Commodity research report ways2capital 11 april 2016

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

106.35

104.45

102.55

101.85

100.65

99.95

98.75

96.85

94.95

COPPER

29 APR 2016

316.45

313.60

310.65

309.45

307.75

306.55

304.90

302

299.05

CRUDE OIL

19 APR 2016

3091

2924

2757

2691

2590

2524

2423

2256

2089

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

29947

29646

29345

29238

29044

28937

28743

28442

28141

LEAD

29 APR 2016

117.45

116.10

114.75

114.10

113.40

112.75

112.05

110.70

109.35

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

146

142.10

138.20

136.10

134.30

132.20

130.40

126.50

122.60

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

608.20

595.70

583.20

578

570.70

565.50

558.20

545.70

533.20

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

38153

37604

37055

36862

36506

36313

35957

35408

34859

ZINC

29 APR 2016

122.55

120.70

118.90

118.05

117

1116.20

115.20

113.30

111.50

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

110.35

107.25

104.15

102.60

101.05

99.50

97.95

94.85

91.75

COPPER

29 APR 2016

349.20

336.45

323.70

315.95

310.95

303.20

298.20

285.45

272.70

CRUDE OIL

19 APR 2016

3448

3147

2846

2735

2545

2434

2244

1943

1642

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

31409

30560

29711

29421

28862

28572

28013

27164

26315

LEAD

29 APR 2016

126.60

122.50

118.40

115.95

114.30

111.85

110.20

106.10

102

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

165.20

154.30

143.40

138.70

132.50

127.70

121.60

110.70

99..80

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

. 643.90

618

592.10

582.50

566.20

556.60

540.30

514.40

488.50

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

39751

38603

37455

37063

36307

35915

35159

34011

32863

ZINC

29 APR 2016

141.40

133.90

126.40

121.80

118.90

114.30

111.40

103.90

96.40

Monday, 11 April 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD JUN ABOVE 29302 TGT 29619 SL 28988 SELL NICKEL APR BELOW 560 TGT 530 SL 591

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY ZINC APR ABOVE 124 TGT 126 SL 121.90 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

67.45

67.20

66.95

66.80

66.70

66.60

66.45

66.20

66

EURINR

27 APR 2016

77.70

77.15

76.60

76.30

76

75.70

75.45

74.90

74.35

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

96.05

95.40

94.70

94.40

94.05

73.75

93.40

92.70

72.05

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

64.10

63.20

62.30

61.95

61.45

61.05

60.55

59.65

58.75

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

68.5 0

67.85

67.25

67

66.65

66.35

66.05

65.40

64.80

EURINR

27 APR 2016

78.5 0

77.65

76.80

76.40

75.95

75.55

75.10

74.25

73.40

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

98

96.75

95.50

94.80

94.25

93.55

93

91.75

90.50

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

68

65.65

63.30

62.40

60.95

60.05

58.60

56.20

53.85

WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY GBPINR APR ABOVE 94.95 TGT 95.95 SL 93.98 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL JPYINR APR BELOW 59.30 TGT 58.70 SL 60.10 - NOT EXECUTED. BUY USDINR APR ABOVE67 TGT 67.60 SL 66.40 - NOT EXECUTED.


✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 MAY 2016

691

682

673

669

664

660

655

646

637

SYBEANIDR

20 MAY 2016

4376

4297

4218

4169

4139

4090

4060

3981

3902

RMSEED

20 MAY 2016

4802

4704

4606

4545

4508

4447

4410

4312

4214

JEERAUNJHA

20 MAY 2016

18015

17470

16925

16605

16380

16060

15835

15290

14745

CHANA

20 MAY 2016

5386

5275

5164

5094

5053

4983

4942

4831

4720

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 MAY 2016

725

705

685

675

665

655

645

625

605

SYBEANIDR

20 MAY 2016

4649

4488

4327

4223

4166

4062

4005

3844

3683

RMSEED

20 MAY 2016

5338

5039

4740

4612

4441

4313

4142

3843

3544

JEERAUNJHA

20 MAY 2016

18665

17870

17080

16680

16295

15895

15505

14715

13925

CHANA

20 MAY 2016

5909

5602

5295

5160

4988

4853

4681

4374

4067

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY JEERA MAY ABOVE 16700 TGT 17000 SL 16290 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SEL REFSOYA MAY BELOW 657 TGT 650 SL 667.10 - SL SELL TMC MAY BELOW 8130 TGT 7860 SL 8453 - NOT EXECUTED.


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS �Bullion Gold jumped almost two percent on Thursday as the dollar fell to a 17- month low against the Japanese yen following minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting and global shares fell, rekindling investor appetite for safer assets. Gold prices dropped on Friday on account of profit booking by traders as prices had earlier surged on expectations that any rate hikes by the Fed will be gradual based on comments from Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen. Prices had surged ahead of a public appearance by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen after the close of trading, as investors digested dovish indications from the Fed's March minutes that the US central bank will remain cautious with the timing of its next interest rate hike. At the MCX, Gold futures for June 2016 contract is trading at Rs 28,990 per 10 gram, down by 0.24 per cent after opening at Rs 29,145, against the previous closing price of Rs 29,060. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 28,955. (At 12.40 PM today). Further, a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. Stronger greenback makes the bullion expensive for those holding other currencies, thus reducing demand. Investors remained bearish on gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as they pulled out Rs 903 crore from this instrument last fiscal, making it the third consecutive financial year of outflow. The pace of outflow, however, slowed down in the 2015-16 fiscal ended March 31, as against the preceding two years on account of sluggish equity market. According to the latest data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), Gold ETFs witnessed a net outflow of Rs 903 crore last fiscal, compared to an outflow of Rs 1,475 crore in the preceding financial year. In 2013-14, the funds witnessed outflow of Rs 2,293 crore. The asset base of gold funds dropped to Rs 6,346 crore in March 2016 from Rs 6,665 crore at the end of March 2015. "Gold prices had a good run until 2012 and investors bought gold chasing the historical returns from gold. As gold corrected, investors were disappointed and thereby exited out of gold. "Equities saw a good run up from September 2013 onward and sentiment towards equities improved thereby driving flows /shift from other asset markets to equities," Quantum AMC Senior Fund Manager (Alternative Investments) Chirag Mehta said.However, the pace of outflows has slowed down, as most of the return chasing disappointed investors seem to have exited from gold ETFs, he added.The demand for gold ETFs has been steadily falling in the past few years. These products have seen outflow as gold prices are correcting and equities have given good returns to investors. Retail investors have been putting in more money into equity and debt mutual funds in the last financial year.Equity and equity-linked saving schemes saw an infusion of over Rs 74,000 crore and debt funds attracted nearly Rs 20,000 crore. Overall, mutual fund schemes have witnessed an inflow of Rs 1.34 lakh crore during the period under review. "With the recovery in prices (positive short term performance) the return chasing types may come back," he added. The mutual fund sector has 14 gold-based schemes, which have been in the market since 2006-07.

�Energy Crude Oil prices jumped six per cent on Friday, heading for the largest weekly gain in a month, as draw downs in US crude stockpiles fed hopes that a punishing global oversupply may be approaching a tipping point after nearly two years. Brent crude futures were up $2.39 at $41.82 a barrel by 1:17 pm EDT (1717 GMT), hitting a session high above $42. The shutdown of the Keystone crude pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma has supported prices this week. Crude also drew support when Russia said its crude output fell in April, as major oil producing countries prepared to meet in Doha on April 17 to freeze production. US gasoline and diesel prices rallied more


than five per cent each. US crude this year has drawn support from cheap gasoline pump prices and benign driving weather. Ultra low sulfur diesel, also known as heating oil, rebounded this week on seasonally cold weather forecasts through late April. Brent crude futures were up $2.39 at $41.82 a barrel by 1:17 p.m. EDT (1717 GMT), hitting a session high above $42. US crude futures rose by $2.28 to $39.53 a barrel. Earlier, it rose to nearly $40.For the week, both benchmarks were on track to gain about 8 per cent, their most since the week ended March 4. “We are starting to draw crude inventories in the US" said Scott Shelton, energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. “Run rates are rising and US production is falling." Crude oil futures jumped by more than 2 per cent during noon trade in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators anticipated the weekly US rig count data which will offer cues over near-to-medium term production in the US. A surprise draw in US crude stockpiles last week and a drop in output by 14,000 barrels a day to 9.01 million barrels per day has eased worries of oversupplies. A dip in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits last week by 9,000 to 267,000, signals that a recovery in the labour market of the world’s biggest economy remains on a solid footing, signaling an improved demand outlook for the fuel, supporting sentiment. At the MCX, crude oil futures for April 2016 contract were trading at Rs. 2,538 per barrel, up by 2.46 per cent, after opening at Rs. 2,489 against the previous closing price of Rs. 2,478. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 2,547 till the trading

✍Base Metal Copper fell 3 percent to its lowest in a month on Thursday as concerns over demand from major consumer China helped push the metal through key chart support, triggering further selling. Four traders of copper, including two from state-owned Chinese smelters, said they expect China to raise its copper exports, unleashing some of its near-record high stockpiles of the metal onto the global market. Any lingering hopes of significant copper output cuts to offset slow demand growth from China . The price of Copper in the commodity market rose during noon trade as the metal is expected to be in shortage at the year-end as cooling investments mean no major mines are built this year. Copper is also considered to be a precious metal these days. Unlike the last few surplus years, Copper is predicted to be below the inventory level which was supposed to be in accordance with the previous years. Copper also got a uplift from a decline in the dollar, which boosts the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. At the MCX, Copper is currently trading at Rs. 307.80 (at 2:28 pm today) after opening at Rs. 307.50. The metal touched an intra-day high of Rs. 308.7 and low of Rs. 306.6. The commodity was closed at Rs. 306.6 on the previous day. Nickel prices drifted by 0.28% to Rs 571.50 per kg in futures trading today as traders reduced positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on sluggish demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in April declined by Rs 1.60, or 0.28% to Rs 571.50 per kg in a business turnover of 1,224 lots. On similar lines, metal for delivery in May traded lower by Rs 1.40, or 0.24% to Rs 577.50 per kg in 27 lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade was mostly on weak trend at spot market on subdued demand from alloy-makers but metal's gain overseas, capped the losses. Lead futures fell 0.75 per cent to 113.20 per kg today as a result of low demand for the commodity from battery-maker in the spot market in the midst of weak overseas trend. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the April 2016 contract, is trading at 113.20 per kg, down by 0.75 per cent, after opening at Rs 113.85, against a previous close of Rs 114.05. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 113.05 till the trading. (At 3.20 PM today). However, losses were limited due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME lead stocks fell by 625 metric tonnes to 156075 metric tonnes as on April 8, 2016.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS 

Oil meals export dropped 52 per cent to 1.18 million tonnes (mt) in 2015-16, against 2.46 mt the previous year, due to a sharp fall in soyabean shipments, the Solvent Extractors' . In value terms, export fell 65 per cent to Rs 1,510 crore, compared to Rs 4,298 crore in 2014-15. Lower production of soyabean, coupled with high price in the domestic market resulted in to drastic fall in crushing, leading to disparity in export of soybean meal.Exports to South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia drastically reduced in 2015-16 due to price disparity, owing to severe competition from other origins, including China and Argentina.India lost the Vietnam market for soyabean meal due to stiff competition and increased availability from domestic crushing of imported soyabean, the SEA statement said.Iran has shifted soyabean meal buying from India to other countries, while Bangladesh has moved to import of soyabean for domestic crushing.Soyabean meal exports has dropped to 70,820 tonnes in 2015-16, from 6,59,593 tonnes last year.Exports to other destinations like Thailand and Taiwan also dropped during the 2015-16

Spices Board has tightened rules of sampling for jeera (cumin) exports after receiving several representations from importing countries on adulteration and inferior quality shipments from Gujarat.With an immediate effect, the board has published a circular on April 6 and tightened the rules related to sampling and certification.In a circular Spices Board said, "After receiving several complaints from importing countries the board has decided to tighten the rules to protect reputation of India." As per the new rules, sampling intimation shall be placed one day prior to the proposed sampling date. The certificate shall be issued by the Spice Board based on the undertaking on the day of packaging.Moreover, stuffing is not allowed without the presence of customs and central excise officials. According to jeera traders, the move taken by the Spices Board is good for the industry as it would restrict adultery.An Unjha based Jeera exporter said, "India has received complaints related to quality. The board has taken correct steps and this will beneficial for the entire industry."There shall be random sampling at customs area at Mundra port by the Spices Board for confirmatory testing of the consignments. With this the Board will start surveillance and inspection at the stuffing area, Mundra poart, Unjha and Rajkot during April and May. Spice Board in a circular, exporters of jeera and other seed spices requested to follow the rules and regulations.Meanwhile, on the back of good domestic as well as export demand, jeera prices have gone up by Rs 40 to Rs 2,800-3,250 per 20 kg at the Unjha market in Gujarat. Arrival of jeera is around 45,000 bags (40 kg bags) per day.

✍ Jeera During Friday’s trading session, jeera futures traded down as investors booked profit at existing levels. Huge volatility witnessed during the day and made a high of Rs.16700 per quintal and a low of Rs.16155 per quintal. However, prices resumed to downtrend on active selling on gains. Hence jeera May contract traded down by 2.2% at Rs.16260 per quintal On spot market front, at Unjha market prices hovered in the range of Rs.1105517825 per quintal The total arrivals reported at Rajkot market were 168 tonnes. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 2002 tonnes and 542 MT are under process as on 8 April 2016. Jeera prices closed lower by 1.8 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At


the NCDEX, jeera futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 16,115 per quintal, down by 1.8 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,400 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,410. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 16,085.

�RM Seed Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.89 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,431 per quintal, down by 0.89 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,455 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,471. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,423.

�Chana Chana prices closed lower by 0.94 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 5,057 per quintal, down by 0.94 per cent, after opening at Rs. 5,114 against the previous closing price of Rs. 5,105. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 5,037.Last week we have witnesses good rally in prices, that is why on Friday we witnessed profit booking, The government has purchased 50,000 tonnes of tur and urad in 2015 kharif season and is in the process of buying masoor and other dals in the rabi season. As per the agriculture ministry's second estimate, pulse production is estimated at 17.33 million tonnes (mt) in 2015-16 crop year (July-June), which is marginally higher than the previous year's production of 17.15 mt. As per sources, government has asked to buy Rabi pulses from 7th March onward but due to nonseasonal rain it has been delayed. Due to rain in many places quality of pulses has been affected. From Madhya Pradesh the arrival has augmented 5 times and also from Maharashtra the arrival has increased, however from Rajasthan arrival has declined against last year.


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