Commodity research report 16 april 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Market Wrap-Up MCX Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

% Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

Aluminium

30-Apr-18

133.00

133.55

155.75

133.55

149.75

12.59%

53.51%

155.23%

Copper

30-Apr-18

438.25

438.40

453.80

437.70

442.75

1.03%

-15.94%

-24.45%

Crude Oil

19-Apr-18

4029

4041

4419

4034

4401

9.23%

36.32%

-8.34%

Gold

05-Jun-18

30694

30659

31562

30642

31118

1.38%

11.85%

-0.69%

Lead

30-Apr-18

155.55

155.10

157.30

149.80

150.25

-3.41%

44.22%

11.43%

Natural Gas

25-Apr-18

175.90

174.80

180.40

171.60

179.10

1.82%

-5.33%

7.66%

Nickel

30-Apr-18

860.90

855.20

916.00

852.50

904.90

5.11%

35.45%

-12.05%

Silver

04-May-18

38235

38359

39459

38191

38927

1.81%

-26.51%

-34.66%

Zinc

30-Apr-18

211.30

210.05

212.55

201.65

202.70

-4.07%

6.94%

-10.58%

Commodity

NCDEX Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

% Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

Castor Seed

18-May-18

4151

4140

4193

4075

4147

-0.10%

-4.09%

-44.41%

Chana

18-May-18

3826

3848

3665

3675

-3.95%

2.49%

-35.79%

Dhaniya

18-May-18

5283

5290

5350

5161

5184

-1.87%

-1.92%

-58.30%

Cottonseed Oil Cake

18-May-18

1396.50

0.86%

-1.69%

-64.90%

Guargum5

18-May-18

8889

0.54%

-3.66%

-28.97%

Guarseed10

18-May-18

4128.50

-0.41%

0.37%

-14.38%

Jeera

18-May-18

15405

15300

15720

15260

15655

1.62%

34.51%

-35.55%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

925.50

922.00

928.50

902.00

916.00

-1.03%

-21.54%

-61.88%

RMseed

18-May-18

3994

4010

4012

3905

3927

-1.68%

7.57%

-51.20%

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

786.25

790.00

771.05

774.50

-1.49%

-6.99%

-33.33%

Soyabean

18-May-18

3876

3890

3938

3833

3852

-0.62%

-7.88%

-78.86%

Turmeric

18-May-18

6524

6482

6800

6394

6750

3.46%

-4.52%

113.38%

Mentha Oil

30-Apr-18

1419.60

-0.83%

6.42%

-68.85%

Commodity

1410.00 1430.00 1400.00 1408.50 8901

9085

8714

8937

4133.00 4190.00 4033.50 4111.50

1416.00 1456.70 1366.00 1407.80

Currency Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in%)

USDINR

26-Apr-18

65.0900

64.9875

65.5300

64.9475

65.2900

0.31%

GBPINR

26-Apr-18

91.2650

91.5425

93.3400

91.5425

93.1525

2.07%

JPYINR

26-Apr-18

60.7150

60.6425

61.3400

60.6400

60.6600

-0.09%

EURINR

26-Apr-18

79.7625

79.8000

81.0750

79.8000

80.4625

0.88%

Currency Pair

Continued…….

17/04/2018

Market Wrap-Up International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

LME

2061.25

2075.50

2339.75

2073.00

2281.00

10.66%

Copper

COMEX

3.038

3.061

3.135

3.045

3.067

0.95%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

61.92

62.00

67.76

61.93

67.39

8.83%

Gold

COMEX

1337.00

1338.00

1369.40

1330.10

1347.90

0.82%

Lead

LME

2385.00

2383.50

2407.75

2290.75

2302.75

-3.45%

NYMEX

2.699

2.730

2.759

2.650

2.701

0.07%

Nickel

LME

13262.50

13307.50

14077.50

13097.50

13902.50

4.83%

Silver

COMEX

16.36

16.345

16.615

16.345

16.628

1.64%

Zinc

LME

3252.50

3254.25

3274.25

3082.75

3110.00

-4.38%

Commodity Aluminium

Natural Gas

17/04/2018

Inventory Updates LME Inventory Commodity

Closing In Tonnes (As on 13th April 2018)

Closing In Tonnes (As on 6th April 2018)

% Change in Price

Copper

362700

372850

-2.72%

Nickel

314946

318432

-1.09%

Lead

129325

129150

0.14%

Zinc

106475

207325

-48.64%

Aluminium

1345225

1265350

6.31%

Continued…….

17/04/2018

Inventory Updates

17/04/2018

Market Next Week Economic Events Calendar Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

0.20%

Monday, April 16, 2018 18:00

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

18:00

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)

18.8

22.5

18:00

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

0.4%

-0.1%

19:30

USD

Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb)

0.6%

21:30

USD

FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

21:30

USD

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

22:45

USD

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks Tuesday, April 17, 2018

1:30

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb)

43.3B

62.1B

7:30

CNY

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar)

7.7%

7.9%

14:00

GBP

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)

55.0K

168.0K

14:00

GBP

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

4.3%

18:00

USD

Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)

0.7%

-4.1%

18:00

USD

Building Permits (Mar)

1.323M

1.321M

18:00

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)

1.9%

-7.0%

18:00

USD

Housing Starts (Mar)

1.262M

1.236M

18:45

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)

0.4%

0.9%

Wednesday, April 18, 2018 14:00

GBP

CPI (YoY) (Mar)

2.7%

14:00

GBP

CPI (MoM) (Mar)

0.3%

0.4%

14:00

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Mar)

0.003

-0.011

18:00

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

20:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-0.189M

3.306M

20:00

USD

Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

23:30

USD

Beige Book

1.129M

Thursday, April 19, 2018 0:45

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

1:45

USD

FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

14:00

GBP

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)

14:00

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

1.4%

1.1%

-0.40%

0.60%

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

26-Apr-18

66.4000

65.8500

65.5500

65.2500

64.9500

64.6500

64.1000

GBPINR

26-Apr-18

96.3000

94.5000

93.8500

92.7000

92.0500

90.9000

89.1000

JPYINR

26-Apr-18

62.3000

61.6000

61.1500

60.9000

60.4500

60.2000

59.5000

EURINR

26-Apr-18

83.0000

81.7500

81.1000

80.4500

79.8500

79.2000

77.9000 Continued…….

17/04/2018

Market Next Week MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

30-Apr-18

191.00

169.00

159.00

146.00

137.00

124.00

102.00

Copper

30-Apr-18

477

461

452

445

436

429.00

413.00

Crude Oil

19-Apr-18

5055

4670

4535

4285

4150

3900

3515

Gold

5-Jun-18

32947

32027

31573

31107

30653

30187

29267

Lead

30-Apr-18

167.00

160.00

155.00

152.00

148.00

145.00

137.00

Natural Gas

25-Apr-18

195.00

186.00

183.00

177.00

174.00

168.00

159.00

Nickel

30-Apr-18

1018

955

930

891

866

828

764

Silver

4-May-18

41395

40127

39527

38859

38259

37591

36323

Zinc

30-Apr-18

227.00

217.00

210.00

206.00

199.00

195.00

184.00

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

18-May-18

4374

4256

4202

4138

4084

4020

3902

Chana

18-May-18

4095

3912

3794

3729

3611

3546

3363

Dhaniya

18-May-18

5610

5421

5302

5232

5113

5043

4854

Cottonseed Oil Cake

18-May-18

1473

1443

1426

1413

1396

1383

1353

Guargum5

18-May-18

9654

9283

9110

8912

8739

8541

8170

Guarseed10

18-May-18

4425

4268

4190

4112

4033

3955

3799

Jeera

18-May-18

16465

16005

15830

15545

15370

15085

14625

Kapas

30-Apr-18

969

942

929

916

903

889

863

RMseed

18-May-18

4162

4055

3991

3948

3884

3841

3734

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

816

797

786

779

767

760

741

Soyabean

18-May-18

4084

3979

3916

3874

3811

3769

3664

Turmeric

18-May-18

7460

7054

6902

6648

6496

6242

5836

Mentha Oil

30-Apr-18

1592

1501

1454

1410

1364

1319

1229

17/04/2018

MCX Fundamentals BULLION

Gold future rose in American trade as the dollar index traded flat following earlier data from china the world’s largest metal consumer and the us. Gold prices couldn’t sustain upside momentum that it got initially but managed to settle the week with nearly 1 percent gains. As per technical indicators MACD has turned flat that shows weakness in the prevailing trend. On the downside major support comes in at 30400 break below the same can encourage serious sell off in metal.

BASE METALS

Aluminium continues to dominate the base metals complex with the Rusal sanction continuing to gyrate market expectations on future supply. The broad based recovery in the base metals continue to rely on the trade rhetoric from the US and China. Rmseed and nickel were down by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively at the time of writing while the rest were mostly unchanged the exception being tin which was up by 0.5% at $21,030 per tonne.

ENERGY

its report on US crude stocks showing a buildup of 3.3 million barrels in the week ending April 6 compared to a 4.6 million deficit in the previous reading while analysts expected a 0.6M drawdown with total inventories now up to 428.6 million barrels remaining below average for this time of year. Natural Gas prices trended sideways in a five point range for the complete week after strong rally in the previous week.

17/04/2018

NCDEX Fundamentals SPICES Trend remained volatile for Jeer with many mandis closed. Prices however found strong support at these lower levels. High arrivals amidst some fall in demand kept sentiments down but traders anticipate the exports to pick up in coming weeks that could support prices in medium term. Moderately firm trend persisted for Turmeric as it found immediate strong support at these lower levels after the recent fall. With harvesting over the demand for the new crop is picking up on the export and domestic front More uptrend likely.

OIL & OILSEEDS Soybean futures traded range bound initially before finishing slightly lower. The most active May contract closed at a support of 3850 indicating a dicey solution. But considering stronger fundamentals buying to be considered if May soybean fails to stay below another strong support of 3825. Mentha Oil Traders anticipate prices have fallen a lot over last few months and further fall may be unsustainable. Higher sowing figures amidst lack of strong demand had kept any strong uptrend limited.

GUAR COMPLEX

Guar failed to hold on to the higher levels as profit booking set in after the recent uptrend. Firming up of Crude oil prices supported market sentiments. However high stocks lack of strong export demand amidst reports of good Monsoon could keep up trend limited. Normal monsoon predictions by Sky met good for Guar sowing prospects from June onwards.

OTHERS Sluggish trend persisted in soya oil and it seems that the domestic trade participants preferred factoring in the inputs available from Tuesdays USDA report. The report was neutral to slightly bearish for soya oil. The US soya oil production and end stock was revised slightly higher. On the other hand global soya oil Argentina soya oil and domestic soya oil was estimated lower.RM seed ended lower on the midweek. The recent news of UP government to procure soon checked the downward movement during greater part of the day. 9

17/04/2018

Calls of the Week (MCX) COPPER Last week Copper Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 453.80 during the week and closed at 442.75 with the overall gain of 1.00% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect positive movement in it as it sustaining above the resistance trend line appear on the above image with the positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 448 then it can test the level of 462 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 441

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 448

Target

462.00

441.00

CRUDE OIL Last week CRUDE OIL Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 4419 during the week and closed at 4401 with the overall gain of 9.23% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect correction on oil prices as it is forming Head & shoulder pattern on higher level indicating negative movement for short term basis For this week, if it breaks the level of 4310 then it can test the level of 4180 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 4371.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Sell

Below 4310

Target

4180.00

4371.00

17/04/2018

Calls of the Week (NCDEX) RMSEED The primary trend of RMSEED is negative and from last couple of trading weeks market is trading with negative sentiment. It made a low of 3905 during the week and closed at 3927 with the overall lost of 1.68% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its sustaining below the major psychological support level of 4000 with the negative bias. For this week, if it breaks the level of3890 then it can test the level of 3740 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 3951.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action Entry Range

DETAILS

Sell Below 3890

Target

3740

3951

GUARSEED Last week Guarseed10 May Futures started the week on negative note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a low of 4033.50 during the week and closed at 4111.50 with the overall of loss of 0.41% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in its forming negative divergence on the in RSI and sustaining below the support level breakout. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4033 then it can test the level of 3893during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 4093.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action Entry Range

DETAILS

Sell Below 4033

Target

3893

4093

17/04/2018

Calls of the Week (FOREX) JPYINR Last week JPYINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 61.3400 in the initial part of the week. In the later part of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 60.6600 with the overall loss of 0.10% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major support level of 60.6200 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect bounce back in it from support level.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy Above 61.1800

Target

61.6800

60.9700

EURINR Last week EURINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 81.0750 in the initial part of the week. In the later part of the week, most of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 80.4625 with the overall gain of 0.88% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major resistance level of 81.1900 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 81.2000

Target

81.6000

80.9500

17/04/2018

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DISCLOSURE (प्रकटीकयण) : High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market.

हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी कंऩननमां अनुसंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कंऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के जायीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनुऩारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कंऩनी औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रे ड नहीं कयें गे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body.

ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को केवर याम के रूऩ भें दे खें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पैसरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कंऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकंऩनी के खखराप कोई भुकदभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है ।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ) : The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबनू तमां औय ऺनतऩनू ता (भआ ु वजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सझ ु ावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा।

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ): (a) (अ)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest; हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार

रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कंऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की

प्रकृनत है |

(a)

(फ)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,

हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदे भंद

स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं |

(a)

(स)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;

हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशव े यों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है । ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनू ता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (अ)

हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने

(b)

The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

(ब)

अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कंऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है ।

(c )

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;

(स) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने

वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कंऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |

ववषम कंऩनी के अधधकायी, ननदे शक मा कभाचायी के रूऩ भें कबी बी काभ

17/04/2018