Commodity research report 15 may 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Market Wrap-Up MCX Market Wrap-Up Commodity

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

% Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

Aluminium

31-May-18

158.65

159.50

161.55

152.85

153.55

-3.21%

-21.63%

-26.00%

Copper

29-Jun-18

457.45

458.60

466.70

449.30

465.00

1.65%

41.89%

7.35%

Crude Oil

21-May-18

4668

4680

4842

4560

4793

2.68%

-17.30%

-27.49%

Gold

05-Jun-18

31114

31150

31570

31078

31518

1.30%

8.46%

12.05%

Lead

31-May-18

155.55

156.30

158.80

153.95

158.60

1.96%

43.38%

0.82%

Natural Gas

25-May-18

182.30

183.50

190.80

181.80

189.80

4.11%

16.33%

3.26%

Nickel

31-May-18

934.10

932.50

949.90

921.80

947.50

1.43%

-0.42%

-21.19%

Silver

05-Jul-18

39094

39866

40710

39530

40541

3.70%

3.74%

19.03%

Zinc

31-May-18

205.35

206.00

209.90

204.65

208.20

1.39%

20.78%

-39.37%

NCDEX Market Wrap-Up Commodity

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

% Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

Castor Seed

20-Jun-18

3941

3960

4128

3960

4089

3.76%

9.87%

-53.07%

Chana

20-Jun-18

3573

3580

3628

3540

3573

0.00%

1.48%

-1.95%

Dhaniya

20-Jun-18

4746

4750

4920

4712

4819

1.54%

-88.63%

12.61%

20-Jun-18

1259.00

2.98%

-14.57%

-27.42%

Guargum5

20-Jun-18

8309

1.38%

-7.57%

-64.51%

Guarseed10

20-Jun-18

3792.00

0.94%

-22.35%

-52.98%

Jeera

20-Jun-18

15555

15585

16155

15480

15895

2.19%

-13.06%

-12.21%

RMseed

20-Jun-18

3879

3899

3948

3863

3919

1.03%

-1.05%

-53.44%

Ref Soya Oil

20-Jun-18

762.45

766.00

781.00

762.70

770.50

1.06%

-1.59%

-41.46%

Soyabean

20-Jun-18

3720

3718

3796

3685

3734

0.38%

-10.16%

31.32%

Turmeric

20-Jun-18

7620

7718

7770

7340

7400

-2.89%

-0.21%

-59.46%

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1300.30

2.53%

7.43%

1.47%

Cottonseed Oil Cake

1265.00 1347.50 8332

8510

3810.00 3868.00

1309.00 1405.00

1254.00 1296.50 8255

8424

3763.50 3827.50

1309.00 1333.20

Currency Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in%)

USDINR

29-May-18

67.0675

67.1925

67.6250

66.9500

67.4400

0.56%

GBPINR

29-May-18

91.0550

90.9625

91.7900

90.8100

91.5850

0.58%

JPYINR

29-May-18

61.6000

61.5375

61.8875

61.3200

61.7525

0.25%

EURINR

29-May-18

80.3850

80.4175

80.6425

79.8725

80.5775

0.24%

Currency Pair

Continued…….

15/05/2018

Market Wrap-Up International Market Wrap-up Commodity

Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

% Change in Price

Aluminium

LME

2345.75

2345.00

2374.25

2265.00

2272.50

-3.12%

Copper

COMEX

3.066

3.083

3.126

3.014

3.111

1.47%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

69.72

69.78

71.88

67.64

70.52

1.15%

Gold

COMEX

1312.70

1316.00

1326.30

1304.40

1318.20

0.42%

Lead

LME

2314.50

2320.50

2358.25

2282.00

2348.50

1.47%

NYMEX

2.711

2.715

2.820

2.696

2.817

3.91%

Nickel

LME

13967.50

13945.00

14127.50

13745.00

14042.50

0.54%

Silver

COMEX

16.434

16.560

16.865

16.335

16.680

1.50%

Zinc

LME

3061.25

3079.75

3117.00

3046.50

3087.50

0.86%

Natural Gas

15/05/2018

Inventory Updates LME Inventory Closing In Tonnes (As on 11th May 2018)

Closing In Tonnes (As on 04th May 2018)

% Change in Price

Copper

285075

316400

-9.90%

Nickel

312645

315696

-0.97%

Lead

131800

131650

0.11%

Zinc

234700

236775

-0.88%

Aluminium

1265175

1319300

-4.10%

Commodity

Continued…….

15/05/2018

Inventory Updates

15/05/2018

Market Next Week Economic Events Calendar Time

Curreny

Event

Forecast

Tuesday, May 15, 2018 7:30

CNY

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Apr)

7.40%

7.50%

7:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)

6.40%

6.00%

14:00

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)

0.027

0.028

14:00

GBP

Claimant Count Change (Apr)

13.3K

11.6K

14:00

GBP

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)

129.0K

55.0K

14:00

GBP

Unemployment Rate (Mar)

0.042

14:30

GBP

Inflation Report Hearings

17:30

USD

FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

18:00

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.50%

0.20%

18:00

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.40%

0.60%

19:30

USD

Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar)

0.20%

0.60%

22:30

USD

FOMC Member Williams Speaks 52.0B

49.0B

Wednesday, May 16, 2018 1:30

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar)

2:00

USD

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

13:30

USD

IEA Monthly Report

18:00

USD

Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)

18:00

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr)

-0.011

0.019

18:00

USD

Housing Starts (Apr)

1.324M

1.319M

18:45

USD

Industrial Production (YoY)

18:45

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)

20:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-1.850M 0.044

0.043 0.005

0.005

-0.719M

-2.197M

219K

211K

23.2

Thursday, May 17, 2018 18:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

18:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

18:00

USD

Philly Fed Employment (May)

21:30

GBP

BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks

23:00

USD

FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

27.1

Friday, May 18, 2018 18:45

USD

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

18:45

USD

FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

29-May-18

68.7000

68.0500

67.7500

67.3500

67.1000

66.7000

66.0000

GBPINR

29-May-18

93.3500

92.4000

92.0000

91.4000

91.0000

90.4000

89.4500

JPYINR

29-May-18

62.8000

62.2000

62.0000

61.6500

61.4000

61.1000

60.5000

EURINR

29-May-18

81.9000

81.1000

80.8500

80.3500

80.0500

79.6000

78.8000 Continued…….

15/05/2018

Market Next Week MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

31-May-18

173.40

164.70

Copper

29-Jun-18

495.15

Crude Oil

21-May-18

Gold

159.15

156.00

150.45

147.30

138.60

477.75

471.4

460.35

454

442.95

425.55

5296

5014

4903

4732

4621

4450

4168

05-Jun-18

32373

31881

31699

31389

31207

30897

30405

Lead

31-May-18

166.80

161.95

160.25

157.10

155.40

152.25

147.40

Natural Gas

25-May-18

205.45

196.45

193.10

187.45

184.10

178.45

169.45

Nickel

31-May-18

996

968

958

940

930

912

884

Silver

04-May-18

42620

41440

40991

40260

39811

39080

37900

Zinc

31-May-18

218.10

212.85

210.55

207.60

205.30

202.35

197.10

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

18-May-18

4345

4136

4012

3927

3803

3718

3509

Chana

18-May-18

3805

3671

3615

3537

3481

3403

3269

Dhaniya

18-May-18

5156

4941

4812

4726

4597

4511

4296

Cottonseed Oil Cake

18-May-18

1487

1365

1320

1243

1198

1121

999

Guargum5

18-May-18

9646

8976

8583

8306

7913

7636

6966

Guarseed10

18-May-18

4297

4034

3883

3771

3620

3508

3245

Jeera

18-May-18

16627

16172

15908

15717

15453

15262

14807

RMseed

18-May-18

4033

3917

3876

3801

3760

3685

3569

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

795

776

767

756

748

737

718

Soyabean

18-May-18

3841

3748

3702

3655

3609

3562

3469

Turmeric

18-May-18

8512

7936

7744

7360

7168

6784

6208

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1380

1336

1318

1292

1274

1248

1204

15/05/2018

MCX Fundamentals BULLION Gold prices managed to recover back from initial setbacks and settled near week high. Traders turned back their attention and rushed for buying as prices approached near key support level of Rs.30850.whereas a trigger above the same could lead them towards previous swing high of Rs.31620. On technical parameter RSI is inching higher on daily time frame that is seen supportive for prices. On the lower side Rs.31000 would be initial available support for the prices whereas Rs.30850 can be seen as a key base in near term. Looking at the chart structure we advise to buy gold on dips while considering mentioned levels.

BASE METALS

The London Metal Exchange three-month copper and aluminium price were down (-0.2%) and (-0.4%) respectively while the rest of its peers managed to eke out gains. At the time of writing LME lead outperformed with a strong gain of (+0.7%) followed by tin with (+0.3%) while nickel and zinc were almost unchanged.But with a total trading volume at 3,729 lots below the weekly average of 5,540 lots this suggests a very quiet market as metals prices consolidates ahead of the annual LME Asia Week gathering in Hong Kong.

ENERGY The energy counter traded with strong bullish sentiments rallying for the fourth consecutive week in a row. Uptrend on both daily and weekly charts is intact with fresh buyers entering at every dip. Biassed of the week ahead remains bullish as prices have given a breakout above Rs.4845/bbl and $71.86/bbl for Nymex crude.Natural gas futures rose nearly three in American trade to April 27 highs as the dollar index fell off December 22 highs following earlier data from China the world's largest energy importer and the US the biggest energy consumer including the EIA report that showed another inventory build up.

15/05/2018

NCDEX Fundamentals SPICES Jeer failed to sustain higher because of easing buying interest in spot markets. Good monsoon reports once again capped the upside. Slowing down of new crop arrivals from Gujarat / Rajasthan are supporting market sentiments. Rmseed Weekend profit taking kept the trend down and no bearish news was reported. Rising demand on export and domestic front will support prices in coming weeks. Normal Monsoon reports are likely to remain favourable for the crop sowing from June and that could limit the up trend.

OILSEEDS Mentha oil ended at 4% lower circuit as sellers participation improved. Rising demand on the export front amidst low arrivals had supported the market of late.The arrivals of the new crop in coming weeks could limit the uptrend. However supplies will start improving June onwards therefore futures are unlikely to sustain above 1400 mark as of now. It may be noted that the report was neutral to slightly bearish for soya oil. Soya oil is a strong competitor of palm oil and both bear a strong positive correlation with each other.In the current week palm oil outlook shall depend on production and export prospects which will be crucial in guiding soya oil prices to a great extent.

GUAR COMPLEX

Markets looks weak as of now as pre-monsoon showers in many parts of India continues putting pressure over traderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s mindset. However near term support will be seen from positive trend in crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee. Guar failed to sustain above 3840 for yet another session.

OTHERS Futures traded with positive tone yesterday but failed to hold higher amid limited spot buying interest ( against rising prices). The long term fundamentals for RM seed are most likely to support prices after every moderate dip in coming weeks.Cotton showed sideways to negative trend amid lack of bullish cues from overseas markets. The May contract will difficult to sustain above major resistance of 21000 in coming week. Fall in International markets are likely to pressurize prices in the short term. 9

15/05/2018

Calls of the Week (MCX) GOLD From last couple of trading weeks Gold market trading in range between the 31500 - 31000. Last week Gold started the week on positive note and contiune the same for the entire week. It closed at 31518 with the overall gain of 1.30% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it from the lower levels due to formation of bullish candlestick pattern on daily chart.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

DETAILS

Action Entry Range

Buy Above 31620

Target

31770

31565.

NATURAL GAS Last week Natural Gas started the week on negative note but found enough support of 180 and bounce back from lower level, we saw slight short covering in it from the lower levels. It closed at 189.80 with the overall loss of 4.11% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect that market can contuine its rally to the level of 200. For this week, if Natural Gas breaks the level of 191 then it can test the level of 205 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 18

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 191.00

Target

201.00

186.00

15/05/2018

Calls of the Week (NCDEX) RAMSEED Futures traded with positive tone yesterday but failed to hold higher amid limited spot buying interest ( against rising prices). The long term fundamentals for RM seed are most likely to support prices after every moderate dip in coming weeks. Moving forward we expect the downtrend to be limited with summer season demand likely to rise in coming weeks For this session June RM seed will trade with upward bias as long as stays comfortably above 3900. With prices still running lower, prevailing optimistic views regarding government not to allow prices to fall below the MSP level (for a longer duration) will be seen as a limiting factor for the downward trend.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action Entry Range

DETAILS Buy Above 3930

Target

4060

3859

SOYABEAN For the current session June soybean is likely to trade with a negative note and may find comfortable in sustaining near the level of 3700. On the other hand strong resistance will be seen around 3800. In coming week futures can show negative trend. Below the level of 3700 we can see next support level near the level of 3550 and then 3500. One can make sell position with stop loss of 3758.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action

Entry Range

DETAILS Sell

Below 3700

Target

3560

3758

15/05/2018

Calls of the Week (FOREX) USDINR Last week JPYINR May Futures started the week on negative note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 61.7525 with the overall gain of 0.25% on weekly basis. Technically its sustaining above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and Moving Averages and for this week, we can expect good upside movement in it.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

BUy

Above 67.6400

Target

68.0000

67.3400

JPYINR Last week JPYINR May Futures started the week on negative note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 61.7525 with the overall gain of 0.25% on weekly basis. Technically its sustaining above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and Moving Averages and for this week, we can expect good upside movement in it.

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 61.8000

Target

62.3000

61.5000

15/05/2018

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Any investment in Equity/commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer. इकिटी / कमोनडटी बाजार में कोई भी ननवेश जोनखम के अधीन होता है, कं पनी इन सुझावों पर ककए गए ककसी भी नुकसान के नलए उत्तरदायी नहीं होगी | यह स्तर भनवष्य के कीमतों की गनत का संकेत नहीं देते है| वेबसाइट के माध्यम से ककसी भी ब्राउजज़ग का अथा है अस्वीकरण की स्वीकृ नत।

DISCLOSURE ( प्रकटीकरण) : High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी कं पननयां अनुसंधान ररपोटा में शानमल कं पननयों के साथ कारोबार नहीं करती हैं और न ही ककसी भी तरह के उत्पादों / प्रनतभूनतयों के जारीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो यह सुनननित करता है कक नहतों के नलए कोई वास्तनवक या संभानवत संघषा नहीं है | ननयामक ननकाय के अनुपालन को सुनननित करने के नलए हमने यह तय ककया है कक कं पनी और उसके कोई भी प्रनतनननध बाज़ार में ट्रेड नहीं करेंगे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को यह सलाह दी जाती है कक वे ररपोटा में दी गई जानकारी को के वल राय के रूप में देखें और ननवेश के नलए स्वयं िंै सला करें | ग्राहकों को वेबसाइट पर प्रकानशत सेवाओं के ननयमों और शतों को पढ़ने और समझने की भी सलाह दी जाती है | कं पनी के ननगमन के बाद ननयामक ननकाय द्वाराकं पनी के नखलािं कोई मुकदमा (यानचका) दायर नहीं ककया गया है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX ( प्रकटीकरण पररनशष्ट ) : The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. ररपोटा नवश्लेषकों द्वारा तैयार की गयी है जो द्वारा हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड द्वारा ननयुक्त हैं | इस ररपोटा में व्यक्त सभी नवचार कं पनी के बारे में व्यनक्तगत नवचारों को दशााता है और कं पननयों और उनकी प्रनतभूनतयां और क्षनतपूर्तत (मुआवजे) का कोई नहस्सा, या इस शोध ररपोटा में नननहत नवशेष सुझावों या नवचारों से प्रत्यक्ष या अप्रत्यक्ष रूप से संबंनधत नहीं होगा।

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (नहतों के संघषा के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ): (a) (अ) (b)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest; हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी में कोई नवत्तीय रुनच नहीं है और न ही इस तरह की नवत्तीय नहत की प्रकृ नत है|

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,

(ब)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों में एक प्रनतशत या उससे अनधक के वास्तनवक / िंायदेमंद स्वानमत्व नहीं हैं |

(c)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोनगयों को अनुसंधान ररपोटा के प्रकाशन के समय या सावाजननक रूप से उपनस्थत होने के समय कोई अन्य भौनतक संघषा नहीं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( क्षनतपूर्तत के संदभा में प्रकटीकरण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड की पॉनलसी अपने नवश्लेषकों, पेशेवरों को नवश्लेषक के क्षेत्र में ककसी भी कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों के स्वामी से नवश्लेषकों को ररपोटा करने से रोकती है। नवश्लेषक क्षनतपूर्तत : नवश्लेषक हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड के वेतन आधाररत स्थायी कमाचारी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ) : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (अ)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नपिले 12 महीनों में नवषय कं पनी से कोई मुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककया है |

(b)

The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

(ब)

अनुसंधान ररपोटा के नवतरण की नतनथ से पूवा बारह महीनों के दौरान नवषय कं पनी अब या कभी भी ग्राहक नहीं रही है।

(c )

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नवषय कं पनी के अनधकारी, ननदेशक या कमाचारी के रूप में कभी भी काम

15/05/2018