✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30- JUN-2017
122.60
122
121.60
120.90
120.50
119.90
119.50
118.80
118
COPPER
30- JUN-2017
373.00
371.20
369.60
367.50
365.90
363.8
362.20
360.10
359.00
CRUDE OIL
19-JUN-17
2940
2923
2911
2895
2883
2867
2855
2839
2820
GOLD
04-AUG-2017
28950
28892
28845
28768
28721
28644
28597
28520
28461
LEAD
30- JUN-2017
139.60
137.80
137
136.20
135.40
134.60
133.80
133.00
132.10
NATURAL GAS
25-JUN-2017
203.00
201.50
200.40
198.10
196.90
194.60
193.40
191.10
190.00
NICKEL
30- JUN-2017
584.70
582.70
580.70
577.70
575.70
572.70
570.70
567.70
564.70
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
39351
39131
38980
38731
38580
38331
38180
37931
37651
ZINC
30- JUN-2017
166.60
165.5
164.40
163.40
162.50
161.40
160.50
159.30
158.10
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30- JUN-2017
127
125.50
123.90
122
120.50
119
117.90
116.10
114.50
COPPER
30- JUN-2017
381.90
377.90
373.90
369.90
365.90
361.90
357.90
352.90
348.90
CRUDE OIL
19-JUN-17
3051
3015
2980
2925
2883
2850
2815
2775
2745
GOLD
04-AUG-2017
29451
29250
29100
28901
28721
28597
28420
28200
28020
LEAD
30- JUN-2017
148.10
145.50
142.50
139.50
135.40
133.40
130.40
128.40
125.40
NATURAL GAS
25-JUN-2017
207.90
204.50
202.50
199.50
196.90
193.10
190.10
187.10
184.10
NICKEL
30- JUN-2017
611.10
599.90
590.90
581.90
575.70
566.10
555.00
545.10
536.20
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
39980
39500
39150
38990
38580
38211
37950
37500
37110
ZINC
30- JUN-2017
171.50
168.50
166.50
164.50
162.50
160.10
157.50
154.90
152.10
Monday, 19. June .2017
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
28-JUNE-17
66.25
65.85
65.32
64.99
64.52
64.00
63.49
62.99
62.49
EURINR
28-JUNE-17
74.30
73.90
73.50
72.65
72.15
71.85
71.41
71.01
70.60
GBPINR
28-JUNE-17
83.45
83.06
82.85
82.65
82.45
82.25
82.00
81.79
81.51
JPYINR
28-JUNE-17
59.32
58.92
58.52
58.32
57.99
57.60
57.30
57.00
56.30
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
28-JUNE-17
65.00
64.90
64.80
64.65
64.52
64.40
64.19
64.00
63.90
EURINR
28-JUNE-17
72.57
72.46
72.35
72.25
72.15
72.03
71.90
71.77
71.65
GBPINR
28-JUNE-17
82.95
82.81
82.70
82.56
82.45
82.31
82.17
82.05
81.90
JPYINR
28-JUNE-17
58.45
58.32
58.21
58.10
57.99
57.85
57.70
57.60
57.49
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-JUL-2017
649.00
646.00
643.00
640.00
637.00
635.00
632.00
629.00
626.00
SYBEANIDR
20-JUL-2017
2890
2867
2842
2821
2796
2775
2750
2729
2700
RMSEED
20-JUL-2017
3689
3655
3632
3613
3590
3571
3548
3529
3499
JEERAUNJHA
20-JUL-2017
19700
19563
19322
19143
18902
18723
18482
18303
18150
GUARSEED10
20-JUL-2017
3708
3658
3610
3578
3530
3498
3450
3418
3371
TMC
20-JUL-2017
5940
5890
5840
5806
5754
5720
5670
5638
5600
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-JUL-2017
660.00
654.90
649.00
643.00
637.00
632.00
626.00
620.00
614.00
SYBEANIDR
20-JUL-2017
2999
2950
2890
2842
2796
2750
2700
2650
2600
RMSEED
20-JUL-2017
3780
3740
3689
3632
3590
3571
3499
3445
3401
JEERAUNJHA
20-JUL-2017
20150
19900
19700
19322
18902
18482
18150
17900
17610
GUARSEED10
20-JUL-2017
3820
3778
3708
3610
3530
3450
3371
3350
3331
TMC
20-JUL-2017
6100
6000
5940
5840
5754
5670
5600
5554
5500
MCX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in three months and said it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market. In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a recent run of mixed economic data. The U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as largely transitory. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. It expects to begin the normalization of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. China's factory output and retail sales grew at a steady pace in May but investment slowed, reinforcing views that the world's second-largest economy will soon start to lose some momentum as lending costs rise and the property market cools. Global concerns about China have resurfaced since Moody's Investors Service downgraded its credit ratings last month, saying it expects the country's financial strength will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise. But most analysts predict only a gradual loss of momentum in coming months, especially as the government is keen to maintain economic and financial market stability ahead of a major political leadership reshuffle in autumn. May data released on Wednesday appeared to reinforce that consensus view, with still solid factory output and retail sales, and only a slight slowdown in fixed asset investment. However, property investment and construction showed a much sharper deceleration after a slew of government cooling measures in recent months. Factory output rose 6.5 percent in May from a year earlier, statistics bureau data showed. A drawdown in crude oil inventories will accelerate in the next three to four months, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said. Al-Falih, speaking to reporters in the Kazakh capital of Astana, also said Saudi Arabia planned to grow exports to the US in the long-term. “The US market will always be key (to us), in the long term we will continue and grow exports to the US, today the US is well supplied,” AlFalih told a briefing. On Saturday, the Saudi energy minister said: “There is no evidence a pact by global oil producers to curb output needs to be adjusted.” Al-Falih also said the decision by Saudi Arabia and some of its allies to cut ties with Qatar this week would not affect the oil pact. “I do not expect the diplomatic and political issues that have surfaced with Qatar to have any impact whatsoever on the oil production agreement,” he told reporters in Kazakhstan. US data this week showed a surprise 3.3- million-barrel build in crude stocks to 513.2 million barrels. Inventories of refined products also rose, despite the start of the peak-demand summer season. US
production is also increasing. Drillers added eight oil rigs in the week to Friday bringing the total count to 741, the most since April 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. The Saudi energy minister said that the data was a “local phenomenon.” ✍ GOLD Precious metals ended lower for a third straight week and the FOMC decision last week increased the selling pressure. The Fed is closely watching inflation but didn’t express any concern about the recent slowdown in headline and core CPI. Inflation expectations however continue to decline suggesting that hawkishness by the Fed is unwarranted. Investment demand has seen a pickup in recent weeks but holdings saw a decline last week as prices fell. Indian gold imports jumped in the first four months but demand has declined in the runup to the GST. The upcoming week is light on economic data and thereby we expect gold and silver to consolidate or drift lower before we get any positive triggers. Gold prices have been on a broader uptrend this year but have repeatedly failed to break above $1300 as markets still lack a major trigger to take prices beyond that important level. The major events in recent weeks have also provided no real trigger. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 1.00-1.25% as expected and most members see another rate hike at the end of this year. The Fed expects real GDP to rise 2.1-2.2% in 2017, compared to its previous outlook of 2.0-2.2%. The Fed is closely watching inflation but didn’t express any concern about the recent slowdown. The details about trimming of the $4.5 trillion balance were released but there was no start date announced. When the unwinding starts, the Fed will reduce reinvestments in Treasuries (TSY) at a rate of $6Bn/month and mortgage backed securities (MBS) at $4Bn/month, totalling $10bn/month initially. It will increase the reinvestment caps in steps of $10bn ($6TSY+ $4MBS) at 3 month intervals over 12 months until it reaches a total 50bn per month. While, the Fed wasn’t explicitly hawkish, lack of concern over low inflation and recent slowdown in data implied a hawkish stance which pressured precious metals. The other risk events in the past few weeks also have failed to help gold. The UK election resulted in Conservatives losing majority and market reactions were limited to the pound and UK assets with no global spillover. In the US, the testimony of ex-FBI director James Comey turned out to be a damp squib as he failed to clarify if the President obstructed investigation into his campaigns Russian links. Naturally, gold prices then fell back from seven month highs and the profit-taking is likely to extend in the near term. The main focus of the markets will now turn to US economic data. The core PCE remains at 1.5%, far from Fed’s 2% target while wage growth remains at 2.5% y/y. Inflation expectations also continue to decline suggesting that hawkishness by the Fed is unwarranted. US bond market's gauges on inflation remain near their lowest levels since November. In other data, Retail sales fell 0.3% last month and core CPI grew less than forecast at 1.7% y/y. Consumer sentiment fell to 94.5 suggesting lack of optimism in the economy while housing data also took a hit. Housing starts slumped 5.5% and building permits fell 4.9% in May. Labor market data, while good on the whole, still has room to improve. The Non-farm payrolls increased by just 138k in May and the payrolls for March and April were revised lower by 66k. The unemployment rate fell to a 16 year low of 4.3% but that was largely due to the drop in participation rate from 62.9% to 62.7%. Wage growth at 2.5% is still a good 100 bps lower compared to pre-recession levels suggesting that the labor market isn’t tight. Q2 GDP forecasts continued to be revised lower and the Atlanta Fed model suggests growth of 2.9%, down from
4.0% last month. The other factor that has supported gold in recent weeks is the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s economic and legislative policy agenda. Reports suggest that Trump is under investigation for possible obstruction of justice and this ongoing political uncertainty will underpin prices at lower levels. On the demand side, Gold premiums in India have collapsed with prices quoting at a discount of $2-3 an ounce has buying has slowed substantially in the run up to GST implementation. Jewellers have stocked heavily in the first four months and this will likely impact imports in the coming months. Gold ETF’s also saw an outflow with SPDR holdings down 13 tonnes last week. Global gold ETF holdings are up 44 tonnes so far this month. Silver ETF’s in contrast are down by 167 tonnes this month after inflows of 658 tonnes in May. iShares Silver ETF holdings are down ~140 tonnes month to date. Last week, spot gold prices fell by 1 percent to close at $1253.1 per ounce as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates but was less dovish than expected following a two-day meeting. It was the second time in three months that the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point, which was widely expected, and the U.S. central bank cited continued economic growth and job market strength. It also announced it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year. During the week, prices fell to a three-week low, weighed down by a stronger dollar as investors began to assess the potential for another U.S. rate hike later in the year, supported by data showing a strong U.S. jobs market. The losses in gold were limited, however, with bullion underpinned by myriad global uncertainties, including a report that U.S. President Donald Trump was under investigation. ✍ ENERGY WTI oil prices plunged by 2.4 percent last week to close at $44.7 per barrel as a surprise build in U.S. gasoline inventories and ongoing worries about heavy global supply weighed on it. Prices did not gain momentum despite following comments by some Reuters sources that Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will cut crude allocations to Asia in July to a total of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), deeper than in June. Further, Data from market intelligence firm Genscape estimating a draw of more than 1.8 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures last week added to the bullish sentiment. Oil has slumped despite output cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers including Russia. On May 25, the countries said they agreed to extend the cuts nine months through next March. Yet crude prices have slid about 12 percent since that day as other countries have boosted output. Crude oil saw a selloff for a fourth consecutive week as physical markets remain oversupplied and negative triggers continue to exacerbate the selling pressure. US oil rig count increased for a 22nd straight week, rising by 6 to 747 and has doubled y/y. Pressure on prices is also set to continue as we saw a surprise build in US gasoline inventories last week. US oil production continues to edge up and is likely to surpass its peak later this year as oil rigs are back near April 2015 levels. On the whole, we believe that rising US output and elevated global inventories will continue to cap prices and markets will require credible evidence of re-balancing to find a sustainable floor for oil prices. Natural gas remains weak on a seasonal basis and more downside cannot be
ruled out. Context Despite OPEC’s attempts to lift prices, oil is back near 6- month lows as fundamentals remain unsupportive. To offer a backdrop, the OPEC in its May meeting decided to extend output cuts until March 2018. This means OPEC and Non-OPEC combined production will continue to be cut by 1.8 mbpd for another 9 months. The OPEC believes that deal will bring inventories back in line with upper range of five-year averages. The OPEC in its November meeting will take a call on the strategy based on market conditions. Still, WTI prices have seen an extended selloff in the past few weeks as there are still no visible signs of tightness in the market. OPEC’s production edged higher by 0.3 mbpd in May to 32.1 mbpd as Libyan and Nigerian production increased. The re-balancing process remains slow and resumption in Nigerian and Libyan output has complicated the OPEC strategy. Nigerian production is back at a 16 month high of 2.2 mbpd after Royal Dutch Shell lifted force majeure on Forcados crude. Libyan output has nearly tripled from last year with production nearing 0.8 mbpd. This roughly translates to an increase of about 0.4-0.5 mbpd from these two and negates nearly half of the OPEC’s 1.2 mbpd cut. Non-OPEC supply forecasts also continue to be revised upwards. The IEA sees Non-OPEC supply growth of 1.5 mbpd next year compared to demand growth of 1.4 mbpd. The revisions have been largely prompted due the fast rebounding shale oil production in the US. Oil rig count has been increasing since June 2016 and is now at its highest since April 2015. At 747 rigs, US oil rigs have more than doubled from the same time last year and point to more increases in oil output. EIA forecasts show that US shale oil production is expected to rise further in June. The EIA drilling productivity report showed that shale oil output will likely increase by 122,000 bpd in June to 5.40 mbpd. To put this in perspective, in the downturn of 2015-2016, shale oil output fell from a peak of 5.46 million bpd in March 2015 to a low of 4.75 million bpd in December 2016. Since January 2017, shale production has started to edge up and is now almost back near its peak. Weekly data from EIA shows that total US oil production is comfortably above 9.3 million bpd, the highest since August 2015. The EIA forecasts output to reach a new record and surpass 10.0 mbpd next year. This is going to remain the biggest headwind for oil prices. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell last week, but an unexpected build in gasoline stocks provided another negative trigger to the market. Gasoline demand fell from 9.82 million bpd in late May to 9.27 million bpd despite the driving season which was particularly bearish. OECD oil inventories also remain 291 million barrels above the fiveyear average. On the whole, global oil stocks and US oil and product inventories still remain elevated and we are yet to see a sustained drawdown implying that market rebalancing has still not gathered pace and that it will be a long drawn process. As far geo-political factors go, oil prices have found little respite from the ongoing tussle between Qatar and other GCC countries. While oil and LNG exports from Qatar have not been impacted, the dispute is likely to impact OPEC unity and has raised questions about sustainability of the OPEC deal to cut output. This is probably the reason we haven’t seen any risk premium getting built into prices. For natural gas, prices fell as inventory injections continue and weather remains unsupportive. Working natural gas stocks are 2,709 Bcf, which is 11% less than the year-ago level and 9% more than the five-year average for this week. The weather outlook in the coming weak implies moderate demand and hence we are unlikely to see any major bounce back in prices. ✍ BASE METAL
Base metals traded mixed, with much of the action seen in Zinc and Lead, while copper and aluminium were under pressure and nickel traded flat. Copper was on track for its biggest weekly drop since early as markets priced in higher US interest rate environment that would support US dollar. Latest ILZSG data shows zinc in much wider deficit than anticipated, which could be supportive for zinc prices. Context Copper prices have been choppy in broad range trading at lower end of range, not being influenced by positive data points. Inventory on LME has been depleting continuously, but off late as we approach third Wednesday contract expiry, which is this week, it often triggers influx of stock registrations in LME warehouses as traders deliver against short positions, after depletion process tarts again. We will have to wait and watch how this expiry happens and if similar activity is due this week also, which could pressurize prices. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows a 30% drop in nation's copper import volume in April compared with previous month. Declines in LMElisted copper began quickening in March as traders caught wind of weakening Chinese demand. The price has been falling in lockstep with PMI. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week and indicated further tightening before year-end, boosting dollar and making commodities priced in dollar term more expensive for holders of other currencies. The hawkish tone from Fed has sapped some of interest for commodities in general and copper also. Large speculators raised their net positions in Copper markets this week. Copper speculative positions have gained for a second week and for four out of last five weeks. Net bullish positions are above +10,000 contract level for second week after falling below this threshold on May 30th. On data front, U.S. homebuilding fell for third straight month to lowest level in eight months as construction activity declined broadly, suggesting that housing could be drag on economic growth in second quarter. Chinese data last week showed China's economy generally remained on solid footing in May with industrial production at 6.5%, but tighter monetary policy, cooling housing market and slowing investment reinforced views that it will gradually lose momentum in coming months. Chinese fixed asset investment slipped to 8.6% in January-May, a decline of 0.3% point from Jan-April reading. Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI, fell below 50 in May for the first time in 11 months, suggesting contraction. China's central bank plans to step up support for "green" financing, including incentives to encourage banks to extend more loans for projects friendly to environment. In other metals, Nickel prices have been sideways after a brief fall over the last couple of weeks, as prices have been pressured by expectations of more supply from Philippines and Indonesia. Chinese steel futures rallied last week, supported by government efforts to tackle a glut, even as the outlook for demand may not be too promising, particularly from its property sector. Zinc and lead have been trading from over last week, recovering sharply from recent lows. The latest ILZSG data shows, global market for refined zinc metal was in deficit by 112,000 mt for first four months of 2017, with total reported inventories declining by 115,000 mt over same period, as per ILZSG. This compares with 20,000 mt deficit for same period in 2016. A rise in world refined zinc metal demand of 3.7% YoY to 4.606 million mt in January-April was primarily influenced by a 42.9% recovery in apparent usage in the US. World zinc mine production increased by 7.3% to 4.269 million mt, mainly due to higher output in China, Eritrea, India, Peru and Turkey. China imported a total of 385,000 mt of zinc contained in zinc concentrates in JanuaryApril, an increase of 58,000 mt compared to the same period of 2016, but Chinese net imports of refined zinc
metal fell 114,000 mt year on year to 99,000 mt, which shows clear shift to concentrates as TC-RCs have been on the lower side.LME Copper prices fell by 2.4 percent last week to close at $5663/t on Friday following decision by the US fed to hike rates for the second time in three months in June. The Fed added to the hawkish tone saying it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market. However, sharp decline was cushioned as supply disruption concerns gained traction after heavy rains in Northern Chile. Operations at the BHP Billiton's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine had been suspended as a result of snowing. Also, mining activities at State-run Codelco’s Chuquicamata deposit and nearby Radomiro Tomic and Ministro Hales had been suspended as a preventative measure, while Antofagasta said Centinela and Zaldivar suffered intermittent interruptions. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW ✍ SILVER Silver prices opened flat in the last session and prices made a high of 38830. Later after opening session prices fell gradually for the remaining session till low of 38430. Prices have been falling gradually after taking strong resistance around its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent fall from 42750 til 37720 placed at 40828 level and also after breaking down from its short term rising trend line support. Prices are expected to continue this fall towards next strong support placed around 37700 level.
✍
CRUDEOIL
Crude has remained firmly on the defensive since Wednesday’s inventories data with further concerns surrounding underlying over-supply as US output continues to increase. The EIA said Wednesday that gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by roughly 2m barrels against expectations for a decline of 457,000 barrels. The bearish inventory report added to the current
negative sentiment on oil, after the IEA said Wednesday that non-Opec output was set to increase over the near term. "For total non-Opec production, we expect production to grow by 700,000 bpd this year, but our first outlook for 2018 makes sobering reading for those producers looking to restrain supply,the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. Rising non Opec output has dented Opec and its allies’ global pact to reduce oversupply in the market, which has pressured prices for nearly three years. Technically market is under short covering getting support at 2858 and below same could see a test of 2840 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2894, a move above could see prices testing 2912.
� NICKEL Nickel prices opened slightly higher in the last session and prices consolidated for the whole session in the range of 574-579 levels. Prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance in the previous session and are expected to recover from these levels if break above its recent multiple highs placed near 582 level towards next strong resistances placed around its previous swing highs near 609 and 619 level. Immediate strong supports are placed around 563 and 558 levels.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � SOYABEAN Soybean Jul futures corrected sharply on Thursday due to good forecast of rains in soybean growing area of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in coming week. As per the government weekly sowing data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was at 26,900 ha till last week, up 16.5% on year. The prices were under pressure all season on higher arrivals and bumper crop with the farmers. However, reports of increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for soybean by Rs. 175 per quintal to Rs. 2,950 per quintal may support prices. As per Agmarknet data, arrivals of soybean during last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes in the previous week. CBOT July soybean futures rose on Thursday, supported by a better-than-expected crushing report in the US. The National Oilseed Processors Association said on Thursday morning that its members crushed 149.246 million bushels during May, the second busiest May on record and up from 139.134 million bushels in April. As per USDA report, US soybeans are 92% planted vs 83% wk ago (87 pct 5-yr avg). There are forecasts for crop-friendly rains in the United States which may be pressure on prices. Moreover, higher beginning stocks and better production forecast for coming season will keep the prices under control.Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 1.51% at 2832 on profit booking after prices gained on anticipation that farmers may shift out of soybean this season and go for other kharif crops. The prices were under pressure all season on higher arrivals and bumper crop with the farmers. As per the government weekly sowing data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was at 26,900 ha till last week, up 16.5% on year. However, reports of increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for soybean by Rs. 175 per quintal to Rs. 2,950 per quintal may support prices. As per data, arrivals of soybean during last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes
in the previous week. As per USDA report, US soybeans are 92% planted vs 83% wk ago (87 pct 5-yr avg). As per USDA, 2016/17 world ending stocks are estimated at 93.2 mt, up 3.11 mt from the May projection. The 2017/18 world ending stocks are shown as rising 3.41 mt to 92.22 mt. Informa Economics updated their 2017 soybean planted acres estimate to 89.362 million acres, down slightly from May’s number of 89.7 million acres. US soybean planting is 92% complete as which is up from 91% in the corresponding period last year and also up from 5 year average of 87%. Soybean emergence is reported at 77% which is at par with the corresponding period last year and also up from 5 year average of 73%. Refined soy oil futures jumped higher on Thursday tracking weaker Rupees and increase in base import prices of soy oil for next fortnight. Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of May by $1 to $812 per tonne. Yesterday, Rupees weaken by about 0.48% against US dollar to close at 64.54. Edible oil prices have increase over the week on anticipation that Government may increase import duty. As per SEA, Import of soy oils during May 2017 is reported at 3.40 lt compared to 1.78 lt in may 2016 – up by 91% however, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from NovMay to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period
✍ RMSEED Mustard Jul futures fell 1.40% on Thursday due to profit booking by the market participants are expecting lower crush demand due to higher imports of crude rape oil. As per SEA recent data, mustard oil imports increase by 55.7% in May compared to last year imports. Moreover, imports for period Nov-May increase to 1.18 lt in 2016/17 from 1.72 lt in the previous year. The trend is still upwards as there is tight supplies in the physical market and improving crushing demand. Meal exports from the country during last month jumped which improves demand for oilseed. Mustard meal exports have increase 1275% in May this year at 42,488 tonnes compared to last year in May. Last year, India exports about 3,090 tonnes of meals in May. The arrivals have been lower last week in the physical market. As per agmarknet data, the mustard arrivals down to 32,344 tonnes, last week compared to 59,125 tonnes in the previous week.
✍ SUGAR Sugar Futures close unchanged due to reports of record sugar production next year. Sugar output in Maharashtra is set to see a dramatic revival in coming season estimating a production of 73 lt for 201718, a rise of 74% from last. According to government data, Sugarcane acreage in the country was at 47.4 lakh ha, higher than 44.8 lakh ha a year ago. According to industry sources, India's 2017/18 sugar production will likely jump 25% from the previous year to 25 mt on good monsoon forecast. ICE Raw sugar futures slumped further on Thursday, on expectation of higher output in Brazil. Brazil's statecontrolled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro further cut its average gasoline and diesel prices on Wednesday, reducing the competitiveness of ethanol for Brazilian producers and adding to the bearish
mood in the sugar market. The sugar market is heading for a surplus of 3.5 million tonnes in 2017/18, Sucden said in a quarterly report
✍ COTTON MCX cotton continue to close lower for the 4th trading session on Thursday on anticipation of good production in the next season as sowing progress in the country starts in a brisk manner. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 14.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 43% compared to last year acreage of 9.87 l ha for same period. In Haryana, acreage was at 630,000 ha, up 28% on year, while in Punjab, the area under cotton was up 52% at 382,000 ha, the data showed. As per ICAC, Cotton area in India is forecast to expand by 7% to 11.3 million hectares, and production could increase by 3% to 6 mt in 2017/18. ICE futures fell fell over two percent to their lowest since December on prospects of robust new crop yields due to favorable weather in the top growing regions. The plantings have been going well in the U.S., China, and India. The weather has continuously been moderate to good in all the planting areas. US sowing data showed 92% of cotton crops were planted in the US by the week ended June 12, up from 80% in the previous week. Speculators reduced a bullish stance in cotton futures and options to the lowest since November 2016.
✍ JEERA Jeera Jun futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of good physical demand. There is good physical and exports demand while the stocks in the Exchange warehouse are diminishing. The jeera arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year. As per Agmarknet data, about 10,688 tonnes of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse as on Jun 14 were 1,238 tonnes which has been constant in June. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,500 tonnes. NCDEX Turmeric fell over 1% on Thursday mainly on profit booking after surging over 3% in the previous session. The physical demand is rising and market arrivals are diminishing. However, the trend seems to be little sideways on reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers. Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per Agmarknet data, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. As per spice board, Increased global demand for turmeric, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, drove its exports to attain figures of 1,16,500 tonnes in volume and crossed Rs 1,241 crore in value terms in 2016-17
✍ TURMERIC Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 3.27% at 5754 on profit booking after rising as the physical demand is rising and market arrivals are diminishing. Pressure also seen on prices on reports of good rains in
turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers. Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per data, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. On the export front, country exported about 1.11 lakh tonnes in 2016/17 up by 30% compared to last year exports of 85,412 tonnes, as per government data. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,606 to Rs. 7,591 a quintal and the root variety sold at Rs. 5,158 to Rs. 6,274 a quintal. At the Regulated Marketing Committee, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,974 to Rs. 7,169, root variety sold at Rs. 5,009 to Rs. 6,019. Andhra Pradesh government projected 2016-17 turmeric crops at 155,000 ton up from 121,000 ton in the previous year. According to traders, 2016-17 output is seen at 7.5 million bags of 70 kg each and with over stock of nearly 3 million bags total availability is expected around 10.5 million bags. As against this, domestic demand is estimated at 5.5 million bags and export at 2.2 million bags. Country exported 97,596 ton turmeric during April-Feb up 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 ton In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5557.15 Rupees dropped -17.85 Rupees. NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
� RM
SEED
NCDEX RMSeed continues to form lower highs and lower lows on the daily time frame. Strong short-term resistances are placed at Rs.3680 / 3760 whereas Rs.3510 / 3460 may act as immediate supports. Sideways to negative movement is likely as long as price stays below Rs.3680 mark.
� GUARSEED Guar seed prices opened slightly higher in the last session and prices consolidated for most of the session in a narrow range. Prices rose strongly in the closing session and closed near days high of 3562 level. Prices have
broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance and also closed above the same for previous three consecutive sessions.NCDEX Guarseed took support near Rs.3170 mark and has bounced sharply. The shortterm bullish momentum is likely to continue targeting resistances near Rs.3650 / 3760 level. Strong short-term supports are placed at Rs.3365 / 3150. Dip buying is advised.
� SOYAOIL Soy oil prices opened higher with gap in the last session and prices corrected sharply for first half of the session and made a low of 634.50 level. Prices have taken strong resistance around 639 level in the previous few sessions and formed a bearish bats harmonic pattern on the daily chart which is suggesting a strong correction in the commodity for the near term. Prices are expected to fall from these levels towards immediate
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