✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIU 30-NOV-2016 122
121
120
120
119
119
118
117
116
30-NOV-2016 420
414
408
405
402
399
396
390
384
CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3507
3410
3313
3256
3216
3159
3119
3022
2925
GOLD
05-DEC-2016 29512 29193 28874 28736 28555 28417 28236
27917
27598
LEAD
30-NOV-2016 206
191
176
170
161
155
146
131
116
NATURAL 27-DEC-2015 231
224
217
214
210
207
203
196
189
841
817
808
793
784
769
745
721 38043
M COPPER
EXPIRY
GAS NICKEL
30-NOV-2016 865
SILVER
05-DEC-2016 42609 41848 41087 40793 40326 40032 39565
38804
30-NOV-2016 229
169
ZINC
217
205
201
193
189
181
157
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
140
133
126
123
119
116
112
105
98
502
466
430
417
394
381
358
322
286
19-DEC-2016 3831
3634
3437
3317
3240
3120
3043
2846
2649
GOLD
05-DEC-2016 31285 30434 29583 29091 28732 28240 27881 27030
26179
LEAD
30-NOV-2016
219
199
179
172
159
152
139
119
99
NATURAL
27-DEC-2015
263
244
225
218
206
199
187
168
149
GAS NICKEL
30-NOV-2016
949
894
839
819
784
764
729
674
619
SILVER
05-DEC-2016 44183 42950 41717 41107 40484 39847 39251 38018
36785
30-NOV-2016
117
ALUMINIUM 30-NOV-2016 COPPER CRUDE OIL
ZINC
30-NOV-2016
261
237
213
R1
205
PP
S1
189
181
S2
165
S3
141
S4
Monday, 28 November 2016
WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30 SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL ALUMINIUM 115.60 TGT 113.60 SL 117.20 - NOT EXECUTED SELL CRUDEOIL DEC BELOW 3160 TGT 3080 SL 3220 - NOT EXECUTED ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
USDINR
28-DEC-
69.30 69.20 69.10
EURINR
2016 28-DEC-
74.20
GBPINR
2016 28-DEC-
87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30
JPYINR
2016 28-DEC-
74
R2
R1 69
PP
S1
S2
S3
68.90 68.80 68.70 68.60
73.80 73.60 73.40 73.20
68.50
72.80
72.60
85.70 85.40 85.10
84.80
86.90 86.70 86.50 86.30 86.10 85.90 85.70 85.50
85.30
86
73
S4
2016 ✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1 69
PP
S1
S2
S3
68.80 68.60 68.40 68.20
S4
USDINR
28-DEC-
69.60 69.40 69.20
EURINR
2016 28-DEC-
74.40 74.10 73.90 73.60 73.30
72.70 72.40
72.10
GBPINR
2016 28-DEC-
87.80 87.30 86.80 86.30 85.80 85.30 84.80 84.30
83.80
JPYINR
2016 28-DEC-
87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30
84.80
86
73
85.70 85.40 85.10
2016 WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95 SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 68.10 TGT 67.30 SL 68.70 - NOT EXECUTED SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 84.10 TGT 83.10 SL 85.05 - NOT EXECUTED
68
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
DATE 20-DEC-
726
720
714
712
708
706
702
696
690
SYBEANIDR
2016 20-DEC-
3190 3161 3132
3117 3103 3088 3074 3045
3016
RMSEED
2016 20-DEC-
4792 4747 4702
4673 4657 4628 4612 4567
4522
JEERAUNJH
2016 20-DEC-
20090 19595 19100 18935 18605 18440 18110 17615
17120
A GUARSEED10
2016 20-DEC-
3507 3450 3393
3360 3336 3303 3279 3222
3165
TMC
2016 20-DEC-
7829 7669 7509
7427 7349 7267 7189 7029
6869
2016 ✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
DATE 20-DEC-
789
760
731
720
702
691
673
644
615
SYBEANIDR
2016 20-DEC-
3421 3313 3205
3154 3097 3046 2989 2881
2773
RMSEED
2016 20-DEC-
506 4930 4799
4722 4668 4591 4537 4406
4275
JEERAUNJH
2016 1 20-DEC- 22530 21120 19710 19240 18300 17830 16890 15480
14070
A GUARSEED10
2016 20-DEC-
3853 3666 3479
3404 3292 3217 3105 2918
2731
TMC
2016 20-DEC-
8447 8055 7663
7505 7271 7113 6879 6487
6095
2016 WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402 SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3294 TGT 3203 SL 3353 - SL BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17100 - TGT
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ GLOBAL UPDATE Gold prices closed at the lowest level in nine months on Friday as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continued to cloud the demand outlook for the precious metal. Gold for December delivery settled down 0.53% at $1,183.00 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since February 5. Safe haven demand for gold has been hit since the U.S. presidential election amid expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The precious metal has also been weighed down by bets that a rate hike by the Fed in December is a near certainty. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 95.4% of traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver settled at $16.47, paring the week’s losses to 0.48%. Also on the Comex, copper for December delivery settled at $2.46 a pound. Gold prices eased on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels since February as the dollar paused after surging to fresh 14-year peaks. Gold for December delivery was trading at $1,187.55 a troy ounce by 0946 GMT, after earlier falling as low as $1,179.75, a level not seen since February 8. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 101.67, not far from highs of 102.11, the strongest level since early April 2003. The dollar rallied after upbeat U.S. data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes cemented expectations for a rate hike next month. The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting said an interest-rate increase was possible “relatively soon” if data indicated that the economy is improving. Some Fed officials explicitly called for a rate hike in December, the minutes showed. Separately, data showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose at the fastest rate in a year in October and another report showed that a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence rose strongly in November. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are now at 100%. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies when the dollar strengthens. Prices of the yellow metal had already come under pressure this month amid the view that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Trade was expected remain quiet on Thursday; with
U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery were at $16.34 a troy ounce, while copper futures traded at $2.65 a pound. Copper prices have risen around 20% so far this month on expectations of rising demand from China and an increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. when Donald Trump becomes president. China and the U.S. are the top two consumers of the industrial metal. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.47 percent to 891.57 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday. Holdings have declined over 5 percent so far this month. Gold prices have dropped nearly 12 percent from a high of $1,337.40 per ounce, hit on Nov. 9, when Donald Trump was announced U.S. president-elect. "Since no one particularly anticipated the move post the Trump win, the position cutting on the long-side has been swift on the downside," said Amit Kumar Gupta, research head at Adroit Financial Services, adding that the market has piled into the U.S dollar and equities. "Technically, $1,172 will act as support, below which the down move could be aggressive." Spot silver XAG= fell 0.6 percent to $16.26 an ounce. Platinum XPT= dropped over 1.3 percent to $918.40, while palladium XPD= edged up 0.2 percent to $734.40. Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency. Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. election initially saw a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold but the trend quickly reversed as the dollar .DXY and bond yields surged on expectations of higher U.S. spending and interest rates.Spot gold XAU= was down 0.14 percent at $1,211.97 an ounce by 2:18 p.m. EST (1918 GMT). The previous day, bullion advanced 0.4 percent to snap three sessions of losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.1 percent at $1,211.20 per ounce. Safe haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen JPY= are usually the casualties of a flight to risk where the dollar and stocks perform well. "We are still in the Donald Trump honeymoon period which has taken the equity market quite a bit higher. The market is looking for global growth to come to the rescue," said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.
� ENERGY Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets. U.S. crude oil settled down $1.97 or 4.11% at $49.55 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the largest one day decline since September 23. U.S crude still ended the week up 0.81% after trading in a range between $45.77 and $49.20 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $48.24 a barrel, down $1.76 cents or 3.59%. Trading activity remained thin because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an
agreement next week to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Most analysts believe that some form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market. "An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per barrel," In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to developments surrounding Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. Markets will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. Tuesday, November 29 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Oil prices rose on Wednesday, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. U.S. crude oil was up 25 cents or 0.71% at $48.3 a barrel at 10.35 ET. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $49.34 a barrel, up 25 cents or 0.53%. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, the EIA said. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile build of 0.67 million barrels after a build of 5.27 million barrels in the previous week. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by2.31 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.64 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 0.32 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decrease of 0.35 million. Meanwhile, traders continued to ponder a planned output cut by major producers, aimed at reducing a global supply glut and supporting prices. OPEC is to meet on November 30 to decide on strategy for the first half of next year. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states along with non-OPEC member Russia to implement coordinated production cuts. But doubts remain over the outlook for a deal, amid uncertainty over how any agreement would be implemented. OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day at a meeting in September. But production by OPEC members hit a record high in October of 33.64 million barrels per day. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Iran has ramped up production in a bid to regain market share after international sanctions against it were lifted last January. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned PEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets on markets. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.90 at
0209 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $47.94 per barrel, down 2 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much. Thanksgiving Holiday today has thinned traders interest ... but the OPEC result next Wednesday is the only game in town for energy traders," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerages in Singapore. Most analysts believe that some form of a production cut will be agreed, though it is uncertain whether this will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years. Beyond OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $49.01 at 0711 GMT, up 6 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $48.07 per barrel, up 11 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much. analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years, resulting in a record three years of falling investments into the sector, according to the International Energy Agency. expect OPEC will reach an agreement at next week's biannual meeting in Vienna... If OPEC does successfully reach an agreement, prices are likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients on Thursday. But it added that "investor positioning data and price action suggest the market remains unconvinced," and that net long positions, which would profit from rising prices, were still at lows not seen since oil hit $27 per barrel earlier this year. IEA Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in Tokyo on Thursday that even if production is cut, prices could soon come back under downward pressure again as the OPEC-led cut would enable U.S. shale oil drillers to massively increase their own output. OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other
currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. There were also signs of ongoing oversupply, with China's gasoline exports soaring over 100 percent compared with this time last year, to 870,000 tonnes, as its refiners churn out more petrol than even China's huge consumer base can handle.
✍ BASE METAL Copper prices have risen around 22% so far this month on hopes that infrastructure plans in top consumers China and the U.S. will bolster demand for the industrial metal. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November as well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. Last week, LME Copper prices traded higher by 8.4 percent to close at $5879/tonne as expectations of increased infrastructure spending in the US after commitment by President elect Trump in his victory speech widely expected to spur growth and inflation continued to boost demand outlook. Besides, persistently falling LME stocks, which are down by 26 percent in November itself, is also supportive. This month, Copper prices have been a beneficiary of robust manufacturing activity in the major consumer nations, namely the US, China and EU. Apart from that, persistent weakening in the Yuan is adding to the strength in the prices. MCX copper prices. Open interest in non-farm commodities on the Multi Commodity Exchange has declined sharply in the last three weeks following uncertainty over global economic indicators. Traders have started squaring off their positions and churning their portfolios for better profit. This is happening despite the rising prices of base metals and falling bullion prices. The open interest for all gold contracts declined to 8,160 lots on Wednesday from 9,267 lots on November 8. Open interest for all silver contracts fell to 15,389 lots on Wednesday from 16,163 lots on November 8. “More than global factors, demonetisation affected trading sentiment. Those with cash balances are busy adjusting them and those who do not have cash are abstaining from fresh positions. Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a steady decline in stocks at warehouses. The rally was fuelled by optimism over robust demand from the US on expectation of increased infrastructure spending under president-elect Donald Trump. Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure over the next 10 years, which has fuelled demand expectation. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, prices of the commodity jumped from Rs 311 a kg on October 17 to Rs 368.70 a kg. However, market experts believe the rally is now overdone and there could be some correction by mid-December. In the runup to the US presidential election, copper prices rose in anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory. In fact,
copper prices surpassed the crucial $5000 per tonne psychological mark on the London Metal Exchange on November 7, a day prior to the election. But the most surprising thing was that the metal moved 7 per cent higher in the international markets in a matter of just three days on November 8-10 despite the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. However, on MCX, copper prices surged 10 per cent to Rs 373.60 on November 11 from Rs 339.75 on November 8. Copper prices fell by 1.11 per cent to Rs 365.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market weighed on prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month contracts declined by Rs 4.10, or 1.11 per cent, to Rs 365.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,050 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in far-month February next month traded lower by Rs 3.80, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs 371.65 per kg in 21 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of a weak trend as most industrial metals fell globally as speculators in China took their foot off the pedal and the stronger dollar deterred investors from buying commodities, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � SOYABEAN Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of firm international markets on biofuel usage in US and domestically good demand of soybean for crushing. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the month of December. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 1.96% down to settle at Rs. 3,123 per quintal. Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) soybean output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat. CBOT soybean was closed higher on Friday, supported by strongerthan-expected weekly export sales data. The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, above a range of trade expectations for 1.2 million to 1.5 million tonnes. Moreover, record EPA biofuel mandate EPA raised quotas of renewable fuel mixed into U.S. gasoline and diesel to a record 19.28 billion gallons, including 15 billion gallons of ethanol.
✍ REFINED SOYA OIL Refined soy oil futures continue its uptrend last week on tracking firm international prices on anticipation of squeezing supplies from the US due to record requirement biofuel use for next year. Moreover, anticipation of further increase in tariff value by government of India for 1st half of December too supports prices at higher levels. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry contract closed 3.75% higher last week to settle at Rs. 710.3/10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the government. Recently, NCDEX has withdrawn additional margin of 2.5% on both long and short side on all running contracts of soy oil. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India’s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt – an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (NovOct).
✍ SUGAR Sugar Futures fall last week due to anticipation of good physical supplies form the sugar mills as the crushing season is in full swing in main sugarcane growing states. Moreover, there is subdued demand in the physical market as stockists are not willing to buy due to cash crunch situation. The most-active December sugar contract closed 2.50% down last week to settle at 3,428 per quintal. As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87 lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. Sugar production has increased marginally on account of early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka As per ISMA’s first media release, the carryover stock as on 1st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17 SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS, Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar recovery from standing cane. These mills are now expected to start crushing from 5th November, 2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills are expected to start this week. ICE raw sugar futures rose on Friday, boosted by a pick-up in physical demand after recent declines helped to tighten nearby supplies. Moreover, the weak Brazilian real often pressures raw sugar prices as it encourages producer and fund selling. Moreover, speculators reduced their record bullish in raw sugar contracts in the week to Nov. 15, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. As per,
the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into balance in 2017-18, ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low level" in the current season. Industry group Unica said sugar production was 2.05 mt, near the top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million.
✍ RAPE/ MUSTERED SEED Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to boost in winter demand and effect on increase in MSP. However, good sowing progress limit the uptrend. The Dec’16 contract ended 0.43% higher last week to settle at Rs. 4,645/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, all-India acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi season was nearly 58.1 lh as on Nov 24 up 17.8% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not affected much, as sowing is nearing an end, and farmers had already bought the seeds. Till Nov 18, Rajasthan, planted 24.6 lakh ha, up 24% from a year ago similarly acreage increase in Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in 9.82 lh, up 15.4% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 5.21 lh, up 23.2% sown a year ago. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. As per the latest USDA monthly report, global rapeseed production for 2016/17 is forecast higher at 67.81 mt in Nov. compared to 67.6 mt in October and down 3.4% from 2015/16.
✍ JEERA Jeera futures closed higher last week due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export enquiries as sowing season commenced in Gujarat and Rajasthan. NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 8.37% higher last week to close at Rs 18,770 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing completed in around 99,100 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,400 hectares, as on 21st Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 21 November 2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is 743 MT. Last year stocks were about 6,426 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to same period last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.
✍ TURMERIC Turmeric futures closed higher last week due to good demand and dwindling supplies in the physical market. Moreover, surge in spot market too support the prices at futures market just a month before the harvest season. Turmeric Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 3.79% higher last week to settle at Rs 7,346 per quintal. Currently the supplies are for medium and poor quality during the rest of the season till new crop arrived which may keep the prices sideways to higher. The reports of good production from new season crops may pressurize prices as the harvesting begins in the next month. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year.
✍ KAPAS Cotton complex traded lower during the last week due to increase in demand and ease in arrivals of seed cotton in the physical market. Though there is is good demand from ginners and textile mills the prices have eased due to heavy arrivals. Last week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed 2.99% down while MCX Nov’16 cotton closed 0.83% down. Industry is estimating 355 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season 2016- 17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government’s first estimate of 321.2 lakh bales. As per CAB, India's cotton output is seen at 351 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% from 338 lakh bales a year ago due to good monsoon and minimum pest infestation. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at 105.6 lh against 116 lh last year. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at 32.5 lakh bales as on 12 November, 2016. In October, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan together account for at 5.82 lb while Gujarat and Maharashtra added 7.3 lb. Madhya Pradesh too seen about 1.82 lb arrivals. In South India, about 3.36 lb arrivals have been recorded. According to USDA, production in India is forecast at 26.5 million bales (5.77 mt), up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India’s yield is expected to offset a 10-percent reduction in cotton area this season. ICE Cotton futures slipped to their lowest for a week on Friday as British firm Cotton Outlook
on Friday raised its forecast for global cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. Traders expects that U.S. export sales for the week ending Nov. 17 are likely to be one of the lowest in recent times. However, USDA showed net upland sales of 254,800 running bales for the week Nov 11-17 were up 19% from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week average for the 2016/17 crop. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China, where much of the excess stocks are held, decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese government sold over two million tons from its official reserves from May through September 2016.
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