Commodity research report 21 may 2018 ways2capital by Ways2Capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Market Wrap-Up MCX Market Wrap-Up % Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

0.81%

8.83%

7.74%

462.15

-0.61%

-17.09%

25.26%

4732

4855

1.29%

4.03%

-3.30%

31579

30851

31091

-1.35%

-16.02%

-14.42%

158.85

162.70

157.40

158.65

0.03%

2.08%

-6.61%

189.80

188.50

195.60

188.20

194.30

2.37%

-0.18%

0.27%

31-May-18

947.50

949.60

1010.00

949.60

995.70

5.09%

49.80%

91.33%

Silver

05-Jul-18

40541

40440

40531

39604

40195

-0.85%

-5.61%

-18.21%

Zinc

31-May-18

208.20

207.35

211.35

204.95

211.10

1.39%

25.21%

14.78%

Commodity

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Aluminium

31-May-18

153.55

153.70

159.90

153.15

154.80

Copper

29-Jun-18

465.00

467.80

458.70

Crude Oil

21-May-18

4793

4790

4899

Gold

05-Jun-18

31518

31450

Lead

31-May-18

158.60

Natural Gas

25-May-18

Nickel

% Change in Price

NCDEX Market Wrap-Up Previous Close

% Change in Open Interest

% Change in Volume

-1.66%

-0.05%

-50.66%

3587

0.39%

-7.32%

12.58%

4781

-0.79%

870.45%

41.76%

-1.31%

-3.91%

-35.85%

-1.44%

2.07%

-1.35%

0.27%

-1.57%

-16.67%

15755

-0.88%

4.54%

-12.15%

3906

3975

1.43%

-0.92%

-5.10%

776.00

764.30

773.75

0.42%

10.12%

-29.85%

3728

3829

3702

3776

1.12%

-7.53%

-59.17%

7400

7362

7450

7170

7244

-2.11%

-5.55%

7.78%

1333.20

1347.00

1348.00

-0.72%

3.31%

-15.26%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

Castor Seed

20-Jun-18

4089

4094

4107

3993

4021

Chana

20-Jun-18

3573

3585

3700

3568

Dhaniya

20-Jun-18

4819

4840

4914

4750

COCUDAKAL

20-Jun-18

1296.50

1291.00

1311.50

Guargum5

20-Jun-18

8424

8450

8625

Guarseed10

20-Jun-18

3827.50

3844.00

3947.00

Jeera

20-Jun-18

15895

15910

16240

15705

RMseed

20-Jun-18

3919

3930

3999

Ref Soya Oil

20-Jun-18

770.50

774.95

Soyabean

20-Jun-18

3734

Turmeric

20-Jun-18

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1261.00 1279.50 8266

8303

3792.50 3838.00

1266.30 1323.60

% Change in Price

Currency Market Wrap-Up Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Change in Price (in%)

USDINR

29-May-18

67.4400

67.3575

68.2975

67.3100

68.0775

0.95%

GBPINR

29-May-18

91.5850

91.5400

92.3550

91.3550

91.8350

0.27%

JPYINR

29-May-18

61.7525

61.6600

62.1200

61.1025

61.3475

-0.66%

EURINR

29-May-18

80.5775

80.6400

81.2375

79.9075

80.2425

-0.42%

Currency Pair

Continued…….

21/05/2018

Market Wrap-Up International Market Wrap-up Commodity

Exchange

Previous Close

Open

High

Aluminium

LME

2272.50

2279.00

2337.75

Copper

COMEX

3.095

3.075

Crude Oil

NYMEX

70.52

Gold

COMEX

Lead

% Change in Price

2247.00

2272.00

-0.02%

3.086

3.022

3.062

-1.07%

70.54

72.30

70.26

71.38

1.22%

1318.20

1319.90

1285.20

1291.70

-2.01%

LME

2348.50

2347.00

2401.25

2327.50

2335.75

-0.54%

NYMEX

2.806

2.825

2.870

2.780

2.837

1.10%

Nickel

LME

14042.50

14035.00

14872.50

14035.00

14632.50

4.20%

Silver

COMEX

16.680

16.650

16.165

16.465

-1.29%

Zinc

LME

3087.50

3088.00

3098.00

3036.50

3093.75

0.20%

Natural Gas

Low

21/05/2018

Inventory Updates LME Inventory Closing In Tonnes (As on 18th May 2018)

Closing In Tonnes (As on 11th May 2018)

% Change in Price

Copper

300200

285075

5.31%

Nickel

306054

312645

-2.11%

Lead

132025

131800

0.17%

Zinc

231625

234700

-1.31%

Aluminium

1249450

1265175

-1.24%

Commodity

LME Inventory vs Price Movement 6%

5.09%

Change in %

4% 3%

1.39%

1% 0% -1%

0.17%

-0.61% 5.31%

0.03%

-1.24% 0.81%

-1.31%

-2% -3%

-2.11% % Change LME Inventory

% Change in Price

Continued…….

21/05/2018

Inventory Updates

Crude Oil Inventory vs Price Analysis 3.3

4900

4799

4820

4800 4700

2 2.2 4485

4512 2.2

4600

4485

4500

4400

4354

-1

Closing Price

Chane in Inventory (in Million)

-1.4 4300 -1.1

-2

4200 -2.2

-3

Inventory Change

4100

Price

Natural Gas Inventory vs Price Analysis 106

100

189.1

-20

190

180 180.1 -19 175.7

-18

175

-36

170

-40 -60

165

Inventory Change

193.8

180.1

195

185

182.2

200

Price

21/05/2018

Closing Price

Change in Inventory (in Billion)

120

Market Next Week Economic Events Calendar Time

Curreny

Event

Forecast

Wednesday, May 23, 2018 14:00

GBP

CPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.50%

0.10%

14:00

GBP

CPI (YoY) (Apr)

2.50%

14:00

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)

0.01

-0.001

19:15

USD

Manufacturing PMI (May)

56.5

19:30

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)

-0.02

0.04

19:30

USD

New Home Sales (Apr)

679K

694K

20:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-0.763M

-1.404M

23:30

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday, May 24, 2018

13:45

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

14:00

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.40%

-0.50%

14:00

GBP

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

0.10%

1.10%

14:00

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.70%

-1.20%

14:00

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

0.10%

1.10%

14:30

GBP

Inflation Report Hearings

18:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

220K

222K

19:30

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.10%

19:30

USD

Existing Home Sales (Apr)

5.57M

5.60M

Friday, May 25, 2018 14:00

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

0.10%

14:00

GBP

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

1.20%

18:00

USD

Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)

-0.80%

18:00

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)

0.50%

-0.10%

18:00

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)

-1.40%

2.60%

19:30

USD

Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)

86.9

89.5

19:30

USD

Retail Sales Core (MoM)

Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair

Contract

USDINR

29-May-18

69.9000

68.9000

68.5000

67.9000

67.5000

66.9000

65.9500

GBPINR

29-May-18

93.8500

92.8500

92.3500

91.8500

91.3500

90.8500

89.8500

JPYINR

29-May-18

63.5500

62.5000

61.9000

61.5000

60.9000

60.5000

59.4500

EURINR

29-May-18

83.1000

81.8000

81.0000

80.4500

79.6500

79.1000

77.8000 Continued…….

21/05/2018

Market Next Week MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Aluminium

31-May-18

169.45

162.70

158.75

155.95

152.00

149.20

142.45

Copper

29-Jun-18

481.1

472

467.1

462.9

458

453.80

444.70

Crude Oil

21-May-18

5163

4996

4925

4829

4758

4662

4495

Gold

05-Jun-18

32630

31902

31496

31174

30768

30446

29718

Lead

31-May-18

170.20

164.90

161.80

159.60

156.50

154.30

149.00

Natural Gas

25-May-18

207.50

200.10

197.20

192.70

189.80

185.30

177.90

Nickel

31-May-18

1106

1046

1021

985

960

925

864

Silver

04-May-18

41964

41037

40616

40110

39689

39183

38256

Zinc

31-May-18

221.95

215.55

213.35

209.15

206.95

202.75

196.35

NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity

Contract

Castor Seed

18-May-18

4268

4154

4088

4040

3974

3926

3812

Chana

18-May-18

3882

3750

3669

3618

3537

3486

3354

Dhaniya

18-May-18

5143

4979

4880

4815

4716

4651

4487

COKUDAKL

18-May-18

1385

1335

1307

1284

1257

1234

1183

Guargum5

18-May-18

9116

8757

8530

8398

8171

8039

7680

Guarseed10

18-May-18

4168

4014

3926

3859

3771

3705

3550

Jeera

18-May-18

16970

16435

16095

15900

15560

15365

14830

RMseed

18-May-18

4146

4053

4014

3960

3921

3867

3774

Ref Soya Oil

18-May-18

795

783

778

771

767

760

748

Soyabean

18-May-18

4023

3896

3836

3769

3709

3642

3515

Turmeric

18-May-18

7848

7568

7406

7288

7126

7008

6728

Mentha Oil

31-May-18

1476

1394

1359

1313

1277

1231

1149

21/05/2018

MCX Fundamentals BULLION Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust the world's largest goldbacked investment fund steadied at 856.17 tonnes on Thursday with no change the lowest since April 5, after rising 3%, or 23.63 tonnes in 2017, while gold prices rose 13% last year.Technical parameter MACD signals momentum on weekly chart that shows dips are buying opportunities in the counter. For coming week perspective prices have key support near Rs.31240- 31280 that would keep the momentum going. On the higher side Rs.31620 is the previous swing top and a break above the same would lead to prices surging towards Rs.31850 level. Strength is visible on charts and one can take the benefit of the same by buying gold near Rs.31310- 31330 zone for target price of Rs.31600and next at Rs.31840 level while considering Rs.31240 as stop loss for the trade.

BASE METALS

The base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed with copper, lead and nickel prices up by 0.4%, 0.6% and 1.5% respectively with copper prices at 51,290 yuan ($8,053) per tonne, while aluminium and tin prices were down by 0.6% and zinc prices were down by 0.1%.Spot copper prices in Changing were up by 0.1% at 50,970-51,070 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.46.

ENERGY The energy counter remained a strong pick for the week amid solid fundamentals with bulls using every dip to enter longs. Prices gained more than 2.5 % for the week to settle at Rs.4793/bbl. Uptrend on both daily and weekly charts remains intact as prices have witnessed a breakout above the crucial hurdle of $70/bbl and look to continue with their upwards voyage. The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas inventories showing a buildup of 106 billion cubic feet in the week ending May 11, up from 89 billion in the previous reading while analysts expected a 105 billion buildup.

21/05/2018

NCDEX Fundamentals SPICES No strong movement was noted for Jeer but slight firm sentiments prevailed in mandis on lower arrivals as prices hovered near the psychological 16000 mark. Good monsoon reports once again capped the upside.The demand for the new crop is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming days. Turmeric prices weakened slightly Prices stabilized at the lower levels for Turmeric even as good and early arrival of monsoon reports kept pressure on prices as that would be good for the crop sowing. Rising demand on export and domestic front will support prices in coming weeks.

OILSEEDS Strength in palm oil and global markets helped soya oil in reviving the upward trend. In short term one can expect moderate gains in soya oil but considering that the USDA report released last week was perceived as neutral from price movement perspective possibility for a long lasting upside rally is ruled out currently. Soy bean found strong support at the 3750 mark amid recovery in International markets aided by steady demand in the domestic markets. Strength in RM seed was positive for soybean during early hours and the trend was supported also from consistent inquiries from soymeal exporters.

GUAR COMPLEX

Guar failed to recover with good monsoon reports continuously preventing a strong recovery in prices. Traders however anticipate the present rates to be on the lower side with strong further fall in prices being ruled out even if monsoon turns out to be normal.

OTHERS Traders anticipate RM seed prices to firm up further in the near term. Ongoing marriage season can help lifting trade sentiments in coming weeks. From a broader perspective bullish outlook soybean and palm oil higher import duty on mustard oil lowering arrivals and drop in the crop acreage shall keep the downside in check. Profit booking was noted for Mentha after the recent highs even as demand started rising at these lower levels.Rising demand on the export front amidst low arrivals had supported the market of late. However good crop sowing reports limited the uptrend. However supplies will start improving June onwards therefore futures are unlikely to sustain above 1400 mark as of now. 9

21/05/2018

Calls of the Week (MCX) SILVER Last week Silver started on negative note but found enough support near the level of 39600. We saw slight covering in it from the lower levels. It closed at 40195 with the overall loss of 0.85% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect positive movement from the lower levels due to formation of bullish candlestick pattern on the lower levels on daily chart.For this week, if Silver July Futures breaks the level of 40250 then it can test the level of 40750 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 40020

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action Entry Range

DETAILS Buy Above 40250

Target

40750

40020

COPPER On its weekly chart copper prices are trading on higher level with positive sentiment. And look like market settled above the level resistance of 450 and ready to higher to the level of 480 and then 490. On the upside it is having resistance at the level of 468 while near term support level placed at 462. One can make buy above the level of 468 for the target of 478 with maintain the stop loss of 462

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 468

Target

478

462

21/05/2018

Calls of the Week (NCDEX) RAMSEED For the current week June RM seed can trade with strong tone in case the contract fails to trade below 3850. On the other hand strong resistance will be seen between 4000 and 4030 levels. We expect the downtrend to be limited with summer season demand likely to rise in coming weeks. For this week June RM seed can trade with upward bias as long as stays comfortably above 4000. Strong resistance may be seen around 4150- 4200. One can buy the RMSEED with Stop loss of 3935

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action Entry Range

DETAILS Buy Above 4000

Target

4130

3935

GUARGUMS Prices kept trading weak for Guar as normal monsoon and its early arrival predictions by the IMD kept pressure on the market sentiments. Traders however anticipate the present rates to be on the lower side with strong further fall in prices being ruled out. Technically market is trading with negative sentiment. It is having important support the level of 8200, while resistance place between the level of 8300 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 8320. One can make the sell position below the level of 8200 with stop loss of 8325

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR Action

Entry Range

DETAILS Sell

Below 8200

Target

7990

8325

21/05/2018

Calls of the Week (FOREX) GBPINR Last week, GBPINR May Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 92.3550 but till the end of the week, most of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 91.8350 with the overall gain of 0.27% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its forming very good upside trend line on the charts and we can expect downside movement after the trend line breakout. For this week, if GBPINR May Futures breaks the level of 91.3900 then it can test the level of 90.7025 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 91.7625

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Sell

Above 91.3900

Target

90.7025

91.7625

EURINR Last week, EURINR May Futures started the week on positive note and after that it witnessed downside movement for the remaining part of the week. It made a low of 79.9075 during the week and closed at 80.2425 with the overall loss of 0.42% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its sustaining near to the major support level of 79.8725 with the negative RSI.For this week, if EURINR May Futures breaks the level of 80.0650 then it can test the level of 79.5125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 80.4125

WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR

Action

Entry Range

DETAILS

Buy

Above 61.8000

Target

62.3000

61.5000

21/05/2018

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All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. उपरोक्त सभी सूचना, स्तर और सुझाव, Ways2Capital के नवशेषज्ञ के पैनल द्वारा ककए गए तकनीकी और मौनलक अनुसध ं ान के आधार पर दी गई हैं, लेककन हम कदए गए सुझावों की त्रुरटयों के नलए कोई दानयत्व स्वीकार नहीं करते हैं | वेबसाइट के माध्यम से सर्फिंग करने वाले लोगों को अपनी पसंद के उत्पाद सेवाओं को चुनने का अनधकार है|

Any investment in Equity/commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer. इकिटी / कमोनडटी बाजार में कोई भी ननवेश जोनखम के अधीन होता है, कं पनी इन सुझावों पर ककए गए ककसी भी नुकसान के नलए उत्तरदायी नहीं होगी | यह स्तर भनवष्य के कीमतों की गनत का संकेत नहीं देते है| वेबसाइट के माध्यम से ककसी भी ब्राउजज़ग का अथा है अस्वीकरण की स्वीकृ नत।

DISCLOSURE ( प्रकटीकरण) : High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी कं पननयां अनुसंधान ररपोटा में शानमल कं पननयों के साथ कारोबार नहीं करती हैं और न ही ककसी भी तरह के उत्पादों / प्रनतभूनतयों के जारीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो यह सुनननित करता है कक नहतों के नलए कोई वास्तनवक या संभानवत संघषा नहीं है | ननयामक ननकाय के अनुपालन को सुनननित करने के नलए हमने यह तय ककया है कक कं पनी और उसके कोई भी प्रनतनननध बाज़ार में ट्रेड नहीं करेंगे।

Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को यह सलाह दी जाती है कक वे ररपोटा में दी गई जानकारी को के वल राय के रूप में देखें और ननवेश के नलए स्वयं िंै सला करें | ग्राहकों को वेबसाइट पर प्रकानशत सेवाओं के ननयमों और शतों को पढ़ने और समझने की भी सलाह दी जाती है | कं पनी के ननगमन के बाद ननयामक ननकाय द्वाराकं पनी के नखलािं कोई मुकदमा (यानचका) दायर नहीं ककया गया है।

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX ( प्रकटीकरण पररनशष्ट ) : The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. ररपोटा नवश्लेषकों द्वारा तैयार की गयी है जो द्वारा हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड द्वारा ननयुक्त हैं | इस ररपोटा में व्यक्त सभी नवचार कं पनी के बारे में व्यनक्तगत नवचारों को दशााता है और कं पननयों और उनकी प्रनतभूनतयां और क्षनतपूर्तत (मुआवजे) का कोई नहस्सा, या इस शोध ररपोटा में नननहत नवशेष सुझावों या नवचारों से प्रत्यक्ष या अप्रत्यक्ष रूप से संबंनधत नहीं होगा।

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (नहतों के संघषा के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ): (a) (अ) (b)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest; हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी में कोई नवत्तीय रुनच नहीं है और न ही इस तरह की नवत्तीय नहत की प्रकृ नत है|

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,

(ब)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगी या उनके ककसी भी तत्काल ररश्तेदार की नवषय कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों में एक प्रनतशत या उससे अनधक के वास्तनवक / िंायदेमंद स्वानमत्व नहीं हैं |

(c)

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोनगयों को अनुसंधान ररपोटा के प्रकाशन के समय या सावाजननक रूप से उपनस्थत होने के समय कोई अन्य भौनतक संघषा नहीं है|

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( क्षनतपूर्तत के संदभा में प्रकटीकरण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड की पॉनलसी अपने नवश्लेषकों, पेशेवरों को नवश्लेषक के क्षेत्र में ककसी भी कं पनी की प्रनतभूनतयों के स्वामी से नवश्लेषकों को ररपोटा करने से रोकती है। नवश्लेषक क्षनतपूर्तत : नवश्लेषक हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड के वेतन आधाररत स्थायी कमाचारी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के मामले में प्रकटीकरण ) : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (अ)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नपिले 12 महीनों में नवषय कं पनी से कोई मुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककया है |

(b)

The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

(ब)

अनुसंधान ररपोटा के नवतरण की नतनथ से पूवा बारह महीनों के दौरान नवषय कं पनी अब या कभी भी ग्राहक नहीं रही है।

(c )

High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;

(स)

हाई ब्रो माके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सलाहकार प्राइवेट नलनमटेड या उसके सहयोगीयों ने नवषय कं पनी के अनधकारी, ननदेशक या कमाचारी के रूप में कभी भी काम

21/05/2018