Commodity Research Report 17 august 2015 Ways2Capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

102.35

101.90

101.45

101

100

99.65

98.75

346

342

340

338/

336

334

330

326

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2015 2967 2902

2837

2812

2772

2747

2707

2642

2577

GOLD

05OCT 2015 2641 26212 0

26014

25892

25718

25694

25618

25420

25222

LEAD

31 AUG 2015 119

117

115

114

113

112

111

109

107

NATURAL GAS 26 AUG 2015 191

188

185

183

182

180

179

176

173

710

700

696

690

686

680

670

660

36620

36021

35690

35091

34760

33830

32900

121

120

119

118

117

115

113

ALUMINIUM COPPER

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

31 AUG 2015 104. 103.25 15 31 AUG 2015 350

NICKEL

31 AUG 2015 720

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3848 37550 0

ZINC

31 AUG 2015 125

123

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

31-AUG-2015 109.80 106.90

104

102

101

99.90

98.40

95.50

92.70

COPPER

31-AUG-2015 374

361

348

343

335

330

322

309

296

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-2015 3354

3173

2992

2890

2811

2709

2630

2449

2268

GOLD

05-OCT-2015 29034 27876

26718

26244

25560

25086

24402

23244

22086

LEAD

31-AUG-2015 130

124

118

116

112

110

106

100

94

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 214

204

194

188

184

178

174

164

154

789

741

717

693

669

645

597

549

37556

36489

35223

34156

32890

30557

28224

125

122

117

114

109

101

93

ALUMINIUM

EXPIRY

R4

R3

NICKEL

31-AUG-2015 837

SILVER

04-SEP-2015 42222 39889

ZINC

31-AUG-2015 141

133


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

576

572

568

566

564

562

560

556

552

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3332

3264

3196

3154

3128

3086

3060

2992

2924

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4310

4265

4220

4191

4175

4146

4130

4085

4040

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

16140 15890

15640

15495

15390 15245 15140 14890

14640

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

4687

4643

4599

4584

4555

4540

4511

4467

4423

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4224

4183

4142

4123

4101

4082

4060

4019

3978

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-2015

592

582

572

568

562

558

552

542

532

SYBEANIDR

20-AUG-2015

3602

3439

3276

3194

3113

3031

2950

2787

2624

RMSEED

18-SEP-2015

4540

4409

4278

4220

4147

4089

4016

3885

3754

JEERAUNJHA

18-SEP-2015

17500 16765

16030

15690

15295 14955 14560 13825

13090

CHANA

18-SEP-2015

5100

4901

4702

4635

4503

4436

4304

4105

3906

CASTORSEED

18-SEP-2015

4544

4383

4222

4163

4061

4002

3900

3739

3578


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ DOMESTIC DEMAND DROPPED OF GOLD Consumer demand in India for gold had dropped by 25 per cent during the calendar year’s second quarter (April-June) to 154.5 tonnes, from 204.9 tonnes a year before.In dollar terms, says the World Gold Council (WGC), it dropped by 30 per cent to $5.9 billion during the quarter as compared to $8.5 bn a year before. The demand forecast is 900-1,000 tonnes in 2015 (calendar year) as compared to 841 tonnes in 2014. The fall in China’s consumer demand during the quarter from a year before was only five per cent.Looking ahead, there are encouraging signs in moving into what are traditionally the busiest quarters for gold buying in India and China. China has remained much ahead of India in terms of gold demand. In the June quarter, it was 230 tonnes, compared to 154.5 tonnes. Till 2012, China was trailing India.Extreme weather patterns overshadowed rural demand in the quarter, which had a direct impact on incomes among the rural population (more than half of India’s demand). Smuggling was 175 tonnes last year and would be lower this year, substantially due to better enforcement, demand not driving towards a huge premium and official supplies (enough importers) also available. Jewelry demand at some high-end, branded chain stores in larger cities saw modest growth. This contrasted with sizable losses suffered by small, independent jewelers in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. During April–June, jewelry retailer Titan declared it had been one of the toughest quarters for the company, as sentiment was so weak. Jewelry sales volumes dropped by 10 per cent year-on-year. Their Gold plus range, designed for ‘semi-urban and rural customers, was one of the poorest performing, with sales value down 24 per cent over a year. While wedding-related demand was affected, An interesting trend is the rapid growth of door (a semi-pure alloy of gold and silver, usually created at the mine site and then transported to a refinery for further purification) as a proportion of imports; this element grew five-fold, from 9.2 tonnes in Q2 of 2014 to 55.8 tonnes. This might have been driven by refiners actively seeking out supplies of door, to make the most of the difference between duties on these and bullion imports. In any case, the groundswell of these imports have contributed to the inventory overhang. Indian jewelry demand over these six months declined a modest seven tonnes from a year before. With Diwali heralding the onset of the wedding season in mid-November, prospects for the year's second half are supportive, particularly with the local price having dropped


substantially in recent weeks. Investment demand in India is, however, at a six-year low. Despite reasonable levels of interest around Akshaya Tritiya in April, this demand contracted for a third quarter in a row, declining 30 per cent to 36.5 tonnes. Uncertain price expectations were a factor, as was the stock market, which has continued to capture the attention of investors with its continued strong performance. The weak rural economy played a further role. Those rural investors most affected by the Q1 rains were more inclined to sell gold to supplement declining incomes than make fresh purchases.

� Silver Silver prices were down by Rs 307 to Rs 35,784 per kg in futures trade on Thursday, tracking a weak trend overseas coupled with profit-booking by speculators.In futures trading, silver for delivery in September lost Rs 307 or 0.85 per cent to trade at Rs 35,784 per kg in a business turnover of 1,075 lots.Similarly, the white metal for delivery in December declined by Rs 298 or 0.81 per cent to Rs 36,553 per kg in a business volume of 32 lots.In Singapore, silver traded 0.74 per cent lower at USD 15.42 an ounce.Apart from profit-booking by participants, a weak trend in precious metals in the Asian region led to the fall in silver prices in futures trade here.

� Crude Oil Oil prices extended losses in Asia on Wednesday as dealers worried about China's economy following its surprise currency devaluation, while oversupply concerns also added to downward pressure.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery fell five cents to $43.03 while Brent crude for September slipped 35 cents to $48.83 in late-morning trade. WTI yesterday sank to its lowest level since March 2009, while Brent also fell in London, after China's central bank moved to devalue its currency by nearly two percent against the US dollar.The People's Bank of China again lowered the daily fix that sets the value of the Chinese currency against the greenback today by 1.62%, sending a new shock wave through financial markets.The Chinese yuan continues to weaken for the second day, which could suggest further weakening of oil prices.

Investors fear Beijing's move signal led concerns over growth in the world's second-largest economy and top energy consumer, which came after data published over the weekend showed a slump in Chinese trade.It also pushed up the greenback, which strengthened further against Asian currencies today, which hurts dollar-denominated commodity prices by making them more expensive for international buyers.


✍ Aluminium Aluminium prices fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 101.65 per kg in futures trade on Thursday after traders reduced their exposure amid weak global cues. Besides, sluggish demand in the domestic spot market weighed.At Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminum for delivery this month eased 65 paise, or 0.64 per cent, to Rs 101.65 per kg in a business turnover of 181 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in September traded lower by 55 paise, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 103.30 per kg in nine lots.Weakness in base metal pack at the LME as China's yuan slid for the third day after its worst loss since 1994 and muted demand at the domestic spot market kept up the pressure.Meanwhile, aluminum prices fell 0.3 per cent at LME.

✍ Copper Extending its slide, copper futures fell by another 0.96% to Rs 329.20 per kg on Wednesday as speculators engaged in trimming positions after China lowered the yuan against the dollar for the second straight day amid subdued demand at the domestic spot markets.Copper for delivery this month fell by Rs 3.20, or 0.96% to Rs 329.20 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange in a business turnover of 3,293 lots.The metal for delivery in far-month November shed Rs 3.25, or 0.96%, to Rs 336.50 per kg in a business volume of 187 lots.Weakening trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after China devalued its currency against the dollar for the second day , reflecting a slower outlook for growth as the central bank stuck to its plan to give market forces more sway in determining the exchange rate, put pressure on copper futures here.The currency weakened 1.6% to 6.4264 per dollar after a 1.8% tumble on Tuesday.Globally, copper for delivery in three months traded was trading 1% lower at LME.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Refined soya Refined soya oil eased by 0.46 per cent to Rs 559.70 per 10 kg in futures market on Thursday as traders trimmed position amid ample stocks on higher supplies from producing regions against low demand.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October fell Rs 2.60, or 0.46 per cent to Rs 559.70 per 10 kg with an open interest of 90,025 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in August shed Rs 2.20, or 0.38 per cent to Rs 578.05 per 10 kg in 55,090 lots.Offloading of positions by participants triggered by sufficient stocks against easing demand at the spot market mainly kept pressure on refined soya oil prices in futures trade.


✍ Chana Chana prices were down 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,477 per quintal in futures trade on Thursday as speculators booked profits at prevailing levels.Besides, easing demand at the spot market, weighed on the prices.At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in August drifted by Rs 39, or 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,477 per quintal with an open interest of 12,960 lots.Similarly, the commodity for delivery in September traded lower by Rs 35, or 0.77 per cent to Rs 4,483 per quintal in 1,60,290 lots.Besides profit-booking by speculators at existing levels, fall in demand at the spot market mainly pulled down chana prices in futures trade.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices were up 0.60 per cent to Rs 15,050 per quintal in futures trade on monday as traders widened positions, driven by pick up in demand in the spot market.Besides, restricted supplies from growing regions supported the upside.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in September month rose by Rs 90, or 0.60 per cent to Rs 15,050 per quintal with an open interest of 14,628 lots. Likewise, the spice for delivery in August contracts traded higher by Rs 80, or 0.55 per cent to Rs 14,755 per quintal in 7,653 lots.The rise in jeera futures prices to pick up in demand in the spot market against tight supplies from producing belts.

✍ Castorseed Castor seed prices fell by 0.08 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for August 2015 contract was trading at Rs. 3,985 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.08 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,980 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,988. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 3,980.

✍ Rape Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.45 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for August 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,137 per quintal, up by 1.45 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,061 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,078. It touched the intraday high of Rs. 4,154. India produces 5.5 million MT to7 million MT annually and about 0.15 million MT is retained for sowing and direct consumption as seed which leaves about 4.8-5.1 million MT for crushing and extracting oil.


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