Commodity Research Report 19 December 2016 Ways2Capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

122

121

120

119

118

117

116

115

114

COPPER

28-FEB-2017

396

394

392

390

388

386

384

382

380

CRUDE OIL

19-DEC-2016

3664

3641

3618

3594

3575

3549

3527

3503

3482

GOLD

03-FEB-2017

27577

27463

27348

27243

27132

27024

26911

26802

26693

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

158

157

156

155

154

153

152

151

150

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015

242

239

236

233

230

227

224

221

218

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

792

785

777

770

763

757

750

743

737

SILVER

03-MAR-2017

40497

40267

40033

39811

39608

39389

39178

38966

38751

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

190

189

188

187

186

185

184

183

182

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

127

125

123

121

COPPER

28-FEB-2017

406

402

398

CRUDE OIL

19-DEC-2016

3721

3686

GOLD

03-FEB-2017

27991

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

119

117

115

113

111

694

390

386

382

378

374

3651

3616

3581

3548

3511

3483

3447

27783

27578

27363

27155

26952

26748

27536

27329

163

161

159

157

155

153

151

149

147

247

243

239

235

231

227

223

219

215

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

843

826

808

790

765

749

731

713

698

SILVER

03-MAR-2017

41413

41051

40693

40314

39653

39302

38937

38571

38217

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

195

193

191

189

187

185

183

181

179

Monday, 19 December 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD FEB ABOVE 27300 TGT 27600 SL 27000 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY ZINC DEC ABOVE 187.10 TGT 190.70 SL 183.90 SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 236 TGT 228 SL 242.10

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

USDINR

28-DEC-2016

68.45

EURINR

28-DEC-2016

GBPINR JPYINR

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

68.27 68.03

67.88

67.71

67.57

67.39

67.24

67.10

71.85

71.65 71.45

71.15

71

70.80

70.60

70.40

70.20

28-DEC-2016

85.50

85.20

84.80

84.60

84.40

84.20

84

83.80

28-DEC-2016

58.60

58.40 58.20

58

57.80

57.60

57.40

57.20

57

85

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-DEC-2016

68.80

68.50

68.20

67.90

67.60

67.30

67

66.70

66.40

EURINR

28-DEC-2016

72.10

71.80

71.50

71.20

70.90

70.60

70.30

70

69.70

GBPINR

28-DEC-2016

85.70

85.40

85.10

84.80

84.50

84.20

83.90

83.60

83.30

JPYINR

28-DEC-2016

58.90

58.60

58.30

58

57.70

57.40

57.10

56.80

56.50

WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 58 TGT 58.60 SL 57.40 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GBPINR DEC ABOVE 86.20 TGT 87.30 SL 85.20 BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 59.60 TGT 60.70 SL 58.60


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2017

736

734

732

730

728

726

724

722

720

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2017

3130

3110

3090

3070

3050

3030

3010

2990

2970

RMSEED

20-JAN-2017

4520

4500

4480

4460

4440

4420

4400

4380

4360

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2017

17950 17800

17650

17500 17350 17200 17050 16900

16750

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2017

3340

3320

3300

3280

3260

3240

3220

3200

3180

TMC

20-APR-2017

7150

7100

7050

7000

6950

6900

6850

6800

6750

DATE

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2017

742

738

734

730

726

722

718

714

710

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2017

3160

3130

3100

3070

3040

3010

2980

2950

2920

RMSEED

20-JAN-2017

4550

4520

4490

4460

4430

4400

4370

4340

4310

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2017

18400 18100

17800

17500 17200 16900 16600 16300

16000

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2017

3370

3340

3310

3280

3250

3220

3190

3160

3130

TMC

20-APR-2017

7600

7400

7200

7000

6800

6600

6400

6200

6000

DATE

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17300 TGT 1700 SL 16900 BUY GUARSEED JAN ABOVE 3285 TGT 3370 SL 3239 PREVIOUS WEEEK CALL BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 18400 TGT 18800 SL 18040 BUY DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 8050 TGT 8230 SL 7920


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS GLOBAL UPDATE ✍ BULLION Gold prices bounced off the previous session's 10-month lows on Friday, but the precious metal still posted its sixth straight weekly decline as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates in the months ahead continued to weigh.Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $7.60, or 0.67%, to end the week at $1,137.40 a troy ounce. A day earlier, prices sank to $1,124.30, a level not seen since February 2.For the week, gold futures lost $24.10, or 2.1%, as the U.S. dollar soared after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and signaled it expects to raise rates more quickly than previously anticipated in 2017.The U.S. central bank predicted it would raise interest rates three times in 2017, up from the two hikes predicted in September.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 102.92 late Friday, not far from Thursday's 14-year high of 103.55.Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.Gold prices have slumped since Donald Trump was elected president as rising U.S. bond yields and a rally in stocks markets have damped its appeal. Silver futures for March delivery climbed 25.7 cents, or 1.6%, on Friday to settle at $16.21 a troy ounce. The contract fell to a six-month low of $15.92 in the prior session. On the week, silver lost 74.4 cents, or 4.4%.In the week ahead, market players will be eyeing the release of Thursday’s final reading on U.S. third quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and further hints on the future path of monetary policy.Meanwhile, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, with most investors expecting the bank to hold its negative interest rates and 10-year government bond yield target steady.

✍ ENERGY Oil futures finished higher on Friday, turning positive for the week amid indications that major crude producers are adhering to their promise to pull back on output.On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent Oil for February delivery jumped $1.19, or 2.2%, to settle at $55.21 a barrel by close of trade Friday, not far from a 17-month high of $57.89 touched earlier


in the week.London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of 88 cents, or 1.6%, on the week. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in February tacked on 98 cents, or 1.9%, to end the week at $52.95 a barrel, within sight of a one-and-a-half-year peak of $54.51 logged on December 12.For the week, New York-traded oil futures rose 40 cents, or 0.8%. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that all Russian oil companies have agreed to cut crude output under Moscow's agreements with members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.In addition, Kuwait reportedly notified customers that it would cut supplies from January as part of an effort by OPEC to stabilize the oil market. OPEC members have agreed to reduce output by a combined 1.2 million barrels per day starting from January 1, their first such deal since 2008.However, there are some worries in the market about production increases in the U.S. and Libya.Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 12 to 510, a level not seen in almost a year.Meanwhile, Libya, which is allowed to ramp up production as part of the OPEC deal, restarted operations at two key oilfields. Libyan officials said the restarting of the oilfields and a connected pipeline could bring back more than 200,000 barrels a day of oil within days.In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.Oil traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that producers will stick to their agreement to cut production next year.Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

✍ COPPER Copper for March delivery slumped 3.6 cents, or 1.4%, on Friday to end at $2.564 a pound after touching a daily low of $2.543, a level not seen since November 30 The outlook for copper is greatly focused on China. Copper consumption will grow as a consequence of overall economic growth. China has been a shining example of overall economic growth, growing at an annual rate of 9.9% between 1980 and 2010. Most forecasts do not have China slowing down anytime soon; the IMF predicts China's economy will expand at an annual rate of 9.7% over the next 5 years. Copper prices are attempting to breakout higher this morning, after declining for the last three consecutive sessions. While today’s upswing in price has brought the commodity back into positive territory for the week, the commodity is still considered to be technically consolidating on the daily chart. So far Copper prices have not exceed last week’s high of 2.7354. While this does not invalidate the metals ongoing uptrend, it does technically put directional trading on hold until copper prices breakout.


Technically, Copper prices are now testing resistance found at 2.6413. This point is represented graphically as today’s R4 Camarilla pivot, and a move above suggests that the commodity is breaking out higher intraday. If prices continue to push higher, traders may look for the metal to first trade back towards the weekly high at 2.6963, and then potentially the value of daily resistance mentioned previously.In the event of a bearish price reversal, Copper prices should first be seen declining back beneath today’s R3 pivot at 2.6254. A move of this nature would at least temporarily nullify any early bullish momentum, and allow traders to start targeting a price move towards support. Support values include both the S3 and S4 pivots found at 2.5941 and 2.5776. It should be noted that if Copper prices trade below 2.5776, the commodity would set to conclude this week’s trading a new weekly lows.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SOYABEAN Informa Economics has increased their 2017 US soybean plantings to 88.862 million acres and slashed the US corn plantings projection to 90.151 million acres. A rising tide appears to lifting the soybean market. Whether that boat stays float is still an open question right now as the market enters a crucial time.The flood for beans comes from money. Soybeans showed fairly strong correlations to stock prices, crude oil and the dollar over the past month. But two legs of that tripod are beginning to look wobbly, suggesting the money flow story may be losing power.This doesn’t mean the fall soybean rally is history. Fundamentals of supply and demand still rule markets, and those are still fairly positive. USDA announced the sale of another 15.7 million bushels to China Monday, under its daily reporting system for large purchases. Soybean futures surged more than 5% overnight in China, led by a very strong global vegetable oil market..

✍ TURMERIC Futures contracts of turmeric traded mixed where the most active December contract closed higher because of short covering. •Prices of turmeric were unchanged in the key spot market of Erode. At Erode, the bulb variety of turmeric was quoted in the range of 7,500-7,700 rupees per 100 kg, and the finger variety was sold at 8,500-8,700 rupees, both unchanged from the previous close. Arrivals were estimated at 650 bags, down from Tuesday. The benchmark Nizamabad market in Telangana was shut due to a protest carried out by traders. Trade at the market will resume from Monday. Stocks of turmeric in NCDEX certified warehouse as of 29th


Nov 2016 declined from previous day to 2269 tonnes.

� CORIANDER Futures contracts of coriander hit 3% lower circuit due to likely higher delivery of old stocks nearing expiry. According to data from NCDEX, exchange warehouses hold 14,059 tn of coriander, of which 639 tn will expire on on Jan 5, and 12,517 tn on Feb 5, with deliveries scheduled for Dec-Jan. As a result, buyers are increasingly cutting their positions or avoiding new long positions.Prices of the spice also fell in the spot markets of Rajasthan due to likely increase in supply of the exchange delivered stocks in the next 4-6weeks. At Kota, the Badami variety was sold at 8,000 rupees per 100 kg, while the Eagle variety was sold at 8,100 rupees, both down 100- 150 rupees from Tuesday.


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