Commodity research report ways2capital 07 july 2015

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

113

112

111

109

108

107

106

105

104

31 AUG 2015 382

381

380

379

377

376

375

374

373

CRUDE OIL

20 JUL 2015 3620 3600

3580

3540

3520

3500

3480

3460

3440

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 2655 26500 0

26450

26400

26350

26300

26250

26200

26150

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

110

109

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

182

180

178

176

174

172

170

168

166

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

790

786

782

778

774

770

766

762

758

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 3670 36600 0

36500

36400

36300

36200

36100

36000

35900

131

130

129

128

127

126

125

ALUMINIUM COPPER

ZINC

31 JUL 2015

31 JUL 2015 133

132

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 JUL 2015

116

114

112

109

107

105

102

100

98

COPPER

31 AUG 2015

386

383

380

377

374

371

369

366

363

20 JUL 2015 3630

3600

3570

3540

3510

3490

3460

3430

3400

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 26700 26600

26500

26400

26300

26200

26100

26000

25900

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

121

119

117

115

112

110

108

106

104

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

188

185

182

179

176

173

169

166

163

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

810

800

790

780

770

760

750

740

730

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 37100 36900

36700

36400

36200

36000

35800

35600

35400

CRUDE OIL


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

590

588

586

584

582

580

578

576

575

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

3680

3572

3464

3396

3356

3288

3248

3140

3032

RMSEED

20 JUL 2015

4517

4425

4333

4277

4241

4185

4149

4057

3965

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2015

17576 17076

16576

16243

16076 15743 15576 15076

14576

CHANA

20 JUL 2015

4525

4451

4377

4343

4303

4269

4229

4155

4081

CASTORSEED

20 JUL 2015

4249

4193

4137

4108

4081

4052

4025

3969

3913

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

593

590

587

584

581

579

576

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

599

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

3965

3757

3549

3439

3341

3231

3133

2925

2717

RMSEED

20 JUL 2015

4727

4569

4411

4316

4253

4158

4095

3937

3779

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2015

19263 18238

17213

16561

16188 15536 15163 14138

13113

CHANA

20 JUL 2015

4707

4574

4441

4375

4308

4242

4175

4042

3909

CASTORSEED

20 JUL 2015

4429

4319

4209

4144

4099

4034

3989

3879

3769

596


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � BULLION Spot silver prices in the international markets declined by 0.57 percent and closed at $15.67/oz.Last week, spot silver prices in the international markets traded lower in line with weakness in gold prices ,Strengthening dollar also acted as a negative factor for oil prices In the international markets, spot gold prices declined by 0.6 percent last week and closed at $1167.44/oz. On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.65 percent last week and closed at Rs.26352/10 gms. Spot gold prices traded negative last week although data showed the U.S. labor market was weaker in June than expected, indicating that the Federal Reserve may hold off from raising interest rates in September. The market was also following developments in the Greek debt crisis, which has so far failed to trigger strong retail demand for the metal, which is often perceived as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened and hopes for progress in the Greek crisis revived after the country told international creditors Athens could accept their bailout offer if some conditions were changed. Good ADP data from the US also resulted in optimism about labor market in turn exerting downside pressure on the yellow metal. The chairman of the Euro-group said it was too late to extend Greece's existing bailout and that the country's stance toward its creditors and euro zone partners would have to change before a new program could be agreed. The referendum on Sunday said no to the austerity measures proposed by the creditors which would result in stronger dollar and weak euro. A decade after China kicked off a series of gold market reforms, plans to establish a yuan price fix mark one of Beijing's biggest step so far to capitalism on the country's position as the world's top producer and a leading consumer. While no immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, the benchmark could ultimately give Asia more power over bullion trade, particularly if the yuan becomes fully convertible, industry sources say. In other news from the gold industry, the Reserve Bank of India and the finance ministry are in talks to scrap bulk import license for a gold-silver alloy used by domestic refiners, months after relaxing curbs on gold imports.

� CRUDE OIL Last week, NYMEX crude oil prices declined by 4.53 percent and closed at Rs.56.93/bbl ,On the MCX, crude prices declined by 7.73 percent and closed at Rs.3520/bbl. Last week oil prices traded lower as latest data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes. The firm said the number of rigs drilling for oil rose by 12 this week, the first rise since December. But with the Greek debt crisis unresolved and Iran nuclear talks ongoing, coupled with Friday's Fourth of July holiday making for a longer-than-usual weekend, some caution prevailed, limiting the rally. The sell off was a jolt to crude traders and investors who have seen U.S. prices in fairly


tight trading ranges over the past 10 weeks versus sharper moves down in European oil. Oil prices declined on Thursday with WTI and Brent falling by 4.2 and 2.5 percent respectively. It is the biggest daily drop since April after oil stockpiles in the United States rose for the first time in more than two months. With U.S. refined fuel trading leading the rally on bets for strong summer demand, even as Greece's move toward a debt default threatened to jolt global markets. The extension of a deadline for a nuclear deal that will let Iran export more crude into an oversupplied market was another bearish factor the market overlooked. U.S. crude oil production rose 9,000 barrels a day to 9.701 million barrels a day in April, the highest since May 1971, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in monthly data released Tuesday. Technology for tapping shale oil has helped the U.S. unlock vast reserves of crude that were previously inaccessible, boosting production.

� COPPER MCX copper declined by 0.1 percent to close at Rs.370/kg in the last week despite Rupee appreciation. LME Copper prices declined last week by 0.5 percent on concerns that Greece will default on its debts and exit the euro zone kept global investors wary and hurt the risk sentiments in the markets. Apart from Greece concerns, dollar also gained aground from strong US consumer confidence data and exerted further pressure on dollar denominated base metals. Comment by Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer that "tentative" signs of wage growth and continued job creation gave him confidence that US labor markets would continue to improve, and gradually help push inflation towards the Fed's 2 per cent target. EIA Crude inventories rose 2.4 million barrels to 465.4 million in the week to June 26. Gasoline stocks fell 1.8 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 392,000 barrels

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � Indian agri markets Near term trend depends on the rainfall activities in the growing states as conflation reports emerge on the monsoon for the month of july. Short term trend is likely to remain volatile for agri commodities with Indian markets unable to recover strongly as rains persist. However when skies clear up, markets are likely to recover strongly with demand expected to rise significantly at these low rates.A moderately bearish sentiment continued to prevail for the Agri commodities as rains in Central, North and North-West India kept pressure on the market sentiments.However, prices do seem to find some support at these lower levels and the near term trend depends on the rainfall activities in the growing states as conflicting reports emerge on the Monsoon for the month of July.Sentiments weakened for Chana as rains in kharif Pulses growing areas and reports of Govt likely to hold meeting next week on controlling prices, kept trend down for the commodity. But with prices having fallen a lot, some moderate recovery too is not ruled out as demand picks up in mandis. Prices fell for Jeera as low export demand amidst moderate arrivals in mandis kept sentiments weak for the counter.


✍ Refined soya oil Supported by rising demand at the spot market, refined soya oil prices rose by 0.26 per cent to Rs 586.50 per 10 kg in futures trading on Friday.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 1.55, or 0.26 per cent to Rs 586.50 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 2,17,155 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in October contracts edged higher by Rs 1.45, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 572.50 per 10 kg in 72,645 lots.The rise in refined soya oil prices to positions built up by speculators, powered by firm demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts.

✍ Castorseed Castor seed futures traded lower at the NCDEX in the midst of weak trend at spot markets due to slackened demand at prevailing levels. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for aug 2015 contract was closed at 4079 down by 0.55 per cent. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4053 till the trading. Weak trend at the markets due to absence of buying support at prevailing levels against increased supplies in the market, mainly dragged down the castor seed prices at futures trade. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices fell 0.77 per cent to Rs 16,065 per quintal in futures trade on friday today amid higher supplies from producing belts at the spot market.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in July contracts fell by Rs 125, or 0.77 per cent, to Rs 16,065 per quintal with an open interest of 14,136 lots.Similarly, the spice for delivery in August traded lower by Rs 115, or 0.70 per cent, to Rs 16,215 per quintal in 15,612 lots.Before that Jeera prices were up 1.07 per cent to Rs 16,105 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday after speculators widened positions, triggered by restricted supplies from growing regions.Firm demand at the spot market also influenced jeera prices.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in July shot up by Rs 170, or 1.07 per cent to Rs 16,105 per quintal with an open interest of 16,869 lots.The spice for delivery in August contracts gained Rs 150, or 0.93 per cent to Rs 16,290 per quintal in 13,416 lots.Offloading of positions by speculators, triggered by higher supplies from producing belts in the physical market, kept pressure on jeera prices at futures trade.

✍ Chana Extending losses for the second straight day, chana prices drifted down by 1.66 per cent to Rs 4,159 per quintal in futures trade today on offloading of positions by speculators.Higher supplies from producing belts at the spot market only added to the fall.At the National


Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July dropped by Rs 70, or 1.66 per cent, to Rs 4,159 per quintal with an open interest of 67,860 lots.Similarly, the commodity for delivery in August contracts traded lower by Rs 59, or 1.36 per cent, to Rs 4,269 per quintal in 1,70,270 lots.Where as on Wednesday Chana prices jumped 1.92% to Rs 4,245 per quintal infutures trade mostly powered by rising demand at the physical markets.Moreover, expectations of lower output this year also supported the upward movement.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in July spurted by Rs 80, or 1.92% to Rs 4,245 per quintal with an open interest of 97,460 lots.Similarly, the commodity for delivery in August contracts shot up by Rs 50, or 1.16% to Rs 4,345 per quintal in 1,62,490 lots.Trimming of positions by speculators, triggered by higher supplies from producing belts, mainly kept pressure on chana prices.

� Mustard seed Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.38 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.


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