGT 86 SL 84 BUY EURINR NOV ABOVE 63.60 TGT 64.40 SL 62.90 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 83.60 TGT 84.60 SL 82.80 - SL
S4
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
SYOREFIDR
20-DEC-2016
709
693
677
671
661
655
645
629
613
SYBEANIDR
20-DEC-2016
3197
3168
3139
3126
3110
3097
3081
3052
3023
RMSEED
20-DEC-2016
4694
4640
4586
4561
4532
4507
4478
4424
4370
JEERAUNJHA
20-DEC-2016
17618 17298 16978
16787
16658
16467
16338
16018
15698
GUARSEED10
20-DEC-2016
3806
3708
3610
3548
3512
3450
3414
3316
3218
TMC
20-DEC-2016
8043
7789
7535
7389
7281
7135
7027
6773
6519
R3
R2
S2
S3
S4
DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
SYOREFIDR
20-DEC-2016
714
696
678
672
660
654
642
624
606
SYBEANIDR
20-DEC-2016
3538
3403
3268
3190
3133
3055
2998
2863
2728
RMSEED
20-DEC-2016
4951
4811
4671
4603
4531
4463
4391
4251
4111
JEERAUNJHA
20-DEC-2016
18285 17765 17245 16920 16725 16400
16205
15685
15165
GUARSEED10
20-DEC-2016
3989
3836
3683
3585
3530
3432
3377
3224
3071
TMC
20-DEC-2016
8843
8289
7735
7489
7181
6935
6627
6073
5519
DATE
R1
PP
S1
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY GUARSEED DEC ABOVE 3200 TGT 3300 SL 3100 BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 16900 TGT 17400 SL 16494 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GUARSEED DEC ABOVE 3370 TGT 3470 SL 3280 - NOT EXECUTED
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar steadied though analysts said the likelihood of higher U.S. rates later this year was likely to keep prices under pressure, while oversupply pushed platinum to its lowest since April. Spot platinum XPT= fell to $937.25 earlier, its lowest since touching $936.81 on April 6, before rising 0.1 percent to $ 946.20 an ounce at 1355 GMT. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.1 percent at $1,257.3 an ounce. Last week it fell to $1,241.20, its lowest since early June as speculators cut bets on higher prices.U.S. gold futures GCcv1 was up 0.2 percent $1,258.4. Traders were looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting due at 1800 GMT. Higher U.S. rates could boost the U.S. currency which when it rises makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. "We need the minutes to see what the thinking is on timing, but it is clear the Fed will raise rates this year," Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig said. "Today the dollar index appears to be steadying, that is a support, but the dollar is generally stronger and that will weigh on precious metals." Analysts said investors who typically buy gold as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty were shunning it and that was reflected in holdings in physically backed exchange traded funds, which have plateaued overall this week at above 57 million ounces. HLDTOTALL=XAU drying up of safe-haven demand, the risk of profit-taking and the outlook for a stronger U.S. dollar suggest further pressure on prices. The U.S. elections are the wild card to watch," Julius Baer analysts said in a note. "Our current view reflects our base-case scenario of a Clinton presidency. The uncertainty coming with a Trump win is a bullish element that however should be more than offset by the positive U.S. dollar impacts his election would most likely come with." Platinum and palladium have come under renewed pressure since the National Union of Mineworkers signed a two-year wage agreement with Impala Platinum, effective July 1 to June 2018. "Both markets will register annual deficits for this year and next, but the high level of above ground stocks means that there is no imminent physical tightness," Deutsche Bank said in a note. are shunning platinum because they are not convinced stocks have shrunk enough to justify a return to the market. Holdings of platinum-backed exchange traded funds fell this month to above 1.9 million tonnes, their lowest since mid 2013.
Gold prices edged lower on Friday as stocks firmed and the US dollar rose on expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by the end of the year. Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at $1,256.50 an ounce by 0257 GMT. The metal was on track to end the week mostly flat. US gold futures were steady at $1,257.90 an ounce. "People are happy to buy at these levels. But, there are a lot of expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, which will be bearish for gold," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer, Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. There will also be some uncertainty
going into the elections, said Leung adding that if Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton wins over Republican Donald Trump then the dollar could strengthen and pull gold down. "Gold looks a bit weaker on charts. We need to see if prices can hold at $1,240 levels ... then we would be heading towards $1,260 and later to $1,275," he said. Spot gold may consolidate further in a narrow range of $1,250-$1,266 per ounce for one day before falling to the October 7 low of $1,241.20, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Markets will next look to Friday's US retail sales data and remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who will address a Boston Fed economics conference at which Boston Fed governor Eric Rosengren will also speak. "We think its rate hiking trajectory will remain very much intact," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note. "As a result, the dollar will likely push higher going into year-end, offering gold its most formidable headwind and even countering the impact of weaker equities." The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.1 per cent to 97.612. Asian stocks edged higher and the dollar bounced on Friday as global markets took a breather after being churned by downbeat Chinese economic data the previous day. Global equity markets had slumped to a three-month low on Thursday. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, rose 0.28 per cent to 961.57 tonnes on Thursday. Among other precious metals, silver edged 0.3 per cent lower at $17.39 an ounce. The metal was on track for its third consecutive weekly loss. Platinum was down for the fifth straight session as it fell 0.3 per cent at $933.75 an ounce. The white metal is down over 3 per cent this week. Palladium shed 0.3 per cent to $636. 10 after having touched a new three-month low of $633.22 an ounce. The metal is down over 4 per cent this week
� ENERGY Oil prices on Tuesday retreated from one-year highs, after OPEC said it was trying to reach a global agreement to cap production for at least six months amid doubts about how much that would reduce a crude glut. The International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog of the West, said it was unclear how rapidly global oil supply could fall in line with demand even if the OPEC Countries and major producer Russia agreed on a steep output cut. "Net, we find that an agreement to cut production, while increasingly likely, remains premature given the high supply uncertainty in 2017," Goldman Sachs said in a note. a deal would be "self-defeating if it were to target sustainably higher oil prices," Goldman said. Oil has rallied than 13 percent in less than two weeks since OPEC proposed its first production curbs in eight years. Still, prices remain about half of mid-2014 highs above $100 a barrel. On Tuesday, Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 73 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $52.41 a barrel, retreating from a one-year high of $53.73 hit on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 56 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $50.79. Global oil industry officials in Istanbul for the World Energy Conference issued a raft of statements on OPEC's production plan.
Oil prices fell on Thursday after OPEC said its production had risen to the highest level in at least eight years and following reports of an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.37 per barrel at 0256 GMT, down 44 cents, or 0.85 percent, from their previous close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 54 cents, or 1.08 percent, at $49.64 per barrel.Traders said oil markets had come under pressure after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported a rise in output, despite the producer cartel having plans, potentially with non-OPEC producer Russia, to cut output in a bid to rein in a global supply overhang. "Crude responded predictably, with both Brent and WTI falling," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore. OPEC on Wednesday reported its oil production climbed in September to the highest in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a larger surplus next year despite the group's deal to cut output. The producer cartel pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, up 220,000 bpd from August. the absence of any OPEC-Russia headlines to give crude its daily adrenaline shot, the market looks nervously to the EIA Crude Inventory figures due in the U.S. this evening," Halley added. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to publish official storage inventory data later on Thursday. The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to 470.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7. This would be the first rise in oil stocks following five straight weeks of declines. softer gasoline consumption, flagging demand from China and the return of refineries from maintenance will likely drive up global stock levels over Q4," BMI Research said in a note,
� BASE METAL Zinc futures fell by 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg today as speculators indulged in reducing positions amid a weak trend in base metals overseas and low spot demand. Zinc for delivery in current month shed 45 paise or 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 734 lots. The metal for delivery in November too fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 151.10 per kg in 23 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in zinc futures to cutting down of bets by participants, tracking weakness in base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange amid concerns over China's economy. Nickel futures traded 1.34 per cent down at Rs 697.10 per kg on Thursday as speculators reduced their exposure, tracking a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange amid muted demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month shed Rs 9.50 or 1.34 per cent to Rs 697.10 per kg in a business turnover of 2,451 lots.The metal for delivery in November too fell by Rs 8.90 or 1.25 per cent to trade at Rs 703 per kg in 114 lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly in tune with a weak trend in the base
metals pack at the LME as an unexpected drop in Chinese exports spurred concern about the outlook for the global economy.China's exports plummeted 10.0 percent year-on-year to $184.5 billion in September, government data showed on Thursday.Besides, muted demand from alloymakers at the domestic spot markets weighed on metal prices in futures trade here.Globally, nickel prices retreated by 1.6 per cent at the LME, reversing earlier gains. Lead prices were down 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in futures trading today as participants reduced their exposure, triggered by subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market and weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in November month declined by 40 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in business turnover of 24 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.19 per cent to Rs 134.85 per kg in 483 lots. Marketmen said the weakness in lead futures was due to a sluggish demand from battery-makers at the domestic markets, apart from weak global cues after China's exports unexpectedly declined, raising global demand outlook. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW The recent rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan and lower stocks in international market have boosted the prospects of jeera, the second largest exported spice from India. The near month jeera futures prices in Ncdex hovered around Rs 163 per kg on Saturday. But the November and December futures prices are showing a higher price trend. The export demand going through a sluggish phase following reduced buying by China and Hanjin shipping company fiasco is expected to pick up in the months. ``Indian cumin is priced $200 lower than the stock in Syria and Turkey at $2500 per tonne but there are no takers with China going slow on purchase. The bankruptcy of Hanjin shipping company also led to delay in shipments affecting exports,’’ said Dipak Parikh, partner of Kanu Krishna Corporation. The political turmoil in Syria and the depletion of stocks in that country and Turkey, which are the two major producers of cumin after India, could lead to a shift in demand to India in the coming months, according to Religare Broking. The falling rupee is also expected to benefit the Indian exports in the medium term. The cumin exports at 41,000 tonnes valued at Rs 637.50 crore for three months to June 2016 had shown 55% increase in quantity and 50% rise in value from a year ago. increase in quantity and 50% rise in value from a year ago. ``The good rains in Gujarat region are good for cumin, the sowing of which will commence this month. Since the situation is not ideal for coriander, another spice cultivated in these regions, farmers may shift to cumin,’’ said KrishnakumarMenon, head of procurement of Eastern Condiments Pvt. Ltd., a major curry masala company. ✍ Sugar Sugar price rally dents expectations for Chinese imports The rally in sugar prices, coupled with
improved domestic production prospects, has dented expectations for purchases of the sweetener by China, the top importer. The US Department of Agriculture's Beijing bureau cut to 6.0m tonnes its forecast for Chinese sugar imports in 2016- 17 – ditching expectations of a rise in volumes. Indeed, the downgraded figure was 1.9m tonnes below the USDA's official estimate. The reduced import estimate "is a result of both higher domestic sugar cane production, a narrowing of domestic and global sugar price spreads which makes smuggling less attractive, as well as a strengthening of Chinese enforcement against illegal sugar trade," the bureau said in a report. Sugar Rally, Normal Monsoon Rain Seen Trimming India Imports India may import less sugar than predicted three months ago after global prices surged to a four-year high and the first normal monsoon in three years boosted the outlook for domestic crop. Overseas purchases may total 1.25 million metric tons in the year starting Oct. 1, the most since 2009-10, according to the median estimate of six traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with 2.1 mt predicted in a June survey. Production is seen tumbling 10 % to 22.5 mt, the median estimate of another survey of 10 traders and analysts showed. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates supplies next year will be enough to meet domestic demand forecast at about 25.6 million tons with inventory of 7.5 mt. The group says production will drop 6.8 percent to 23.4 million tons in 2016-17. Stockpiles are sufficient to meet demand and the domestic prices are stable over the past six months, the FoodMinistry said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday. ✍ Soybean Soybean futures closed lower on week due to reports of new season soybean crop from MP, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. The most-active Oct’16 delivery contract closed 0.31% down to settle at Rs. 3,225 per quintal. As per Soybean Processors Association of India recent survey across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan India's soybean production in 2016-17 Jul-Jun to 10.9 mt, up 58% from the last year. Soybean production is estimated higher in all the three states, which account for over 80% of the country's output. U.S. soybean fell as U.S. farmers are expected to boost the pace of harvesting on forecasts of dry weather in the Midwest. Moreover, Brazil's CONAB forecast that 2016/17 soybean production in the country, a key exporter, will rise to between 101.9 million and 104 mt from 95.4 mt in the previous marketing year. The USDA reported weekly soybean export sales rose to 2.180 mt from 1.693 mt a week ago, well above forecasts for 1.2 mt to 1.5 mt. ✍ Mustard Seed Mustard seed futures closed lower last week due to lower demand and expected to higher production in the next season. There is expectation of pickup in physical demand from the industrial buyers. The Oct’16 contract ended 1.40% lower last week to settle at Rs. 4,507/quintal. The country's production of rapeseed, is expected to rise 6.3 mt, up 12.5 % from a year earlier. The demand for mustard may pickup in physical market due to approaching winter.There are reports of
timely rains in EU rapeseed crops, which will enhance production after dry weather during sowing season.According to latest USDA report, rapeseed crop is lowered for the European Union and Russia, offsetting a modest increase in Canada. Widespread showers over in Europe boosted rapeseed crop development after, but drought prompted farmers to sow less. The world production is forecasted at 66.86 mt for 2016/17 season
✍ Refined Soy Oil Refined soy oil closed lower last week due to expectation of sufficient stocks in the physical market as import duty cut by the government. The most active Ref Soy oil Oct’16 expiry contract closed 0.41% lower last week. Recently, government increases the tariff value of crude soya oil to $827/tonnes or 1.22% compared to previous fortnight. Government fixes the tariff value every fortnight. As per SEA data, India's edible oil imports fell 8.4% to 1.25 mt in August, while cumulative imports in the first 10 months of the current oil rose 4.0% to 12.04 mt. India Aug crude soyoil import 333,599 tonnes, lower by 18 % compared to 406,116 tonnes year ago. Earlier, India has cut import taxes on both crude palm oil and refined edible oils by 5% points to 7.5 and 15 % respectively.
✍ Jeera Jeera futures closed lower during the last week due to lower domestic and export demand. NCDEX Oct’16 Jeera closed 3.55% down to close at Rs 16,715 per quintal. The physical stocks are dwindling with the stockists but anticipation of good crop in the next season pressurizes the prices in the futures market. According to the trade sources, jeera exports may have raise by 29% to 58,000 tonnes in Apr-Aug compared to last year figure of 45,000 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in thefirst four months Apr-Jun of 2016-17 is at 51,904 tonnes, higher by 61.5% compared to last year same time. The exports of jeera during July 2016 decreases 20% m/m to 7,881 tonnes but increase y/y by 27.3%. As per 4thadvance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.38 lt compared to 1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt. ✍ Turmeric Turmeric futures closed lower last week on forecast of dry weather across turmeric growing states during the second half of October, which may be favorable for crop maturing and higher yield. Turmeric Oct’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 3.84% down to settle at Rs 6,910 per quintal. Lowering export demand in recent months is pressurizing prices The prices of turmeric are moving sideways to down due to mixed fundamentals of good sowing acreage coupled with declining supplies and forecast of higher rains in the state of Telangana. The demand from the industrial
buyers will support the prices just before new season harvesting. On the export front, country exported about 42.923 tonnes of turmeric during April-July period up by 34,5% compared last year, as per department of commerce data. Turmeric acreage in Telangana as on 28 Sep was up 12% at 46,000 hectares as compared to 41,000 hectares last year. Sowing of turmeric is over in 95% of normal area and up by 107 % of normal sowing area.
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