Commodity research report ways2capital 28 march 2016

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

101.60

101.10

100.60

100.30

100.10

99.80

99.60

99.10

98.60

COPPER

29 APR 2016

343.10

339.10

335.10

333.60

331.10

329.60

327.10

323.10

319.10

CRUDE OIL

19 APR 2016

2935

2838

2741

2699

2644

2602

2547

2450

2353

GOLD

05 APR 2016

29216

29001

28786

28692

28571

28477

28356

28141

27926

LEAD

29 APR 2016

122.60

121.20

119.80

119.20

118.40

117.85

117

115.60

114.20

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

135.80

132.8

129.80

128.40

126.80

125.40

123.80

120.80

117.80

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

604.70

598.70

592.70

590.50

586.70

584.50

580.70

574.70

568.70

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

37717

37393

37069

36869

36745

36545

36421

36097

35773

ZINC

29 APR 2016

126.50

124.50

122.50

121.40

120.50

119.45

118.45

116.50

114.50

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

107.90

105.50

103.10

101.60

100.70

99.20

98.30

95.90

93.50

COPPER

29 APR 2016

368.25

356.70

345.15

338.60

333.60

327.05

322.05

310.50

298.95

CRUDE OIL

19 APR 2016

3332

3116

2900

2779

2684

2563

2468

2252

2036

GOLD

05 APR 2016

31466

30576

29686

29142

28796

28252

27906

27016

26126

LEAD

29 APR 2016

136.55

131

125.35

122.05

119.80

116.45

114.15

108.55

103

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

151.80

144

136.20

131.60

128.40

123.80

120.30

112.80

105

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

. 641.80

623.50

605.20

596.80

586.90

578.50

568.60

550.30

532

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

42203

40533

38863

37766

37193

36096

35523

33853

32183

ZINC

29 APR 2016

138.15

132.65

127.15

123.80

121.65

118.30

116.15

110.65

105.15

Monday, 28 March 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD APR ABOVE 28525 TGT 28832 SL 28194

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL ZINC MAR BELOW 121 TGT 119 SL 123 - SL TRIGGERED SELL LEAD MAR BELOW 119 TGT 117 SL 121 - TGT

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

68.15

67.85

67.55

67.35

67.25

67.05

66.95

66.60

66.30

EURINR

27 APR 2016

76.30

75.95

75.60

75.40

75.25

75

74.90

74.55

74.15

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

96.90

96.40

95.90

95.55

95.40

95.05

94.85

94.35

93.85

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

61

60.55

60.10

59.80

59.60

59.30

59.15

58.70

58.25

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

68.7 0

68.20

67.65

67.40

67.15

66.90

66.65

66.15

65.60

EURINR

27 APR 2016

76.7 5

76.25

75.75

75.45

75.30

75

74.80

74.30

73.80

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

100. 75

99.05

97.40

96.35

95.75

94.65

94.10

92.45

90.80

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

6285

61.85

60.85

60.15

59.80

59.15

58.80

57.75

56.75

WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY GBPINR APR ABOVE 95.70 TGT 96.70 SL 94.90 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL EURINR MAR BELOW 74.55 TGT 73.80 SL 75.32 - NOT EXECUTED.


✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 APR 2016

642

638

634

632

630

628

626

622

618

SYBEANIDR

20 APR 2016

4255

4164

4073

4022

3982

3931

3891

3800

3709

RMSEED

20 APR 20165

4417

4284

4151

4092

4018

3959

3885

3752

3619

JEERAUNJHA

20 APR 2016

16450

16100

15750

15570

15400

15220

15050

14700

14350

CHANA

20 APR 2016

4609

4527

4445

4414

4363

4332

4281

4199

4117

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 APR 2016

684

666

648

639

630

621

612

594

576

SYBEANIDR

20 APR 2016

4783

4494

4205

4088

3916

3799

3627

3338

3049

RMSEED

20 APR 2016

4665

4439

4213

4123

3987

3897

3761

3535

3309

JEERAUNJHA

20 APR 2016

17545

16785

16025

15700

15265

14945

14505

13745

12985

CHANA

20 APR 2016

4751

4616

4481

4432

4346

4297

4211

4076

3941

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 7070 TGT 6900 SL 7303 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL JEERA APR BELOW 14800 TGT 14500 SL 15100 - NOT EXECUTED.


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍Bullion Silver market witnessed a volatile movement on Previous week wherein both Comex and MCX silver futures staged a strong rally after bombings in Brussles. However, the market failed to sustain its gains because of bearish fundamental factors, hence, it eroded the gains to end the day on a flat note. As of Wednesday morning, Comex silver futures for May delivery are trading at $15.82 per ounce, down by 0.41%. Gold futures closed little changed in the domestic market as investors and speculators stuck to a cautious stance after a top US Federal Reserve official signaled the possibility of an interest rate hike in the near-term, dimming the lure for the yellow metal as a store of value. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that another US rate hike may be round the corner, possibly in the Fed’s upcoming meet in April or June. Fed officials last week sounded more upbeat over the prospects of the US economy even in the wake of continued global uncertainty. Gold finished lower in the overseas market as talks of a renewed Fed rate hike in the near-term lifted the dollar, dampening the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. Gold may fall today after an upward revision in US fourth quarter growth to 1.4 per cent annualized pace from 1 per cent earlier signaled more optimism over the strength in the world’s biggest economy, bolstering the case for further rate tightening. At the MCX, Gold futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs 28,599 per 10 gram, down by 0.02 per cent after opening at Rs 28,500, against the previous closing price of Rs 28,604. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 28,450.the weakness in gold market was due to dovish outlook on Fed interest rate hike in 2016. The manufacturing PMI data from US released on Tuesday showed an improvement in US manufacturing sector thereby putting pressure on the gold market. Similarly, MCX gold futures also eroded the gains, however, ended slightly on a positive note

✍Base Metal Base metals prices declined sharply following indications of a hawkish stance by the US Fed and the possibility of a decision on the interest rate hikes in its scheduled meeting in April. If true, it would be a complete reversal in the Fed’s earlier dovish stance, with slower rise in interest rates. The base metals market took the hawkish indication as a surprise as the US economy continued to show turbulence with frequent change in performance. In fact, the latest data from the Commerce Department showed stronger US economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 than previously estimated. This triggered a broad-based sell-off in metals on a stronger US dollar against major global currencies as investors diverted their funds to US treasury for better returns. The extended weekend also helped bearish sentiment in base metals as trading corporates squared off their positions to show healthy books for the quarter ended March 2016. “Base metals prices declined sharply on Thursday due to the hawkish stance taken by the US Fed on the economy prompting thereby interest rate revisions in its meeting scheduled in April, the stance which seemed deferred earlier. That has helped strengthened the US dollar against major global currencies," said Naveen Mathur, Associate Director (Commodities and Currencies), Angel Broking. At LME, nickel showed some slight recovery, while copper remained flat. Aluminum and Lead shared equal percentage of losses. At MCX Nickel was the sole metal under green zone yesterday. With signals from the above mentioned two Fed Presidents about rising interest rates in April/ June meetings, dollar gained some momentum while the denominated commodities showed some slump. Apart from this, new aluminum plant is


expected to start by next year by the UAE and Singapore firms. Clive Palmer’s Queensland Nickel Refinery can face fines up to $2.60 million due to rising levels of ammonia in nearby waterways. Zinc futures tumbled by more than 2 per cent in the domestic market as investors and speculators exited positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand for zinc in the domestic spot market. Further, a decline in US business investment signaled a bleak demand outlook for industrial metals. Orders for US non-military goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, fell by 1.8 per cent in February 2016 over the previous month. At the MCX, Zinc futures for March 2016 contract closed at Rs 119.65 per kg, down by 2.09 per cent after opening at Rs 121.45, against the previous closing price of Rs 122.2. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 118.85.

✍Energy Natural gas futures fell in the domestic market as investors and speculators exited positions in the energy commodity after a rise in US storage levels signaled weak demand for the fuel in the world’s biggest natural gas consumer.The EIA reported that US gas supplies climbed by 15 billion cubic feet to 2.493 trillion cubic feet in the week ended March 18, 2016. The five-average average for the same week was a withdrawal of 24 billion cubic feet while stockpiles fell by 4 billion cubic feet a year ago. At the MCX, Natural Gas futures for March 2016 contract closed at Rs 120.8 per mmBtu, down by 0.90 per cent, after opening at Rs 121.2, against the previous closing price of Rs 121.9. It touched an intra day low of Rs 119. Crude oil prices Previous week showed mixed moves as the expectations from the inventory data suggests further swelling up of crude stocks and downfall in products side inventory levels. With better demand in the market for products side, especially for gasoline, inventory levels are getting hit as the output is also less due to seasonal maintenance. Gasoline prices in the United States showed huge recovery as more drivers are hitting road before the summer driving season. EIA has also forecasted that this year, gasoline consumption would be near their previous peak of 2007. Prices today are down during early morning session as the API inventory data showed massive crude stocks buildup

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS  The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is mulling the idea of introducing a new price discovery mechanism for the spot market, to ensure fairer pricing.An advisory committee of the market regulator is thinking of a price polling mechanism for all commodities and their derivatives, based on quality and quantity. A decision is likely at a meeting scheduled for the first week of April.The agri commodities market space is poorly managed as traders quote different prices. Commodity exchanges (comexes) are pushing the idea of uniform prices, similar to the prevailing derivatives market prices. Under the current mechanism, prices are collated from a number of physical market participants at various centres. The final settlement price is a part of the contract specification of the commodity.There is lack of transparency in the current mechanism. There are many participants with vested interest. For any derivative contract, it is necessary to have a linkage between the derivative price and underlying spot prices. The move was discussed at the first meeting of the Commodity Derivatives Market Advisory Committee in the first week of this month. Representatives from Sebi, commodity exchange officials and of the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority had met to


discuss revamp of the entire pooling mechanism in comexes. The main concern of the commodity space is that crop quality is not predictable. The new framework would ensure better accountability. Sebi has to keep a close watch on the physical markets to reduce difference between the polled and the actual spot price.Sebi is focusing on resolving the differences in price. There have been instances where exchanges have had to suspend trading in an agri commodity as the price on the futures platform was holding strong while falling in the spot market. The regulator recently banned 12 traders from dealing in the online commodity market, saying they were hoarding stocks in the exchange to manipulate prices. Typically, the data on spot prices is captured at the identified basis centres by inviting price quotes from empanelled polling participants.The committee is also mulling the possibility of encouraging minimum support prices (MSPs) for all commodities. It offers an assurance to farmers that their realisation will not fall below the stated price. Sources say the regulator is in talks with Food Corporation of India, the government's nodal agency of procurement of foodgrain under the price support schemes. ďƒ˜ Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today laid bare the priority of the government, saying agriculture will have to grow "fastest" for the country to get rid of poverty and push the overall GDP expansion. "If India is to grow and get rid of poverty, the agriculture sector has to grow the fastest... agriculture is critical to the economy," Jaitley said at a seminar on the recently-announced Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) at Nabard here. With two successive bad monsoons, the Finance Minister said a poor rainfall this year will put the "system to test". PMFBY, he said, will be rolled out in a "mission mode" from April to cover kharif or summer crop from this year itself. The scheme has the potential to reduce distress in the farm sector and "end the scar of farmer suicides" affecting parts of the country.

�Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 0.23 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 15,390 per quintal, up by 0.23 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,230 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,355. It touched the intraday high of Rs. 15,580. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries. Fears of crop damage after moderate rains in major producing regions supported the prices to trade higher while the increased arrivals due to peak season weighed on the market sentiments. Overall, jeera futures settled the day at Rs.15355/quintal, with marginal gains of 0.1% from previous trade. On spot market front, prices are hovering in the range of Rs.12125- 14750/quintal at Rajkot market and arrivals were reported at 176 tonnes, lower by 224 tonnes from previous arrivals. NCDEX accredited warehouses have 431 MT of valid stock and 176 MT of stock in process as on 22nd Mar 2016.

�Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.89 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,034 per quintal, up by 1.89 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,955 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,959. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,077.


�Turmeric Turmeric futures opened on flattish note, However, they traded in negative note for major parts of morning session tracking higher stocks in the market. They witnessed gains in the post lunch session as traders covered their short positions built during morning session. April contract closed the trade at Rs.8962/quintal, up by 0.8% from its previous close. At Erode, finger and bulb traded steady at Rs.9500-9700/quintal and at Rs.92009400/quintal respectively. Arrivals (tonnes) in major spot markets: Nizamabad-478.3, Duggirala-59, Cuddapah60.7. NCDEX accredited warehouses have 707 MT of valid stock and 339 MT of stock in process as on 22nd Mar 2016.

�Chana Chana prices closed higher 1.32 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,384 per quintal, up by 1.32 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,320 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,327. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,394. Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices. Commodity markets were closed on March 24 & March 25, 2016 on account of Holi and Good Friday, respectively. Due to rain in pulses growing region like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar traders has expected that arrival will be late. During February arrival of new Rabi pulses has been started coming in to the spot market due to which import of pulses has declined sharply. Arrival of new Chana has started in major markets of Rajasthan. After procuring 50,000 tonnes of Pulses for buffer stock, Central Government has asked the states to place their requirement so that the lentils can be offloaded in the market to check prices. The government has decided to import 20,000 tonnes of Pulses. Of which, the contracts have been finalised for 6,000 tonnes. According to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data, Canada exported 30,100 tonnes of peas but only 100 tonnes of lentils during the week ended 13 March.


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