✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-SEP-2016
108
107
106
105
105
104
104
103
102
COPPER
31-SEP-2015
329
327
326
325
323
321
318
315
312
CRUDE OIL
19-SEP-2016
2968
2946
2916
2905
2864
2842
2812
2800
2788
GOLD
05-OCT-2016
31032
30983
30898
30858
30780
30764
30715
30630
30568
LEAD
30-SEP-2016
132
131
129
128
126
125
123
121
119
NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2016
214
208
202
200
196
194
190
184
178
650
640
630
NICKEL
30-SEP-2016
690
680
670
666
660
656
SILVER
04-SEP-2015
46751
46114
45857
45565
45308
45016
44759
44465
43890
ZINC
05-DEC-2016
151
150
149
148
147
146
145
143
141
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-SEP-2016
111
109
108
107
106
105
104
101
99
COPPER
31-AUG-2015
352
343
334
329
319
314
308
301
297
CRUDE OIL
19-AUG-2015
3380
3286
3193
3085
2967
2901
2874
2814
2793
GOLD
05-OCT-2015
31496
31351
31082
30668
29850
28556
27691
26203
25852
LEAD
30-SEP-2015
138
136
136
132
128
126
124
122
119
NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015
224
215
212
201
195
190
186
181
176
NICKEL
30-SEP-2016
738
729
710
691
683
661
653
648
636
SILVER
05-DEC-2016
47515
46947
46524
45772
44484
43659
43059
42847
42048
ZINC
30-SEP-2016
157
154
151
147
145
143
141
139
137
Monday, 19 September 2016
WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31117 TGT 31444 SL 30797 BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 2999 TGT 3091 SL 2914 ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
USDINR
29 AUG 2016
67.75`
EURINR
29 AUG 2016
GBPINR JPYINR
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
67.55 67.35
67.15
67
66.80
66.60
66.40
66.20
75.97
75.85 75.63
75.40
75.10
74.90
74.70
74.50
74.30
29 AUG 2016
89.30
89.10 88.90
88.70
88.50
88.30
88.10
87.90
87.70
29 AUG 2016
66.60
66.40 66.20
66
65.80
65.60
65.40
65.20
65
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
29 AUG 2016
68.10
67.80
67.50
67.20
66.90
66.60
66.30
66
65.70
EURINR
29 AUG 2016
76.40
76.10
75.80
75.50
75.20
74.90
74.60
74.30
74
GBPINR
29 AUG 2016
89.70
89.40
89.10
88.80
88.50
88.20
87.90
87.40
87.10
JPYINR
29 AUG 2016
66.90
66.60
66.30
66
65.70
65.40
65.10
66.80
66.50
WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY GBPINE SEP ABOVE 88.90 TGT 89.60 SL 88.20 BUY EURINR SEP ABOVE 75.15 TGT 75.65 SL 74.64
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
SYOREFIDR
20-OCT-2016
SYBEANIDR
20-OCT-2016
RMSEED
20-OCT-2016
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
666
658
654
650
646
642
634
626
3443
3380
3317
3285
3254
3222
3191
3128
3065
4945
4865
4785
4735
4705
4655
4625
4545
4465
JEERAUNJHA
20-OCT-2016 18542 18292
18042
17898
17792 17648 17542 17292
17042
GUARSEED10
20-OCT-2016
4003
3913
3823
3768
3733
3678
3643
3553
3463
TMC
20-OCT-2016
7949
7653
7357
7177
7061
6881
6765
6469
6173
DATE
674
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-OCT-2016
694
679
664
657
649
642
634
629
604
SYBEANIDR
20-OCT-2016
3638
3502
3366
3309
3230
3173
3094
2958
2822
RMSEED
20-OCT-2016
5225
5040
4855
4770
4670
4585
4485
4300
4115
JEERAUNJHA
20-OCT-2016 19435 18850
18265
18010
17680 17425 17095 16510
15925
GUARSEED10
20-OCT-2016
4335
4133
3911
3812
3689
3590
3467
3245
3023
TMC
20-OCT-2016
8525
8013
7501
7249
6989
6737
6477
5965
5453
DATE
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 18000 TGT 18500 SL 17500 SELL GUARSEED OCT BELOW 3648 TGT 3544 SL 3751
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Gold fell on Monday as pressure from speculation over a potential increase in U.S. interest rates this month offset the metal's safe-haven appeal amid widespread weakness across other assets. Spot gold was down almost 0.3 percent at $ 1,324.15 an ounce by 1400 GMT, with U.S. gold futures GC cv1 losing 0.5 percent to $ 1,328. A chorus of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept expectations alive for a September rate increase despite a recent spate of disappointing economic data. Stocks and bonds fell to levels last seen immediately after Britain's Brexit vote on concerns that global central banks' commitment to super-low interest rates and asset purchase programmes may be waning. After Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke on Friday, the chances of a rate rise in September were seen at 30 percent, up from 24 percent before his comments. seems as if the risk-off sentiment has turned over the past couple of hours. The market might be putting more emphasis on the hawkish comments from the Fed," said Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen. Gold, often seen as a safehaven investment in times of geopolitical and financial uncertainty, benefited from the risk-averse sentiment in early trade but later dipped into the red. "We think the Federal Reserve will indeed move in September, mainly on account of the timing of the upcoming U.S. election, coupled with the fact that, on aggregate, the economy is not as weak as most of the recent numbers suggest," Fed governor Lael Brainard is scheduled to give a talk in Chicago later on Monday, a day before the central bank's communications blackout takes effect in the build-up to next week's policy meeting. There is chance for some more volatility ahead with Brainard's speech, Hedge funds and money managers increased their net long position in COMEX gold contracts to a nine-week high in the week to Sept. 6 and also raised a bullish stance in silver, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Gold prices inched higher for the first time in five sessions on Tuesday, as investors continued to weigh up prospects for future U.S. interest rate increases following the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $ 2.25, or 0.17%, to trade at $ 1,327.85 by 8:50AM ET. A day earlier, futures shed $ 8.90, or 0.67%. In a speech on Monday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard warned against raising interest rates too quickly. The comments came after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Friday that low interest rates are increasing the chance of overheating the U.S. economy. Markets are pricing in a 15% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 20-21 meeting, For December, odds stood at around 55%. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Also on the Comex, copper futures gained 0.6 cents, or 0.29%, to $ 2.106 a pound, as investors digested the latest round of Chinese economic data. China's
factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in August, easing concerns over the health of the world's second-largest economy. Industrial production rose at an annualized rate of 6.3% in August, beating expectations for a 6.1% increase, the General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday. Retail sales also handily beat expectations, with growth accelerating to 10.6% from 10.2% a month earlier, while fixed asset investment, which tracks construction activity, rose 8.1% last month, above forecasts for an increase of 8.0%. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. � ENERGY The global oil market will show a surplus into next year, as an abrupt deterioration in demand growth meets rising supply, pushing world inventories to yet another record high and confounding the previous expectations of leading energy agencies. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday forecast global supply would outpace demand well into next year, marking an about-face from its assessment just one month ago that the market would essentially show no surplus for the remainder of this year. Similarly, a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday showed the world's largest producers expect their Non-OPEC rivals to pump even faster, suggesting a hefty surplus may be on the cards in 2017. "Our forecast in this month's report suggests that this supply-demand dynamic may not change significantly in the coming months. As a result, supply will continue to outpace demand at least through the first half of next year," the IEA said. Global refinery runs are expected to grow at their slowest pace in at least a decade this year, which will curb appetite for crude oil, just as inventories across the OECD rose to a fresh record high of 3.111 billion barrels, the report said. "With our more pessimistic outlook for the second half of 2016 refining activity and revisions to crude supply, the expected draws in the third quarter of 2016 are now lower, while the build in the fourth quarter of 2016 is higher," the IEA said. Global demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than the group initially predicted. The IEA left its forecast for demand growth for 2017 unchanged from its prediction in June at 1.2 million barrels per day, but cut its forecast for 2016 consumption growth to 1.3 million bpd, from 1.4 million. "The key demand change in this report is the erosion of 300,000 bpd from the third quarter of 2016's global demand estimate, and the resulting removal of 100,000 bpd from the net 2016 forecast," the IEA said. Brent crude oil futures fell by around 2 percent on Tuesday to $ 47.30 a barrel, still showing a 70percent gain so far this year, but about half where it was two years ago. Despite oil's collapse and resulting investment cuts, global oil production is still expanding, although nowhere near the breakneck pace of 2015. High-cost OPEC producers have been hit particularly hard. However, the loss has been more than made up for by OPEC. Saudi Arabia and Iran have each raised
oil output by over 1 million barrels a day since late 2014 when OPEC shifted strategy to defend market share rather than price. OPEC forecast demand for its oil will average 32.48 million bpd in 2017, down 530,000 bpd from its previous forecast. "It seems the situation has deteriorated strongly in the eyes of OPEC as well as the IEA,".Near-record OPEC output, and higher supply from outside, could make it harder for OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and rival Russia to come up with steps to support the market. Producers are expected to meet in Algeria on the sidelines of the Sept. 26-28 International Energy Forum.
Oil fell on Tuesday after a series of predictions on demand growth that pointed to the global overhang of unused inventories persisting for much longer than previously expected. The International Energy Agency said that a sharp slowdown in global oil demand growth, coupled with ballooning inventories and rising supply, means the crude market will be oversupplied at least through the first six months of 2017. That view marked a change from the agency's forecast a month ago, when it forecast supply and demand broadly in balance over the rest of this year and expected inventories to fall swiftly. The IEA's latest comments follow a surprisingly bearish outlook from OPEC on Monday. Brent crude was down 47 cents at $ 47.85 a barrel by 1340 GMT, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declining by 70 cents to $ 45.59. "It seems the situation has deteriorated strongly in the eyes of OPEC as well as the IEA," said Commerzbank head of commodities strategy Eugen Weinberg. "I wouldn't be surprised to see this price weakness continue for a while, because that was not on the cards, in our opinion." Upbeat Chinese data on industrial output growth for August failed to lift oil prices as the crude market remained in profit-taking mode, traders said. China's industrial output grew the fastest in five months as demand for products from coal to cars rebounded thanks to higher government spending and a year-long credit and property boom. Speculators in U.S. and Brent crude futures took an axe to their long positions in the latest week, cutting the combined net speculative length in the two contracts by 80 million barrels, according to PVM Oil Associates. "Given the bearish fundamental backdrop, yesterday’s strength is not expected to be long-lived. Maybe this is what we are already seeing this morning with the two main crude oil futures contracts trading ... lower," PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said in a note. "As for today and tomorrow, all eyes will be on the weekly statistics on U.S. oil stocks to see whether last week’s huge fall in crude oil inventories was just a one-off." U.S. crude inventory data is due on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Reuters poll forecast that U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are likely to have risen last week after marking the largest plunge since 1999 in the previous week. U.S. natural gas futures declined on Tuesday, turning lower after approaching a two-month high amid forecasts for warmer than normal temperatures across most parts of the continental U.S. in the days ahead. Natural gas for delivery in October on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to an intraday peak of $2.942 per million British thermal units, just below a two-month high of $2.944. It was last at
$2.897 by 10:39AM ET , down 1.8 cents, or 0.62%. A day earlier, gas futures surged 11.8 cents, or 4.22%, after updated weather forecasting models pointed to very warm late summer temperatures into next week, boosting demand expectations for the cooling fuel. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning. Meanwhile, market players looked ahead to weekly supply data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build of approximately 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 9. That compares with a gain of 36 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 74 billion a year earlier and a five-year average build of 69 billion cubic feet. Total gas in storage currently stands at 3.437 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 5.7% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 8.9% above the five-year average for this time of year. Despite the recent rally, gains are likely to remain limited as traders react to the reality that higher summer demand for the commodity is coming to an end. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning. But with autumn due to start on September 22, power burns to feed air conditioning demand have probably peaked for now, market analysts said. Unless intense late-summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles could possibly test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October. � COPPER Amid a better trend at the spot market on rising demand from battery makers, lead rose 0.64 per cent to Rs 118.60 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions. Furthermore, a firming trend in base metals overseas supported the upside in metal prices.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in May was up 75 paise, or 0.64 per cent, at Rs 118.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 46 lots. Zinc futures traded higher by 0.32 per cent to Rs 127.15 per kg today as traders crated speculative positions, tracking a firm trend overseas and uptick in demand in the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in current month traded higher by 40 paise, or 0.32 per cent to Rs 127.15 per kg in a business turnover of 2,159 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in May edged up by 30 paise, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 128.10 per kg in 84 lots Nickel prices were up by Rs 8.60 to Rs 627.90 per kg in futures market today as speculators raised their bets amid a firming trend overseas and domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in May was trading notably higher by Rs 8.60, or 1.39 per cent, to Rs 627.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 152 lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 8, or 1.30 per cent, to trade at Rs 621.20 per kg in 4,199 lots.
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ GLOBAL UPDATE India’s output of pulses during the ongoing kharif season is likely to reach an all-time high of 8.22 million tonnes, almost 50 per cent more than last year. This could also mean a record crop in 2016-17. The Centre’s target is 14.41 mt in the coming rabi season. If this happens, it would push the total harvest to over 22 mt. The highest till date was 19.25 mt, in 2013-14. Output fell to 16.47 mt in 201516 and 17.15 mt in 2014-15, due to drought. This year’s harvest is expected on the back on a good southwest monsoon and higher price realisation by farmers. Pulses apart, overall farm production in this kharif is expected to be a bumper one. Government announces MSP of Kharif Crops to be applicable from 1st September, 2016 The Centre has decided that the Minimum Support Prices for Kharif Crops grown in 2016 will be applicable from 1st September, 2016. The decision of the Government has been conveyed to the Agriculture Secretaries of all States and Union Territories by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. The decision has been taken as harvested crops sown in Kharif may reach the market even before October. The Government announces MSPs in each season for major agricultural commodities to ensure remunerative prices to the farmers for their produce. The MSP for Kharif Crops namely Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi, Tur , Moong, Urad, Groundnut-in-shell, Soyabean, Sunflower Seed, Nigersed, Sesamum and Cotton was announced on 1st June, 2016 before the sowing season to enable farmers to take a decision for sowing a particular crop. Centre to set up body to manage pulses buffer stock The government will soon invite tenders from state-run and private companies to set up an entity to manage the proposed buffer stock of pulses, and for their storage and disposal, a senior official said on Saturday. This follows the recommendation of a panel headed by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, which backed the setting up of a new institution as a public private partnership to compete with and complement existing institutions to procure, stock and dispose pulses. The government has already decided to create a two-million-tonne buffer stock as authorities move to tackle the problem of shortages andprice spikes of the essential protein item. The PMO had also recommended the ministry to explore the possibility of releasing stock through central agencies such as Kendriya Bhandar and Safal. Sources said both FCI and Nafed had also supported the need to set up a separate entity to deal with pulses. Experts said procurement of pulses could also be outsourced to private agencies. “Overall, the monsoon has been favourable to farmers this year. We have received good rains and distribution was also good,” Union agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said. The earlier high for total output was 265.04 mt in the 2013-14 crop year. This fell in 2014-15 and 2015-16 to 252.02 mt
and 253.23 mt, respectively. The government's target for 2016-17 is 270.10 mt, on hope of bountiful rain. It has pegged paddy output at 108.5 mt, wheat at 96.5 mt and pulses at 24.5 mt. Paddy, oilseeds and coarse cereals have all seen a rise in sowing area in this kharif, said the minister. Kharif sowing started with onset of the southwest monsoon from June and harvesting will begin from next month. The minister said he was urging states to promote pulses in the rabi season, starting October, too. Unless farmers are assured of getting the announced Minimum Support Price, they will not be encouraged to plant lentils in rabi. “It is for this reason, the government has started pulses procurement,” he said. ICE cotton bounced back from a near one percent drop initially to settle higher for the third straight session on Thursday as forecasts for rain in the cotton-belt areas of the United States offset poor export sales data. Weekly export sales report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed net upland sales totaled 136,400 running bales of cotton for the week ended Sept. 8, compared with 344,500 running bales in the prior week. "Today, sales were poor, shipments were also poor and the surprise was Pakistan and India bought almost no cotton," said Rogers Varner, president of Varner Brokerage in Cleveland, Mississippi. Net sales of Pima cotton for 2016/2017 for India fell to 5,900 running bales last week from 8,100 running bales in the week earlier, while those for Pakistan declined to 900 running bales from 2,100 running bales of the natural fiber during the same period. forecast for rain in the cotton belt in the United States were supportive of prices, Varner added. The second month December cotton contract on ICE Futures U.S. CTc2 settled up 0.19 cent, or 0.28 percent, at 67.72 cents per lb. It traded within a range of 66.82 and 67.95 cents a lb. The dollar index .DXY was down 0.05 percent. The Thomson Reuters Core Commodity CRB Index .TRJCRB , which tracks 19 commodities, was up 0.66 percent. Total futures market volume fell by 5,648 to 10,449 lots. Data showed total open interest gained 906 to 231,339 contracts in the previous session. ICE cotton up as rain forecasts offset weak export sales data. In last burst, rains to scale up over central, south India over next fort night It may be too early to write an epitaph about this year’s monsoon. Updated forecasts suggest that its unfolding tail may carry a sting during the last two weeks. Feeding the hopes of weather watchers is raging typhoon ‘Malakas’ in the north-west Pacific off Taiwan, which is seen building a pipeline of moisture into the Bay of Bengal. The net result has been a rain-driving low-pressure area that crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast and brought heavy rain to the neighbourhood over the past couple of days. This ‘low’ has weakened over Telangana, but outlook by various weather models suggests that at least two more such ‘lows’ may form in the Bay before the season draws to a close. Obviously, they are expected to bring heavy rain over the entire central and western India, as well as parts of the southern peninsula. Since the rainfall normals for September are low, these spells should help cover the current deficit of 5 per cent, if not turn in a small surplus. An extended range weather forecast by the Met Department, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture all seemed to
lend support tothis scenario. Sugar futures soar to 4-year highs, ending market stalemate Raw sugar futures broke out of months of range-bound trading, climbing nearly 4% to near-four-year highs, supported by growing worries, encouraged by Brazil concerns, over a supply squeeze. New York raw sugar futures for October delivery surged to 21.36 cents a pound at one stage, the highest for a spot contract since October 2012, before easing back to 21.18 cents a pound in late morning deal, up 3.4% on the day. The gains came as Rabobank increased its forecast for next season's sugar deficit, the extent to which demand outstrips supply. However, worries over Brazilian production, stoked by data on Thursday from industry group Unica were also seen as fuelling the jump. Technical factors related to the forthcoming expiry of the October contract at the end of this month were also seen as influencing the market, besides chart signals. Trading Margin on Sugar Futures to Rise Above 50% Market regulator Sebi could direct agri bourse NCDEX to further raise trading margin on sugar to weed out speculative activity amid the recent hardening of prices, a person aware of the development told ET. The front month futures contract shot up 6.5% from . 3,665 a quintal in eight sesa low to ` sions through September 14. “Margins could be raised next week itself,“ the person told ET on Friday. “A ban on sugar futures is not on the cards for now,“ he added.He did not add the quantum of likely margin increment. Centre-South Brazil Aug 1631 sugar output down 11% on year Mills in Centre-South region of Brazil produced 2.54 mln tn sugar in the second fortnight of August, down nearly 11% from a year ago, said the country's sugarcane industry association, known by its Portuguese acronym UNICA. Mills in the region, which account for more than 90% of Brazil's total sugar output, crushed 38.31 mln tn of sugarcane during Aug 16-31, down 19.3% on year, UNICA said in a report released late Thursday. The sugar season in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the sweetener, runs from April to March. In the season so far, mills in the region have crushed 393.66 mln tn cane, up 6.4% on year and produced 22.42 mln tn sugar, up from 19.15 mln tn a year ago, it said. Of the total sugarcane crushed so far, around 45.66% was used for sugar production while 54.34% was used to make ethanol, the industry body said. Centre-South Brazil has so far produced 16.46 mln ltr ethanol, slightly down from 16.48 mln ltr a year ago. The futures contract of raw sugar on the Inter Continental Exchange rose following reports of a fall insugar production in Brazil.
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