Commodity research report 22 january 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD. Monday, January 22, 2018

MCX Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Aluminum

31-Jan-18

141

142

144.9

139

141.75

Copper

28-Feb-18

453.05

457.9

462.45

449.8

450.45

-0.57%

0.13%

-89.02%

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

3897

4020

4129

4018

4042

3.72%

-9.49%

845.49%

Gold

5-Feb-18

29547

29600

29850

29550

29755

0.70%

16.96%

-31.48%

Lead

31-Jan-18

161.6

162.4

167.95

161.85

165.4

2.35%

19.89%

15.66%

Natural Gas

25-Jan-18

204

202.2

210

195.4

203.5

-0.25%

-30.84%

-31.97%

Nickel

31-Jan-18

803.7

814

822.3

782.4

807.8

0.51%

5.90%

10.85%

Silver

5-Mar-18

39063

39325

39693

38573

38969

-0.24%

-1.15%

-33.63%

Zinc

31-Jan-18

217.6

217.9

221.25

216.8

219

0.64%

-1.32%

8.75%

Commodity

Change in Change in OI Change in Price (in %) (in %) Vol- ume (in %) 0.53% 22.95% 11.94%

NCDEX Market Wrap-up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

Change in OI (in %)

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

4121

4128

4147

3976

4051

-1.70%

-79.83%

Chana

20-Mar-18

3817

382

3857

3651

3677

-3.67%

-78.44%

51.48%

Dhaniya

20-Apr-18

6087

6027

6080

5616

5704

-6.29%

-15.63%

29.27%

Cottonseed Oil Cake

20-Feb-18

1790

1786

1800

1740

1748.5

-2.32%

-79.26%

-27.06%

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

9465

9571

9600

8974

9219

-2.60%

0.07%

33.56%

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

4354

4398

4422

4198

4276.5

-1.78%

0.87%

27.48%

Jeera

20-Mar-18

16860

16885

17190

16485

16560

-1.78%

-26.08%

35.26%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1022

1013

1019

987

1003.5

-1.81%

4.53%

-2.42%

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4066

4069

4125

3985

4036

-0.74%

-14.30%

32.36%

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

740.05

739.7

744.8

732.6

734.25

-0.78%

-5.61%

12.37%

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

3233

3255

3381

3255

3365

4.08%

3.22%

16.66%

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7620

7610

7666

7260

7330

-3.81%

5.07%

51.43%

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1657.4

1624

1643.9

1516

1543.3

-6.88%

-3.52%

-30.17%

Commodity

Change in Vol- ume (in %) 42.12%

Currency Market Wrap-up Change in Price (in %)

Currency Pair

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

USDINR

29-Jan-18

63.725

63.6025

64.2625

63.4325

63.8925

0.26%

GBPINR

29-Jan-18

86.835

87.3475

88.9075

87.1625

88.8175

2.28%

EURINR

29-Jan-18

77.98

77.5750

79.0000

77.4450

78.385

0.52%

JPYINR

29-Jan-18

57.4025

57.4500

58.0175

57.3075

57.7175

0.55%

Continued……

International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in %)

LME

2221

2228

2269.75

2170.5

2220.75

-0.01%

Copper

COMEX

3.2

3.221

3.291

3.179

3.18

-0.63%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

64.3

64.42

64.89

62.84

63.57

-1.14%

Gold

COMEX

1334.9

1337.7

1344.9

1324.4

1331.1

-0.28%

Lead

LME

2540

2636.5

2630.75

2530.75

2586.75

1.84%

NYMEX

3.2

3.124

3.288

3.039

3.184

-0.50%

Nickel

LME

12662.5

12725

12977.5

12192.5

12687.5

0.20%

Silver

COMEX

17.24

17.445

16.82

17.025

-1.25%

Zinc

LME

3390.5

3403.75

3444.25

3356

3407

0.49%

Commodity Aluminum

Natural Gas

LME Inventory Update Commodity

Closing (As on 05th Jan 18) in Tonnes

Closing (As on 29th Dec 17) in Tonnes

% Change

Copper

205475

201650

1.90%

Nickel

362532

368292

-1.56%

Lead

139650

142575

-2.05%

Zinc

180025

180175

-0.08%

Aluminium

1090875

1088325

0.23%

Continued…….

Upcoming Economic Events Calender Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Tuesday, January 23, 2018 16:30

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) Wednesday, January 24, 2018

3:05

USD

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

15:00

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)

15:00

GBP

Claimant Count Change (Dec)

15:00

GBP

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

20:15

USD

Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

20:15

USD

Market Composite PMI

20:15

USD

Services PMI (Jan)

20:30

USD

20:30

-5.121M 2.50%

2.50%

3.2K

5.9K

4.30%

55.1 54.1

53.7

Existing Home Sales (Dec)

5.70M

5.81M

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

-2.10%

5.60%

21:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.536M

-6.861M

21:00

USD

Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

-4.184M

Thursday, January 25, 2018 15:00

GBP

Gross Mortgage Approvals

39.5K

19:00

USD

Goods Trade Balance (Dec)

-70.00B

19:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

239K

220K

20:30

USD

New Home Sales (Dec)

679K

733K

20:30

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

-7.90%

17.50%

0.875

USD

Natural Gas Storage

-183B

Friday, January 26, 2018 15:00

GBP

GDP (YoY) (Q4)

1.40%

1.70%

15:00

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

0.40%

19:00

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)

0.60%

-0.10%

19:00

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)

0.80%

1.30%

19:00

USD

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

3.00%

3.20%

19:00

USD

GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)

2.30%

2.10%

23:30

USD

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

29-Jan-18

65.5000

64.7000

64.2500

63.8500

63.4500

63.0000

62.2000

GBPINR

29-Jan-18

91.8000

90.0500

89.4500

88.3000

87.7000

86.5500

84.8000

EURINR

29-Jan-18

81.4000

79.8500

79.1500

78.3000

77.6000

76.7500

75.2000

JPYINR

29-Jan-18

59.1000

58.4000

58.1000

57.7000

57.4000

57.0000

56.3000

MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

31-Jan-18

153.70

147.80

144.80

141.90

138.90

136.00

130.10

Copper

28-Feb-18

479.55

466.9

458.7

454.25

446.05

441.60

428.95

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4285

4174

4108

4063

3997

3952

3841

Gold

5-Feb-18

30318

30018

29887

29718

29587

29418

29118

Lead

31-Jan-18

177.25

171.15

168.25

165.05

162.15

158.95

152.85

Natural Gas

25-Jan-18

232.15

217.55

210.5

202.95

195.9

188.35

173.75

Nickel

31-Jan-18

884

844

826

804

786

764

724

Silver

5-Mar-18

41318

40198

39584

39078

38464

37958

36838

Zinc

31-Jan-18

227.9

223.45

221.2

219

216.75

214.55

210.10

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

4400

4229

4140

4058

3969

3887

3716

Chana

20-Mar-18

4140

3934

3806

3728

3600

3522

3316

Dhaniya

20-Apr-18

6728

6264

5984

5800

5520

5336

4872

Cotton Seed Oilcake

20-Feb-18

1883

1823

1786

1763

1726

1703

1643

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

10516

9890

9555

9264

8929

8638

8012

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

4747

4523

4400

4299

4176

4075

3851

Jeera

20-Mar-18

18155

17450

17005

16745

16300

16040

15335

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1067

1035

1019

1003

987

971

939

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4329

4189

4112

4049

3972

3909

3769

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

762

749

742

737

730

725

713

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

3586

3460

3412

3334

3286

3208

3082

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

8231

7825

7577

7419

7171

7013

6607

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1824

1696

1620

1568

1492

1440

1312

BULLION Silver futures rose for the first time in four sessions even as the dollar index gained ground, following a basket of data from the US the world's largest economy while Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles spoke earlier today. As of 06:24 GMT, silver futures due on March 15 rose 0.38% to $17.025 an ounce from the opening of $16.960, while the dollar index rose 0.14% to 90.63 from the opening of 90.50. Friday is the deadline of the latest budget deal between Republicans and Democrats and in case the Senate failed to pass the bill the government will be shut down temporarily.

BASE METALS Copper futures tilted lower in American trade as the dollar index settled higher ahead of later data from the US the world's largest economy. The Lead is in perfect up trend .Currently Lead is in strong up trend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend. Cautious point is buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term Lead is in hold long position.

ENERGY Oil prices fell nearly one percent in American trade away from 37-month highs heading for the first weekly loss since mid-December as the dollar index gained modest ground following earlier data from the US the world's largest energy consumer. OPEC released its monthly report earlier where it detailed an increase in output by 42 thousand bpd in December with more than quarter of this coming from Saudi Arabia while global output rose 0.4 million bpd last month.OPEC said that global demand growth in 2017 was revised to show an increase of 40 thousand bpd while maintaining their forecasts for 2018 at 98.51 million bpd and increases projections for growth of supplies outside OPEC by 160 thousand bpd in 2018 to 1.15 million bpd mostly from the US and Canada.

SPICES NCDEX Mar Jeera continue to trade lower on Thursday falls by 0.4% on fresh selling initiated by market participants pressured by the start of new season arrivals coupled with weak physical demand at higher prices. The arrivals are expected to pick up in next 15-20 days. Jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season.

OIL & OILSEEDS Refined Soy Oil Feb contract falls for the third consecutive day on Thursday mainly on profit booking by market participants tracking steady physical demand. However, the prices have been trading near strong resistance near 740 levels. This level is breached last in the year 2013. Mustard Apr futures fell for the second consecutive day on Wednesday due to fresh selling by the market participants tracking weak demand in physical market. Market is still expecting for some demand side fundamentals as downside looks limited. Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP due to reports good sowing progress.

GUAR COMPLEX Guar complex futures traded higher last week. Good demand from stockiest and guar gum producers and reduced supply at major trading centers helped prices to trade on positive bias during the week. However, guar gum futures settled marginally down on profit booking and closed the day at Rs.8931/quintal,Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arrivals of guar were reported at 30800 bags yesterday at major trading centers across Rajasthan.

OTHERS Chana Mar futures closed lower for the second consecutive day amid technical selling initiated by the market participants tracking weak spot prices amid higher acreage in the country. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 7.9% on year at 105.6 lakh ha as on last week. MCX Jan Cotton closed higher on Thursday supported by good demand from the mills and traders. However, the prices have corrected by more than Rs. 200 during the end of the session.

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

GOLD COMEX Gold price shows calm negative trading to test the EMA50 again, and as long as the price is below 1350,our bullish overview will remain valid for the upcoming period, reminding you that our next main target is represented by testing the previously recorded top at 1357.53.The Gold MCX is in perfect up trend .Currently Gold is in strong up trend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal.Support for the Gold is 29400. Immediate resistance for Gold is 29950.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 29450

TARGET

29350

STOP LOSS

29525

CRUDE OIL From the last couple of trading weeks Crude oil trading in range and recently market is facing important resistance level at 4100.Currently Crude oil is showing some down move and trend is strong momentum is also showing strength and supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Caution note buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term we can see some selling pressure in oil. Near term support level at 4000 while market can face the resistance of 4080

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 4000

TARGET

3910

STOP LOSS

4070

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

RMSEED The castor seed is in long- term bull phase cautious point is buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The Castor seed is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing buy signal for long term Castor seed is in hold long position. Immediate support for Castor seed new is 3880.Resistance for the Castor seed is 4170.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

ACTION

Details Buy

ENTRY PRICE

ABOVE 4170

TARGET

4270

STOP LOSS

4095

SOYREFINED Soy bean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on reports of improved oil mills demand and slowing arrivals. Higher incentives for oil meal export, improved estimates for meal exports also supporting soy bean prices. NCDEX Feb Soy bean closed higher for third consecutive day on Thursday supported by good physical demand and lower supplies. Futures Prices have touched 16 months high while spot prices have jumped more than 10% in last one month. Soy bean arrivals during first 15 days in January were down 41% to 2.18 lakh tonnes on year as per Market data. Moreover, reports on lower inventories compared to last year also support prices.

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

Sell

ENTRY PRICE

Below 3255

TARGET

STOP LOSS

3150 3334

Calls of e Week (FOREX)

EURINR Last week EURINR Jan Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 79.0000, but till the end of week, some of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 78.3850 with the weekly gain of 1.40% on weekly basis. It’s still consolidating above the 50Days & 200Days SMA with the positive RSI and for this week we can expect further upside movement in it above the level of 78.2875 till the level of 78.8825. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 779475

WEEKLY STRATEGY Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

ABOVE 78.2875

TARGET

78.8825

STOP LOSS

77. 9475

GBPINR Last week GBPINR Jan futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 88.9075 during the week and closed 88.8175 with the overall gain of 2.83% gain on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect profit booking in it from the higher levels and below the level of 88.5850, it can test the level of 88.0125 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 88.9125.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 88.5850

TARGET

88.0125

STOP LOSS

88.9125

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DISCLOSURE (प्रकटीकयण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी कंऩननमां अनस ु ंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कंऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के जायीकताा के साथ जड ु ी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनऩ ु ारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कंऩनी औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रे ड नहीं कयें गे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को केवर याम के रूऩ भें दे खें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पैसरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कंऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकंऩनी के खखराप कोई भक ु दभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX: (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ): The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड द्वाया ननमव ु त हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी

ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩनू ता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफधं धत नहीं होगा।

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(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company, (फ) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोगी मा उनर्के कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम र्कंऩनी र्की प्रनतबनू तमों भें एर्क प्रनतशत मा उससे अचधर्क र्के वास्तववर्क / पामदे भंद स्वालभत्व नह ं हैं |

(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance; (स) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसर्के सहमोचगमों र्को अनुसंधान रयऩोटट र्के प्रर्काशन र्के सभम मा सावटजननर्क रूऩ से उऩस्स्थत होने र्के सभम र्कोई अन्म बौनतर्क संघषट नह ं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION: ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण: High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।

ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनू ता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

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(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

(द) हाई ब्रो भार्केट अनस ु ंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड ववषम र्कंऩनी र्के लरए र्कबी बी ववऩणन (भार्केट भेकर्कंग) गनतववचध भें शालभर नह ं यहा है ।