Commodity research report 08 may 2018 ways2capital

Page 1

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.


Market Wrap-Up MCX Market Wrap-Up

Aluminium

31-May-18

149.10

148.50

159.30

147.35

158.65

6.41%

% Change in Open Interest 28.13%

Copper

29-Jun-18

454.00

453.75

461.10

448.95

457.45

0.76%

-28.69%

-43.48%

Crude Oil

21-May-18

4547

4516

4678

4472

4668

2.66%

29.62%

46.95%

Gold

05-Jun-18

31211

31170

31170

30865

31114

-0.31%

-6.34%

26.30%

Lead

31-May-18

157.00

156.70

157.65

150.65

155.55

-0.92%

-15.03%

13.80%

Natural Gas 25-May-18

186.00

185.20

188.90

181.10

182.30

-1.99%

19.13%

-5.95%

Nickel

31-May-18

925.90

920.20

946.70

909.30

934.10

0.89%

-39.63%

-31.80%

Silver

05-Jul-18

39670

39602

39870

38886

39734

0.16%

-9.37%

-40.92%

Zinc

31-May-18

209.75

209.35

212.85

198.70

205.35

-2.10%

-29.08%

23.40%

Commodity

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Close

% Change in Price

% Change in Volume -15.06%

NCDEX Market Wrap-Up % Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

-3.02%

-0.44%

28.24%

3558

1.37%

9.66%

-21.95%

4683

-2.34%

2.11%

-0.47%

7.64%

-12.81%

36.41%

-6.12%

3.63%

27.44%

-5.76%

-14.28%

5.77%

-0.16%

-4.11%

43.46%

3783.00 3843.00 3727.00 3834.00

2.43%

-1.48%

27.14%

762.50

762.00

758.70

-0.50%

-1.01%

134.34%

18-May-18

3622.00

3672.00 3700.00 3607.00 3657.00

0.97%

-7.11%

-5.70%

Turmeric

18-May-18

6926

9.04%

31.64%

113.38%

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1272.40

2.19%

-19.26%

130.60%

Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

18-May-18

Chana

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Close

4010

4020

4050

3841

3889

18-May-18

3510

3535

3594

3460

Dhaniya

18-May-18

4795

4805

4855

4640

Cottonseed Oil

18-May-18

1185.00

Guargum5

18-May-18

8723

Guarseed10

18-May-18

3960.00

Jeera

18-May-18

15670

RMseed

18-May-18

3743.00

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

Soyabean

1206.00 1288.00 1166.00 1275.50 8640

8700

8030

8189

3922.00 3922.00 3659.00 3732.00 15525

6988

15980

764.90

7552

15525

745.60

6976

15645

7552

1271.90 1310.00 1266.00 1300.30

% Change in Price

Currency Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Close

Change in Price (in%)

USDINR

29-May-18

66.8950

66.8825

67.1000

66.7150

67.0675

0.26%

GBPINR

29-May-18

92.2475

91.4900

91.4900

90.4500

91.0550

-1.29%

JPYINR

29-May-18

61.2750

61.1500

61.6200

60.9050

61.6000

0.53%

EURINR

29-May-18

81.0150

80.6400

80.6400

80.0500

80.3850

-0.78%

Currency Pair

Continued…….

2

Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

08/05/2018


Market Wrap-Up International Market Wrap-up Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

LME

2228.25

2227.00

2366.00

Copper

COMEX

3.046

3.051

Crude Oil

NYMEX

68.10

Gold

COMEX

Lead

Commodity

Close

% Change in Price

2121.25

2345.75

5.27%

3.094

2.998

3.066

0.66%

68.15

69.97

66.85

69.72

2.38%

1320.30

1309.60

1313.80

1303.40

1312.70

-0.58%

LME

2347.00

2345.50

2364.25

2245.00

2314.50

-1.38%

NYMEX

2.771

2.763

2.820

2.700

2.711

-2.17%

Nickel

LME

13865.00

13827.50

14195.00

13557.50

13967.50

0.74%

Silver

COMEX

16.406

16.475

16.530

16.000

16.434

0.17%

Zinc

LME

3132.50

3139.00

3189.50

2970.50

3061.25

-2.27%

Aluminium

Natural Gas

3

Low

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08/05/2018


Inventory Updates LME Inventory Commodity

Closing In Tonnes (As on 04th may 2018)

Closing In Tonnes (As on 27th April 2018)

% Change in Price

Copper

316400

342250

-7.55%

Nickel

315696

309594

1.97%

Lead

131650

129800

1.43%

Zinc

236775

228150

3.78%

Aluminium

1319300

1362750

-3.19%

Continued…….

4

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08/05/2018


Inventory Updates

5

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08/05/2018


Market Next Week Economic Events Calendar Time

Curreny

Event

Forecast

Previous

Tuesday, May 8, 2018 Tentative

CNY

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

6.30%

-2.70%

Tentative

CNY

Imports (YoY) (Apr)

16.00%

14.40%

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance (USD) (Apr)

27.50B

-4.98B

19:30

USD

JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)

6.020M

6.052M

Wednesday, May 9, 2018 18:00

USD

Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.20%

0.30%

18:00

USD

PPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.20%

0.30%

20:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

4.257M

6.218M

Thursday, May 10, 2018 14:00

GBP

Trade Balance (Mar)

-11.40B

-10.20B

16:30

GBP

BoE Inflation Report

-

-

18:00

USD

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.20%

0.20%

18:00

USD

Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)

2.20%

2.10%

18:00

USD

CPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.30%

-0.10%

18:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

218K

211K

23:30

USD

Federal Budget Balance (Apr)

185.0B

-209.0B

Friday, May 11, 2018 18:00

USD

Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr)

0.30%

0.30%

18:00

USD

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

-

-

18:00

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr)

0.50%

0.00%

19:30

USD

Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)

88

88.4

19:30

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)

98.4

98.8

22:30

USD

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

-

834

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

USDINR

29-May-18

67.7000

67.3500

67.2000

66.9500

66.8000

66.5500

66.2000

GBPINR

29-May-18

93.1000

92.0500

91.5500

91.0000

90.5000

89.9500

88.9000

JPYINR

29-May-18

62.8500

62.1000

61.9000

61.4000

61.2000

60.7000

59.9500

EURINR

29-May-18

81.5500

80.9500

80.6500

80.3500

80.0500

79.7500

79.1500 Continued…….

6

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08/05/2018


Market Next Week MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Aluminium

31-May-18

179.00

167.05

162.85

155.10

150.90

143.15

131.20

Copper

29-Jun-18

480.15

468

462.75

455.85

450.6

443.70

431.55

Crude Oil

21-May-18

5018

4812

4740

4606

4534

4400

4194

Gold

05-Jun-18

31660

31355

31234

31050

30929

30745

30440

Lead

31-May-18

168.60

161.60

158.55

154.60

151.55

147.60

140.60

Natural Gas

25-May-18

199.70

191.90

187.10

184.10

179.30

176.30

168.50

Nickel

31-May-18

1005

967

951

930

913

893

855

Silver

04-May-18

41465

40481

40107

39497

39123

38513

37529

Zinc

31-May-18

233.95

219.80

212.60

205.65

198.45

191.50

177.35

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Castor Seed

18-May-18

4345

4136

4012

3927

3803

3718

3509

Chana

18-May-18

3805

3671

3615

3537

3481

3403

3269

Dhaniya

18-May-18

5156

4941

4812

4726

4597

4511

4296

Cottonseed Oil Cake

18-May-18

1487

1365

1320

1243

1198

1121

999

Guargum5

18-May-18

9646

8976

8583

8306

7913

7636

6966

Guarseed10

18-May-18

4297

4034

3883

3771

3620

3508

3245

Jeera

18-May-18

16627

16172

15908

15717

15453

15262

14807

RMseed

18-May-18

4033

3917

3876

3801

3760

3685

3569

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

795

776

767

756

748

737

718

Soyabean

18-May-18

3841

3748

3702

3655

3609

3562

3469

Turmeric

18-May-18

8512

7936

7744

7360

7168

6784

6208

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1380

1336

1318

1292

1274

1248

1204

7

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08/05/2018


MCX Fundamentals BULLION Earlier US data showed the unemployment rate fell to late 2000 lows at 3.9%, as analysts expected 4% while average hourly earnings slowed down to 0.1% from 0.2%. Bulls got interrupted while climbing the cliff and stepped back last week with negative returns. Momentum got stalled as prices broke 10 Day EMA which has been a near term support for the counter. However it seems a correction and may continue for a while but intermediate trend is positive and prices can bounce after retest of key support at Rs.30850. To resume the upside prices need to break above Rs.31430 mark that may lead them towards next supply zone at Rs.31700 level

BASE METALS

Along with zinc nickel also participated in the retreat after participating in the rally and lost around 5.8 per cent at MCX. Lead was away from the last week volatility created by sanctions concern on Rusal by the US For the week it gained more than 1 per cent at MCX. Copper also lost more than half of its previous week gain for the last week it lost around 2.25 per cent at MCX.

ENERGY After a strong rally for two consecutive weeks counter paused for the week to take a breath. On weekly charts prices traded with marginal gains of 0.35% at Rs.4547 and formed a doji candlestick pattern. Pattern suggests that the bulls in current rally of up trend are now losing steam and fresh sellers are ready to step in. RSI on daily charts is trading close to overbought zone of 73 which indicates buying pressure in the counter which may push it to next support of Rs.4350. Trend on daily charts natural gas remains positive as prices form higher high higher low pattern. After the recent decline prices are now trading close to daily swing support of Rs.184. 8

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08/05/2018


NCDEX Fundamentals SPICES Sideways trend was noted for Jeer last week as lack of strong trading activities prevented strong recovery despite falling arrivals. Good monsoon reports amidst pre-monsoon showers too kept upside limited. Moderate arrivals amidst lack of strong demand kept trend down for the counter. Rates fired up for Turmeric as strong demand on export and domestic front supported prices with market sources mentioning present prices to be on the lower side. Normal Monsoon reports are likely to remain favorable for the

OIL & OILSEEDS A moderately firm trend persisted for Mentha even as prices faced immediate Resistance near the 1380 mark. Reports of rising demand at these lower levels supported prices. However good crop sowing reports limited the up trend. For the current session May soy bean is likely to trade with moderate upside and may find difficulty in sustaining above 3750-3775 levels. On the other hand strong support will be seen around 3590-3600.

GUAR COMPLEX Good monsoon reports and pre monsoon showers in many parts of India kept pressure on market sentiments for Guar last week. Prices however could find immediate psychological support near the 8000 mark. Rising crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee are supporting factors on the export front from a long term point of view. Short term negativity is however created by the weather factor which remains more crucial in coming weeks.

OTHERS Trend remained sideways for cotton last week. However firmness in International markets could lend strong support to the prices at these lower levels this week. Market had been supported earlier from strength in International markets amidst lower crop reports from India. For the current session May RM seed will trade with strong tone in case the contract fails to trade below 3770. On the other hand strong resistance will be seen between 3880 and 3870levels. 9

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08/05/2018


Calls of the Week (MCX) COPPER From last couple of trading weeks market is trading in range. On weekly chart, a bearish candle has formed after an unsuccessful attempt at breaking upside resistance of Rs.470 mark in the June series. However, counter witnessed selling pressure after reaching 12-week peak but trading above key support at Rs.452 mark that can assist prices to recover. However, a break below the same can exert pressure on prices that can lead to next support level of Rs.440 mark. One can make position below the level of 457 for the target of 447 with SL of 463.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action Entry Level

DETAILS Sell Below 457

Target

447

SL

463

NICKEL After a strong rally for two consecutive weeks, counter paused for the week to take a breath. On weekly charts, prices traded with marginal gains of 0.89% at 934.10 and formed bullis candlestick pattern. Pattern suggests that the bulls in current rally of uptrend are still strong and we can see the positive movement in coming session. RSI on daily charts is trading in positive zone which indicates buying pressure in the counter, which may support it to next level of Rs.980. As of now short term trend on four hourly and hourly charts remains bullish.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Level

10

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DETAILS

Sell

Belolw 946.70

Target

980

SL

930 08/05/2018


Calls of the Week (NCDEX) DHANIYA Last week Dhaniya Jun Futures started the week on negative note and made a low of 4702. However it witnessed positive movement on Wednesday but overall closed in negative at 4746 with the loss of 2.34% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect further downside movement in due to trend line resistance on higher levels & formation of bearish flag pattern. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4700, then it can test the level of 4555 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 4802

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action Entry Range

DETAILS Sell Below 4700

Target

4555

SL

4802

GUARSEED Last week Guarseed10 Jun Futures started the week on negative note and made a low of 3659 and closed at 3732 with overall marginal loss of 5.76% on weekly basis. And continuously making lower highs and lower lows indicating bearish trend in upcoming session. Technically for this week, we can expect further downside movement in it due to support level breakout & formation of bearish candlestick patterns on the higher levels. For this week, if it breaks the level of 3790, then it can test the level of 3655 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 3855.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

11

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DETAILS

Sell

Below 3790

Target

3655

SL

3855

08/05/2018


Calls of the Week (FOREX) GBPINR Last week GBPINR May Futures started the week on negative note but on the last day of the week, we saw slight short covering in it from the lower levels. It closed at 91.0550 with the overall loss of 1.29% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect further short covering in it from the lower levels due to formation of bullish candlestick pattern on the lower levels on daily chart.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

BUy

Above 91.2650

Target

91.8650

SL

90.895

JBPYINR Last week JPYINR May Futures started the week on negative note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 61.6000 with the overall gain of 0.53% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and Moving Averages and for this week, we can expect good upside movement in it.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action

Entry Range

12

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DETAILS Buy

Above 61.8000

Target

62.2900

SL

61.4900

08/05/2018


Disclaimer LEGAL DISCLAIMER ( कानूनी अस्वीकरण) : This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. यह दस्तावेज़ Ways2Capital (हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसध ं ान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड का एक भाग) द्वारा तैयार ककया गया है | यहां पर दी गई जानकारी, नवश्लेषण और अनुमान Ways2Capital इकिटी / कमोनडटी अनुसध ं ान के मूलयांकन पर आधाररत हैं और नवश्वसनीय स्रोतों से प्राप्त की गई है | यह दस्तावेज़ के वल इनछित प्राप्तकता​ा के उपयोग के नलए ही है |

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Any investment in Equity/commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer. इकिटी / कमोनडटी बाजार में कोई भी ननवेश जोनखम के अधीन होता है, कं पनी इन सुझावों पर ककए गए ककसी भी नुकसान के नलए उत्तरदायी नहीं होगी | यह स्तर भनवष्य के कीमतों की गनत का संकेत नहीं देते है| वेबसाइट के माध्यम से ककसी भी ब्राउजज़ग का अथा है अस्वीकरण की स्वीकृ नत।

DISCLOSURE ( प्रकटीकरण) : High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी कं पननयां अनुसंधान ररपोटा में शानमल कं पननयों के साथ कारोबार नहीं करती हैं और न ही ककसी भी तरह के उत्पादों / प्रनतभूनतयों के जारीकता​ा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो यह सुनननित करता है कक नहतों के नलए कोई वास्तनवक या संभानवत संघषा नहीं है | ननयामक ननकाय के अनुपालन को सुनननित करने के नलए हमने यह तय ककया है कक कं पनी और उसके कोई भी प्रनतनननध बाज़ार में ट्रेड नहीं करेंगे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को यह सलाह दी जाती है कक वे ररपोटा में दी गई जानकारी को के वल राय के रूप में देखें और ननवेश के नलए स्वयं िंै सला करें | ग्राहकों को वेबसाइट पर प्रकानशत सेवाओं के ननयमों और शतों को पढ़ने और समझने की भी सलाह दी जाती है | कं पनी के ननगमन के बाद ननयामक ननकाय द्वाराकं पनी के नखलािं कोई मुकदमा (यानचका) दायर नहीं ककया गया है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX ( प्रकटीकरण पररनशष्ट ) : The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this re- port herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. ररपोटा नवश्लेषकों द्वारा तैयार की गयी है जो द्वारा हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड द्वारा ननयुक्त हैं | इस ररपोटा में व्यक्त सभी नवचार कं पनी के बारे में व्यनक्तगत नवचारों को दशा​ाता है और कं पननयों और उनकी प्रनतभूनतयां और क्षनतपूर्तत (मुआवजे) का कोई नहस्सा, या इस शोध ररपोटा में नननहत नवशेष सुझावों या नवचारों से प्रत्यक्ष या अप्रत्यक्ष रूप से संबंनधत नहीं होगा।

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (नहतों के संघषा के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ): (a) (अ) (b)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest; हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी में कोई नवत्तीय रुनच नहीं है और न ही इस तरह की नवत्तीय नहत की प्रकृ नत है|

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,

(ब)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों में एक प्रनतशत या उससे अनधक के वास्तनवक / िंायदेमंद स्वानमत्व नहीं हैं |

(c)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोनगयों को अनुसंधान ररपोटा के प्रकाशन के समय या सावाजननक रूप से उपनस्थत होने के समय कोई अन्य भौनतक संघषा नहीं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( क्षनतपूर्तत के संदभा में प्रकटीकरण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड की पॉनलसी अपने नवश्लेषकों, पेशेवरों को नवश्लेषक के क्षेत्र में ककसी भी कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों के स्वामी से नवश्लेषकों को ररपोटा करने से रोकती है। नवश्लेषक क्षनतपूर्तत : नवश्लेषक हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड के वेतन आधाररत स्थायी कमाचारी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ) : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (अ)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नपिले 12 महीनों में नवषय कं पनी से कोई मुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककया है |

(b)

The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

(ब)

अनुसंधान ररपोटा के नवतरण की नतनथ से पूवा बारह महीनों के दौरान नवषय कं पनी अब या कभी भी ग्राहक नहीं रही है।

(c )

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नवषय कं पनी के अनधकारी, ननदेशक या कमाचारी के रूप में कभी भी काम

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08/05/2018


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